First Buzz: 2022 Bowman Draft baseball cards

[Midi]

Originally Posted by crpav

Breakers, flippers and “investors broke the hobby. Yet it will still keep going. Break after break still fills. Look, I get caught up in it too but why and how are so many still burning money like this?

I dont know mate. I havnt bought wax in years. Dont get me wrong, I LOVE me some wax, and buy an occasional blaster - and sometimes I get a pack in my package from a break (got a Topps Debut pack the other day).

But now, I just buy singles of prospects I like for the future in bulk, JRod, Wander, Kelenic were so successful for me, I kept doing that. Now Im locked and loaded on _______, _______, _______, _______ and _______ (lol).

My biggest head scratcher is Topps Chrome, Stadium Club breaks that people spend on. I watch case after case of breaks with autos from seemingly no name players. Like $5 auto after $5 auto for the majority, with an occasional absolute monster card. I find myself saying "Well that was a bloodbath" on alot of those videos - or thinking it. But if people are enjoying them and having fun with it, cool. I just like more of a super high floor with all my purchases now - even on singles of prospects!

[Midi]

Originally Posted by CardChasing

I just heard same last night $380 to LCS's this year vs $111 last year. Guess I won't be buying much if any this year.

For a box????Hobby or Jumbo? Wow.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Midi

For a box????Hobby or Jumbo? Wow.

There is only jumbo (3 autos) and super jumbo (5 autos).

Jumbo is $380 factory direct. I believe super jumbo is $500+.

Fanatopps is printing money, literally.

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

There is only jumbo (3 autos) and super jumbo (5 autos).

Jumbo is $380 factory direct. I believe super jumbo is $500+.

Fanatopps is printing money, literally.

Holy cow.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[pacman099]

I hope the print runs aren't increasing significantly

[bd3d86]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Apparently, direct cost from topps was $380 this year.

They are tired of getting pushed around and finally realized it's time to get a piece of their own, three years too late.

No more stimulus packages for investorz from the card companies.

Yeah, I was just going to post this. Talked to my LCS over the weekend and the direst cost jumped to $3000. I think it was $2000 last year. Anyway, several long time buyers are out at that price. Obviously, they wouldn't be $3000 in the shop as they need to make a little bit on the case.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by bd3d86

Yeah, I was just going to post this. Talked to my LCS over the weekend and the direst cost jumped to $3000. I think it was $2000 last year. Anyway, several long time buyers are out at that price. Obviously, they wouldn't be $3000 in the shop as they need to make a little bit on the case.

I hear factory direct for 2023 topps is going to be over $100/box as well.

Many stores are not going to survive this, increasing direct box prices combined with fewer customer dollars to spend spells disaster.

If this keeps up, our hobby landscape will look very different in a few years - only mainstream breakers and direct orders from fanatopps.

Flippers and case sitters are going to have a heck of a time trying to find yield.

[clocsta2323]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

I hear factory direct for 2023 topps is going to be over $100/box as well.

Many stores are not going to survive this, increasing direct box prices combined with fewer customer dollars to spend spells disaster.

If this keeps up, our hobby landscape will look very different in a few years - only mainstream breakers and direct orders from fanatopps.

Flippers and case sitters are going to have a heck of a time trying to find yield.

Good riddance honestly, with the exception of honest, non price-gouging LCSs in existence you can probably count on both hands. Everyone got fat who could buy direct the past 2 years. Sayonara!

[KhalDrogo]

This is Fanatics’ way of eliminating the LCS without having to take the blame for it. Jack up direct prices to a level they know most LCS can’t afford. Watch the LCS fade away because there’s no margin on retail, no affordable hobby, and not enough interest in singles to keep the shop alive.

[oldgoldy97]

And all this crap seems to ship from Florida. Doesn’t get much farther away.

[reddragonthe]

Best part of all of it is like the trend of the last 3 years… it is highly likely, IMO, that relative to the average expected autos, some bigger names will be SP’d autos and some of the less exciting guys will be hyper printed. It isn’t just volume increases we’ve seen in the last 3-5 years and increases to direct costs… it’s also a continued watered down version of the product.

They’ve deflected a little of that criticism by increasing the parallel volume so perception hasn’t been hit as hard, but I would bet there are some guys with 5-9x the volume of autos in 2022 draft compared to others. And a good bet is the guys with less are the ones you want.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

This is Fanatics’ way of eliminating the LCS without having to take the blame for it. Jack up direct prices to a level they know most LCS can’t afford. Watch the LCS fade away because there’s no margin on retail, no affordable hobby, and not enough interest in singles to keep the shop alive.

Based on what happened to panini in 2009, what I can see happening is that in the future, if you want a new product on release day, you will pay the breaker rate directly from fanatics, or you will gamble on breaks.

After 3-6 months, when the breakers are done with a product, fanatics will discount any unsold bulk wax to the secondary market at a reduced price. Thus, hobby shops will be able to carry “new” product, and at a potentially lower cost, but 3-6 months after release. This will primarily consist of junk or crappy product. Any “hot” product, if you don’t pay the breaker rate, will be sold out at high prices via the fanatics website or via breaking.

There will no longer be steals/deals, unless a heavily discounted product all of a sudden becomes hot a year or two later.

Tough times for those who want hot wax immediately.

[erock28]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Based on what happened to panini in 2009, what I can see happening is that in the future, if you want a new product on release day, you will pay the breaker rate directly from fanatics, or you will gamble on breaks.

After 3-6 months, when the breakers are done with a product, fanatics will discount any unsold bulk wax to the secondary market at a reduced price. Thus, hobby shops will be able to carry “new” product, and at a potentially lower cost, but 3-6 months after release. This will primarily consist of junk or crappy product. Any “hot” product, if you don’t pay the breaker rate, will be sold out at high prices via the fanatics website or via breaking.

There will no longer be steals/deals, unless a heavily discounted product all of a sudden becomes hot a year or two later.

Tough times for those who want hot wax immediately.

As a small, 1-2 personal collection case breaker/set builder, I would LOVE if this actually happened. The only thing that changes for me is the breaking calendar. If my options are ripping Bowman in April at $4/case or November at $2K, it's a no brainer. Very few products are both hot and relatively limited to sell out via breakers/Fanatics at current prices. I say let the gambling junky crazies get their fix at filet mignon prices - those that don't rip to flip or for the gamble can get the same fix paying for hamburgers. It's a good model for Fanatics - cut out the distributors and get fat on the release day hype, accept smaller margins down the road and don't let excess product pile up.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by erock28

As a small, 1-2 personal collection case breaker/set builder, I would LOVE if this actually happened. The only thing that changes for me is the breaking calendar. If my options are ripping Bowman in April at $4/case or November at $2K, it's a no brainer. Very few products are both hot and relatively limited to sell out via breakers/Fanatics at current prices. I say let the gambling junky crazies get their fix at filet mignon prices - those that don't rip to flip or for the gamble can get the same fix paying for hamburgers. It's a good model for Fanatics - cut out the distributors and get fat on the release day hype, accept smaller margins down the road and don't let excess product pile up.

Unfortunately, as a small fry, something like bowman draft will never fall down to you or the public at a “discounted” price.

You will be getting products like topps flagship, heritage and topps big league.

[erock28]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Unfortunately, as a small fry, something like bowman draft will never fall down to you or the public at a “discounted” price.

You will be getting products like topps flagship, heritage and topps big league.

Hey now, let this small fry dream big!

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by erock28

Hey now, let this small fry dream big!

You can dream big, like being able to get all the topps big league baseball wax that you want at a discounted price!

That bowman draft, however, will still cost you $600/box. Firm.

[Pacmeyer]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Unfortunately, as a small fry, something like bowman draft will never fall down to you or the public at a “discounted” price.

You will be getting products like topps flagship, heritage and topps big league.

I'm sure everything will eventually be offered at a discount by Fanatics like getting 25% off after prices are hiked 30%.

[hermanotarjeta]

This may be the first time in history where sitting on a bowman draft case is no longer a no-brainer as your acquisition price has skyrocketed. Not much meat left on the bone.

[Stech36]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

This is Fanatics’ way of eliminating the LCS without having to take the blame for it. Jack up direct prices to a level they know most LCS can’t afford. Watch the LCS fade away because there’s no margin on retail, no affordable hobby, and not enough interest in singles to keep the shop alive.

If I owned an LCS, now would be the time to sell. Actually it was probably a year ago, but this might be the last chance.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Stech36

If I owned an LCS, now would be the time to sell. Actually it was probably a year ago, but this might be the last chance.

It’s gonna be tough for shops as the days of making $10-$20 per box will be back rather than $400-$500/box.

[Pacmeyer]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

This may be the first time in history where sitting on a bowman draft case is no longer a no-brainer as your acquisition price has skyrocketed. Not much meat left on the bone.

Preorder for super jumbo is up 100 from a store I bought from previously. The year before it was up 200 a box so price hikes for consumers at least are actually slowing down, if only because they were already sky high.

[Hail2TheVictors]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

It’s gonna be tough for shops as the days of making $10-$20 per box will be back rather than $400-$500/box.

And honestly, it's been a long time coming.

Knowing what boxes cost direct from Topps/Panini, it's absolutely stupid how much card shops (who have direct accounts) have been making from the allocation they get from Topps/Panini.

Time to really earn that dollar.

[imbluestreak23]

Captain obvious says quality will suck again

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

This may be the first time in history where sitting on a bowman draft case is no longer a no-brainer as your acquisition price has skyrocketed. Not much meat left on the bone.

There is no meat.

What you eat from Fanatics immediately gives you colon cancer.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Based on what happened to panini in 2009, what I can see happening is that in the future, if you want a new product on release day, you will pay the breaker rate directly from fanatics, or you will gamble on breaks.

After 3-6 months, when the breakers are done with a product, fanatics will discount any unsold bulk wax to the secondary market at a reduced price. Thus, hobby shops will be able to carry “new” product, and at a potentially lower cost, but 3-6 months after release. This will primarily consist of junk or crappy product. Any “hot” product, if you don’t pay the breaker rate, will be sold out at high prices via the fanatics website or via breaking.

There will no longer be steals/deals, unless a heavily discounted product all of a sudden becomes hot a year or two later.

Tough times for those who want hot wax immediately.

Price discrimination like this is commonplace in a lot of industries....most notably apparel. Only thing I disagree with is I think Fanatics will print enough of the quality/hot releases that they are available at discount eventually.