Best Investment Prospects?

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

80% of prospects see a drop after release, and never reach the first week value. I can break this out for any Bowman or Draft set. If you were to buy every single player at release, you would lose money on the great majority, and see exponential growth on one or two players. You'd have to get exceptionally lucky and land on a Trout or Soto release kind of guy to off set the losses as most prospects stagnate.

This ^ is correct

[marl1220]

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

I do prospect and this is patently false. 80% of prospects see a drop after release, and never reach the first week value. I can break this out for any Bowman or Draft set. If you were to buy every single player at release, you would lose money on the great majority, and see exponential growth on one or two players. You'd have to get exceptionally lucky and land on a Trout or Soto release kind of guy to off set the losses as most prospects stagnate.

I'm not talking about first week value. I'm talking settled pricing then tracking moving forward. And again, not on every prospect, that wasn't what I said either. It was 75% of EDUCATED purchases. My definition of an educated purpose is buying where production value is greater than market price. Maybe I have been lucky. But my experience has been exactly this. I have my spreadsheets, buys, and sells that have actual data on it.

[atk825]

Originally Posted by premium1981

I'm not talking about first week value. I'm talking settled pricing then tracking moving forward. And again, not on every prospect, that wasn't what I said either. It was 75% of EDUCATED purchases. My definition of an educated purpose is buying where production value is greater than market price. Maybe I have been lucky. But my experience has been exactly this. I have my spreadsheets, buys, and sells that have actual data on it.

I think at this point, prospecting is playing penny stocks where the stocks are no longer at penny stock price levels. You either have to have just the sharpest eye, have an in on the product or get really lucky for prospecting to work out.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Maybe I have been lucky.

“Luck is what happens when preparedness meets opportunity” ~ Earl Nightingale

[Boredlawyer]

Originally Posted by premium1981

I'm not talking about first week value. I'm talking settled pricing then tracking moving forward. And again, not on every prospect, that wasn't what I said either. It was 75% of EDUCATED purchases. My definition of an educated purpose is buying where production value is greater than market price. Maybe I have been lucky. But my experience has been exactly this. I have my spreadsheets, buys, and sells that have actual data on it.

How can you assess a price on "production value"?

If we were talking about stocks, your statement would essentially be "75% of the time when I purchase a stock that's undervalued compared to the market, I make money". No kidding.

The entire crux of the issue is... Figuring out what's undervalued compared to the market.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

How can you assess a price on "production value"?

If we were talking about stocks, your statement would essentially be "75% of the time when I purchase a stock that's undervalued compared to the market, I make money". No kidding.

The entire crux of the issue is... Figuring out what's undervalued compared to the market.

Create a spreadsheet.
Track minor league numbers
Track autograph prices

Use your eyes. It stands out, often boldly. Most just don’t put in that research and rely on who is talked about on this site, and on tv. Be ahead of the curve.

[beavers]

I like Brayan Rocchio as an impact guy who is cheap yet flashy. I’m just a dude with a tablet though.

[Hail2TheVictors]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

How can you assess a price on "production value"?

If we were talking about stocks, your statement would essentially be "75% of the time when I purchase a stock that's undervalued compared to the market, I make money". No kidding.

The entire crux of the issue is... Figuring out what's undervalued compared to the market.

Prospecting has nothing to do with prices at release, etc. it’s identifying 1) undervalued players, 2) players with elite talent, and 3) anything else that can help a player gain value (among other things).

It takes knowledge of the market, and following stats and performance. Once you get a good handle, you should absolutely be able to make money.

I’ll share an example. When Oswaldo Cabrera came back from injury in July he hit a few HR in AAA, and I noticed his cards were way undervalued. $20ish chrome auto, he hit 27 hr last year, plays ss for Yankees, etc. tons to like. At worst he would be dealt somewhere and called up this year or next, imo, and I could move stuff for what I paid.

I bought 20-25 cards and paid $2400. A month ish later I sold it all for $7300.

So after eBay fees $4000 in profit in a month. This is not always typical, but there’s plenty of opportunity for what premium mentioned: intelligent buying.

[Hail2TheVictors]

Originally Posted by premium1981

Create a spreadsheet.
Track minor league numbers
Track autograph prices

Use your eyes. It stands out, often boldly. Most just don’t put in that research and rely on who is talked about on this site, and on tv. Be ahead of the curve.

Well said. And you’re right, most won’t put in the time/research.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by Hail2TheVictors

Well said. And you’re right, most won’t put in the time/research.

It can be a lot of work to actually go through all of them, but it does pay off most of the time. Maybe I have just been lucky, but usually when something is repeatable over the years its more of a pattern, and not so much luck. So I just try to repeat the pattern.

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by premium1981

It can be a lot of work to actually go through all of them, but it does pay off most of the time. Maybe I have just been lucky, but usually when something is repeatable over the years its more of a pattern, and not so much luck. So I just try to repeat the pattern.

I may or may not agree with how "easy" you are claiming it to be, but I can definitively say that when you hit with prospecting, it can make up for TONS of losses. If you hit, you hit big.

[TKChicago]

I shared this advice last year…I think it still holds true…

Rip a ton of bowman

Look at all the 1st Bowmans /99 and less that you pull

Buy $5k of that guy.

Cross fingers

Lets go D'Shawn Knowles!

[Bambino22]

It sounds like you guys all buy prospect cards with a plan to eventually resell them into cash in a short period (less than a few years)?

Compared to sealed wax investors, where many have no plans for selling in first few years after their purchase.

It's not obvious to me why this is. I assume risk is just so much higher on individual players.

OP, I just picked 2 players and bought high end. House and Luciano. Not recommended. But my intent was not to flip for profits. But to follow their minor and hopefully major league careers holding some of their highest end cards.

[Rooftop]

Acuna’s younger brother

[Hail2TheVictors]

Originally Posted by premium1981

It can be a lot of work to actually go through all of them, but it does pay off most of the time. Maybe I have just been lucky, but usually when something is repeatable over the years its more of a pattern, and not so much luck. So I just try to repeat the pattern.

I started prospecting in 2010 - it's gotten more difficult in the last 2 years or so, but there is still plenty of opportunity. What you've experienced is definitey not luck.

Beyond what you mentioned with research, you have to know the market well. The time to sell could be when a guy is in A or AA ball, during ST, etc. You have to know when it's a good time to sell, and take advantage of a significant bump (rather than hold too long).

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by Hail2TheVictors

You have to know when it's a good time to sell, and take advantage of a significant bump (rather than hold too long).

It should be noted that a "good time to sell" may mean losing money. i.e.: cutting your losses

[MoreToppsPlease]

People should realize by now that any player/anything can be flipped for profit if the timing’s right.

It’s just that the most successful flippers usually create the “right time” themselves regardless of how the player performs. It’s the best way to lessen risk.

[corockies]

Originally Posted by NCWolf

Zac Veen is probably cheaper than he should be. Home runs will be had at Coors. And the chicks dig the long ball!

Veen's problem will be languishing in the Rockies farm system 2-3 years too long. Happens to nearly all their prospects (except Tovar - I'm pretty sure the Rockies hand was forced on that decision though, the fan base is really fed up with how the Monforts run the team.)

[WaxPax]

We all know nobody has ever lost money prospecting, everyone sells their stash and makes profit just before the prospects goes bust...you can't miss...

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

It should be noted that a "good time to sell" may mean losing money. i.e.: cutting your losses

HUGE HUGE HUGE. I've often stated that not selling for a loss is the biggest mistake that people make in this hobby. It goes against our nature to admit we have failed and will lose on this or that. But as bad as it hurts, that is the only way to get out of a bad investment. Sell it, and find something else. I have a had my fair share of stinkers, but back to back losses are a lot rarer. That means you often can recover from purchase #1 as long as you are able to make purchase #2 from selling #1. That is much better than just watching something continue to fall further and further trying to ride it out. Great tip.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by WaxPax

We all know nobody has ever lost money prospecting, everyone sells their stash and makes profit just before the prospects goes bust...you can't miss...

I don't know of a single person who has said that. Always fun to exaggerate and make things up though.

[cardsin47]

Originally Posted by premium1981

HUGE HUGE HUGE. I've often stated that not selling for a loss is the biggest mistake that people make in this hobby. It goes against our nature to admit we have failed and will lose on this or that. But as bad as it hurts, that is the only way to get out of a bad investment. Sell it, and find something else. I have a had my fair share of stinkers, but back to back losses are a lot rarer. That means you often can recover from purchase #1 as long as you are able to make purchase #2 from selling #1. That is much better than just watching something continue to fall further and further trying to ride it out. Great tip.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[callou2131]

Originally Posted by Boredlawyer

I do prospect and this is patently false. 80% of prospects see a drop after release, and never reach the first week value. I can break this out for any Bowman or Draft set. If you were to buy every single player at release, you would lose money on the great majority, and see exponential growth on one or two players. You'd have to get exceptionally lucky and land on a Trout or Soto release kind of guy to off set the losses as most prospects stagnate.

And even if you do get a winner, if you buy at the wrong time you still lose. Bobby Witt Has lost a TON of value even though he had a pretty darn good rookie season. His sapphire in PSA 9 went from $250 down to like $40

[VinnyH]

Originally Posted by callou2131

And even if you do get a winner, if you buy at the wrong time you still lose. Bobby Witt Has lost a TON of value even though he had a pretty darn good rookie season. His sapphire in PSA 9 went from $250 down to like $40

Witt Jr is an example of a prospect being in the wrong market. Unless he’s a record breaking home run or high avg. hitter, he’s in KC and won’t get the love of Chi, NY, LA, etc.
I could be wrong but he’s destined to be an excellent player in a small market with fading hobby hype.
Imho,
Vinny