2022 Baseball Prospectus Top 101 Prospects

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by JRX

I like how in the span of a year we've gone from next Mickey Mantle to his career is over.

Career over is obviously a major overstatement...but his values have always been out of whack. I literally just bought a Corey Seager orange auto PSA 9 for less than the last Dominguez blue or green shimmer auto PSA 9s went for...and one of those guys just got a $300M contract. You could say similar things about Nolan Arenado, or Carlos Correa, or Manny Machado, or pretty much any player whose 1st Bowman auto was from 2009 to 2015 that isn't Mike Trout or Mookie Betts.

There's an extremely real chance that Dominguez winds up as a player that's in the major leagues for like 4 years and has less than 5 career WAR. Or he could make the HOF someday. The issue isn't the talent - it's the probabilities involved. People have seen the Soto/Acuna/Tatis/Vlad group and gotten way out of line with how likely it is for other prospects to repeat that stuff.

I've been building a trade target list of 1st Bowman/Bowman RC autos - mostly players that have been in the majors a while and have some solid HOF chances - and have been going through all the Bowman checklists for the last decade. It's grisly. There's going to be so much value go up in smoke on Bowman autos from 2019-2021. If someone doesn't have an absolute emotional need to own these prospect cards, I would encourage them to sell and reacquire when the players are 27 - they could have really good careers and they will likely STILL be cheaper than now unless they're going to be a pantheon kind of player.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by tyrith

Career over is obviously a major overstatement...but his values have always been out of whack. I literally just bought a Corey Seager orange auto PSA 9 for less than the last Dominguez blue or green shimmer auto PSA 9s went for...and one of those guys just got a $300M contract. You could say similar things about Nolan Arenado, or Carlos Correa, or Manny Machado, or pretty much any player whose 1st Bowman auto was from 2009 to 2015 that isn't Mike Trout or Mookie Betts.



There's an extremely real chance that Dominguez winds up as a player that's in the major leagues for like 4 years and has less than 5 career WAR. Or he could make the HOF someday. The issue isn't the talent - it's the probabilities involved. People have seen the Soto/Acuna/Tatis/Vlad group and gotten way out of line with how likely it is for other prospects to repeat that stuff.



I've been building a trade target list of 1st Bowman/Bowman RC autos - mostly players that have been in the majors a while and have some solid HOF chances - and have been going through all the Bowman checklists for the last decade. It's grisly. There's going to be so much value go up in smoke on Bowman autos from 2019-2021. If someone doesn't have an absolute emotional need to own these prospect cards, I would encourage them to sell and reacquire when the players are 27 - they could have really good careers and they will likely STILL be cheaper than now unless they're going to be a pantheon kind of player.

Oh I agree completely. Most autos will be worth way less 5 years from now, it's a constant pump and dump. I just like how after part of a year at 18 where he was ok, he went from this massive prospect to not being in the top 100.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by JRX

Oh I agree completely. Most autos will be worth way less 5 years from now, it's a constant pump and dump. I just like how after part of a year at 18 where he was ok, he went from this massive prospect to not being in the top 100.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Yeah, sounds like the danger that he may not be able to stay in CF soured some scouts pretty fast. That's certainly a value killer for a super young prospect.

[TheHeel]

Chill. Jasson is only 19.

[jhesh4]

Dax Fulton (even though I like him) was a surprise for me. You can really project him out, but I did not think he would make any of the preseason lists

[rwperu34]

*Flip Torkelson and Adley and you've got my top 4.

*I like Abrams more than Luciano.

*Cruz will be a pretty good second fiddle to Wander in 2022 Flagship.

*Brett Baty at 13? No f'n way.

*I will die on the Alek Thomas is better than Corbin Carroll hill. When you adjust for hobby he's way better. This list is the closest I've seen them though.

*Is Joey Bart ranked #53 or is he 53 years old?

*I think the world is sleeping on Pratto. I wish more of his stuff would come up for auction.

*Geraldo Perdomo at #97 is about perfect.

*Heliot Ramos does not make the list after his disastrous year. I have completely divested outside of a few refractors that need to go to PSA.

[cardozo]

No Hedbert Perez is unexpected.

[VandyCards]

Originally Posted by cardozo

No Hedbert Perez is unexpected.

Why?

He had really good results in the complex league, but still Ks a lot, does not walk much (perhaps indicated poor pitch selection or approach), and is a corner OF only with not much physical projection left.

He’s a guy with basically one carrying tool, and he has to develop the hard one (hit) in order to get to the good one (power).

He might learn to hit and select pitches.

I think if this list was 200 prospects he might be on it. But I’m not even sure he’s one of MKE’s top 7 prospects right now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[VandyCards]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

*Flip Torkelson and Adley and you've got my top 4.

*I like Abrams more than Luciano.

*Cruz will be a pretty good second fiddle to Wander in 2022 Flagship.

*Brett Baty at 13? No f'n way.

*I will die on the Alek Thomas is better than Corbin Carroll hill. When you adjust for hobby he's way better. This list is the closest I've seen them though.

*Is Joey Bart ranked #53 or is he 53 years old?

*I think the world is sleeping on Pratto. I wish more of his stuff would come up for auction.

*Geraldo Perdomo at #97 is about perfect.

*Heliot Ramos does not make the list after his disastrous year. I have completely divested outside of a few refractors that need to go to PSA.

What do you mean by adjust for hobby?

Absolutely agree with you on Pratto. Kid is a baseball rat. Not sure he’ll ever be a hobby superstar, but maybe a Nick Johnson type for a long time.

Re: Heliot, has he had any stretches other than that glorious AZL that make people believe in him? He sort of reminds me of a potential outcome for Jasson, in terms of body and approach. Also I once heard one of Heliot’s coaches absolutely bury him in a discussion with a fan. Which, suffice to say, is pretty unusual.

Agree with you on Baty at 13 seeming high. I think the kicker for him will he if he can hit 270 or 240. He plays good defense and has a really sweet power swing.

I haven’t seen Abrams or Luciano in person. But Luciano does seem to be filling out more like a 3B, and im not sure I buy the approach. That Hi A spell should be a wake-up call for him. I think he has the talent to make the necessary adjustments.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[VandyCards]

My read on these is that Martin is too high, Gunnar is too high, too light on Mauricio, Yorke, Carroll.

I’d also take Moreno over Alvarez. But I can understand either way.

Nothing particularly egregious though.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by JRX

I like how in the span of a year we've gone from next Mickey Mantle to his career is over.

Anyone who had either of those thoughts are loco. My whole point was in reference to his prices vs reason for that pricing. Anyone buying was doomed from the start.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

Where's my guy: Luisangel Acuna

Maybe he will make next years list, then Bryan Acuna can make the one after that.

[sheetskout]

Originally Posted by TheHeel

Chill. Jasson is only 19.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[Yaga]

Originally Posted by VandyCards

Why?

He had really good results in the complex league, but still Ks a lot, does not walk much (perhaps indicated poor pitch selection or approach), and is a corner OF only with not much physical projection left.

He’s a guy with basically one carrying tool, and he has to develop the hard one (hit) in order to get to the good one (power).

He might learn to hit and select pitches.

I think if this list was 200 prospects he might be on it. But I’m not even sure he’s one of MKE’s top 7 prospects right now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

He's all over the place depending where you look. Prospects 1500 has him at #1 for the Brewers.

https://www.prospects1500.com/nl-cen...rospects-2022/

[cardozo]

Originally Posted by VandyCards

Why?

He had really good results in the complex league, but still Ks a lot, does not walk much (perhaps indicated poor pitch selection or approach), and is a corner OF only with not much physical projection left.

He’s a guy with basically one carrying tool, and he has to develop the hard one (hit) in order to get to the good one (power).

He might learn to hit and select pitches.

I think if this list was 200 prospects he might be on it. But I’m not even sure he’s one of MKE’s top 7 prospects right now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Because he has a lot of hype and talent and probably will be in the top 100 of most other lists.

[cardozo]

Originally Posted by Yaga

He's all over the place depending where you look. Prospects 1500 has him at #1 for the Brewers.

https://www.prospects1500.com/nl-cen...rospects-2022/

And #4 at MILB, pushed down a spot after they drafted Frelick.

[imbluestreak23]

I remember in the old days Baseball America's top 100 thread, usually posted by JP, was the hottest prospect discussion list.

But now it's not free

[VandyCards]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

I remember in the old days Baseball America's top 100 thread, usually posted by JP, was the hottest prospect discussion list.

But now it's not free

People used to post it even after the paywall went up. I’m glad that has stopped (the sharing of paid content part).

Edit: I do miss the discussion though. It seems JP doesn’t post as much anyone.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[D-Lite]

Originally Posted by Htown1032

Personally don't think Dominguez belongs in the top 100 but was a bit surprised they didn't squeeze him in.

Also thought Everson Pereira would make the cut following his progress last year.

Pereira surprises me too but he’s not getting the love anywhere. I think they may feel the hit tool won’t cut it at AAA and MLB.

[JRX]

It would be interesting to see who 101-105 are because the top of this year's list should already be in the majors (Witt, Julio, Adley, Tork, Greene).

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by VandyCards

People used to post it even after the paywall went up. I’m glad that has stopped (the sharing of paid content part).

Edit: I do miss the discussion though. It seems JP doesn’t post as much anyone.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think I remember him saying something along the lines of cards are too pricey now. With all of the speculation and mini bubbles popping up in the hobby, he is right

[VandyCards]

Originally Posted by Yaga

He's all over the place depending where you look. Prospects 1500 has him at #1 for the Brewers.

https://www.prospects1500.com/nl-cen...rospects-2022/

And 13th on FG.

That he’s ranked high (or low) by other writers doesn’t inform the analysis of why I think he isn’t a Top 100 guy right now. He’s an extreme risk guy who will need to bust his tail to even be an average MLB hitter. Maybe he will maybe he won’t. But there are a lot more guys (both in the system, and in MiLB as a whole) who are much higher likelihood to be valuable MLB contributors.

This perhaps underscores the difficulty/differences is ranking prospects (especially across ages and levels). How do you compare a guy who has a 5-90-5 projection of 5/2/0 WAR per season with a guy who has a 5-90-5 of 8/.2/0? I lean more towards the likely contributor than I do to the “if these 3 unlikely events happen, he’s an all-star” guy.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[VandyCards]

Originally Posted by cardozo

And #4 at MILB, pushed down a spot after they drafted Frelick.

MLB Pipeline hasn’t done their 2022 yet. I’m not certain their most recent re-rank involves a deep dive into 2021 stuff. His write up doesn’t reference it, at least.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[VandyCards]

Originally Posted by D-Lite

Pereira surprises me too but he’s not getting the love anywhere. I think they may feel the hit tool won’t cut it at AAA and MLB.

I think he’s probably in the next 10-20 names. He had a very loud 2021 but still a lot of Ks. And his pre pandemic year wasn’t phenomenal, albeit aggressively pushed.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[VandyCards]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

I think I remember him saying something along the lines of cards are too pricey now. With all of the speculation and mini bubbles popping up in the hobby, he is right

I hear that. I mean I don’t buy many prospect cards anymore, either. But that doesn’t stop me from participating in card-adjacent convos.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk