Luka Doncic Questionable Autograph Analysis

[theLUCKYshow]

Originally Posted by rogermaris

Here's my first attempt, and I didn't have cursive in my curriculum...

So you're the one who's been signing his cards!!

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[Lee42]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

I thought the same thing about the other thread. I thought maybe the OP of that thread had one of those first day or next day autos whatever they are and wanted to make his card seem more valuable because it was the first card posted in that thread. That was just the sense i got from it. Me, i have zero Luka autographs or any of his cards. Im just a fan.

I was the OP of the other thread.......I own 0 Luka autos. I would like one in my PC but don't own any of his autos.

I am a bit of a nerd when it comes to signatures and patches.........when I saw that his signature on a lot of his cards was much different to the next day auto it aroused suspicions for me.

I just hate people getting duded with questionable signatures or patches.

[brettmik59]

I agree it's a very easy signature for anyone to fake. But even so, there's no definitive evidence of him signing in such a fashion which is strange. All we have is a copy of his mom's auto which looks awfully similar.

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[superdan49]

Good analysis by rogermaris. Ultimately, I'm not convinced, but the seeds of doubt have been sown in my mind. What is Panini's policy on witnessing autographs?

Also, as far as this thread being libel, in order to libel a public figure, there needs to be "malicious intent." Doxing 16-year-olds and calling them Nazis on Twitter because you don't like their beliefs, that's libel. Questioning an NBA star's autograph because it looks different than other exemplars is nowhere near libel.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by superdan49

What is Panini's policy on witnessing autographs?

They don't for a great majority. They simply send the players a giant box of cards to sign with a pen and instructions.

The Dak Prescott Prizm auto pen scandal was quite large and ultimately acknowledge and rectified in the form of replacements.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...hlight=autopen

[jw8]

subscribed. i've posted my thoughts in the other thread as well but curious to see how this plays out. my analysis is on par with rogermarris - give me 1000 stickers and I'm going to rush through them, as the athlete I could care less if they're legible I'm getting paid to sign these things regardless.
edit: i own multiple "loopy" luka sigs for those wondering what my agenda is.

[rogermaris]

Originally Posted by superdan49

Good analysis by rogermaris. Ultimately, I'm not convinced, but the seeds of doubt have been sown in my mind.

I wouldn't say I'm 100% convinced either -- although my doubt is probably higher than yours. That being said, it's always possible there's a reasonable explanation for all this. At this point though, I think there's enough evidence of foul play to warrant discussion/further investigation, which is why I wanted to share my personal conclusions. I hope people continue digging deeper and uncover more evidence, even if it means my analysis is proven wrong.

[ordietrying99]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

They don't for a great majority. They simply send the players a giant box of cards to sign with a pen and instructions.

The Dak Prescott Prizm auto pen scandal was quite large and ultimately acknowledge and rectified in the form of replacements.

https://www.blowoutforums.com/showth...hlight=autopen

I think we have had images of athletes signing with their agents, in their offices or on their desks before, no? I do recall.
I think the agent and a liaison usually decide how to handle marketing, promotional and player compensation related things...
Sometimes I think that means the cards just get forwarded directly on...
But with the circus, sticker prices and profile around Luka, I think the likelihood of the intermediaries in this regard being involved is much more likely than any family or mom taking care of it.

Look up BDA Sports International staff...now this is pure speculation, but they don't strike me as the most trustworthy looking folks.

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[RAV2773]

The fact of the matter is that we will never know if he had someone else sign some of those stickers or not. We can just believe what we want to believe. If we were to watch him sign in person right now and he signed differently than those careful cursive examples that are in question here, it can just be explained away by saying he was trying something different with his auto during that time. We can never prove that he had someone else do it. Just like with Shaq or any other star player that we have suspicions of. I personally think that this happens ALOT more than we think. These guys have thousands upon thousands of signatures that they need to sign for companies. So to look for shortcuts is not surprising. Especially if a company is just sending them a bunch of stickers with instructions on them and no one is there to personally see them sign. You have to remember, for us in the hobby, this is a big deal to have a real autograph of these athletes for our own collections or to re-sell. To some of these athletes, they could care less. They sign so much during their career that having some family members or friends sign some random stickers for them once in a while (maybe because they're tired of signing or just want to be done with them because they're past due or need to be done by a certain time) is not a big deal to them. They're making their money regardless. I'm sure many athletes take pride in signing everything themselves and dont mind having to sign thousands of items during their careers, but I'm pretty sure that there are some (probably more than we could imagine) that just get tired of it and if some of these companies aren't paying close enough attention to the process, than they are going to take some shortcuts like this. Whether its auto pens like some guys have done in the past or whether its using a family member or maybe paying a close friend to sign a few stickers here and there. Unfortunately this has been done in the past and will probably continue to be done and there's really no way we can prove it because most of the time it can just be explained away.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Silentcommit

Khal,

Over the years, there has been alot writ ten about doncic overseas. He was basically living by himself at a young age to play ball away from his family aND his mom felt alot of guilt over this, according to press reports. Then as he got older, she started moving to be closer to him and starting asserting herself into his pro life. If you read about him his last couple of years in europe, when he and his mom were trying to figure out their relationship, he sort of had her doing things that seemed like busy work to appease her. Signing cards by the hundreds is just one of the things I could see her doing.

Just speculation on my part. but his signatures are different, that's just a fact. It's different people signing.

Agreed. She is certainly more publicly in his life than most mothers it seems. And I don't think we only notice it because she's hot.

It's a mistake to throw shade at rogermaris just because the topic is uncomfortable.

[AnthonyCorona]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Agreed. She is certainly more publicly in his life than most mothers it seems. And I don't think we only notice it because she's hot.

It's a mistake to throw shade at rogermaris just because the topic is uncomfortable.

Dang, she is hot!


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[gameissued]

Players change their autograph. LeBron during his rookie year alone did it multiple times, yet they're rarely questioned. The difference is when he changes it up, he REALLY changes it up deliberately to something almost completely different. And as an added measure of integrity they were all done with a UDA witness.

In this case of Luka Doncic, it's pretty much like the bad batch of Panini Shaq auto's where somebody is a ghost signer trying to mimic his signature the best they can (which I don't think is that difficult). Looks to me like a pretty clear cut forgery and at best is highly questionable (and even that would be a generous evaluation).

The story just doesn't add up. With a Panini witness at a sit down session what does his sig look like? And now compare it to the send-ins without a witness it magically becomes a loopy lulu. Same with Shaq, when they got a pictures of him signing, the signatures all of the sudden become spot on. That's hard evidence that should be alarming to everyone.

Originally Posted by RAV2773

The fact of the matter is that we will never know if he had someone else sign some of those stickers or not. We can just believe what we want to believe. If we were to watch him sign in person right now and he signed differently than those careful cursive examples that are in question here, it can just be explained away by saying he was trying something different with his auto during that time. We can never prove that he had someone else do it. Just like with Shaq or any other star player that we have suspicions of. I personally think that this happens ALOT more than we think. These guys have thousands upon thousands of signatures that they need to sign for companies. So to look for shortcuts is not surprising. Especially if a company is just sending them a bunch of stickers with instructions on them and no one is there to personally see them sign. You have to remember, for us in the hobby, this is a big deal to have a real autograph of these athletes for our own collections or to re-sell. To some of these athletes, they could care less. They sign so much during their career that having some family members or friends sign some random stickers for them once in a while (maybe because they're tired of signing or just want to be done with them because they're past due or need to be done by a certain time) is not a big deal to them. They're making their money regardless. I'm sure many athletes take pride in signing everything themselves and dont mind having to sign thousands of items during their careers, but I'm pretty sure that there are some (probably more than we could imagine) that just get tired of it and if some of these companies aren't paying close enough attention to the process, than they are going to take some shortcuts like this. Whether its auto pens like some guys have done in the past or whether its using a family member or maybe paying a close friend to sign a few stickers here and there. Unfortunately this has been done in the past and will probably continue to be done and there's really no way we can prove it because most of the time it can just be explained away.

[RogerGodahell]

See the thing is he's got 2 known in person witnessed autographs and they both look different. One looks like crap. The other looks very similar to the sticker autos to me. Not quite as neat but pretty close, passable. Some people say no no those don't look alike under intense scrutiny. Well, i think they look a lot more alike then his neat known auto and his messy known auto. Those 2 looks completely different. So there lies the conundrum. We'll never know the answer to this for sure. He's not going to admit someone signed his autos for him it's a lot easier for him to say yes i signed them. Because you can't prove for a fact he didn't.

[KhalDrogo]

They’re not close at all though. Maybe after a quick glance you could argue that. But the differences in penmanship are drastic.

Where is that thread somebody did last year looking at how many autos the rookies were signing? It was 10k plus for the big names. You think all of these guys are signing that many autos themselves?

[RogerGodahell]

My point is the difference isn't as drastic as his 2 known autos. They're more similar than those. The ones i pointed out and the ones lucky pointed out look more similar to the stickers than his 2 known in person autos do to each other. Those 2 looks completely different. And the argument about the shape rectangular vs square is flawed. What shape is a sticker? Of course those are going to be rectangular or elongated in nature.

[RogerGodahell]

wrong thread

[hawkeyecards]

Originally Posted by rogermaris

Here are the two you called out side by side.



To me they don't look the same at all -- they look like they were done by different people.

First of all look at the shape of the autograph itself. The one one on the left is rectangular and wide, the one on the right is compact and square. The "L"s are narrower, taller (relative to the "U"s), and much closer to one another.

The angle of the autograph is also completely different... the left one is way slantier, as are all the questionable autos...

Idk if you can compare a signaute on a card to a signature on a jersey...

[COMCMax]

We need a poll.

[jifengjeff]

I wonder if anybody can sign their name 100% the same style EVERY SINGLE time，if not，why questioning 80%-90% lookalikes

[cp312]

Not that this proves anything but I used to autograph hound NBA teams in Toronto when I was in high school and you need to understand that there is almost no player who takes his time signing, Michael Redd literally took a pen in each hand and signed figure eights on everyone's pictures, Melo had an extremely rushed signature that barely looked like his certified autos, Curry's were similar to his current auto but he signed it really fast, I could go on...

My point is that if they do this for 20 autos or so outside a hotel, how can you think that they're actually taking their sweet time when they have to sign 1000+ autographs? It makes zero sense that Luka would suddenly sign at half speed when he has to sign more items than he would IP, let alone in a neater fashion with completely different "u"s to finish the signature, the proportions are all off in my opinion.

[Yaz1966]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

I thought the same thing about the other thread. I thought maybe the OP of that thread had one of those first day or next day autos whatever they are and wanted to make his card seem more valuable because it was the first card posted in that thread. That was just the sense i got from it. Me, i have zero Luka autographs or any of his cards. Im just a fan.

'Just a fan' says the guy hoarding 2018-19 wax

[KhalDrogo]

Here’s my signature 65 times. It took two minutes to do that. Then I tried to imitate Luka’s signature. It was actually very easy. The stroke necessary to replicate it is very simple.



So then I tried to imitate what signing a sticker sheet would be like.



There should be close to 150 signatures on here. By the end, I was dying. And you can tell by how sloppy it got at the end.

Whoever is signing these is taking their sweet time to do so. That could be Luka, it could be someone else. Maybe they sign 25 at a time, and that’s how it’s so easy to stay so consistent? My guess is that the signature will evolve over the course of the releases this year.


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[hawkeyecards]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Here’s my signature 65 times. It took two minutes to do that. Then I tried to imitate Luka’s signature. It was actually very easy. The stroke necessary to replicate it is very simple.



So then I tried to imitate what signing a sticker sheet would be like.



There should be close to 150 signatures on here. By the end, I was dying. And you can tell by how sloppy it got at the end.

Whoever is signing these is taking their sweet time to do so. That could be Luka, it could be someone else. Maybe they sign 25 at a time, and that’s how it’s so easy to stay so consistent? My guess is that the signature will evolve over the course of the releases this year.


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Lots of variables in this, especially ones that we can't measure.

Does Luka take pride in his signature? Does he want it to look good? Is he a perfectionist? Was he in a good mood when he made the signatures or a bad one?
You've probably never made that signature, he's been doing it a lot for a few years.
Lots of factors we don't know about, it's obviously not auto-pen, it could be his signature, it might not be. Some good evidence but a lot of factors not considered.

[rogermaris]

Originally Posted by hawkeyecards

Does Luka take pride in his signature? Does he want it to look good? Is he a perfectionist? Was he in a good mood when he made the signatures or a bad one?
You've probably never made that signature, he's been doing it a lot for a few years.
Lots of factors we don't know about, it's obviously not auto-pen, it could be his signature, it might not be. Some good evidence but a lot of factors not considered.

Here's the thing -- you say we can't know these things, and to a large extent you are correct. But I think there's a lot we can actually infer here.

Remember -- we know for sure that Luka was trying to shorten his autograph when he got to the NBA, which is how we got from this pre-NBA signature:



To this post-NBA signature:



All of Luka's earliest NBA autographs are signed this way -- quick, upright, jagged, compressed. From the evolution of his autograph we can reasonably infer that he's been trying to shorten it in order to keep up with the increased demands of signing in the NBA

Now, since we know he was trying to shorten his signature, it's EXTREMELY suspicious that he starts using an ultra-neat, super slow, long, time consuming signature that is even neater and slower than his pre-NBA signature. It's also suspicious that this new "Lulu" signature doesn't match the old one, in terms of angle, compression, and the relative heights of the letters (even in the pre-NBA autos, the "L"s are much taller than the "U"s).

So if Luka is trying to shorten his signature, why would he simultaneously create a much longer signature? And use them to sign thousands of sticker autos? And in some case switch back and forth while signing the same card?





Again, this isn't about just comparing two autographs that don't match. This about taking all the circumstantial evidence and combining it with the fact that the autographs don't match. If you're using Ocaam's razor, it takes a lot of assumptions to conclude that he's signing all his autographs. In my opinion, it takes a lot fewer assumptions to conclude he's using a ghost signer. Because at the end of the day, I don't think it's enough to say, "oh maybe he was just in a different mood one day and signed a bunch of stickers differently." When you look at the chronological development of his autograph and the motivations behind the changes, it just raises too many questions that aren't easy to answer...

[NinjaJohnny]

Why does this thread make me instantly think of Ace Ventura at the apartment crime scene? Opening and closing the glass door over and over.