Yordan Alvarez

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by JRX

Ted Williams? Are you high? The same Ted Williams with a career .482 obo who put up all his stats even missing time for 2 wars? That guy is in your projections? Is Yordan going on the Bonds regiment? Best case scenario is probably 500hr, but he needs to play 10 more years and not get hurt. He's played fewer games each of the last 3 years, so you're hoping he gets super healthy or can continue to put up big numbers without playing the whole year. And when it comes to counting stats, Pujols has about 2x the pa through his age "26" season.

Right now game on the line I probably wouldn't pick anyone over him. However for long term investing, I think he's too much of a risk. I mean Jim Thome hit over 600hr, does anyone really care? What is Yordan going to do to make people care 10yrs from now, hit 70hr?

And if you're just collecting, more power to you, that's what the hobby is all about.

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If Yordan ends his career with 500+ HR and a .300 AVG, he will be revered in the same way that Ted Williams is today. While unlikely, neither of those numbers is out of reach.

You keep harping on the fact that he's missed a lot of games over the last few years. We get it. We've all been there for it. That does not guarantee he's going to miss that many games in the future. If you want a recent example, I'll simply direct you to Arron Judge's Baseball Reference page. In case you don't feel like clicking the link, he played in only 63% of his team's games from 26-28 (Yordan at 80% over last 3, FWIW), playing a smaller % each year. Then at 29-30 he played in 94% of his team's games. We don't know how he's going to ultimately age (I promise, I don't have a time machine, but we know beyond a reasonable doubt that he will be taking PA at age 39. I can assure you the people who invested in him at that time are happy.

[Bambino22]

Originally Posted by JRX

....... Best case scenario is probably 500hr.....

Are we watching the same guy? How is that his best case...

I'm watching a 600hr + hitter who can win multiple mvps.....

[TheCardColony]

I don't like the Astros, but I can't help but like Yordan Alvarez. He's always hitting bombs in the postseason

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

I cringed when I read that. I feel like I have to buy more at 10% of what I paid in 2020/2021 to balance the bad purchases out. Haha

I wouldn't do that....

I have literally abandoned all Flagship and Chrome base from 2020 and later, including refractors. There is simply too much out there. When everybody who wanted one could have 10 it was OK. Now everybody who wants one can have 100...if not 1000...in a PSA 10 slab no less! Even for prospects, chrome and base refractor/mojo...etc are getting dicey over the last couple of years and I'm reducing my supply.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I wouldn't do that....

I have literally abandoned all Flagship and Chrome base from 2020 and later, including refractors. There is simply too much out there. When everybody who wanted one could have 10 it was OK. Now everybody who wants one can have 100...if not 1000...in a PSA 10 slab no less! Even for prospects, chrome and base refractor/mojo...etc are getting dicey over the last couple of years and I'm reducing my supply.

Understand completely but I'm a 2020 Finest Flashback Refractor collector. There are only going to be 50 of any player in silver or gold. I know a few that are damaged where there will ever only be 49. I recall Ohtani being one but I forget if it was silver or gold that was creased. 93 commons are not the best direct comparison with how iconic they are but they run about $20-$25. Figure that would be peak. 2020 commons run about $5-$10 right now. So overall, looking into the future, if I can stay below $25, the loss will be minimal.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

Understand completely but I'm a 2020 Finest Flashback Refractor collector. There are only going to be 50 of any player in silver or gold. I know a few that are damaged where there will ever only be 49. I recall Ohtani being one but I forget if it was silver or gold that was creased. 93 commons are the best direct comparison but they run about $20-$25. Figure that would be peak. 2020 commons run about $5-$10 right now. So overall, looking into the future, if I can stay below $25, the loss will be minimal.

If you're talking a print run of 50, that is not the kind of base I'm talking about. Those cards should age well, so long as the set stays popular.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

If you're talking a print run of 50, that is not the kind of base I'm talking about. Those cards should age well, so long as the set stays popular.

It really depends on how and what price you attain them at. I think there is always going to be a market for star rookie cards in PSA 10 at certain price points. The target customer isn't going to be your advanced collector but really a fan that wants to put one on their team shelf at home. I saw a few base 2020 chromes of Luis Robert and Yordan Alvarez sell for $10 on eBay trying to clear them out. If you can sell them to a fan at $20, you aren't doing too bad especially if you have 100 of them. It may take time but profit is profit if your business is built around selling cards like that. I think there was a time Aarond Judge was selling about that price.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

It really depends on how and what price you attain them at. I think there is always going to be a market for star rookie cards in PSA 10 at certain price points. The target customer isn't going to be your advanced collector but really a fan that wants to put one on their team shelf at home. I saw a few base 2020 chromes of Luis Robert and Yordan Alvarez sell for $10 on eBay trying to clear them out. If you can sell them to a fan at $20, you aren't doing too bad especially if you have 100 of them. It may take time but profit is profit if your business is built around selling cards like that. I think there was a time Aarond Judge was selling about that price.

I mean if you can get a 100 card lot for $1000, then maybe. I can't imagine the time it would take to buy them one at a time though. Actually, I can, and it's miserable. I don't even waste my time when they list 20 singles instead of one lot.

One thing I need to do for myself is start to pay more attention to graded card lots. I'd be looking to profit about $2-4 per card if it's all one card of the same player at Yordan #276 price level. Your example would certainly meet that criteria, I think. It looks like you can get them for $7-$12 on occasion (although I would never waste my time bidding on them individually because there would be too many losses) and about one a day sells for $19.99 + $4.99 shipping (or higher).

The problem is in the last 90 days exactly one lot has sold for less than the max buy in to make that profitable. I mean I guess if you're already looking for other Yordan stuff it's no biggie to glance for that lot. If you're forced to raise your price to $29.99 + FS you can pay a few dollars more, but only six have sold at that level over the last month. That's out of how many listed?

One thing I'd point out is, what we're talking about is simply a quick flip. I think that's solid with virtually any card of any player so long as you know the current prices and are generally aware of the seasonal cycle. It doesn't really matter what Yordan does ten years from now or even in Spring Training 2024 because all of those cards will be sold, pronto.

[rwperu34]

One thing that is obvious is The Protector is not giving an accurate description of the Yordan #276 market. Yes, they are available for $7-$15...if you're willing to put in the work...then you still have to get a little lucky. The average sale is about $22-$23, and the lowest BIN is a little over $23. So Yordan #276 hasn't even lost 70% of its value from peak. More like 55%...or less than the the BCA market, which is down about ~65% from April 2021 peak! Once again, even from the absolute peak with his most mass produced, mass PSA 10 card, Yordan was a better investment than the average player.

[Archangel1775]

Yes, I'm specifically taking about buying 10 count lots of PSA 10 cards or more. So no grading costs, auctions or paying shipping on individual cards. I remember a seller posting PSA 9 Luis Robert Finest Flashbacks for $6. I messaged him to see if he had PSA 10s and sure enough he did. He was going to post as a lot of 10 for $120 shipped. I told him that I would get back to him and by the time I did, they sold at his store. I'm sure they sell for more now. The key is picking the right player from the right set at the right time. One factor worth mentioning is the growth of the PSA registry. The have different player checklists like Yordan Alvarez Topps base set or Aaron Judge Bowman Draft set. I think PSA does need
to market it more and better though. Cards like Yordan 276 will see consistent demand

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Bambino22

Are we watching the same guy? How is that his best case...

I'm watching a 600hr + hitter who can win multiple mvps.....

He can’t stay healthy now despite being just 26. He’s averaging 131 games a year over the past three seasons.

Trout had 240 HRs through his age 26 season. Yordan has 129. Trout isn’t doing 600. Those missed games derail you quickly.

[Bambino22]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

He can’t stay healthy now despite being just 26. He’s averaging 131 games a year over the past three seasons.

Trout had 240 HRs through his age 26 season. Yordan has 129. Trout isn’t doing 600. Those missed games derail you quickly.

You guys are capping him. Yes that's most likely. But not best case.

[Scottish Punk]

Originally Posted by Bambino22

You guys are capping him. Yes that's most likely. But not best case.

I picture his trajectory closer to somebody like JD Martinez. Yordan has a head start with his 129 HRs by age 26, JD had close to 50. JD is sitting at 315 now at age 35. I can see Yordan being around 400 at the same age. Nothing to sneeze at. I just don't see 600 unless you expect a string of 50 HR seasons in the mix.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by Bambino22

You guys are capping him. Yes that's most likely. But not best case.

He’s capping himself with all the injuries and with a body profile we know will not age well

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by Bambino22

Are we watching the same guy? How is that his best case...

I'm watching a 600hr + hitter who can win multiple mvps.....

Lol multiple MVPs. This is why you can’t trust these Yordan thread regulars with their “investment advice”. Complete delusion. He can’t win a single MVP because he’s a full time DH, forget the needing 155+ games to do it

[JRX]

Originally Posted by Bambino22

Are we watching the same guy? How is that his best case...

I'm watching a 600hr + hitter who can win multiple mvps.....

He doesn't play enough to get to 600hr. If he would play 150+ games a year then yeah maybe assuming he's hitting 50+ a year. He has a grand total of 129hr so 471 to go. Oh and he's only hit over 35 once and never 40+. But lets just assume he averages his current max, it would take about 13 years of doing that to get to 600 and that assumes no future injuries or regression.

Through age 26 he has 2k pa.

Pujols 4k pa
Miggy 4400 pa

He's played half of what those two guys did. You also realize he's 2 years older than Soto and has 31 fewer home runs. What's Soto going to do hit 900? Acuna has two 40hr seasons and he's a year younger. You guys are being delusional. Why stop at Ted Williams, just go all the way to Babe Ruth. 80 years from now Yordan will be highly collected because he will have become a cultural institution adored by people around the globe whether they are baseball fans or not.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by JRX

He doesn't play enough to get to 600hr. If he would play 150+ games a year then yeah maybe assuming he's hitting 50+ a year. He has a grand total of 129hr so 471 to go. Oh and he's only hit over 35 once and never 40+. But lets just assume he averages his current max, it would take about 13 years of doing that to get to 600 and that assumes no future injuries or regression.

Through age 26 he has 2k pa.

Pujols 4k pa
Miggy 4400 pa

He's played half of what those two guys did. You also realize he's 2 years older than Soto and has 31 fewer home runs. What's Soto going to do hit 900? Acuna has two 40hr seasons and he's a year younger. You guys are being delusional. Why stop at Ted Williams, just go all the way to Babe Ruth. 80 years from now Yordan will be highly collected because he will have become a cultural institution adored by people around the globe whether they are baseball fans or not.

So on point. Spit my drink out at the 900 HR line

[OhioLawyerF5]

It's quite clear a couple people here don't understand what the term "best case scenario" means.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

I love Yordan, but 600 HRs ain’t happening. Let’s just enjoy his career for what it is, and what it will be. He has an outside chance of 500 and that would be awesome.

[BBases31]

I think the lesson from all of this is don't take card investment advice from people who think Yordan will win multiple MVPs and hit 600 HRs

[Scottish Punk]

Originally Posted by BBases31

I think the lesson from all of this is don't take card investment advice from people who think Yordan will win multiple MVPs and hit 600 HRs

This happens with every young player with early success in all the sports. Don't even have to be an investor (even though those are obviously louder). Multiple MVPs, multiple Super Bowls, breaking records, etc.

Ken Griffey Jr was a shoe in for the all time HR king. Trout was going to cruise to 500 HRs, very likely 600. Those are two players which were best of their generation. Patience and hype are not bedfellows.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by Scottish Punk

This happens with every young player with early success in all the sports. Don't even have to be an investor (even though those are obviously louder). Multiple MVPs, multiple Super Bowls, breaking records, etc.

Ken Griffey Jr was a shoe in for the all time HR king. Trout was going to cruise to 500 HRs, very likely 600. Those are two players which were best of their generation. Patience and hype are not bedfellows.

Yet both of those things were a part of the "best case scenario" for those players. That's what some people aren't getting. There is no one in this thread saying it is even a good probability Yordan will reach those milestones. That's literally not what a best case scenario means.

[Bambino22]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Yet both of those things were a part of the "best case scenario" for those players. That's what some people aren't getting. There is no one in this thread saying it is even a good probability Yordan will reach those milestones. That's literally not what a best case scenario means.

Exactly. Me and you are on same page.

Everything is a range. My belief is that 600hrs is at the top of that range. Ofcourse unlikely.

[eye4talent]

Yordan’s best comps in semi-recent history (let’s say within our lifetimes as baseball fans and collectors) are probably these four:

Jim Thome
Carlos Delgado
David Ortiz
Corey Seager
Ryan Howard

Thome debuted a week after turning 21, but his career didn’t really take off until he was 25. And so his trajectory is very promising for Yordan—if Yordan can shake the injury bug.

Big Papi’s trajectory is even more reassuring.

If Delgado were playing now, or if his career hadn’t been cut short by a bad hip, he would be held in much higher regard. Regardless, he had a spectacular career, and if Yordan were to stay healthy, he’d have some Delgado-esque seasons, and the hobby would go wild for him.

I include Seager because he and Yordan are similarly productive and similarly injury-prone.

So, I would say these four represent the real-life range of what Yordan’s career could be. (Of course, Seager story is only half-written at this point.) There are cautionary tales but also promising examples.

*Ryan Howard could also be included. But he started late, and he wasn’t nearly as talented of a hitter as the others. So, he actually doesn’t work that well as a comp.


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[boxbuster7]

Found a 2022 heritage autograph going through my cards yesterday. Knew I had it but wanted to keep it for my PC. Glad I held onto it instead of selling.

His autographs are still ridiculously cheap