✹The PERENNIAL Shohei Ohtani Thread✹

[HarryLime]

I think it takes more than three seasons for the HOF. Just ask Tim Lincecum.

Arthur

[theshowandme]

This sold for less than $100,000 back in October somehow. I was shocked that Goldin let me hold it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by HarryLime

I think it takes more than three seasons for the HOF. Just ask Tim Lincecum.

Arthur

What lincecum did wasnt unprecedented though. I'm a bay area native and was at half of those playoff games, but it's not even close.

Not saying Ohtani playing three two-way years in a funnel should get him first ballot induction, but more as a resume centerpiece surrounded by a handful of other solid "pedestrian" one-way years.

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

This sold for less than $100,000 back in October somehow. I was shocked that Goldin let me hold it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Don't hold it, BUY IT!

[al3xmac10]

Originally Posted by al3xmac10

some news from PWCC:

I noticed something with this card:
The auto on this [Red Refractor 3/5] is not consistent with his original, intricate, big & beautiful rookie auto, as seen in his other Bowman Chrome pitching auto RCs.
(This is clear when compared with the BC autos below from ebay.)

I was wondering if this card was a replacement, or...?
Has anyone seen this card before?

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by al3xmac10

I noticed something with this card:

The auto on this [Red Refractor 3/5] is not consistent with his original, intricate, big & beautiful rookie auto, as seen in his other Bowman Chrome pitching auto RCs.

(This is clear when compared with the BC autos below from ebay.)



I was wondering if this card was a replacement, or...?

Has anyone seen this card before?

I didn't want to say anything, but that auto looks fake as hell. The dead give away to me is the loop at the bottom being so round. That means whoever signed it used very slow strokes, which is not how Ohtani signs in his old or new styles. Many of the color autos were streaky and it's easy to wipe/resign. I have no proof, but I would not feel good if I was the buyer.

Adding: I own ~30 Ohtani rookie autos and none of them have the characteristics of that red's signature.

[al3xmac10]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

I didn't want to say anything, but that auto looks fake as hell. The dead give away to me is the loop at the bottom being so round. That means whoever signed it used very slow strokes, which is not how Ohtani signs in his old or new styles. Many of the color autos were streaky and it's easy to wipe/resign. I have no proof, but I would not feel good if I was the buyer.

Adding: I own ~30 Ohtani rookie autos and none of them have the characteristics of that red's signature.

The auto look fake to me as well;
This might be a worse issue than the auto partially wiped off from the Juan Soto 2016 Bowman Chrome Superfractor Auto 1/1.

I made a quick search for other 2018 BC Red Ohtani autos, and I just found 1 image, which is for the 1/5:

https://www.beckett.com/news/first-b...tor-auto-sold/

[imbluestreak23]

Auto definitely looks off.

Puts an Orange Auto non gem at $75-$100K roughly based on historical multipliers but oddly the gem jersey number isn't budging at $120-$130k. Have to think repeat performances push a true Ohtani red closer to the Trout red mark, and other color following.

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

I didn't want to say anything, but that auto looks fake as hell. The dead give away to me is the loop at the bottom being so round. That means whoever signed it used very slow strokes, which is not how Ohtani signs in his old or new styles. Many of the color autos were streaky and it's easy to wipe/resign. I have no proof, but I would not feel good if I was the buyer.

Adding: I own ~30 Ohtani rookie autos and none of them have the characteristics of that red's signature.

Originally Posted by al3xmac10

The auto look fake to me as well;
This might be a worse issue than the auto partially wiped off from the Juan Soto 2016 Bowman Chrome Superfractor Auto 1/1.

I made a quick search for other 2018 BC Red Ohtani autos, and I just found 1 image, which is for the 1/5:

https://www.beckett.com/news/first-b...tor-auto-sold/

Holy cow, batman - a $300,000 card no less, and PWCC is the consignor, eww.

[Trueblue]

Here's some more Bowman auto sample size to perpetuate the difference. Yikes.

[Danderlion]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Here's some more Bowman auto sample size to perpetuate the difference. Yikes.

haha, you can't make this stuff up. how many times do we have to see stuff like this? pwcc though, so not that surprising.

[HarryLime]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

What lincecum did wasnt unprecedented though. I'm a bay area native and was at half of those playoff games, but it's not even close.

You're right, there's no comparison between Lincecum and Ohtani. I'm simply saying Lincecum was the best pitcher on the planet for three years and he's literally a common in today's hobby. Even Bo Jackson can't sniff the HOF and he played for six seasons plus two more seasons of <25 games.

I don't think the absolute idiocy that seeps off certain members of the BBWA like a fart released from a jar after two decades would ever allow them to vote for anyone based on three seasons, no matter what they accomplished.

Arthur

[Trueblue]

Zips has put our man at .261/38/21 batting with a 3.63 ERA for 132Ks over 111IP. Total projected 6.3 WAR.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-zip...ngeles-angels/

Not bad, but I personally think there's a lot of upside in those pitching numbers given the absurd evolution we saw through last season. He's also comped by Zips with Kirk Gibson behind the plate and AJ Burnett behind the mound. Both feel pretty light.

[NYBBFAN]

Ohtani’s pitching numbers will depend on the types of balls MLB rolls out for his starts.

[hammertime]

Merry Christmas to all in the Ohtani thread...my wife got me this ornament for our tree.

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by hammertime

Merry Christmas to all in the Ohtani thread...my wife got me this ornament for our tree.

Awesome!

[diz07]

Originally Posted by al3xmac10

The auto look fake to me as well;
This might be a worse issue than the auto partially wiped off from the Juan Soto 2016 Bowman Chrome Superfractor Auto 1/1.

I made a quick search for other 2018 BC Red Ohtani autos, and I just found 1 image, which is for the 1/5:

https://www.beckett.com/news/first-b...tor-auto-sold/

Ohtani's auto does vary depending on time though. This one looks more like his auto on the 2018 Topps Inception set. Found one example photo from eBay. His 2019, 2020 auto can be really different, maybe related to TJ surgery or just saving time.



I agree this could be a replacement or something happened, but kind of doubt it's a fake card since this is only numbered to 5 and if there is another 3/5, we should know by now after this sale.
Also, I do think I saw one blue bowman chrome kanji auto before, so even in the same set, you could have some cards were signed differently. And judging by the certification number, it's a newly graded slab, PSA probably paid some attention to this card, since its grading fee should be at least a few thousand dollars.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by diz07

Ohtani's auto does vary depending on time though. This one looks more like his auto on the 2018 Topps Inception set. Found one example photo from eBay. His 2019, 2020 auto can be really different, maybe related to TJ surgery or just saving time.







I agree this could be a replacement or something happened, but kind of doubt it's a fake card since this is only numbered to 5 and if there is another 3/5, we should know by now after this sale.

Also, I do think I saw one blue bowman chrome kanji auto before, so even in the same set, you could have some cards were signed differently. And judging by the certification number, it's a newly graded slab, PSA probably paid some attention to this card, since its grading fee should be at least a few thousand dollars.

You can't compare a sticker auto to an on card. Even then, the sticker resembles Ohtani's autograph more than the suspected fake. It's not that the auto is different, it's that there's a strong suggestion that it was signed very slowly by the ridiculous rounded nature of the bottom loop and awkward scale to size compared to 50+ other Bowman autos (or any I've seen).

I'm not a witch hunter, but I would put a good sized wager that the auto is a fake. There are enough things stacked against it where you're really stretching scenarios to explain it. It's much more practical and likely that someone wiped a streaky auto and retraced a signature.

[Trueblue]

Also, if the auto was a replacement, it would resemble the Bowman Batting signature. The timing wouldn't add up for someone to pull the red in March, send it back to Topps, Topps to reprint, Ohtani to sign, and then for Topps to send it back. There's close to zero chance that happens before Ohtani's TJS procedure, which thereafter his autograph drastically changes.

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by diz07

Ohtani's auto does vary depending on time though. This one looks more like his auto on the 2018 Topps Inception set. Found one example photo from eBay. His 2019, 2020 auto can be really different, maybe related to TJ surgery or just saving time.



I agree this could be a replacement or something happened, but kind of doubt it's a fake card since this is only numbered to 5 and if there is another 3/5, we should know by now after this sale.
Also, I do think I saw one blue bowman chrome kanji auto before, so even in the same set, you could have some cards were signed differently. And judging by the certification number, it's a newly graded slab, PSA probably paid some attention to this card, since its grading fee should be at least a few thousand dollars.

I hope that you do not give too much credence to ANY third-party grader, let alone PSA.

[Danderlion]

Originally Posted by diz07

Ohtani's auto does vary depending on time though. This one looks more like his auto on the 2018 Topps Inception set. Found one example photo from eBay. His 2019, 2020 auto can be really different, maybe related to TJ surgery or just saving time.

I agree this could be a replacement or something happened, but kind of doubt it's a fake card since this is only numbered to 5 and if there is another 3/5, we should know by now after this sale.
Also, I do think I saw one blue bowman chrome kanji auto before, so even in the same set, you could have some cards were signed differently. And judging by the certification number, it's a newly graded slab, PSA probably paid some attention to this card, since its grading fee should be at least a few thousand dollars.

The original auto was wiped and someone else resigned it, or at least a very very high likelihood. I am guessing the original auto was streaky and the owner wanted to get top dollar so they attempted to improve the auto.

[diz07]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Also, if the auto was a replacement, it would resemble the Bowman Batting signature. The timing wouldn't add up for someone to pull the red in March, send it back to Topps, Topps to reprint, Ohtani to sign, and then for Topps to send it back. There's close to zero chance that happens before Ohtani's TJS procedure, which thereafter his autograph drastically changes.

Do you mean 2019 March? Why does it need to be before that date? I thought someone could open the pack like a year after the release date and still request a replacement.

To be frank, I'm not familiar with how does Topps replacement work at all and I only got into the hobby at the end of 2020. So maybe there was some background I'm unaware of.

[diz07]

Originally Posted by Danderlion

The original auto was wiped and someone else resigned it, or at least a very very high likelihood. I am guessing the original auto was streaky and the owner wanted to get top dollar so they attempted to improve the auto.

I see, so you mean the card is real but the auto is fake. Guess it was too hard for me to imagine that someone would do that.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by diz07

Do you mean 2019 March? Why does it need to be before that date? I thought someone could open the pack like a year after the release date and still request a replacement.



To be frank, I'm not familiar with how does Topps replacement work at all and I only got into the hobby at the end of 2020. So maybe there was some background I'm unaware of.

2018 Bowman came out April 25th. Ohtani had Tommy John Surgery in December 2018. His signature changed drastically after that date. The suspected fake autograph has his pre-TJs style signature (a bad one).

There's just no way someone pulled the auto, got Topps to reprint and get Ohtani to sign it before December, prioritizing it before ALL other redemptions. That's just not the way Topps works - not even close.

You can only get replacements the same year of the product.

[diz07]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

2018 Bowman came out April 25th. Ohtani had Tommy John Surgery in December 2018. His signature changed drastically after that date. The suspected fake autograph has his pre-TJs style signature (a bad one).

There's just no way someone pulled the auto, got Topps to reprint and get Ohtani to sign it before December, prioritizing it before ALL other redemptions. That's just not the way Topps works - not even close.

You can only get replacements the same year of the product.

I see, thx for the info.