Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend - Page 28

k13 · 10-14-2022, 11:32 AM

10 million people need to lose their jobs in the next two years and not crap jobs that were lost during covid.

That's a soft landing and not even 3% of people.

A true recession should have 20-25 million people losing real jobs.

So everything is still early.

solt0131 · 10-14-2022, 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thewild3

The reason why most dealers aren’t moving any cards at shows is because they are asking for museum prices on ultra modern stuff.

Bingo! This is the #1 reason. They may have $50 on a $25 current card, that drives people away immediately.

k13 · 10-14-2022, 11:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by solt0131

Bingo! This is the #1 reason. They may have $50 on a $25 current card, that drives people away immediately.

People walk away from a $2500 listed for $1900.
My LCS puts $100 cards in $1 boxes to test people how long it will take them to find them. They usually stay there forever because no one looks at singles in boxes they just buy wax at the LCS.

k13 · 10-14-2022, 10:38 PM

99% of the hobby is grading and selling to psa sheep.

ThoseBackPages · 10-14-2022, 10:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by k13

10 million people need to lose their jobs in the next two years and not crap jobs that were lost during covid.

That's a soft landing and not even 3% of people.

A true recession should have 20-25 million people losing real jobs.

So everything is still early.

is that in Canada?

rwperu34 · 10-15-2022, 03:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

Sorry first line should be months not weeks. Just a typo. Thanks for pointing it out. I will edit it.

I'm generally positive and I certainly dont live in fear of a recession, but we have gone from all time high pricing in Feb/Mar to sub 'pull back' pricing in 6 months as shippers cut shipments and capacity (availability of trucks to haul freight) goes from no capacity to gross amounts of capacity available. Industry is headed from one extreme to the other. That concerns me big time for the overall economy.

That sounds like what happened to my BCA Price Index. Or Bitcoin. Or the stock market. Or Arizona Cardinals ticked resales. I think there are a lot of reasons to have concern for the overall economy. #1 for me is the inverted bond yield curve.

hermanotarjeta · 10-15-2022, 10:17 AM

Talked to several dealers/local shop owners, multiple folks have said revenue is down about 30-40% Q3 versus Q2 this year. Maybe seasonal variation as folks were spending more money on summer travel and inflation has ticked up quite a bit in the last several months.

Also, perhaps lack of new products contributing?

One thing for sure, shop owners have continued to adjust wax prices downwards to help spur sales - it definitely feels more like a buyer’s market and dealers are willing to deal on wax more and give more discounts.

Foot traffic is still good, but spending is down significantly.

Healthy hobby in terms of volume, but they are’t spending like they used to. Gas, groceries and debt taking priority as interest rates making it really painful to overspend on credit.

Dealers doing even more to keep your business - I was given a free silver pack for purchasing archives, haha! Last year they wouldn’t give you the time of the day, now they are smooching your heinies!

k13 · 10-15-2022, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

is that in Canada?

No. lol

Only 35 million here total.

blackbears86 · 10-15-2022, 05:13 PM

Went to a show in Bangor, Maine today.

Little backstory about this show: It's bi-monthly, admission is free and tables are $30 each. Usually there are 60-80 tables comprising two rooms.

It's always well advertised and attended.

Today? It was still well attended, but not much buying. Lots of pelican boys asking to buy/trade but my three dealer friends weren't interested. The mood was good because it was a miserable day and at $30 backs a table, there isn't much to complain about.

My observations: TONS and I mean TONS of 2021-22 prizm basketball for sale. (I really think they printed this to the moon) Optic too, but not as much. Not much J-rod for sale. I was looking for Jalen Hurts and didn't have much luck except for chronicles base which I didn't buy.

Only one seller had logofractor boxes for sale at $125 a pop. No lite boxes. One dealer had chrome boxes with silver packs included.

Prices were still insane. I don't think Maine has caught up to the rest of the country. One seller had a 2011 trout update PSA 10 for $2700. Prices were still very high across the board.

oldgoldy97 · 10-15-2022, 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackbears86

Went to a show in Bangor, Maine today.

Little backstory about this show: It's bi-monthly, admission is free and tables are $30 each. Usually there are 60-80 tables comprising two rooms.

It's always well advertised and attended.

Today? It was still well attended, but not much buying. Lots of pelican boys asking to buy/trade but my three dealer friends weren't interested. The mood was good because it was a miserable day and at $30 backs a table, there isn't much to complain about.

My observations: TONS and I mean TONS of 2021-22 prizm basketball for sale. (I really think they printed this to the moon) Optic too, but not as much. Not much J-rod for sale. I was looking for Jalen Hurts and didn't have much luck except for chronicles base which I didn't buy.

Only one seller had logofractor boxes for sale at $125 a pop. No lite boxes. One dealer had chrome boxes with silver packs included.

Prices were still insane. I don't think Maine has caught up to the rest of the country. One seller had a 2011 trout update PSA 10 for $2700. Prices were still very high across the board.

Maine borders Canada so I can see why prices were high.

k13 · 10-15-2022, 05:21 PM

They probably don't even print 10k cases of hobby prizm for football/basketball yet it is so overproduced...

Meanwhile, 25k hobby cases of Series 1 hockey and people can't get enough in a sport no one cares about.

Quite the comedy.

vegetable · 10-15-2022, 05:48 PM

Shareholders cuz ultimately the problem is capitalism.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raleigh504

It is simple why layoffs have occurred. There are a few reasons:

Companies over hired when revenues were great
Most companies won't move people over from other departments.. i.e. layoff 100 salespeople, but have 150 openings in marketing/accounting/finance
Shareholders expect X amount of profit, so they cut staff to meet it making people do multiple jobs (this happened even before the pandemic)

blackbears86 · 10-15-2022, 06:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

Maine borders Canada so I can see why prices were high.

My friends and I were talking about dealers not making much money, but not budging on prices. I think people made so much money in cards during the pandemic that they can afford to sit on high card prices for a little longer, maybe into next year.

anusinha · 10-15-2022, 06:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackbears86

My friends and I were talking about dealers not making much money, but not budging on prices. I think people made so much money in cards during the pandemic that they can afford to sit on high card prices for a little longer, maybe into next year.

Keep sitting on inventory declining in value, brilliant plan.

ThoseBackPages · 10-15-2022, 06:11 PM

went to a show here on LI. it was amazing! lots of customers and people seemed happy

blackbears86 · 10-15-2022, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by anusinha

Keep sitting on inventory declining in value, brilliant plan.

I know---I expected some good deals, but there were none to be had and I had money burning in my pocket to spend.

blackbears86 · 10-15-2022, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

went to a show here on LI. it was amazing! lots of customers and people seemed happy

glad you had luck TBP!!!

letsgocapitals · 10-15-2022, 06:20 PM

Topps Chrome, Prizm basketball, Optic football just SITTING on my WalMart shelves. Packed full. It's over for retail.

MoreToppsPlease · 10-15-2022, 08:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letsgocapitals

Topps Chrome, Prizm basketball, Optic football just SITTING on my WalMart shelves. Packed full. It's over for retail.

Awesome, it should always be this way, even for hobby.

bear0555 · 10-15-2022, 09:36 PM

Anyone else go to the Del Mar show near San Diego this weekend? Foot traffic is very strong imo and most dealers seem to be doing ok. Bought several cards and picked up a killer pc card I can't find online for a killer price (Throwback Threads dual jersey auto Musial/Gwynn). Thought I had walked all the tables then spotted the card about 3' away from me out of the corner of my eye while going to pick up my RCR order.

mwash1983 · 10-15-2022, 09:48 PM

Well the baseball market got far worse with Julio being knocked out of the playoffs and the trash cans getting in the ALCS again.

FT35 · 10-15-2022, 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

went to a show here on LI. it was amazing! lots of customers and people seemed happy

No way! You mean to tell us that you went to a show and there wasn’t ANYTHING negative there that we can trash on here?! Can’t the hobby be depressingly awful everywhere?! Were the happy people at least bitter, or idiots, or better yet, both?!

Get ready, TBP…the hawks are circling the positivity in your post…you better add something about how we are “no where close to the bottom” before you claim firm ground in the “don’t know what you’re talking about” zone. Also, you may be a Pumperboi.

djolley86 · 10-15-2022, 10:17 PM

Retail is readily available all over the place here in NC, as it should be with $35 blasters. What a joke.

ThoseBackPages · 10-15-2022, 10:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FT35

No way! You mean to tell us that you went to a show and there wasn’t ANYTHING negative there that we can trash on here?! Can’t the hobby be depressingly awful everywhere?! Were the happy people at least bitter, or idiots, or better yet, both?!

Get ready, TBP…the hawks are circling the positivity in your post…you better add something about how we are “no where close to the bottom” before you claim firm ground in the “don’t know what you’re talking about” zone. Also, you may be a Pumperboi.

i am ready, Sir!

mwash1983 · 10-16-2022, 12:04 PM

Went to the Syracuse state fair show today and maybe a few hundred at the show. My observations and one of my friends at the show was people looking but no one buying at all. I actually bought but spent 25 dollars as the selection was very subpar. I found an Andrew Painter 2018 Elite Auto and 2017 Masyn Winn contenders auto. There was a ton of pelican boys trying to sell but no one was buying. I walked away from a dealer’s table and guy called me a f’ing ahole for not buying anything. I am thinking that I may be done with shows for the years as a lot of fools still have 2021 prices baked in.

10-15-2022, 10:17 AM	#682
hermanotarjeta Member Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 20,368	Talked to several dealers/local shop owners, multiple folks have said revenue is down about 30-40% Q3 versus Q2 this year. Maybe seasonal variation as folks were spending more money on summer travel and inflation has ticked up quite a bit in the last several months. Also, perhaps lack of new products contributing? One thing for sure, shop owners have continued to adjust wax prices downwards to help spur sales - it definitely feels more like a buyer’s market and dealers are willing to deal on wax more and give more discounts. Foot traffic is still good, but spending is down significantly. Healthy hobby in terms of volume, but they are’t spending like they used to. Gas, groceries and debt taking priority as interest rates making it really painful to overspend on credit. Dealers doing even more to keep your business - I was given a free silver pack for purchasing archives, haha! Last year they wouldn’t give you the time of the day, now they are smooching your heinies! Last edited by hermanotarjeta; 10-15-2022 at 10:20 AM.

10-15-2022, 06:11 PM	#690
ThoseBackPages Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Long Island Posts: 88,915 ThoseBackPages	went to a show here on LI. it was amazing! lots of customers and people seemed happy __________________ Pumpers Paradise #YouCryIBuy Four things that we cannot change each others minds about: Politics, Religion, Third Party Grading, and 2021 Bowman's Best Rookie Cards

10-15-2022, 06:20 PM	#693
letsgocapitals Member Join Date: Oct 2010 Location: Southern Maryland Posts: 3,356 letsgocapitals	Topps Chrome, Prizm basketball, Optic football just SITTING on my WalMart shelves. Packed full. It's over for retail. __________________ Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/southernmaryland.sportscards.5

10-15-2022, 09:36 PM	#695
bear0555 Member Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,828 greenfankc bear0555	Anyone else go to the Del Mar show near San Diego this weekend? Foot traffic is very strong imo and most dealers seem to be doing ok. Bought several cards and picked up a killer pc card I can't find online for a killer price (Throwback Threads dual jersey auto Musial/Gwynn). Thought I had walked all the tables then spotted the card about 3' away from me out of the corner of my eye while going to pick up my RCR order. __________________ Bowman Chrome Autos For Sale: Raw, BGS, PSA, Base, and Color. Click Ebay link for listings. Current Featured Card[s]: 2019 Bowman Chrome Draft Corbin Carroll Black Wave Refractor Auto 1/1 BGS 9.5

10-14-2022, 11:32 AM	#676
k13 Banned Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 12,617	10 million people need to lose their jobs in the next two years and not crap jobs that were lost during covid. That's a soft landing and not even 3% of people. A true recession should have 20-25 million people losing real jobs. So everything is still early.

10-14-2022, 10:38 PM	#679
k13 Banned Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 12,617	99% of the hobby is grading and selling to psa sheep.

10-15-2022, 05:13 PM	#684
blackbears86 Member Join Date: Apr 2011 Location: maine Posts: 17,036 blackbears86	Went to a show in Bangor, Maine today. Little backstory about this show: It's bi-monthly, admission is free and tables are $30 each. Usually there are 60-80 tables comprising two rooms. It's always well advertised and attended. Today? It was still well attended, but not much buying. Lots of pelican boys asking to buy/trade but my three dealer friends weren't interested. The mood was good because it was a miserable day and at $30 backs a table, there isn't much to complain about. My observations: TONS and I mean TONS of 2021-22 prizm basketball for sale. (I really think they printed this to the moon) Optic too, but not as much. Not much J-rod for sale. I was looking for Jalen Hurts and didn't have much luck except for chronicles base which I didn't buy. Only one seller had logofractor boxes for sale at $125 a pop. No lite boxes. One dealer had chrome boxes with silver packs included. Prices were still insane. I don't think Maine has caught up to the rest of the country. One seller had a 2011 trout update PSA 10 for $2700. Prices were still very high across the board.

10-15-2022, 05:21 PM	#686
k13 Banned Join Date: Jan 2014 Posts: 12,617	They probably don't even print 10k cases of hobby prizm for football/basketball yet it is so overproduced... Meanwhile, 25k hobby cases of Series 1 hockey and people can't get enough in a sport no one cares about. Quite the comedy.

10-15-2022, 09:48 PM	#696
mwash1983 Member Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 6,137	Well the baseball market got far worse with Julio being knocked out of the playoffs and the trash cans getting in the ALCS again.

10-15-2022, 10:17 PM	#698
djolley86 Member Join Date: Aug 2016 Location: NC Posts: 1,357 djolley86	Retail is readily available all over the place here in NC, as it should be with $35 blasters. What a joke.

10-16-2022, 12:04 PM	#700
mwash1983 Member Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 6,137	Went to the Syracuse state fair show today and maybe a few hundred at the show. My observations and one of my friends at the show was people looking but no one buying at all. I actually bought but spent 25 dollars as the selection was very subpar. I found an Andrew Painter 2018 Elite Auto and 2017 Masyn Winn contenders auto. There was a ton of pelican boys trying to sell but no one was buying. I walked away from a dealer’s table and guy called me a f’ing ahole for not buying anything. I am thinking that I may be done with shows for the years as a lot of fools still have 2021 prices baked in.