calculusdork's 2021 Cy Young Predictor - Page 28

calculusdork · 09-30-2021, 09:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nostalgia

For the award or for the ERA title?

Necessarily for the 2nd one, implicitly for the 1st.

calculusdork · 09-30-2021, 09:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nostalgia

Liam Hendricks

8-3, 37 saves, 108 k's, 0.75 whip

With no starting pitchers having cy young seasons (other than Rodon), can a closer can win it?

Won't be surprised at all if he picks up at least one 1st place vote

hche · 09-30-2021, 09:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nostalgia

Liam Hendricks

8-3, 37 saves, 108 k's, 0.75 whip

With no starting pitchers having cy young seasons (other than Rodon), can a closer can win it?

Nah, his ERA needs to be like 1.50 to have a chance.

ReggieBush22 · 09-30-2021, 09:21 PM

I give the slight edge to Buehler over Max.

ERA is a wash. And Max's WHIP is no longer light years ahead (.86 to .97). But when you consider Buehler has 23 more IP, that gives him the edge IMO.

Unreal how badly Max imploded his last 2 starts. He all but had the CY in the bag.

wood minis · 09-30-2021, 09:24 PM

doesn't seem like anyone wants it. Why not Urias?

Nostalgia · 09-30-2021, 10:07 PM

Burnes and Rodon...

Would like to see both of those kids win.

rman112 · 09-30-2021, 10:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nostalgia

Burnes and Rodon...

Would like to see both of those kids win.

Rodon's got 132.2 innings...

Nostalgia · 09-30-2021, 10:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

Rodon's got 132.2 innings...

Yup, I know. But the other guys didn't have great seasons.

He has the best whip, era, K/9, and the same amount of wins as Ray. ( know he doesn't qualify for era title.

But Ray will win it. Ugly stats for a cy young winner. Usually a lower era, more strikeouts, and more wins for the winner.

The only 2 higher era's than ray in the last 20 years were Porcello 22-4 and Scherzer 21-3. Ray is 13-8?

Ray will get it.

calculusdork · 09-30-2021, 10:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nostalgia

Yup, I know. But the other guys didn't have great seasons.

He has the best whip, era, K/9, and the same amount of wins as Ray. ( know he doesn't qualify for era title.

But Ray will win it. Ugly stats for a cy young winner. Usually a lower era, more strikeouts, and more wins for the winner.

The only 2 higher era's than ray in the last 20 years were Porcello 22-4 and Scherzer 21-3. Ray is 13-8?

Ray will get it.

Spot on. It's a mess. And Ray let his team down at a critical point.

JWBlue · 09-30-2021, 10:20 PM

Seriously. If Burns wins wouldn't the Cy Young Predictor need to be broken down for spare parts? Does the Predictor use any advanced metrics?

Nostalgia · 09-30-2021, 10:29 PM

Also... WAR

Buehler 6.3
Scherzer 2.7

Is it because of the team change?

And wow....degrom....just wow! 14.3 k/9, 1.08 era, 0.55 whip, 4.4 WAR in a 1/3 of a season! What could have been for this guy!!!

rman112 · 09-30-2021, 10:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nostalgia

Also... WAR

Buehler 6.3
Scherzer 2.7

Is it because of the team change?

And wow....degrom....just wow! 14.3 k/9, 1.08 era, 0.55 whip, 4.4 WAR in a 1/3 of a season! What could have been for this guy!!!

I think that's just with LA.

Pitcher WAR is bogus, though.

Bref has:
1. Wheeler • PHI 7.5
2. Buehler • LAD 6.3
3. Scherzer • 2TM 5.9
4. Burnes • MIL 5.8

Fangraphs has:
1. Burnes - 7.6
2. Wheeler - 7.2
3. Scherzer - 5.4
4. Buehler - 5.2

Nostalgia · 09-30-2021, 10:34 PM

Hmmmm how are there different WAR's for different sites...is there more than one formula?

rman112 · 09-30-2021, 10:38 PM

Burnes will go Saturday in LA. It's a huge start in a few ways. Not only just for Burnes, but for LA in the standings and if Buehler will get another start or not.

hche · 09-30-2021, 10:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nostalgia

Hmmmm how are there different WAR's for different sites...is there more than one formula?

There are 2 major WARs. Baseball reference and fanGraph. The formulas are different.

JWBlue · 09-30-2021, 10:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

Burnes will go Saturday in LA. It's a huge start in a few ways. Not only just for Burnes, but for LA in the standings and if Buehler will get another start or not.

Do the Brewers have anything at stake? Might be a 2 IP start.

Wolverine · 09-30-2021, 11:15 PM

Cardinals Org.: "Damn, we lost Flaherty"
Wainwright: "Hold my beer"

He'd get my 1st place vote. What the Cardinals did this season was awesome. I'm sure the experts will chime in as to why I'm wrong below.

the36chamber · 09-30-2021, 11:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JWBlue

Do the Brewers have anything at stake? Might be a 2 IP start.

They don’t and most of their starters this week have gone in the 50-60 pitch range. I’d expect the same for Burnes.

rman112 · 09-30-2021, 11:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wolverine

Cardinals Org.: "Damn, we lost Flaherty"
Wainwright: "Hold my beer"

He'd get my 1st place vote. What the Cardinals did this season was awesome. I'm sure the experts will chime in as to why I'm wrong below.

He has the 10th lowest ERA in the NL.

During their win streak, his ERA was actually higher.

4 starts - 2-0, 22 innings, 22 hits, 9 ER, 7 BB, 11 K - 3.68 ERA

rman112 · 09-30-2021, 11:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JWBlue

Do the Brewers have anything at stake? Might be a 2 IP start.

Quote:

Originally Posted by the36chamber

They don’t and most of their starters this week have gone in the 50-60 pitch range. I’d expect the same for Burnes.

If you give Burnes 5 more innings, he'd be 32.2 innings behind Buehler, and 43.1 behind Wheeler.

And this is assuming neither of those guys make their Sunday starts.

rwperu34 · 10-01-2021, 12:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

I don't know. They seem to not favor extra rest unless they think it's necessary for that pitcher. If they chose not to skip Buehler when he was struggling, I'm not sure they'd want to skip him after a good one. Unless they do that to have him available in the WC game, it'd be 2x usual rest for the NLDS (8 days). A lot of that would be what their confidence in Scherzer is right now.

There's also the possibility they're 1 back on Sunday, and the Giants win. That's the beauty of having every game start at the same time.

I love that rule. One of the quality changes MLB made that doesn't get much credit/fanfare.

I suppose whether they keep him on regular rest would depend on the LDS schedule. You want your best pitcher able to pitch twice if needed. I know if it were up to me I would not start him in the finale if the Giants have clinched, regardless.

rman112 · 10-01-2021, 12:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rwperu34

I love that rule. One of the quality changes MLB made that doesn't get much credit/fanfare.

I suppose whether they keep him on regular rest would depend on the LDS schedule. You want your best pitcher able to pitch twice if needed. I know if it were up to me I would not start him in the finale if the Giants have clinched, regardless.

I don't think the Mormons have anything to do with this.

rwperu34 · 10-01-2021, 12:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

I don't think the Mormons have anything to do with this.

Wolverine · 10-01-2021, 07:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rman112

He has the 10th lowest ERA in the NL.

During their win streak, his ERA was actually higher.

4 starts - 2-0, 22 innings, 22 hits, 9 ER, 7 BB, 11 K - 3.68 ERA

KevinC · 10-01-2021, 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nostalgia

But Ray will win it. Ugly stats for a cy young winner. Usually a lower era, more strikeouts, and more wins for the winner.

The only 2 higher era's than ray in the last 20 years were Porcello 22-4 and Scherzer 21-3. Ray is 13-8?

Ray will get it.

Ray has more strikeouts than 12 of the 20 CY Young winners in the last 10 years (not counting last years shortened season).

Also, I think we have moved past wins as a metric for good pitchers, deGrom won it in back to back years going 11-8 and 10-9.

09-30-2021, 09:24 PM	#680
wood minis Member Join Date: Mar 2015 Location: Northeastern USA Posts: 4,096	doesn't seem like anyone wants it. Why not Urias? __________________ Allen & Ginter wood mini collector

09-30-2021, 09:21 PM	#679
ReggieBush22 Member Join Date: Oct 2012 Location: Los Angeles, CA Posts: 1,629 lionpride	I give the slight edge to Buehler over Max. ERA is a wash. And Max's WHIP is no longer light years ahead (.86 to .97). But when you consider Buehler has 23 more IP, that gives him the edge IMO. Unreal how badly Max imploded his last 2 starts. He all but had the CY in the bag.

09-30-2021, 10:07 PM	#681
Nostalgia Member Join Date: Sep 2020 Location: New York Posts: 2,039	Burnes and Rodon... Would like to see both of those kids win.

09-30-2021, 10:20 PM	#685
JWBlue Member Join Date: Sep 2014 Location: Phoenix, AZ Posts: 9,899	Seriously. If Burns wins wouldn't the Cy Young Predictor need to be broken down for spare parts? Does the Predictor use any advanced metrics?

09-30-2021, 10:29 PM	#686
Nostalgia Member Join Date: Sep 2020 Location: New York Posts: 2,039	Also... WAR Buehler 6.3 Scherzer 2.7 Is it because of the team change? And wow....degrom....just wow! 14.3 k/9, 1.08 era, 0.55 whip, 4.4 WAR in a 1/3 of a season! What could have been for this guy!!!

09-30-2021, 10:34 PM	#688
Nostalgia Member Join Date: Sep 2020 Location: New York Posts: 2,039	Hmmmm how are there different WAR's for different sites...is there more than one formula?

09-30-2021, 10:38 PM	#689
rman112 Banned Join Date: Oct 2014 Location: Freedom is Free Again Posts: 40,946	Burnes will go Saturday in LA. It's a huge start in a few ways. Not only just for Burnes, but for LA in the standings and if Buehler will get another start or not.

09-30-2021, 11:15 PM	#692
Wolverine Member Join Date: Aug 2020 Posts: 224	Cardinals Org.: "Damn, we lost Flaherty" Wainwright: "Hold my beer" He'd get my 1st place vote. What the Cardinals did this season was awesome. I'm sure the experts will chime in as to why I'm wrong below.