Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Where are you getting your 2019 WAR stats from. Here is ESPN



https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/stat...ir-guerrero-jr

I always use Fangraphs WAR. I’m not sure what ESPN uses, I assume it’s BP’s but BP’s number has notorious inaccuracies in their defense calculation which would likely contribute to the higher number. The best defensive metric(Statcast’s OAA) had Vlad as either worst or 2nd worst last season so FG’s WAR is going to be the better number in this instance.

He also had 464 AB and not 540. Where are you making up your numbers?

On mobile and didn’t have a chance to look it up but I meant PAs(514).


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[Vladdy Jr]

Pujols if he didn’t grow up with the silver spoon. Should’ve recognized that earlier, oh well.

[discodanman45]

I am out of this conversation. This is like the NFL using PFF for stats in football. You can make up any statistic to prove your point. Just weigh defense at 90% at offense at 10% and create a new stat. Don't like QBR in football, then use ESPN QB rankings. I am a physicist, so I know how these statistics work. Just throw in a variable and weight to prove your point and you think you win. Not playing that game. I look at BA, R, RBI, HR, BB, and Strikeouts. Every year you revisit those stats to see if the player is improving.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

I am out of this conversation. This is like the NFL using PFF for stats in football. You can make up any statistic to prove your point. Just weigh defense at 90% at offense at 10% and create a new stat. Don't like QBR in football, then use ESPN QB rankings. I am a physicist, so I know how these statistics work. Just throw in a variable and weight to prove your point and you think you win. Not playing that game. I look at BA, R, RBI, HR, BB, and Strikeouts. Every year you revisit those stats to see if the player is improving.

Except some stats are better measures of performance than others. As an example, RBIs are zero percent reflective of how good a player is or any indicator at all of future production. I understand what you’re saying but the “science” behind the variables of WAR and why they chose to weight them the way they did was a very rigorous statistical process. It’s not just some guy picking stats out of thin air

[SGC300ier]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

I am out of this conversation. This is like the NFL using PFF for stats in football. You can make up any statistic to prove your point. Just weigh defense at 90% at offense at 10% and create a new stat. Don't like QBR in football, then use ESPN QB rankings. I am a physicist, so I know how these statistics work. Just throw in a variable and weight to prove your point and you think you win. Not playing that game. I look at BA, R, RBI, HR, BB, and Strikeouts. Every year you revisit those stats to see if the player is improving.

Ding, ding, ding. Well said.

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[oaklandasfan]

Your a low life troll.Hes horrible like you ,,and im from ny get it .keep buying his garbage.

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by BBases31

Except some stats are better measures of performance than others. As an example, RBIs are zero percent reflective of how good a player is or any indicator at all of future production. I understand what you’re saying but the “science” behind the variables of WAR and why they chose to weight them the way they did was a very rigorous statistical process. It’s not just some guy picking stats out of thin air

I believe the point he's making is that one statistical category/measurement isn't the end all be all measure of greatness. For instance, if you had the following players

Evan Longoria
Darrell Evans
David Ortiz

Who is the greatest among them? Most would say Ortiz, right? Well, his career WAR is also the lowest among them. What about Altuve versus Pedroia, who are you taking to start a franchise? Are you taking a 20 year old Vlad or a 20 year old Josh Hamilton? Character goes a long way too.

This thread is about Vlad Jr. though. He has a chance to to great based on his potential. Just like any other player, we'll see what happens.

[LC2nine10]

Originally Posted by BBases31

Except some stats are better measures of performance than others. As an example, RBIs are zero percent reflective of how good a player is or any indicator at all of future production. I understand what you’re saying but the “science” behind the variables of WAR and why they chose to weight them the way they did was a very rigorous statistical process. It’s not just some guy picking stats out of thin air

Why do different sites have different numbers, and who is "correct"?

[oaklandasfan]

2 hr 5 rbis

[jasonm2121]

Originally Posted by oaklandasfan

2 hr 5 rbis

Last night?!

[towerymt]

Originally Posted by jasonm2121

Last night?!

[Archangel1775]

Originally Posted by oaklandasfan

2 hr 5 rbis

Gotta zig when people zag

[DiegsHobby]

Leading off today! (resuming suspended game)

[towerymt]

Rolling graphs look somewhat promising.

Ground ball down, line drive up.
Chasing less, swinging less, but swinging more in the zone.

Timing. Pitch recognition / selection. Pressing too much? I don't think we really know if there's something wrong yet, or if he's just trying to hard, or what. But I like to use Fangraphs "graphs" to look at trends when considering trade targets in fantasy.





Go look at a guy like Josh Bell who never had a swing-and-miss problem, but now he's whiffing a ton, and is down 10% in zone contact. He's missing pitches in the strike zone at an alarming rate. Cody Bellinger couldn't seem to make hard contact for quite a while, maybe he's just starting to come around.

This season isn't normal so I'm not too worried long term about players who struggle in 2020.

Verdict: Hold

[Triple B]

Originally Posted by Archangel1775

I believe the point he's making is that one statistical category/measurement isn't the end all be all measure of greatness. For instance, if you had the following players

Evan Longoria
Darrell Evans
David Ortiz

Who is the greatest among them? Most would say Ortiz, right? Well, his career WAR is also the lowest among them. What about Altuve versus Pedroia, who are you taking to start a franchise? Are you taking a 20 year old Vlad or a 20 year old Josh Hamilton? Character goes a long way too.

This thread is about Vlad Jr. though. He has a chance to to great based on his potential. Just like any other player, we'll see what happens.

THIS.

There are things that the numbers simply can't measure or predict.

[BigSlim16]

Funny how nobody says anything when Vlad Jr hits a HR


(HR #3 for Vlad Jr by the way)

[eye4talent]

I was hoping he was going to hit that truck on the freeway.


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[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by oaklandasfan

2 hr 5 rbis

3 HR 6 RBI


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[DiegsHobby]

Over/Under

.780 OPS end of season?


I think he gets to ~.800 and I'd be happy.

[ninjacookies]

Keep goin, Vladdy.

[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by DiegsHobby

Over/Under

.780 OPS end of season?


I think he gets to ~.800 and I'd be happy.

With the current game’s HR and HBP, his August OPS is up to .939. (.289/.386/.553)

Take away his underwhelming first week, and I’d say he’s having a pretty decent season. He could very well finish the season with a .900 OPS.

UPDATE: He’s now up to an August OPS of .964 with his latest single. I’m not trying to do a play-by-play. It’s just worth pointing how quickly things can turn around. He got off to a slow start, but now he’s producing. Just move him up in the order a little, and he’ll be more involved in producing runs.


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[oaklandasfan]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Keep goin, Vladdy.

Now thats funny

[oaklandasfan]

With eye for talent

[blackandgold]

I have money in Vlad and I was hoping this last off season he would get his weight under control. After watching the first game of the season and seeing how big he was-Glad I didn’t sink any more money into him. He needs to lose weight bottom line same as Zion

[DiegsHobby]

Originally Posted by blackandgold

I have money in Vlad and I was hoping this last off season he would get his weight under control. After watching the first game of the season and seeing how big he was-Glad I didn’t sink any more money into him. He needs to lose weight bottom line same as Zion

I've heard Pablo Sandoval say about himself that he hits better heavy. Would be nice to see Vlad see what differences he sees, but I don't see the weight being an issue if he can continue to improve.