Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend

[OneSickDegen]

Originally Posted by StateEx

Just to add another dimension to this, it seems possible that there's a second trend that will hurt cards -- namely, that the card market itself is in flux thanks to overproduction, end of COVID boom, pelican bois getting bored, and underperformance from major hobby darlings. Some, but not all of this, is because of the broader economic picture.

Yeah all good points. This is great news for us clecters.

[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by Raleigh504

That's good to hear on your sales. I definitely had 90+% of my stuff below comps (my $1 BIN were all above $2 in recent sales and my graded stuff was below comps too), it just seems they were only looking for one thing or wanted things for 50% of current price.

I only saw one dealer buy another dealers items, but other than that most said they didn't get enough sales to justify buying up other peoples stuff.

I was a customer at the Hickory show last weekend. Maybe my 6th show there over the past 2 years?
It looked like almost 1/4 of the vendor tables were empty. First time I'd ever seen 5 cent boxes (10 cards for $1) from 2 different dealers, Most of the regular vintage sellers where there. Chandy had dime boxes. One regular dealer was claiming it was his last show for a while, saw a few dealers just packing up early 1PM - Pretty slow traffic by 1PM - usually it just gets busier, but maybe college football?
I picked some nice vintage 64' Mantle, 57 Frank RC, 57 Aaron - saw the same pelican kids wandering aimlessly trying to unload the same #@#@#@#@ forever.
Feels like it's turning into a buyers market some dealers are just gonna sit it out for awhile.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

I was a customer at the Hickory show last weekend. Maybe my 6th show there over the past 2 years?
It looked like almost 1/4 of the vendor tables were empty. First time I'd ever seen 5 cent boxes (10 cards for $1) from 2 different dealers, Most of the regular vintage sellers where there. Chandy had dime boxes. One regular dealer was claiming it was his last show for a while, saw a few dealers just packing up early 1PM - Pretty slow traffic by 1PM - usually it just gets busier, but maybe college football?
I picked some nice vintage 64' Mantle, 57 Frank RC, 57 Aaron - saw the same pelican kids wandering aimlessly trying to unload the same #@#@#@#@ forever.
Feels like it's turning into a buyers market some dealers are just gonna sit it out for awhile.

No wonder he couldn’t make any sales - he’s trying to rip people off with his 10 cards for $1 deal (10 cents per card) in his nickel box!

[bravesfan#1]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

I was a customer at the Hickory show last weekend. Maybe my 6th show there over the past 2 years?
It looked like almost 1/4 of the vendor tables were empty. First time I'd ever seen 5 cent boxes (10 cards for $1) from 2 different dealers, Most of the regular vintage sellers where there. Chandy had dime boxes. One regular dealer was claiming it was his last show for a while, saw a few dealers just packing up early 1PM - Pretty slow traffic by 1PM - usually it just gets busier, but maybe college football?
I picked some nice vintage 64' Mantle, 57 Frank RC, 57 Aaron - saw the same pelican kids wandering aimlessly trying to unload the same #@#@#@#@ forever.
Feels like it's turning into a buyers market some dealers are just gonna sit it out for awhile.

Hickory show was great buying some PC cards for myself, you may have stopped by my table?

Got about 10 T206 HOFer's, Staubach auto, Terry Bradshaw rookie, Tiger Woods 1st Master's badge, Kevin McHale PSA 9 rookie, and others. Bought a bunch of autos to flip too, sold most to a repacker in the afternoon.

I hate to say it but it felt empty because the promoter rolls over his vendor list show-to-show. Unless you specifically tell him you are not coming, he has a table reserved for you. He needs to start confirming tables in advance to avoid empty spots again, there is supposedly a waitlist that could have filled some of those spots. Attendance was still around 2k paid customers though, which is normal for this show.

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

I was a customer at the Hickory show last weekend. Maybe my 6th show there over the past 2 years?
It looked like almost 1/4 of the vendor tables were empty. First time I'd ever seen 5 cent boxes (10 cards for $1) from 2 different dealers, Most of the regular vintage sellers where there. Chandy had dime boxes. One regular dealer was claiming it was his last show for a while, saw a few dealers just packing up early 1PM - Pretty slow traffic by 1PM - usually it just gets busier, but maybe college football?
I picked some nice vintage 64' Mantle, 57 Frank RC, 57 Aaron - saw the same pelican kids wandering aimlessly trying to unload the same #@#@#@#@ forever.
Feels like it's turning into a buyers market some dealers are just gonna sit it out for awhile.

Originally Posted by bravesfan#1

Hickory show was great buying some PC cards for myself, you may have stopped by my table?

Got about 10 T206 HOFer's, Staubach auto, Terry Bradshaw rookie, Tiger Woods 1st Master's badge, Kevin McHale PSA 9 rookie, and others. Bought a bunch of autos to flip too, sold most to a repacker in the afternoon.

I hate to say it but it felt empty because the promoter rolls over his vendor list show-to-show. Unless you specifically tell him you are not coming, he has a table reserved for you. He needs to start confirming tables in advance to avoid empty spots again, there is supposedly a waitlist that could have filled some of those spots. Attendance was still around 2k paid customers though, which is normal for this show.

Yea I was on the waitlist for the show to set up and heard about 40+ dealers didn't show up or text him they weren't coming (maybe he assumed?). From what I heard overall in the market is that it may be slow (could get an uptick before Christmas with people buying gifts) until early next year. I have at least 1 more show I am setting up at this year and depending on timing may do another a week later. Otherwise I will be done setting up until March or so of next year. Will stick to selling on eBay until then with what I don't sell at the next show or two.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by OneSickDegen

Precisely. Still at 3.5% unemployment for now. Layoffs haven't started yet because earnings outlooks haven't changed. This is a new quarter and companies will be announcing lowered guidance due to slowing demand forecasts. Stock prices will drop on lowered guidance and when stock prices and earnings start to drop, layoffs start. When layoffs start, people cut out everything but necessities.

Cardboard is NOT a necessity.

The problem here is that we haven't seen this situation since 2009 and most of these people have no clue what's about to happen. The fed is literally trying to break the economy to get inflation low. They aren't overt about it in any way.

Oh and the whole escalation of rhetoric between the Biden administration and Putin isn't helping.

We have never seen this situation. Period. There is no comparing this to 2009. This is a perfect storm of unprecedented highs and lows all mashed together in one 3 year stretch.

The economy is already broken with supply chain issues, delays, and record materials and operations costs. You get in a car accident and the body shop tells you 8 months to fix that bumper. WHAT? That's where we're at. You hear so many stories of small companies where 10 employees are doing the job of 15 employees and they can't fill those 5 openings. They would love to cut business, keep the 10 they have, and not have a backlog of work to do.

I don't think companies will be laying off this time around. They'll simply be taking job postings down. Why would a company who is currently short by 5,000 employees need to lay anyone off? They'll cut the unfilled positions that are causing backlogs of work before they'll cut the actual people they have. The only thing getting laid-off will be those help wanted ads.

[MiamiMarlinsFan]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

We have never seen this situation. Period. There is no comparing this to 2009. This is a perfect storm of unprecedented highs and lows all mashed together in one 3 year stretch.

The economy is already broken with supply chain issues, delays, and record materials and operations costs. You get in a car accident and the body shop tells you 8 months to fix that bumper. WHAT? That's where we're at. You hear so many stories of small companies where 10 employees are doing the job of 15 employees and they can't fill those 5 openings. They would love to cut business, keep the 10 they have, and not have a backlog of work to do.

I don't think companies will be laying off this time around. They'll simply be taking job postings down. Why would a company who is currently short by 5,000 employees need to lay anyone off? They'll cut the unfilled positions that are causing backlogs of work before they'll cut the actual people they have. The only thing getting laid-off will be those help wanted ads.

I think almost all of the layoffs will be from the white collar sector. We’re already seeing it.

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

We have never seen this situation. Period. There is no comparing this to 2009. This is a perfect storm of unprecedented highs and lows all mashed together in one 3 year stretch.

The economy is already broken with supply chain issues, delays, and record materials and operations costs. You get in a car accident and the body shop tells you 8 months to fix that bumper. WHAT? That's where we're at. You hear so many stories of small companies where 10 employees are doing the job of 15 employees and they can't fill those 5 openings. They would love to cut business, keep the 10 they have, and not have a backlog of work to do.

I don't think companies will be laying off this time around. They'll simply be taking job postings down. Why would a company who is currently short by 5,000 employees need to lay anyone off? They'll cut the unfilled positions that are causing backlogs of work before they'll cut the actual people they have. The only thing getting laid-off will be those help wanted ads.

It is simple why layoffs have occurred. There are a few reasons:

• Companies over hired when revenues were great
• Most companies won't move people over from other departments.. i.e. layoff 100 salespeople, but have 150 openings in marketing/accounting/finance
• Shareholders expect X amount of profit, so they cut staff to meet it making people do multiple jobs (this happened even before the pandemic)

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by MiamiMarlinsFan

I think almost all of the layoffs will be from the white collar sector. We’re already seeing it.

100%... and would assume that collectors with these jobs would stop, sell off or cut back depending on financial situation.

[OneSickDegen]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

I don't think companies will be laying off this time around. They'll simply be taking job postings down. Why would a company who is currently short by 5,000 employees need to lay anyone off? They'll cut the unfilled positions that are causing backlogs of work before they'll cut the actual people they have. The only thing getting laid-off will be those help wanted ads.

Dude most corporations have so much fluff they can cut by half and not skip a beat. Look at all the diversity hiring that's been done the last few years. Companies create entire departments full of diversity job titles just to accommodate "inclusivity" and trust me, when the axe falls, these jobs will be the first GONE.

I do agree that people are going to stay on the payroll as long as possible but if the company is seeing demand shrink, and earnings wane, there is no logical reason not to reduce staff. It's just the way of the world.

[ironfireman]

Originally Posted by Raleigh504

Yea I was on the waitlist for the show to set up and heard about 40+ dealers didn't show up or text him they weren't coming (maybe he assumed?). From what I heard overall in the market is that it may be slow (could get an uptick before Christmas with people buying gifts) until early next year. I have at least 1 more show I am setting up at this year and depending on timing may do another a week later. Otherwise I will be done setting up until March or so of next year. Will stick to selling on eBay until then with what I don't sell at the next show or two.

That's crazy! It's a 300 table show... maybe 120 dealers? Why would 1/4-1/3 of the dealers just not show up? It wasn't like gas spiked. Or something crazy happened. I did notice one of the regulars was all wide eyed talking about not doing anymore shows - talking time off - thinking the market is going belly up. Saw a few pack up early. Feels like sales must be down, but the last few shows I've seen were packed - Sure only 100 - 140 table shows and 4-6 weeks ago... Did the promotor raise prices? or something else going on?

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

I did notice one of the regulars was all wide eyed talking about not doing anymore shows - talking time off - thinking the market is going belly up.

I am starting to believe more and more that the card market is not going to recover anytime soon. Obviously it will be higher in spring training than now but year over year will just keep dropping substantially. There is just way too much product being printed to absorb demand. Besides all the main sets doubling print runs and tripling vs a few years ago, you're adding so many more new sets on top of that to spread the money thinner. I'm not sure any corner of the market is safe

[vintg]

Originally Posted by BBases31

I am starting to believe more and more that the card market is not going to recover anytime soon. Obviously it will be higher in spring training than now but year over year will just keep dropping substantially. There is just way too much product being printed to absorb demand. Besides all the main sets doubling print runs and tripling vs a few years ago, you're adding so many more new sets on top of that to spread the money thinner. I'm not sure any corner of the market is safe

vintage is king

mantle, mays, aaron, j. robinson, koufax, t. williams, banks, clemente

and, umm, ruth, cobb, gehrig, dimaggio

[solt0131]

Originally Posted by ironfireman

That's crazy! It's a 300 table show... maybe 120 dealers? Why would 1/4-1/3 of the dealers just not show up? It wasn't like gas spiked. Or something crazy happened. I did notice one of the regulars was all wide eyed talking about not doing anymore shows - talking time off - thinking the market is going belly up. Saw a few pack up early. Feels like sales must be down, but the last few shows I've seen were packed - Sure only 100 - 140 table shows and 4-6 weeks ago... Did the promotor raise prices? or something else going on?

You gotta realize that a lot of the dealers may just be into their stuff too high and know they're not going to sell anything because of their high prices so they choose to stay home instead.

This is going to be a common theme going forward (dealers not showing up) at bigger shows.......it already started with the Vegas show.

[Raleigh504]

Originally Posted by solt0131

You gotta realize that a lot of the dealers may just be into their stuff too high and know they're not going to sell anything because of their high prices so they choose to stay home instead.

This is going to be a common theme going forward (dealers not showing up) at bigger shows.......it already started with the Vegas show.

And to add to that, if it costs $1,000 to travel for the show and prices/attendance down, it will be hard to cover those costs to be at the show.

[TarjetasBéisbol]

Originally Posted by OneSickDegen

TRIKE415 has a youtube video up yesterday about the Vegas show this past weekend. It looked way bad. I guess he made a couple deals on F1 and profited but he looked visibly beaten lol. He even said he wanted to paint it in a much positive light but just couldn't get himself to do it.

The room looked empty and very sad.

A far cry from the show last year for obvious reasons.

Thanks for the info, decent video.

Originally Posted by solt0131

My table in Chantilly next weekend is going to be an absolute blowout. If people don't want to buy my .50 cent cards to make money and/or add to their collections then that is their fault, somebody else will buy them. My goal is to leave with nothing coming home.

What is your table number? I will see if I can help you reach your goal.

[solt0131]

Originally Posted by TarjetasBéisbol

Thanks for the info, decent video.



What is your table number? I will see if I can help you reach your goal.

I will have an 8 foot table like I did before in booth 107/108 which is in front of the concession area like one row back.

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

We have never seen this situation. Period. There is no comparing this to 2009. This is a perfect storm of unprecedented highs and lows all mashed together in one 3 year stretch.

The economy is already broken with supply chain issues, delays, and record materials and operations costs. You get in a car accident and the body shop tells you 8 months to fix that bumper. WHAT? That's where we're at. You hear so many stories of small companies where 10 employees are doing the job of 15 employees and they can't fill those 5 openings. They would love to cut business, keep the 10 they have, and not have a backlog of work to do.

I don't think companies will be laying off this time around. They'll simply be taking job postings down. Why would a company who is currently short by 5,000 employees need to lay anyone off? They'll cut the unfilled positions that are causing backlogs of work before they'll cut the actual people they have. The only thing getting laid-off will be those help wanted ads.

I would respectfully disagree.

Any economy expert worth 2 cents always says the transportation/supply chain industry is a predecessor to the actually economy. Typically running 6-8 months* ahead.

If you are hearing about supply chain issues, its pre-mid term election rhetoric. I have made quite the career in the Transportation industry so let me explain.

Go back to Feb/Mar 22 and rewind it to about April 20 right after the covid outbreak. My phone wouldn't stop ringing. Shippers I had been trying to work with but getting rebuffed, calling daily. This wasnt the normal. They were looking for capacity. Or in other words trucks to haul their freight.

If your not in the world of transportation its much more vast then you realize. Ocean imports, inbound, outbound, rail, flatbed etc. Could go on for hours.

Anyhow about 6 months ago it just stopped. Almost exclusively across the board, most the power shippers cut orders, realized they had way to much inventory in warehouses. Now there is way too much capacity in the market. Rates are in freefall. No one is starting new business. This is all a very, very bad indicator for the US economy.

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/mo...l=lcp-11046286

Very good article here.


The synopsis here is, people are no longer buying like they were, concern with the economy and over reaching government stimulus during covid. You wont see it for a few months because we should have a really aggressive holiday pricing season--and a lot of pre black friday sales---I already saw Target running a 'pre black friday' sale this week!

Once this breaks, and retailers move inventory, they are going to replace it on demand for a little while because they are going to take it in the shorts earning wise on their current inventory.

Long story short as that all sorts itself out, the battle to acquire freight and keep trucks moving will be intense. Im thinking the trucking industry is in a full blown recession and starting to cut the excess by Feb/Mar. I think by May were looking at some real trouble.

Many of the 'Jobs' you see out there and positions that need filled are low level jobs. What happened during the employment drop off is a lot of low level people got hired into better roles due to need. When push comes to shove and you have two people making reasonable money and one is qualified, one isn't. The one who isnt is going to get cut first. By that point though most the 'Hiring' signs at Macy's will be taken down because they wont be needed.

All cause and effect. I'm certainly concerned about where we are headed. We would rather be distracted by two parties constantly at each others throats then address the countries problems.

To bring it all back around to cards. The market has miles further to fall. People will pay the bills and put food on the table long before cutting out $5k for a box of Prizm. The market on the other side of what seems like this inevitable recession will be a fun one.

[OneSickDegen]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

All cause and effect. I'm certainly concerned about where we are headed. We would rather be distracted by two parties constantly at each others throats then address the countries problems.

To bring it all back around to cards. The market has miles further to fall. People will pay the bills and put food on the table long before cutting out $5k for a box of Prizm. The market on the other side of what seems like this inevitable recession will be a fun one.

Great post. I have been sitting 90% in cash for some time now and don't see any real reason for dipping my toe back into equity markets for at least after the first of the year. I agree. Lots of pain ahead and to much risk to the downside.

I think we are going to see dealers and breakers get pinched, capitulate and disappear probably not all at once but via attrition inside the next 12 months. The market for new product goes as breakers go IMO

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by Dbacksbaseball

I would respectfully disagree.

Any economy expert worth 2 cents always says the transportation/supply chain industry is a predecessor to the actually economy. Typically running 6-8 weeks ahead.

If you are hearing about supply chain issues, its pre-mid term election rhetoric. I have made quite the career in the Transportation industry so let me explain.

Go back to Feb/Mar 22 and rewind it to about April 20 right after the covid outbreak. My phone wouldn't stop ringing. Shippers I had been trying to work with but getting rebuffed, calling daily. This wasnt the normal. They were looking for capacity. Or in other words trucks to haul their freight.

If your not in the world of transportation its much more vast then you realize. Ocean imports, inbound, outbound, rail, flatbed etc. Could go on for hours.

Anyhow about 6 months ago it just stopped. Almost exclusively across the board, most the power shippers cut orders, realized they had way to much inventory in warehouses. Now there is way too much capacity in the market. Rates are in freefall. No one is starting new business. This is all a very, very bad indicator for the US economy.

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/mo...l=lcp-11046286

Very good article here.


The synopsis here is, people are no longer buying like they were, concern with the economy and over reaching government stimulus during covid. You wont see it for a few months because we should have a really aggressive holiday pricing season--and a lot of pre black friday sales---I already saw Target running a 'pre black friday' sale this week!

Once this breaks, and retailers move inventory, they are going to replace it on demand for a little while because they are going to take it in the shorts earning wise on their current inventory.

Long story short as that all sorts itself out, the battle to acquire freight and keep trucks moving will be intense. Im thinking the trucking industry is in a full blown recession and starting to cut the excess by Feb/Mar. I think by May were looking at some real trouble.

Many of the 'Jobs' you see out there and positions that need filled are low level jobs. What happened during the employment drop off is a lot of low level people got hired into better roles due to need. When push comes to shove and you have two people making reasonable money and one is qualified, one isn't. The one who isnt is going to get cut first. By that point though most the 'Hiring' signs at Macy's will be taken down because they wont be needed.

All cause and effect. I'm certainly concerned about where we are headed. We would rather be distracted by two parties constantly at each others throats then address the countries problems.

To bring it all back around to cards. The market has miles further to fall. People will pay the bills and put food on the table long before cutting out $5k for a box of Prizm. The market on the other side of what seems like this inevitable recession will be a fun one.

Well, now I'm interested. If we ever cross paths hopefully I'll remember to ask you a little bit about the transportation industry. My only quibble with the solid post is the bolded seems to be somewhat contradictory.

I'm not as gloomy as the naysayers. I do think we're going to see something that a lot of people haven't seen before....a small recession with a fast recovery. Keep in mind this was the norm for the second half of the 20th century. Plus I still see a chance for a "soft landing", which is something nobody has ever seen in America because it's never happened. I would say the conditions are very ripe for a soft landing at the present moment.

[Dbacksbaseball]

Originally Posted by rwperu34

Well, now I'm interested. If we ever cross paths hopefully I'll remember to ask you a little bit about the transportation industry. My only quibble with the solid post is the bolded seems to be somewhat contradictory.

I'm not as gloomy as the naysayers. I do think we're going to see something that a lot of people haven't seen before....a small recession with a fast recovery. Keep in mind this was the norm for the second half of the 20th century. Plus I still see a chance for a "soft landing", which is something nobody has ever seen in America because it's never happened. I would say the conditions are very ripe for a soft landing at the present moment.

Sorry first line should be months not weeks. Just a typo. Thanks for pointing it out. I will edit it.

I'm generally positive and I certainly dont live in fear of a recession, but we have gone from all time high pricing in Feb/Mar to sub 'pull back' pricing in 6 months as shippers cut shipments and capacity (availability of trucks to haul freight) goes from no capacity to gross amounts of capacity available. Industry is headed from one extreme to the other. That concerns me big time for the overall economy.

[OneSickDegen]

Recessions are a good thing boys. Keep your powder dry and your head on a swivel for buying opportunities and learn to have fun amid the panic and chaos.

[discodanman45]

The strongest part of the sports card hobby is baseball cards. Even my 1980's baseball cards are holding value. Raw card prices are great right now and that is all I am buying. The newbies into vintage only buy slabs since they can't tell if a card is real or they think all raw cards are trimmed. For me, the hobby hasn't seen much change over the past year. Things are still as strong as they were since the beginning of this year.

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by OneSickDegen

Recessions are a good thing boys. Keep your powder dry and your head on a swivel for buying opportunities and learn to have fun amid the panic and chaos.

I unfortunately do not have enough cash on hand for what is happening!

[thewild3]

The reason why most dealers aren’t moving any cards at shows is because they are asking for museum prices on ultra modern stuff.