Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend

[nabzy28]

^ This is becoming a huge part of it all, for sure. The people/collectors that are in this group - that have no problem 'losing' $20-$100 here and there - AND CAN AFFORD TO - by understanding it's a hobby they enjoy, instead of some other horrible habit they could have - it's great to have them coming into the shows, etc.

Hell, I'm still more aligned with this approach, even though I do not break boxes/cases any longer. Haven't for upwards of a decade. I just do it via singles. I'll pay "full market" or over comps if it's something I really want for my PC and plan on holding it for a long time. I've found I have a decent eye for it, as most of it has appreciated quite well over the years. Just a benefit of 'buying what you like'. It took me a LONG time to get laser focused and really refine my collecting.

I'd say, at least at this point, the 'losses' for the casual collector just hitting up shows and buying their favorite team/player are FAR less than what they were getting into 2-4 years ago. That's something, for sure. It's a lot easier to justify a $50 'loss' on an injured players card/box/whatever vs. losing 85%+ on everything because you bought at peak everything and you weren't trying to flip.

[Stifle]

Originally Posted by ScooterD

I don’t know what your talking about

You are the one who stated that my response seemed odd for this forum. It seems pretty spot on when grading is such a vital aspect within the hobby. I upgraded my incoming water pipes to copper roughly a decade ago.

As far as upcoming shows, multiple shows in Michigan. The Lansing show has been a good find for 90’s football.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by nabzy28

^ This is becoming a huge part of it all, for sure. The people/collectors that are in this group - that have no problem 'losing' $20-$100 here and there - AND CAN AFFORD TO - by understanding it's a hobby they enjoy, instead of some other horrible habit they could have - it's great to have them coming into the shows, etc.

Hell, I'm still more aligned with this approach, even though I do not break boxes/cases any longer. Haven't for upwards of a decade. I just do it via singles. I'll pay "full market" or over comps if it's something I really want for my PC and plan on holding it for a long time. I've found I have a decent eye for it, as most of it has appreciated quite well over the years. Just a benefit of 'buying what you like'. It took me a LONG time to get laser focused and really refine my collecting.

I'd say, at least at this point, the 'losses' for the casual collector just hitting up shows and buying their favorite team/player are FAR less than what they were getting into 2-4 years ago. That's something, for sure. It's a lot easier to justify a $50 'loss' on an injured players card/box/whatever vs. losing 85%+ on everything because you bought at peak everything and you weren't trying to flip.

This is a pretty good take....after all, spending money is always a "loss" financially speaking....what matters is how much pleasure you get from spending that money.

The X amount of dollars I spend every month on the hobby gives me pleasure....just like going out for a nice meal, going on vacation, going to a game or cultural performance, etc.

They're all financial "losses"....but they all give me pleasure....and the pleasure they get from these types of expenditures is why nobody thinks of them as being "losses".

[NickyCards]

I couldn’t care less if I bought a card for $120 and sold it for $100 6 months later to buy something else I want

[hermanotarjeta]

So when people say the market is strong, are they implying that the volume of transactions is insane, no matter if people are making or losing money?

In the real world, more people selling at a loss versus people actually making money implies a down market, or a bear market, right?

So there may be a ton of people attending shows and getting into breaks, but if most people are losing money when they sell or get nothing in breaks, isn’t that a negative trend?

Perhaps the companies are primarily the ones making money if secondary market values for cards out of the packs continue to decline?

[ScooterD]

Originally Posted by Stifle

You are the one who stated that my response seemed odd for this forum. It seems pretty spot on when grading is such a vital aspect within the hobby. I upgraded my incoming water pipes to copper roughly a decade ago.

As far as upcoming shows, multiple shows in Michigan. The Lansing show has been a good find for 90’s football.

Grading a sports card and upgrading plumbing - which is wholly unrelated to sports cards - is a weird congruity to try to draw and sell.

[nabzy28]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

So when people say the market is strong, are they implying that the volume of transactions is insane, no matter if people are making or losing money?

In the real world, more people selling at a loss versus people actually making money implies a down market, or a bear market, right?

So there may be a ton of people attending shows and getting into breaks, but if most people are losing money when they sell or get nothing in breaks, isn’t that a negative trend?

Perhaps the companies are primarily the ones making money if secondary market values for cards out of the packs continue to decline?

Without the destruction of money, people would realize we're already in hyperinflation.

[Twalk1975]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

So when people say the market is strong, are they implying that the volume of transactions is insane, no matter if people are making or losing money?

In the real world, more people selling at a loss versus people actually making money implies a down market, or a bear market, right?

So there may be a ton of people attending shows and getting into breaks, but if most people are losing money when they sell or get nothing in breaks, isn’t that a negative trend?

Perhaps the companies are primarily the ones making money if secondary market values for cards out of the packs continue to decline?

If we're viewing it as a hobby would participation be the appropriate metric?

[alpine]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

I’ve noticed the plentiful Pokémon dealers have made the sports cards guys more willing to deal as they watch the pokemon guys fluff and swim around in cash.

Went to a show looking for singles and unexpectedly found some good deals on some sealed boxes. Dealers were more than willing to give a discount as they actually agreed on my asking prices - no haggling which is the best!

Picked up:

2005 donruss greats hobby
2018 heritage hobby
2018 gypsy queen hobby
2022 bowman chrome hobby

All for below eBay prices.

People were asking for James wood and PCA. Good amount of serial-numbered Ohtani but no one was buying.

Didn’t see a single gilded storm.

Basketball was ded.

Sounds good you found some deals. My son & I went to the Fairfield card Show. It is a good place to hold a card show. My wife and daughter can window shop while we go to the show.

The only problem is getting there. The I-80 traffic can be bad West of Sacramento.

I found a dealer who was selling non-rookie 70's HOF slabs in high grades for 20% under comps. I also found a dealer with some older wax such as a full 1986 Fleer BB Cello for $140 with a bunch of HOF stars on top. I should have bought him out as I passed on a few things.
It only takes a dealer or two to make a good show & make it worth your while to attend.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

So when people say the market is strong, are they implying that the volume of transactions is insane, no matter if people are making or losing money?

In the real world, more people selling at a loss versus people actually making money implies a down market, or a bear market, right?

So there may be a ton of people attending shows and getting into breaks, but if most people are losing money when they sell or get nothing in breaks, isn’t that a negative trend?

Perhaps the companies are primarily the ones making money if secondary market values for cards out of the packs continue to decline?

The lingo isn't necessarily going to reflect the same for the S&P 500 or other index where strong gains accompanied by high volume is a strong market. Trading cards are different since not everyone is in it to make money, though, I'd venture to guess most participants hope to do so. High volume ideally with steady to rising prices is a strong card market to me. That's all the flippers need to make money. The most skilled ones can even do so in slowly falling market. More casual collectors can more easily sell and trade when volume is high even if prices in general are slipping a bit.

The danger is if a bunch of people ditch the hobby like what happened in the early to mid 90s. The products were better but there was far less money being spent. Singles prices stagnated and often fell dramatically. Shops closed. Card shows became challenging to make enough money to justify the time. The market went from an estimated $1.2 billion in 1991 to maybe $200 million twenty years later. I've read the global market was around $10 billion market in 2023 and growing at an estimated 10-13% per year. So long as that money is pouring in, the general market will be strong regardless of what certain singles prices are doing. The people with business acumen and intent on profit have multiple avenues for success.

[theshowandme]

I would guess that 90% of people in cards today care about the $

[OhioLawyerF5]

I would guess 90% of people in cards today don't care about the money. But 90% on Blowout do. There are millions of collectors out there just collecting. The investor crowd is a very visible minority.

[Big35Hurt]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

I would guess that 90% of people in cards today care about the $

It feels that way when I go to card shows but not at 90%. I see so many, young and old, with their black cases trying to make deals with dealers. There are people like myself that go there to find cards for their PC whether it's building sets or player collecting. If I were to venture a guess, maybe 30-40% of those I overhear only seem to care about getting deals regardless of the player or sport.

[theshowandme]

If you’re not on Blowout and/or you’re not going to card shows, your insights on collecting are probably not fun

I see 12-15 year olds all the time using CardLadder at tables

Things have changed

$ talks

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

If you’re not on Blowout and/or you’re not going to card shows, your insights on collecting are probably not fun

I see 12-15 year olds all the time using CardLadder at tables

Things have changed

$ talks

I do both. And those two things are skewing your perspective. I know a lot of collectors who do neither, but just go to the card shop or ebay and buy cards they collect. I know people who just buy blasters at walmart. These types of collectors actually dwarf the blowout/card show crowds.

Also, how is that different from all of us with a Beckett in the 80s?

[Qubits]

A couple of my buddies set up at 1-3 shows a month in my region and they sell almost exclusively ultra-modern singles. I've asked them what their estimate would be of the % of people who buy from them at shows who are just looking for deals to "flip" cards. The answer I got was 75-80%.

Just adding another anecdote.

[livfreely]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

I would guess 90% of people in cards today don't care about the money. But 90% on Blowout do. There are millions of collectors out there just collecting. The investor crowd is a very visible minority.

I guess I’m a swinger! I care about the money on certain cards in order to get the money for my PC cards.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[theshowandme]

I would believe 75-80%

My 90% might be high

The National will undoubtedly break attendance records for the 3rd year in a row

Those new people flocking to the National post-Covid are not there to look at sets or retail products

When people complain about the WiFi, it's because they cannot get Card Ladder, VCP, and 130 Point to work because it's all about those $100 bills

[Rage]

But what percent of total hobby participants actually go to card shows? I've been collecting pretty hard since 2018 but just starting getting involved in card shows this year, and only a couple times so far at that. Geography also plays a part as here in California there are much less regular shows than other parts of the country. I'm not arguing either way, just wondering about representation and perspective.

[Rage]

Speaking of card shows I will be setup as a vendor this weekend in San Diego for the Summer Slam Show at the Handlery Hotel. Second time this year selling at a show, come check it out if you're around, looks like 55% TCG / 45% Sports according to the hosts.

[Twalk1975]

I could believe 75-80% of participants are not making money on this hobby.

[theshowandme]

Caring about the $ and making $ should not be confused with one another

[Big35Hurt]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

I would believe 75-80%

My 90% might be high

The National will undoubtedly break attendance records for the 3rd year in a row

Those new people flocking to the National post-Covid are not there to look at sets or retail products

When people complain about the WiFi, it's because they cannot get Card Ladder, VCP, and 130 Point to work because it's all about those $100 bills

Good point. Not going to lie...I laugh at the tantrums being thrown.

[ScooterD]

Went to the National, and I bought one card. I don’t have the apps you all are talking about, but I was frustrated with the lack of WiFi because PayPal wouldn’t work. I’m not carrying $5-10k around in my pocket.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by Rage

But what percent of total hobby participants actually go to card shows? I've been collecting pretty hard since 2018 but just starting getting involved in card shows this year, and only a couple times so far at that. Geography also plays a part as here in California there are much less regular shows than other parts of the country. I'm not arguing either way, just wondering about representation and perspective.

This is the correct question to ask. The people who attend card shows are not representative of the majority of participants in the hobby. The fact that people keep using card show anecdotes just tells me they aren't looking at it properly.