2019-20 Panini Chronicles Basketball- Pre-release Thread

[prospectorgems]

Originally Posted by greg8731

I wish there were a definitive answer. I also wish they would've just put the serial numbers on like last year. But then I probably wouldn't have been able to buy a Ja Morant bronze Phoenix for 15$

Yeah, it does suck not having serial numbers this year, but I agree with you, been picking up bronze on the cheap just like you cause too many people are uneducated on the rarity. Hopefully people catch on by the time the season starts and understand just how rare these are.

[mbuch21]

I agree the Phoenix bronze are incredible rare. I’ve been looking for a Herro one for months to no avail. But I think in the other Chronicles sets, such as Luminance, the bronze is much less rare.
The disparity between rare Phoenix bronze and plentiful Luminance bronze is quite confusing and I’d hope Panini would go back to numbering, or at least be consistent with the color rarity signals. Outside of gold, it’s always an annoying run around trying to figure it out. I was buying up Genesis thinking they were /50. Now I am pretty confident that they are probably closer to /150.

[dunkindutchmen]

Originally Posted by prospectorgems

Has anyone figured out the general consensus on the rarities of the chrome parallels? This is for cards like Flux, Hometown Heroes, Crusade and Phoenix.

I know that Chronicles was printed to the hilt this year and so much retail was opened so I think it can be determined below what is the easier and harder parallel pulls.

The odds of course are hard to determine due to the fact I am sure many are sitting in PSA/BGS's inventory waiting to be graded. Doing a general ebay search, I rated the below parallels from easiest to hardest to pull and I feel it is fairly accurate.

I think the pinks are easier pulls than green, but they both may be the same.

1. Silver - easiest to pull
2. Pink - print run 250 or less?
3. Green - print run 250 or less?
4. Teal - print run 50?
5. Bronze - hardest to pull - 2018/19 was numbered to 5. This year, print run 20?

looking at ebay listings, I really think the Bronze are right around 50.

[Howie7107]

Originally Posted by dunkindutchmen

looking at ebay listings, I really think the Bronze are right around 50.

Nope.

[mbuch21]

Agree. No way 50.

[Howie7107]

Originally Posted by mbuch21

Agree. No way 50.

Not really sure how you could look at eBay listings and conclude that there’s 50 anyway. Unless you think only ~10% of fat packs have been opened?

[mbuch21]

I’m thinking /20.
Basically this is the Tiger/Zebra unnumbered equivalent in Phoenix.

[greg8731]

Maybe he's including stuff other than Flux, Crusade, and Phoenix? There's a ton of Marquee, Recon, Luminance, ect. Which it was the same for that stuff last year I believe.
Agree that 50 is too high for the big 3 at least. The 20s seems like it'd be more accurate.

Also I guess it'd be big 4 to include Hometown Heroes. My least favorite of the 4 but certain colors look pretty good imo. Think the rarity is in line with the other 3

[dunkindutchmen]

Originally Posted by Howie7107

Not really sure how you could look at eBay listings and conclude that there’s 50 anyway. Unless you think only ~10% of fat packs have been opened?

Here's an example, look at Zion Hometown Heroes bronze and purple. 5 bronze have ever been listed on ebay, only 2 purple. Look at Phoenix bronze vs purple for Zion. 4 bronze, 6 purple.

And you can keep doing this with any player. I think more or less the bronze and purple, in the end, are roughly the same print runs. Do a sample of 10 players and then average it out. Of, course it's not exact, but it gives you a clue.

[TSonn]

Originally Posted by dunkindutchmen

Here's an example, look at Zion Hometown Heroes bronze and purple. 5 bronze have ever been listed on ebay, only 2 purple. Look at Phoenix bronze vs purple for Zion. 4 bronze, 6 purple.

And you can keep doing this with any player. I think more or less the bronze and purple, in the end, are roughly the same print runs. Do a sample of 10 players and then average it out. Of, course it's not exact, but it gives you a clue.

I've been comparing to hobby parallels too since they are actually numbered - but the problem/variable with this comparison is how much retail has been ripped compared to hobby. Bronze chromes only come in the $5 fat packs. At worst, if people are paying 5x MSRP, that's $25 a pack - compared to hobby packs that sell at $150+ per pack.

Way more fat packs have been ripped than hobby packs which probably means more of the bronze parallels have been pulled than the purple parallels.

[PSA2Pac]

Originally Posted by prospectorgems

Has anyone figured out the general consensus on the rarities of the chrome parallels? This is for cards like Flux, Hometown Heroes, Crusade and Phoenix.

I know that Chronicles was printed to the hilt this year and so much retail was opened so I think it can be determined below what is the easier and harder parallel pulls.

The odds of course are hard to determine due to the fact I am sure many are sitting in PSA/BGS's inventory waiting to be graded. Doing a general ebay search, I rated the below parallels from easiest to hardest to pull and I feel it is fairly accurate.

I think the pinks are easier pulls than green, but they both may be the same.

1. Silver - easiest to pull
2. Pink - print run 250 or less?
3. Green - print run 250 or less?
4. Teal - print run 50?
5. Bronze - hardest to pull - 2018/19 was numbered to 5. This year, print run 20?

Trying to find a bronze Cam Reddish vs, lets say, a gold /10 has been night and day. I havent seen a Crusade bronze listed as a bronze ever, and Ive also went through as many 'Cam Reddish Crusade' listings on ebay, also havent seen a single bronze lurking. Only one I came across was the one I found in a lot that I picked up.

Looking at Luka, 9 bronze Crusade have sold on ebay thus far. Obviously some of those could have been the same one being sold/listed more than once but guessing most of those were original copies.. so guessing print run is around 20 or so?

Shoulda just numbered em lol

[PSA2Pac]

Originally Posted by mbuch21

The disparity between rare Phoenix bronze and plentiful Luminance bronze is quite confusing

Is a huge disparity too.

Ive only opened Chronicles fat packs (havent touched my hangers/blasters) and a good amount of packs would end up having 2 bronze cards per pack, but 100% of the time it was bronze paper cards. Didnt get any bronze chrome cards in the 50 or so fat packs I ripped

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

Here's current POP, obviously we won't really get to see any true sample size for several months but all we have for now. All Chronicles 5xx (chromes), going to present as Color - PSA Total Count (Max) / BGS Total Count (Max) = PSA + BGS Total, so we can compare total subs between colors, as well as the most graded for any particular player (ruling out SSP)

Pink - 23 (3) / 1 (1) = 24
Green - 13 (4) / 0 (0) = 13
Bronze - 7 (2) / 4 (1) = 11
Teal - 6 (1) / 1 (1) = 7

Red - 64 (7) / 10 (3) = 74
Blue - 42 (7) / 11 (2) = 53
Purple - 27 (4) / 5 (2) = 32
Gold - 26 (3) / 5 (2) = 31

So, with such a small sample size you can't draw very many conclusions, but I'd feel safe in saying that Teal and Bronze will win out as being more rare than Pink. Not sure about Green but if it does end up in the middle that would make sense. All of that lines up with my personal rips as well - 6 pinks out of 560 cards vs 2 Green out of 360 cards vs 0 Bronze out of 975 cards.

The relationship between retail POP vs Hobby is interesting. I know Hobby was out 2 weeks before Retail but the differences are significantly more than can be explained by a 2 week lag. My guess would be some combination of 1) uncertainty on print run of retail leading to less subs at Express pricing and 2) TONS of retail yet to be ripped. Regardless of the reason, the ones that have sold so far are extremely underwhelming in terms of price, so we'll have to wait and see how much demand these can actually drive. If you're a collector it'll at least feel cool to own something likely to have a sub 50 POP

This was ~2 weeks ago. I can look into updating it after Zoom marathon today

[TSonn]

Originally Posted by PSA2Pac

Is a huge disparity too.

Ive only opened Chronicles fat packs (havent touched my hangers/blasters) and a good amount of packs would end up having 2 bronze cards per pack, but 100% of the time it was bronze paper cards. Didnt get any bronze chrome cards in the 50 or so fat packs I ripped

That's because the bronze paper and bronze foils are basically common cards. Bronze chromes (HH, Phoenix, Crusade, Flux) seem to fall 1 every couple fat pack boxes (30ish packs?).

[WhiteoutJustin]

Originally Posted by TSonn

That's because the bronze paper and bronze foils are basically common cards. Bronze chromes (HH, Phoenix, Crusade, Flux) seem to fall 1 every couple fat pack boxes (30ish packs?).

Not sure on that, of course all sample size considerations aside, I opened 50 fat packs the other day from stuff I had bought at very little markup and didn’t hit one bronze chrome let alone any silver chromes. Did hit two autos of Naz Reid though haha


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[TSonn]

Originally Posted by WhiteoutJustin

Not sure on that, of course all sample size considerations aside, I opened 50 fat packs the other day from stuff I had bought at very little markup and didn’t hit one bronze chrome let alone any silver chromes. Did hit two autos of Naz Reid though haha


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Ah, yeah. I opened 4 boxes and hit 1 - I assumed the odds were somewhere around there after hearing how many other people hit from here. Maybe it's 1-2 per fat pack box case?

[PSA2Pac]

Yup I also opened 40-50 fatpacks and didn't pull a single bronze (or silver) chrome card

Did pull a Grandmama auto tho lol

Too bad it wasnt 1991..

[mbuch21]

Wait - is silver crusade rarer than bronze crusade? Any observations?

[PSA2Pac]

No. Silver crusades, I believe, can be found in any SKU. Bronze chrome cards are only in fat packs and are hard as hell to pull.

I didnt pull any silver in the fat packs I opened but ive bought a ton of singles to know bronze are rarer

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by mbuch21

Wait - is silver crusade rarer than bronze crusade? Any observations?

Silver is much more attractive, but not nearly as rare. Curious as to how the silver Phoenix and Crusades are going to appreciate long term, at current prices I’ll probably take a chance on a few.


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[mbuch21]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

Silver is much more attractive, but not nearly as rare. Curious as to how the silver Phoenix and Crusades are going to appreciate long term, at current prices I’ll probably take a chance on a few.


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From what I can see, there doesn’t seem to be much enthusiasm for any of the Chronicles lines, including Phoenix, Crusade, and Luminance (unique) which should have gotten some attention. That’s why relative to even the middle tier panini products the Chronicles stuff still trades at a pretty meaningful discount. I wouldn’t bet on long term appreciation of any of those if unnumbered. Nobody cares now and nobody will remember 5 years from now how many bronze were in a fat pack. They will just remember a million Chronicles sitting in EBay lots. I doubt even Bronze Phoenix will touch mid tier unnumbered sp chrome like Optic Holo or Select Premier.

[TSonn]

Originally Posted by mbuch21

From what I can see, there doesn’t seem to be much enthusiasm for any of the Chronicles lines, including Phoenix, Crusade, and Luminance (unique) which should have gotten some attention. That’s why relative to even the middle tier panini products the Chronicles stuff still trades at a pretty meaningful discount. I wouldn’t bet on long term appreciation of any of those if unnumbered. Nobody cares now and nobody will remember 5 years from now how many bronze were in a fat pack. They will just remember a million Chronicles sitting in EBay lots. I doubt even Bronze Phoenix will touch mid tier unnumbered sp chrome like Optic Holo or Select Premier.

If you were buying chronicles last summer you could've said the same thing but you would've been way wrong. 18-19 Luka base crusade and phoenix go for $80 a piece and base obsidian go for $400-$500.

I think 19-20 chronicles is a far inferior product compared to 18-19 chronicles, but if Zion or Ja come out next season looking like MVP candidates I'm sure the chrome cards from Chronicles will skyrocket. Now the unnumbered chrome parallels? Probably not, especially compared to 18-19 where they were serial numbered, but the chrome parallels will still be fun to trade or discuss with fellow collectors.

[Akphillips86]

Originally Posted by mbuch21

From what I can see, there doesn’t seem to be much enthusiasm for any of the Chronicles lines, including Phoenix, Crusade, and Luminance (unique) which should have gotten some attention. That’s why relative to even the middle tier panini products the Chronicles stuff still trades at a pretty meaningful discount. I wouldn’t bet on long term appreciation of any of those if unnumbered. Nobody cares now and nobody will remember 5 years from now how many bronze were in a fat pack. They will just remember a million Chronicles sitting in EBay lots. I doubt even Bronze Phoenix will touch mid tier unnumbered sp chrome like Optic Holo or Select Premier.

Silver could go either way because of its reputation in other lines. People are scratching their head too much at what the Bronze print run is for it to get real heat. They are valuable, but will probably always be undervalued in relation to print run.

The real money is definitely in the serial numbered stuff. See Luka. Once Zion goes atomic, these will catch fire.


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[90skid]

I think people knock the paper subsets too much, they can be just as fun to collect as well. Here's my latest rainbow of Luminance Lebron. As far as I know the 1/1 hasn't been discovered yet.



Anyone else working on Chronicles Rainbows?

[ATeamHasNoName]

Originally Posted by 90skid

I think people knock the paper subsets too much, they can be just as fun to collect as well. Here's my latest rainbow of Luminance Lebron. As far as I know the 1/1 hasn't been discovered yet.



Anyone else working on Chronicles Rainbows?

Nice! How many of that was from busting packs?


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