Yordan Alvarez

[Redbandit]

Originally Posted by BBases31

The same formula that's suppressed his price for years and always will going forward. He's an Astro, a DH, and his rookie cards are heavily oversupplied because he was in every product in 2020. If Yordan was on any other team, played the field full time, and had his rookie cards a year two or earlier, his stuff would be all be 3-4x the price. He's also going to be 26 next year, which in card terms is ancient

I get that...but golds for $20 is crazy to me

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by Redbandit

Checked out what his rookies were going for because I havent checked in a few months

Cant believe his topps golds are only going for $20-25.00.....

Originally Posted by Archimedes

Same. Really confused.

I never like to agree w/ BBases but Ive been saying it for years. Wether anyone wants to agree, he has several things going against him. There are real issues/concerns. He's an Astro! Thats a much bigger problem than people (Yordan collectors or Astros fans) want to admit. The hobby hates Houston. He's a DH. Name someone "other than Ortiz" that's DH hobby great. He's old (in hobby terms). He's in EVERY single product of 2020. The odds of him reaching 2018/2019 guys pricing is heavily against him. He's a great hitter no doubt. The hatred for the Astros is truly real. The proof is in the pricing. If he was so undervalued, don't you think it would've turned around by now? MVP run, WS run, WS homer, "he's so cheap", etc.

[Bambino22]

As collectors start eating up more of his cards with little to no intention to resell. Shouldn't prices go up, everything else (all other variables) staying constant?

I never understand this with cards. I must be wrong but I don't know why. Only thing I can think of is heavy majority >90% of cards are being bought and then resold in next couple years. So the collectors who eat up cards forever hurting supply are very small and insignificant.

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by Bambino22

As collectors start eating up more of his cards with little to no intention to resell. Shouldn't prices go up, everything else (all other variables) staying constant?

I never understand this with cards. I must be wrong but I don't know why. Only thing I can think of is heavy majority >90% of cards are being bought and then resold in next couple years. So the collectors who eat up cards forever hurting supply are very small and insignificant.

I'm convinced "recent sales" is a factor. So many people look to recent sales to determine how much they should spend for a card. While the supply shrinks, there's so many people out there that think, "This card sold for $XXX dollars, so I'm not going to pay more for this one."

Even with the shrinking supply, people have to be willing to spend more.

[regularp]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

I never like to agree w/ BBases but Ive been saying it for years. Wether anyone wants to agree, he has several things going against him. There are real issues/concerns. He's an Astro! Thats a much bigger problem than people (Yordan collectors or Astros fans) want to admit. The hobby hates Houston. He's a DH. Name someone "other than Ortiz" that's DH hobby great. He's old (in hobby terms). He's in EVERY single product of 2020. The odds of him reaching 2018/2019 guys pricing is heavily against him. He's a great hitter no doubt. The hatred for the Astros is truly real. The proof is in the pricing. If he was so undervalued, don't you think it would've turned around by now? MVP run, WS run, WS homer, "he's so cheap", etc.

I buy the Astros thing but not the DH part. Soto and Vlad are more popular and both are ass in the field. Defense isn't that big a deal.

[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

I'm convinced "recent sales" is a factor. So many people look to recent sales to determine how much they should spend for a card. While the supply shrinks, there's so many people out there that think, "This card sold for $XXX dollars, so I'm not going to pay more for this one."

Even with the shrinking supply, people have to be willing to spend more.

This is a good point. I’m sure people look at recent sales and then shy away from buying a card because they sense others are no longer interested. And then that snowballs into a situation where a raw Yordan Topps gold (PR 2020) is selling for less than half what a raw Soto US300 (PR 100,000+) was going for at its peak.


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[eye4talent]

So, why do people still refer to Yordan as a DH? Are these people who don’t watch games?

A DH is someone who doesn’t play in the field, unless you were in an NL park pre-2022 and you threw a glove on the dude’s hand because you needed to keep is bat in the lineup.


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[atk825]

Originally Posted by regularp

I buy the Astros thing but not the DH part. Soto and Vlad are more popular and both are ass in the field. Defense isn't that big a deal.

Yordan was also 4th on the Astros in DRS this year and played all but three games in the field during the playoffs this year.

[Nester99]

Originally Posted by regularp

I buy the Astros thing but not the DH part. Soto and Vlad are more popular and both are ass in the field. Defense isn't that big a deal.

Vlad won a gold glove this year for 1st base.

Soto was horrible in the field during the playoff games I watched !

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

$19,200 - so $1,600 per 1/1. Whoever won that lot made a killing. It was almost like the timing was too good. Probably would've gone higher if people had another day to bid.

Also, the people that bid on Yordan stuff aren't necessarily the people that have gotten the qualification on Goldin. I didn't realize that lot existed until two hours before the auction closed...and you get capped at 10K that way. But I agree that pieced out, that's 30K of cards, and that was a bad way to sell them.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by Nester99

Vlad won a gold glove this year for 1st base.

Soto was horrible in the field during the playoff games I watched !

Fangraphs had Soto as one of the most destructive defensive players in the whole league, in the range of guys like Schwarber, Castellanos, and Alonso. But they also had Vlad Jr only a few defensive runs better.

[regularp]

Originally Posted by Nester99

Vlad won a gold glove this year for 1st base.

Soto was horrible in the field during the playoff games I watched !

A GG at first doesn't mean a whole lot. He got moved from third to first too because he's bad in the field.

In general, we're not talking about five tool players in Soto and Vlad Jr. but their prices still dwarf Yordan's.

PSA 10s of their BCAs are 4-6x higher than Yordan.

Age shouldn't be that big a deal either. Yordan's 25, Soto's 24 and Vlad's 23.

[brios8]

Originally Posted by regularp

A GG at first doesn't mean a whole lot. He got moved from third to first too because he's bad in the field.

In general, we're not talking about five tool players in Soto and Vlad Jr. but their prices still dwarf Yordan's.

PSA 10s of their BCAs are 4-6x higher than Yordan.

Age shouldn't be that big a deal either. Yordan's 25, Soto's 24 and Vlad's 23.

I would guess it all has to do with playing for the Astros plus surgery on both knees

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by Redbandit

I get that...but golds for $20 is crazy to me

Yordan has hundreds of thousands more rookies than guys like Soto or Acuna. Tens of thousands more parallels. Thosuands more rookie autos, probably over 10,000 more than either. While Golds are still only 2000 from year to year, all the Yordan money is spread out over a much bigger portion of cards. That supply situation is never changing and is always going to keep his prices at "wow how is he so cheap" if the bar you are comparing him to is guys with a quarter of the rookies in existence or even guys from 2019

Originally Posted by Bambino22

As collectors start eating up more of his cards with little to no intention to resell. Shouldn't prices go up, everything else (all other variables) staying constant?

I never understand this with cards. I must be wrong but I don't know why. Only thing I can think of is heavy majority >90% of cards are being bought and then resold in next couple years. So the collectors who eat up cards forever hurting supply are very small and insignificant.

Absolutely hilarious that this guy thinks there is little turnover in Yordan and people who own his cards just don't ever plan to sell. Utterly clueless about how markets work.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

So, why do people still refer to Yordan as a DH? Are these people who don’t watch games?

Apparently you don't because he played the vast majority of his games at DH this season. No one is going to call him a left fielder when he DHs 75% of the time

[Bambino22]

Originally Posted by brios8

I would guess it all has to do with playing for the Astros plus surgery on both knees

The injury concern is my guess on the #1 reason people were hesitant. But then just a combo with the DH concern and Astros concern. All 3 of these are less and less concerning to the market now compared to last year.

[brios8]

Originally Posted by Bambino22

The injury concern is my guess on the #1 reason people were hesitant. But then just a combo with the DH concern and Astros concern. All 3 of these are less and less concerning to the market now compared to last year.

I agree.
I actually just started collecting him around mid season.
Knees look fine to me, I can see him hitting well for years to come.

The Astros thing should be less important every year (plus he wasnt really part of the cheating scandal)

Yordan is def one of the best offeason buys.. Yordan-Ohtani-Vlad-Witt then Soto-Acuna-Devers-Franco-Jrod
and Judge if he resigns with the Yankees

Great time to buy

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by brios8

I agree.
I actually just started collecting him around mid season.
Knees look fine to me, I can see him hitting well for years to come.

The Astros thing should be less important every year (plus he wasnt really part of the cheating scandal)

Yordan is def one of the best offeason buys.. Yordan-Ohtani-Vlad-Witt then Soto-Acuna-Devers-Franco-Jrod
and Judge if he resigns with the Yankees

Great time to buy

Yeh...the last time you gave advice...people lost their shirt w/ '22 TC

[Bambino22]

My favorite SupermanBrandon post in the Yordan thread. Obviously I'd disagree, but the quick simplistic "Nope!" response still makes me laugh. Thanks for this.

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by Bambino22

My favorite SupermanBrandon post in the Yordan thread. Obviously I'd disagree, but the quick simplistic "Nope!" response still makes me laugh. Thanks for this.

You're welcome

[brios8]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

Yeh...the last time you gave advice...people lost their shirt w/ '22 TC

Having a bad day??

You are Incorrect…
If you bought when I stated it and sold right away as intended you did ok.

However you must be struggling as this has nothing to do with 2022 topps chrome lol.
Quite amazing you try to take a blow at me when I havent said anything about you and yet you still provide false info.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

I never like to agree w/ BBases but Ive been saying it for years. Wether anyone wants to agree, he has several things going against him. There are real issues/concerns. He's an Astro! Thats a much bigger problem than people (Yordan collectors or Astros fans) want to admit. The hobby hates Houston.

Yet it's a much smaller problem than you make it out to be. Are they the Yankees, Mets, Cubs...etc? No. Are they the Marlins, Rays, A's? No. This is fairly easy to quantify with a little bit of research, BTW.

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

He's a DH. Name someone "other than Ortiz" that's DH hobby great.

Barely matters. Ortiz is the only DH ever who has been hobby good because he's the only DH who has ever been hobby good. Yordan is an elite hitter (#2 in my secret sauce for 2023). If he maintains that level through his peak, his prices are heading nowhere but up.

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

He's old (in hobby terms).

Again, this is easily quantifiable. When I say Yordan is cheap, I mean he's cheap once I adjust for age and team.

One thing to keep in mind, Acuna is 25 next year. Vlad, Soto, and Tatis are 24. Their age bonus is going to continue to wear off.

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

He's in EVERY single product of 2020.The odds of him reaching 2018/2019 guys pricing is heavily against him.

This is true. The Yordan money definitely gets spread thin.

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

\The odds of him reaching 2018/2019 guys pricing is heavily against him.

It depends on how you define this one.

Will he ever reach their peak prices? Hell to the no! Neither will they though. As noted earlier, even they are getting long in the tooth (hobby wise) and the market has beaten everybody down.

Will he ever pass one or more them? That is very possible, as early as next season. He cut the gap quite a bit this year. The big guns were 7x to 14x last November, this November they will be 2x to 4x. His hobby projection is better than all of them, plus Tatis is pretty much guaranteed to keep sinking through at least May.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by regularp

I buy the Astros thing but not the DH part. Soto and Vlad are more popular and both are ass in the field. Defense isn't that big a deal.

I agree with your overall point (defense barely matters), but Vlad did win a Gold Glove this year. As much as defense does matter, IMO it's much better to be a Gold Glove 1b than an above average SS that doesn't win a GG.

[rwperu34]

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

I'm convinced "recent sales" is a factor. So many people look to recent sales to determine how much they should spend for a card. While the supply shrinks, there's so many people out there that think, "This card sold for $XXX dollars, so I'm not going to pay more for this one."

Even with the shrinking supply, people have to be willing to spend more.

This is absolutely true. How much a card sells for is influenced heavily by how much the last one sold for...both on the high end and the low end.

Topps Gold for $20-$25 would be a little bit low based on his BCA price. I've got a pretty wide range and that is south of the lower bound. The question is, which price is telling the truth, the BCA or the Gold?

I had bids on a few Yordan Gold /2020 in my crazy 719 snipe week...I think about $20-$22 a copy. I was going to list them for $40, figuring they'd get there by Opening Day.

[Archangel1775]

Yordan looked fine in the OF. He apparently made a nice warning track catch that I missed. He did catch Bryce Harper's pop up in the 9th for the 2nd out. Didn't he throw someone out?