Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.

[BeastMode27]

All pumping of your own cards aside, what would you rather have right now?

Mystery Auto PSA 10 with pretty good auto.
Update Black US1 more than likely a psa 9, would be bgs 9.

I just find it hard to believe the a mystery auto can overcome the growth potential of a black. But one is a PSA 10 and the other isn’t.

[Triple B]

Originally Posted by BeastMode27

All pumping of your own cards aside, what would you rather have right now?

Mystery Auto PSA 10 with pretty good auto.
Update Black US1 more than likely a psa 9, would be bgs 9.

I just find it hard to believe the a mystery auto can overcome the growth potential of a black. But one is a PSA 10 and the other isn’t.

I own both. I have a BGS 9.5 Mystery with a 10 auto and a BGS 9.5 Black. My preference is for the Black and would probably sell the Mystery before the Black if forced to.

I'm like you, I see more potential in the Black, but collectors seem to be leaning towards the Mystery auto because of the NNO connection and at the same time, shying away from his Update issues. The other side is that people are blinded by the PSA 10 label so they may overlook the slightly bad autograph.

[eye4talent]

How does an Acuna Topps Update black compare to the competition?

Would a 9 sell for more than a PSA 10 of a Sapphire or SSP vertical photo variation? I don’t know the answer to that, since I haven’t tracked Acuna black sales for a while (nor have there been any recently).

And I don’t know if there’s a perfect comp for the mystery, but it’s selling raw for more than the Vlad sapphire or SSP photo variation. Of course, those don’t correlate perfectly to cards from 2018, since sapphire seemed to be more plentiful in ‘19 and the SSP has its condition issue. I would say the mystery is to 2019 cards what the Acuna sapphire is 2018 cards. So maybe an Acuna black 9 vs. a sapphire 10 could be the best predictor...? But maybe it’s not that simple.

So I guess the best info we have is from recent sales. The mystery PSA 10 has dropped considerably as the season’s delay has prolonged, but at its peak it sold for more than any raw blacks I know of (which are pretty much the equivalent of a 9).

The pattern could change as a Vlad craze erupts, but I would say the 10 grade gives the mystery the edge.


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[BeastMode27]

Own both as well and quite a bit of other Vlad. Just deciding which of those two I want to get rid of. Concern with the mystery is that it’s quick price jump was manipulation. So it was either a fake jump, or it was like the Acuna sapphire did before. Not as clean as a sapphire Acuna as the mystery typically has an auto with at least a small issue. Can’t decide whether to believe in the mystery as really being the go to. The black you know what you are getting.

[chezball]

How fat is he now with the lock down in place?

[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by BeastMode27

Own both as well and quite a bit of other Vlad. Just deciding which of those two I want to get rid of. Concern with the mystery is that it’s quick price jump was manipulation. So it was either a fake jump, or it was like the Acuna sapphire did before. Not as clean as a sapphire Acuna as the mystery typically has an auto with at least a small issue. Can’t decide whether to believe in the mystery as really being the go to. The black you know what you are getting.

I say you keep both and discount your Bowman Sterling red a little.


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[eye4talent]

In case some of you didn’t see my Topps Clear that I posted in the April pickup thread earlier. This was quite the letdown...

First, the good angle:




And here’s the bad angle:




I asked the seller about the condition, and yet he said nothing about the horrific scarping. And of course the photo in the listing showed the good angle.


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[BeastMode27]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

I say you keep both and discount your Bowman Sterling red a little.


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Haha that one will go to. As well as a couple sapphire PSA 10’s. Looking to cut it down to 5 nice Vlad’s.

[zac949]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

In case some of you didn’t see my Topps Clear that I posted in the April pickup thread earlier. This was quite the letdown...

First, the good angle:

And here’s the bad angle:




I asked the seller about the condition, and yet he said nothing about the horrific scarping. And of course the photo in the listing showed the good angle.


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Dang, I saw this listing and was jealous when I saw it ended early because the seller accepted a best offer. This is very deceitful for the seller not disclosing the surface damage. I know it's common for acetate cards to have surface issues but that's worse than I'd ever imagine one having. I assume you'll be returning that to the seller?

[zac949]

Originally Posted by BeastMode27

Haha that one will go to. As well as a couple sapphire PSA 10’s. Looking to cut it down to 5 nice Vlad’s.

If the price is right, I may be a buyer on one of your sapphires.

[zac949]

Originally Posted by BeastMode27

All pumping of your own cards aside, what would you rather have right now?

Mystery Auto PSA 10 with pretty good auto.
Update Black US1 more than likely a psa 9, would be bgs 9.

I just find it hard to believe the a mystery auto can overcome the growth potential of a black. But one is a PSA 10 and the other isn’t.

Originally Posted by Triple B

I own both. I have a BGS 9.5 Mystery with a 10 auto and a BGS 9.5 Black. My preference is for the Black and would probably sell the Mystery before the Black if forced to.

I'm like you, I see more potential in the Black, but collectors seem to be leaning towards the Mystery auto because of the NNO connection and at the same time, shying away from his Update issues. The other side is that people are blinded by the PSA 10 label so they may overlook the slightly bad autograph.

Originally Posted by eye4talent

How does an Acuna Topps Update black compare to the competition?

Would a 9 sell for more than a PSA 10 of a Sapphire or SSP vertical photo variation? I don’t know the answer to that, since I haven’t tracked Acuna black sales for a while (nor have there been any recently).

And I don’t know if there’s a perfect comp for the mystery, but it’s selling raw for more than the Vlad sapphire or SSP photo variation. Of course, those don’t correlate perfectly to cards from 2018, since sapphire seemed to be more plentiful in ‘19 and the SSP has its condition issue. I would say the mystery is to 2019 cards what the Acuna sapphire is 2018 cards. So maybe an Acuna black 9 vs. a sapphire 10 could be the best predictor...? But maybe it’s not that simple.

So I guess the best info we have is from recent sales. The mystery PSA 10 has dropped considerably as the season’s delay has prolonged, but at its peak it sold for more than any raw blacks I know of (which are pretty much the equivalent of a 9).

The pattern could change as a Vlad craze erupts, but I would say the 10 grade gives the mystery the edge.


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Originally Posted by BeastMode27

Own both as well and quite a bit of other Vlad. Just deciding which of those two I want to get rid of. Concern with the mystery is that it’s quick price jump was manipulation. So it was either a fake jump, or it was like the Acuna sapphire did before. Not as clean as a sapphire Acuna as the mystery typically has an auto with at least a small issue. Can’t decide whether to believe in the mystery as really being the go to. The black you know what you are getting.

I've been contemplating the same on these exact two cards as of lately and have similar thoughts as you guys. It's extremely hard for the Black's to Gem and I'm very OCD on the cards I put in my PC so I've been slow to pull the trigger on a black raw (gem mints are out of my price range). I really like the mystery redemption auto as it has his flagship sp photo on the front but what I really don't like about it is the back. It looks very gimmicky to me and that's what's slowing me down on pulling the trigger. I wish it was a standard looking card with stats on the back. I did end up pulling the trigger on a black and I have a PSA 10 sapphire as well. I've been accumulating a ton of NNOs as I really like the photo on these vs the update US1. I'm hoping these blow up like the Acuna bat down did. I'm not sure that I'll ever add the mystery redemption auto in my PC. I guess the price would have to be in the $500 range for a PSA 10 for me to give in.

[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by zac949

I really like the mystery redemption auto as it has his flagship sp photo on the front but what I really don't like about it is the back. It looks very gimmicky to me and that's what's slowing me down on pulling the trigger. I wish it was a standard looking card with stats on the back.

I hear you on this. As someone who owns a few mystery autos, I have contemplated but overcome this issue.

I would point to the hobby’s earliest cards, such as Allen & Ginter, T209, etc. Baseball cards gained traction as a gimmick, mainly to sell tobacco. All those old cards have tobacco advertisements on the back and have nothing to do with the player on the front. The 1916 Sporting News cards, which include Babe Ruth and Shoeless Joe, either have advertisements for Sporting News or are blank on the back. That doesn’t prevent them from being treasures of the hobby.

Plus, the backs of many autographed and other memorabilia cards these days merely congratulate you for obtaining an autographed or memorabilia card.

So, while it would be nice to have stats on the back, the mystery auto does have some good company within the hobby.


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[SleepyWill]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

I hear you on this. As someone who owns a few mystery autos, I have contemplated but overcome this issue.

I would point to the hobby’s earliest cards, such as Allen & Ginter, T209, etc. Baseball cards gained traction as a gimmick, mainly to sell tobacco. All those old cards have tobacco advertisements on the back and have nothing to do with the player on the front. The 1916 Sporting News cards, which include Babe Ruth and Shoeless Joe, either have advertisements for Sporting News or are blank on the back. That doesn’t prevent them from being treasures of the hobby.

Plus, the backs of many autographed and other memorabilia cards these days merely congratulate you for obtaining an autographed or memorabilia card.

So, while it would be nice to have stats on the back, the mystery auto does have some good company within the hobby.


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I've been slowly stocking up on S1 Jumbo boxes ($60 per my LCS) and going to do a massive rip once my order comes in. Currently awaiting about 3 cases worth and hope that I can land a couple

[doubleAinHD]

How much do you think the TC Superfractor 9.5 will go for?

https://www.ebay.com/itm/16416825452...p2471758.m4704

[zac949]

Originally Posted by doubleAinHD

How much do you think the TC Superfractor 9.5 will go for?

https://www.ebay.com/itm/16416825452...p2471758.m4704

It was listed for $30K OBO for a while so definitely less than that. I'd guess $12K but probably way off. Machado's sold for that when he got hot a few years back.

[Wrigs37]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

In case some of you didn’t see my Topps Clear that I posted in the April pickup thread earlier. This was quite the letdown...




I asked the seller about the condition, and yet he said nothing about the horrific scarping. And of course the photo in the listing showed the good angle.


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I’m very sorry to hear this!! Item not as described...

[LC2nine10]

Originally Posted by chezball

How fat is he now with the lock down in place?

Best shape of his life

[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by Wrigs37

I’m very sorry to hear this!! Item not as described...

So now do you agree that your sparkle BGS 10 is the better card? (Ha!)


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[Wrigs37]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

So now do you agree that your sparkle BGS 10 is the better card? (Ha!)


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Yes... But I’d still rather have a clear without the skid mark if that was an option.

[eye4talent]

Anyone on here just win the Topps Chrome auto superfractor???


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[Shadowsonic2004]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

Anyone on here just win the Topps Chrome auto superfractor???

No but I did win the Update Camo BGS 9.5 that ended tonight.

[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by Shadowsonic2004

No but I did win the Update Camo BGS 9.5 that ended tonight.

Congrats!

I was watching that closely but chickened out at the end. (My botched purchase of a Clear last week—the surface was scraped all to hell and I had to return it—killed my rainbow dream anyway.) I know Camo isn’t for everyone, but I think you got a pretty decent deal on that.


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[Shadowsonic2004]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

Congrats!

I was watching that closely but chickened out at the end. (My botched purchase of a Clear last week—the surface was scraped all to hell and I had to return it—killed my rainbow dream anyway.) I know Camo isn’t for everyone, but I think you got a pretty decent deal on that.

Another clear will show up but at no where near that price. Was it a buy it now/auction or did you make an offer and he accepted. It would have been returned either way but seems like he left a lot on the table with it. Figured the camo would jump at the last moments. It was close to my max. I have bad luck with Guerrero cards, so I bid accordingly to that.

[eye4talent]

Originally Posted by Shadowsonic2004

Another clear will show up but at no where near that price. Was it a buy it now/auction or did you make an offer and he accepted. It would have been returned either way but seems like he left a lot on the table with it. Figured the camo would jump at the last moments. It was close to my max. I have bad luck with Guerrero cards, so I bid accordingly to that.

Well, I’m glad you hit some good luck with Vlad. That card has some serious potential. A Soto 9.5 also sold tonight, for $6,000. So if Vlad hits like we expect he will, you may have just paid for a future bathroom remodel.

I made an offer on the Clear and it was accepted pretty quickly without a counter. The seller appeared to be in disbelief that he didn’t see the damage. But, for various reasons, I’ll just say that my sense is that he knew it was good money for that particular card. I have the blue, pink, indy and vintage. Maybe I’ll go after a black and call it a day.


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[zac949]

Originally Posted by zac949

It was listed for $30K OBO for a while so definitely less than that. I'd guess $12K but probably way off. Machado's sold for that when he got hot a few years back.

Originally Posted by eye4talent

Anyone on here just win the Topps Chrome auto superfractor???


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Well, I was able to guess the ending price but unfortunately I didn't have the money to pony up for it. I would've loved to pick it up at that price. I think we'll all be looking back at this some day wishing we freed up funds for this one.

I'm pissed I missed out on the BGS 10 Sapphire that ended at $561. I lost internet connection and wasn't able to bid. Somebody got a steal on that card.