Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend

[mfw13]

At the macroeconomic level, I think Trump's schizophrenic tariff policies are creating a lot of economic uncertainty, which is in turn making people more cautious when it comes to spending. Consumer confidence numbers are very low right now, and that's despite bitcoin and the stock market being with 5% of their all-time highs.

Add in the fact that there just aren't many new products to get excited about, across all sports, and we're kind of in the doldrums. Wax is still ridiculously overpriced, product lines are getting stale, and Fanatics' overall ineptitude is starting to catch up with it.

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by tconte

With vintage, there are lots of fun options and different ways to collect.
Bland to some is colorful and exciting to others. Great way to learn the
history of the game too!

What's mind bogling and bland to some is the mountains of new issues
and parrallels of colors or variations. Not sure what a zebra or blue wave
even is anymore. Some might find it liberating to set themselves free from
the mountains of SP's, SSP's, SSSSSSSSP's, variations, and colors. The
cost is a headscratcher too. Also, I heard in a youtube video that Soto had over
2000 different 2024 issues while Cal Ripken had ten from 1991 or something
to that effect. Sounds like a money grab. But if today's cards and chase is your
thing then go for it! Having fun is key! Keep a budget.

I would rather save the cash and buy a 1955 Topps Jackie or a 1968 Topps Hank Aaron
or Mantle. They are not too pricey for most participating in the hobby today.

Anyhow, not to go off topic, I will just say I agree with PuddleMonkey's
last post. TCG is charging fast. My opinions of the ultra modern sportscard market is
not a favorable one.

For sure.

but when youve been collecting long enough all those vintage topps cards are already owned or you just dont want them.

"I would rather save the cash and buy a 1955 Topps Jackie or a 1968 Topps Hank Aaron or Mantle. "

Those cards are available to purchase 24 hours a day on eBay, just a matter of paying for them.

i have been looking for ~3 years now for a 2011 Topps Black Pujols. Still have not seen one for sale, stupidly high priced or otherwise.

So while there are a lot of folks (not talking about you here) that love to praise vintage and urinate on modern, they dont understand how difficult some of the modern stuff can be to locate as time goes by. The same cannot be said for any vintage Topps mainstream card.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by mfw13

At the macroeconomic level, I think Trump's schizophrenic tariff policies are creating a lot of economic uncertainty, which is in turn making people more cautious when it comes to spending. Consumer confidence numbers are very low right now, and that's despite bitcoin and the stock market being with 5% of their all-time highs.

Add in the fact that there just aren't many new products to get excited about, across all sports, and we're kind of in the doldrums. Wax is still ridiculously overpriced, product lines are getting stale, and Fanatics' overall ineptitude is starting to catch up with it.

The rich continue to get richer and the poor continue to get poorer - the distance between the socioeconomic classes continues to widen.

It’s a good thing we are not competing against mark zuckerberg and Jeff bezos to buy our favorite sports cards.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

For sure.

but when youve been collecting long enough all those vintage topps cards are already owned or you just dont want them.

"I would rather save the cash and buy a 1955 Topps Jackie or a 1968 Topps Hank Aaron or Mantle. "

Those cards are available to purchase 24 hours a day on eBay, just a matter of paying for them.

i have been looking for ~3 years now for a 2011 Topps Black Pujols. Still have not seen one for sale, stupidly high priced or otherwise.

So while there are a lot of folks (not talking about you here) that love to praise vintage and urinate on modern, they dont understand how difficult some of the modern stuff can be to locate as time goes by. The same cannot be said for any vintage Topps mainstream card.

This is very true....as someone who has been collecting for 40+ years, I already have every single vintage card that I want.

The primary focus of my collecting right now is Heritage Black Chromes of HOFers/future HOFers, and once you get past the most recent year or two, those are very hard to find. And those aren't particularly low-numbered (#/55-76)....it's just that they are very popular and therefore rarely pop up for sale.

I've also been collecting the true Black #/10 parallels of HOFers from Chrome Platinum Anniversary....also very tough to find.

And I've got plenty of cards from 2001-2005 auto sets I'm working on that I've never seen come up for sale.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by mfw13

At the macroeconomic level, I think Trump's schizophrenic tariff policies are creating a lot of economic uncertainty, which is in turn making people more cautious when it comes to spending. Consumer confidence numbers are very low right now, and that's despite bitcoin and the stock market being with 5% of their all-time highs.

Add in the fact that there just aren't many new products to get excited about, across all sports, and we're kind of in the doldrums. Wax is still ridiculously overpriced, product lines are getting stale, and Fanatics' overall ineptitude is starting to catch up with it.

I'll be worried when I can actually get into a restaurant during dinner or lunch hour without waiting for a table, or go to a bar to watch a game without fighting for a stool. I can't take "consumer confidence" seriously when people are still paying $30 for a plate they could make for under $10 at home. I tried to take my mom out for lunch on a Sunday at 2pm two weeks ago and we had to make multiple stops before settling on a 20 minute wait. I assumed we'd just walk in anywhere at that time. Spending is alive and well.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by mfw13

At the macroeconomic level, I think Trump's schizophrenic tariff policies are creating a lot of economic uncertainty, which is in turn making people more cautious when it comes to spending. Consumer confidence numbers are very low right now, and that's despite bitcoin and the stock market being with 5% of their all-time highs.

Add in the fact that there just aren't many new products to get excited about, across all sports, and we're kind of in the doldrums. Wax is still ridiculously overpriced, product lines are getting stale, and Fanatics' overall ineptitude is starting to catch up with it.

Here you go again. Imagine touting consumer confidence numbers without addressing how politicized the responses consumer surveys have become.

Politics aside, consumer confidence surveys are a joke now. The wealth and consumer spending divide is so great that the top 10% of households by income is now responsible for at least 50% of US consumer spending. I imagine the net worth spend numbers are even greater. Media is too caught up in what low income households are doing, clouding their judgement on future trajectory of GDP and markets.

[nowiamsad]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

For sure.

but when youve been collecting long enough all those vintage topps cards are already owned or you just dont want them.

"I would rather save the cash and buy a 1955 Topps Jackie or a 1968 Topps Hank Aaron or Mantle. "

Those cards are available to purchase 24 hours a day on eBay, just a matter of paying for them.

i have been looking for ~3 years now for a 2011 Topps Black Pujols. Still have not seen one for sale, stupidly high priced or otherwise.

So while there are a lot of folks (not talking about you here) that love to praise vintage and urinate on modern, they dont understand how difficult some of the modern stuff can be to locate as time goes by. The same cannot be said for any vintage Topps mainstream card.

This is such a great, insightful and substantive comment. Really rare around here

[Onepocketj]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

I'll be worried when I can actually get into a restaurant during dinner or lunch hour without waiting for a table, or go to a bar to watch a game without fighting for a stool. I can't take "consumer confidence" seriously when people are still paying $30 for a plate they could make for under $10 at home. I tried to take my mom out for lunch on a Sunday at 2pm two weeks ago and we had to make multiple stops before settling on a 20 minute wait. I assumed we'd just walk in anywhere at that time. Spending is alive and well.

Was it two weeks ago or three weeks ago, aka Mother's Day, one of the busiest days of the year for restaurants?

[tconte]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

For sure.

but when youve been collecting long enough all those vintage topps cards are already owned or you just dont want them.

"I would rather save the cash and buy a 1955 Topps Jackie or a 1968 Topps Hank Aaron or Mantle. "

Those cards are available to purchase 24 hours a day on eBay, just a matter of paying for them.

i have been looking for ~3 years now for a 2011 Topps Black Pujols. Still have not seen one for sale, stupidly high priced or otherwise.

So while there are a lot of folks (not talking about you here) that love to praise vintage and urinate on modern, they dont understand how difficult some of the modern stuff can be to locate as time goes by. The same cannot be said for any vintage Topps mainstream card.

There are plenty of affordable vintage cards that would not be considered mainstream. These will be in comparison to something like the black.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by tconte

There are plenty of affordable vintage cards that would not be considered mainstream. These will be in comparison to something like the black.

are you talking about odd-ball/food/beverage stuff?
i dont count those as they are regional releases and tend to not be sold via packs/factory sets

[cholodolo]

Attended the "California Card Festival" last weekend in Lake Forest, CA. Very nice venue -- large youth basketball and multi-sport facility.

Billed as "Sports Cards & TCG" -- which I feel is becoming a bit of a trojan horse to get collectors in the door-- as 80% of the tables were Pokemon.

From what I observed, the gap between Pokemon (and other TCG) and Sports Cards is massive. The energy and traffic at Pokemon table was dramatically different. Pokemon was upbeat, plenty of giveaways/raffles, colorful setups, lots of cards, some females, and overall a positive vibe.

Sports Card dealers were dour, uninterested, overpriced, with little to no inventory. Maybe 10 total Sports tables -- 3-4 had dollar or other bins to comb through. Good luck getting a look at any of those boxes, as we all know the type -- out of shape, slovenly appearance, zero social skills or awareness, parking themselves in front of a vendor's display case and giving nobody personal space to maneuver or catch a glimpse of a card.

Many had signs "buying 80-90%" which of course means they are demanding a discount on your cards. Truly insane given the inventory in their cases -- saw at least 6 Edgar Martinez or Jim Thome autos. A few Ohtani/Judge inserts, Tyler Soderstrom autos, and Panini Downtown nonsense.

Little to no sealed wax or cards from local teams -- Angels, Dodgers, Ducks, Kings -- on offer. Of course, I have Angels/Ducks cards but these guys want them at a discount -- why would I do that? This isn't Pawn Stars.

Some of these little hustlers and "repackers" should invest in security or at least bring their Dad. Kid next to me was like 14, 5'3 120, flashing thousands. Not smart.

Probably done attending card shows of this variety. Perhaps there's a demographic reason why the West Coast is a net exporter of Sports Cards to the Midwest and East Coast. I say that as I read so many positive experiences here that I just cannot relate to having attended shows in Southern California for the past couple years.

[6celtics33]

What’s jigglypup’s war? Does he/she even steal bases?

[tconte]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

are you talking about odd-ball/food/beverage stuff?
i dont count those as they are regional releases and tend to not be sold via packs/factory sets

I made my original comments to puddle monkey’s comments of the market. They were overall in general, and I still stand by them. I wasn’t comparing one segment towards another segment.

You’re comparing a black parallel to base vintage.
A very expensive card to affordable cards. You mentioned how expensive some of the top-tier guys are, and I said you can get some cheaper. You can get nice Joe DiMaggio cards for nice prices.

My thought with how much of a gamble the ultramodern market is I would stay away from it.

By vintage! It’s a better play and you can learn about the history of the game. Everything done today is basically a money grab.

I think in the end we’re just gonna disagree. Which is OK. It’s OK for everyone to collect what they like. I’m just trying to help so many youngsters from losing all their hard earned money, or mommy and daddy’s.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by tconte

I made my original comments to puddle monkey’s comments of the market. They were overall in general, and I still stand by them. I wasn’t comparing one segment towards another segment.

You’re comparing a black parallel to base vintage.
A very expensive card to affordable cards. You mentioned how expensive some of the top-tier guys are, and I said you can get some cheaper. You can get nice Joe DiMaggio cards for nice prices.

My thought with how much of a gamble the ultramodern market is I would stay away from it.

By vintage! It’s a better play and you can learn about the history of the game. Everything done today is basically a money grab.

I think in the end we’re just gonna disagree. Which is OK. It’s OK for everyone to collect what they like. I’m just trying to help so many youngsters from losing all their hard earned money, or mommy and daddy’s.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

i hear what you are saying. we are just coming from it at different points on our collecting journey.

i mentioned the Topps Blacks because that is what i am currently really interested in. i have pretty much all the vintage cards that i would like to own already, so they are pretty much a non-factor for me personally but i have no interest in urinating on those folks that decide they want to collect them.

which Joe D playing days cards are "nice prices"? i will say that pre-war is a whole other animal for sure.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by cholodolo

Attended the "California Card Festival" last weekend in Lake Forest, CA. Very nice venue -- large youth basketball and multi-sport facility.

Billed as "Sports Cards & TCG" -- which I feel is becoming a bit of a trojan horse to get collectors in the door-- as 80% of the tables were Pokemon.

From what I observed, the gap between Pokemon (and other TCG) and Sports Cards is massive. The energy and traffic at Pokemon table was dramatically different. Pokemon was upbeat, plenty of giveaways/raffles, colorful setups, lots of cards, some females, and overall a positive vibe.

Sounds like this should have been a TCG only show. People go where the money is. And the money in Pokemon right now is unfathomable.

[anusinha]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

I'll be worried when I can actually get into a restaurant during dinner or lunch hour without waiting for a table, or go to a bar to watch a game without fighting for a stool. I can't take "consumer confidence" seriously when people are still paying $30 for a plate they could make for under $10 at home. I tried to take my mom out for lunch on a Sunday at 2pm two weeks ago and we had to make multiple stops before settling on a 20 minute wait. I assumed we'd just walk in anywhere at that time. Spending is alive and well.

Consumer confidence has been surging higher, unless you're watching MSNBC all day:

"The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased by 12.3 points in May to 98.0 (1985=100), up from 85.7 in April. The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose 4.8 points to 135.9. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—surged 17.4 points to 72.8, but remained below the threshold of 80, which typically signals a recession ahead. The cutoff date for preliminary results was May 19, 2025. About half of the responses were collected after the May 12 announcement of a pause on some tariffs on imports from China."

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by Onepocketj

Was it two weeks ago or three weeks ago, aka Mother's Day, one of the busiest days of the year for restaurants?

You think I'm dumb enough to post that I waited for a table on a holiday?

No, it was a normal Sunday in between lunch and dinner and restaurants were packed.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

The rich continue to get richer and the poor continue to get poorer - the distance between the socioeconomic classes continues to widen.

That will never change. Communism doesn't work. Everyone does not get an equal share of everything. A post I made a few weeks ago sums up this difference perfectly. But it got shut down because the point that was being made turned into a bunch of political responses. But I will bring it up again to prove this point:

The "rich" bought Tesla when it bottomed out because it was such an incredible opportunity to get into the stock for massive discounts. It did a nose dive for absolutely no reason other human emotions. It was a guaranteed win. Some of the easiest and fastest money I have made this year.

The "poor" complained about how evil Elon Musk was and some went to the streets to waste their time protesting and even keying innocent peoples cars.

That is one example of why people stay poor. Yes, the above example has outliers on both ends. Not everyone with money bought it, and not everyone who keyed a Tesla is poor. But its an example of mindset. These type of examples can be given over and over. The machine is not keeping the poor people poor. Bad decisions (there are exceptions to every rule) are what keep people poor.

"The man" is not holding anyone down.

[cholodolo]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Sounds like this should have been a TCG only show. People go where the money is. And the money in Pokemon right now is unfathomable.

Undoubtedly -- what is driving Pokemon, though? The variety and availability of products? To your point, feel like I would have seen some of these setups (young girls, giveaways) at Sports Card shows a few years ago.

Sports Cards are a dead hold for a lot of people -- throwing good money after bad on the fringes and hoping for miracles at this point.

[premium1981]

Originally Posted by cholodolo

Undoubtedly -- what is driving Pokemon, though? The variety and availability of products?

In My Opinion:

1) The age group that grew up with the original are now grown adults with more disposable income. Same thing seems to happen with pretty much all popular stuff from ones childhood.

2) Chain reaction of popularity. Once something gets hot or cool it brings in all kinds of new people for all kinds of new reasons.

3) It isn't $500-$2000 a box like sports cards.

4) You aren't left feeling sad after opening them unlike when you open a lot of sports cards. I don't care for Pokemon, but my son loves them. I have seen him get equally excited for a $5 Pokemon card as he has a $300 baseball card.

5) Worldwide appeal. I think since it originated in Japan it has broader appeal. Although sports cards have really made progress in recent years.

6) I could be completely wrong about 1-5. I know baseball cards, not Pokemon cards.

[cholodolo]

Originally Posted by premium1981

In My Opinion:

1) The age group that grew up with the original are now grown adults with more disposable income. Same thing seems to happen with pretty much all popular stuff from ones childhood.

2) Chain reaction of popularity. Once something gets hot or cool it brings in all kinds of new people for all kinds of new reasons.

3) It isn't $500-$2000 a box like sports cards.

4) You aren't left feeling sad after opening them unlike when you open a lot of sports cards. I don't care for Pokemon, but my son loves them. I have seen him get equally excited for a $5 Pokemon card as he has a $300 baseball card.

5) Worldwide appeal. I think since it originated in Japan it has broader appeal. Although sports cards have really made progress in recent years.

6) I could be completely wrong about 1-5. I know baseball cards, not Pokemon cards.

Feel like these are all correct -- the cost point is perhaps most prescient.

Might also be a more welcoming space on an interpersonal level -- my fellow sports card collectors are not winning any personality contests.

And the perception of scams/grifts is more prevalent in Sports Cards -- although I consume Rattle Pokemon's content without the slightest idea about the actual product.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by premium1981

That will never change. Communism doesn't work. Everyone does not get an equal share of everything. A post I made a few weeks ago sums up this difference perfectly. But it got shut down because the point that was being made turned into a bunch of political responses. But I will bring it up again to prove this point:

The "rich" bought Tesla when it bottomed out because it was such an incredible opportunity to get into the stock for massive discounts. It did a nose dive for absolutely no reason other human emotions. It was a guaranteed win. Some of the easiest and fastest money I have made this year.

The "poor" complained about how evil Elon Musk was and some went to the streets to waste their time protesting and even keying innocent peoples cars.

That is one example of why people stay poor. Yes, the above example has outliers on both ends. Not everyone with money bought it, and not everyone who keyed a Tesla is poor. But its an example of mindset. These type of examples can be given over and over. The machine is not keeping the poor people poor. Bad decisions (there are exceptions to every rule) are what keep people poor.

"The man" is not holding anyone down.

This 100%. If a poor person would Door Dash just 3 hours a night for one month they could make $1500 and pop it into an investment account. Do it for 6 months and they have 9K. Do it for a year and they have 18k. And even if they knew nothing about the stock market they could park it into an index fund at an average yearly return of 10% and double that every 10 years. 40 years from now they have 75k from "that one year they DoorDashed for 3 hours a night".

That doesn't even count the potential for retirement contributions or making a longer-term commitment to a side hustle. Do it for 5 years and you have 375k over 40 years.

Sans a felony, DUI, disability, etc., the average "poor" person is capable of far more than they realize.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by cholodolo

Undoubtedly -- what is driving Pokemon, though? The variety and availability of products? To your point, feel like I would have seen some of these setups (young girls, giveaways) at Sports Card shows a few years ago.

Sports Cards are a dead hold for a lot of people -- throwing good money after bad on the fringes and hoping for miracles at this point.

The Pokemon Company just gets it in a way that Fanatics, Panini, and all the other companies that have come and gone the last 30 years don’t. The sports card companies create chase out of scarcity, most of which is artificial. They make money by creating tiers of products designed around those chases. The tiers are progressively more expensive, and “expensive” becomes more outrageous over time.

Pokémon is straightforward. The cards are readily available. The structure of all releases is pretty much the same, and they’ll introduce new concepts every year or so. The best cards in any given set are cards you can reasonably pull, and at worst, readily buy or trade for. They do a lot of promos through different wax formats or events, but few are what a sports collector would consider to be rare.

The foundation has been built over the last 30 years, and TPC continues to attract new generations. But I suspect prices are exploding right now thanks to crypto.

[Rbradleigh]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

This 100%. If a poor person would Door Dash just 3 hours a night for one month they could make $1500 and pop it into an investment account. Do it for 6 months and they have 9K. Do it for a year and they have 18k. And even if they knew nothing about the stock market they could park it into an index fund at an average yearly return of 10% and double that every 10 years. 40 years from now they have 75k from "that one year they DoorDashed for 3 hours a night".

That doesn't even count the potential for retirement contributions or making a longer-term commitment to a side hustle. Do it for 5 years and you have 375k over 40 years.

Sans a felony, DUI, disability, etc., the average "poor" person is capable of far more than they realize.

I’m going to punch a few holes into this example:
Do the “poor” have reliable transportation to deliver door dash?
Do the poor have enough reserves to allow $1500 a month to go into investment portfolios?
Do the poor have affordable childcare if needed to allow driving those additional 3 hrs a night?

I’ll go with 1. Education and 2. Birth control

[marl1220]

Originally Posted by premium1981

That will never change. Communism doesn't work. Everyone does not get an equal share of everything. A post I made a few weeks ago sums up this difference perfectly. But it got shut down because the point that was being made turned into a bunch of political responses. But I will bring it up again to prove this point:

The "rich" bought Tesla when it bottomed out because it was such an incredible opportunity to get into the stock for massive discounts. It did a nose dive for absolutely no reason other human emotions. It was a guaranteed win. Some of the easiest and fastest money I have made this year.

The "poor" complained about how evil Elon Musk was and some went to the streets to waste their time protesting and even keying innocent peoples cars.

That is one example of why people stay poor. Yes, the above example has outliers on both ends. Not everyone with money bought it, and not everyone who keyed a Tesla is poor. But its an example of mindset. These type of examples can be given over and over. The machine is not keeping the poor people poor. Bad decisions (there are exceptions to every rule) are what keep people poor.

"The man" is not holding anyone down.