Observations on the current state of the hobby from a show this weekend

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by PuddleMonkey

Interesting. My offer of $450 was immediately shot down, dealer boi thinking it's a $1,200 card.

He probably overpaid for it.

Pretty common story these days.

Move along.

When he's desperate enough for money, he will budge. Or take the card to his grave. His prerogative.

I understand that set is pretty popular, and /25 makes it one of the tougher hits. I've purchased some of the /15 in the past. But $1200 is way too high unless you are desperate and that is the last card you need to complete your set.

There are 24 others out there, just be patient if you really want it.

Just noticed he has the card on ebay.

That dude does not sell much and his prices are sky high.

$150,000 for a 2021 topps now othani auto/5 with game used baseball???

$35,000 for a pristine trout sterling 2009???? (these sell for about $5500).

He's using ebay as a museum.

[ThoseBackPages]

cant take a loss, bro

[OneSickDegen]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Thanks bro!

Please pay particular attention to wrist and footwear.

Last year Peli bois were sporting Rolexes and OG Jordans to enhance their pimpwear.

I’ve been spotting more Casios and vans this year. Oh and undersized t-shirts.

Them peli-bois gonna get put on blassst

[PuddleMonkey]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

He probably overpaid for it.

Pretty common story these days.

Move along.

When he's desperate enough for money, he will budge. Or take the card to his grave. His prerogative.

I understand that set is pretty popular, and /25 makes it one of the tougher hits. I've purchased some of the /15 in the past. But $1200 is way too high unless you are desperate and that is the last card you need to complete your set.

There are 24 others out there, just be patient if you really want it.

Just noticed he has the card on ebay.

That dude does not sell much and his prices are sky high.

$150,000 for a 2021 topps now othani auto/5 with game used baseball???

$35,000 for a pristine trout sterling 2009???? (these sell for about $5500).

He's using ebay as a museum.

Appreciate the advice!

[solt0131]

Originally Posted by dmbfanandy

Observations from Philly Show (Saturday)

Foot traffic was decent. New venue this year so there was more space to move around.

Dollar boxes were drawing a lot of attention. Many people crowded around tables selling .50 cents or dollar cards.

Prices for singles seemed high compared to ebay. Seemed like prices were not in line with the current market conditions. I was able to grab some deals on raw cards when packaging multiple cards together and negotiating. But a lot of the graded stuff was priced high and the sellers didn’t want to come off of pricing which was more reflective of last year.

High end didn’t seem to be moving very well. Witnessed some trade attempts but dealers weren’t trading as much as previous years.

Sealed wax (TNT cards had a large setup with pretty much any box available of current and last years products) was not nearly as crowded as previous years. Prices were in line with the big retailers but prices were not cheaper than what you can buy for online.

Overall, it’s clear that the hobby isn’t fizzling out. Based on the amount of people present and buying, there is plenty of interest BUT I believe that dealer prices at this particular show haven’t corrected downward like other avenues of buying.

As far as being set up for the 3 days there, I agree with these observations.

For what I brought, I thought it was an absolutely fantastic show. Tons of interest in the $1 - $20 range of cards, these were my best sellers by far.

It's not cheap to do these types of shows but there are many good ways to keep your expsenses low.

I did find one thing odd though, not one person asked about my 2019 Topps Silver pack gold /50 Mike Trout PSA 10 or my 1993 Scoring Kings PSA 8 Michael Jordan.

[notfast]

Originally Posted by PuddleMonkey

Since you guys are the comp experts maybe you can tell me what something like this should sell for.

$450 seems a bit high and if someone didn’t take that, move on. They’re nuts.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

He probably overpaid for it.

Pretty common story these days.

Move along.

When he's desperate enough for money, he will budge. Or take the card to his grave. His prerogative.

There are a lot of people in similar situations right now.....newbies who bought during the bubble and now are faced with either selling at a significant loss or holding on to the card for the long-term until the next bubble develops.

[hotcalsun]

Originally Posted by mfw13

There are a lot of people in similar situations right now.....newbies who bought during the bubble and now are faced with either selling at a significant loss or holding on to the card for the long-term until the next bubble develops.

Many choose the later or walk away. Sunk-cost fallacy.

[k13]

Originally Posted by mfw13

There are a lot of people in similar situations right now.....newbies who bought during the bubble and now are faced with either selling at a significant loss or holding on to the card for the long-term until the next bubble develops.

Besides hot players there won't be another bubble in most people's lifetime.

[hotcalsun]

Originally Posted by k13

Besides hot players there won't be another bubble in most people's lifetime.

This is categorically false. It just won't be on anyone's expected timeline.

Many of us have already seen more than 1 and I expect to see several more.

[k13]

Originally Posted by hotcalsun

This is categorically false. It just won't be on anyone's expected timeline.

Many of us have already seen more than 1 and I expect to see several more.

There's only been two.
So if it happens again in 30-40 years.
Most people 35-55 will be dead by then.

[StateEx]

Originally Posted by k13

There's only been two.
So if it happens again in 30-40 years.
Most people 35-55 will be dead by then.

Also worth considering: even if there is another bubble, will currently overinflated cards benefit from it? Look at 1990 Topps. Also, there's no way all of today's valuable young players pan out long term.

I'm not saying cards are going to zero, just agreeing that there are no guarantees.

[hotcalsun]

Originally Posted by k13

There's only been two.
So if it happens again in 30-40 years.
Most people 35-55 will be dead by then.

Been more than 2.
Will be less than 30 years.
Most will not be dead by then.

[hotcalsun]

Originally Posted by StateEx

Also worth considering: even if there is another bubble, will currently overinflated cards benefit from it? Look at 1990 Topps. Also, there's no way all of today's valuable young players pan out long term.

I'm not saying cards are going to zero, just agreeing that there are no guarantees.

Some will be different, some will be the same.

Frank Thomas was huge then, he was huge in this bubble. Others, not so much.

In other words, no I don't think you should hold on to all of your 2020 Topps Gavin Lux PSA 10s.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by hotcalsun

This is categorically false. It just won't be on anyone's expected timeline.

Many of us have already seen more than 1 and I expect to see several more.

What’s your definition of bubble and what bubbles have you seen in the last fifty years?

The 2021 pandemic pump was absolutely the only bubble where I saw many cards drop 75-90% in one year - that has never happened before in the history of mankind.

[jjcan]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

What’s your definition of bubble and what bubbles have you seen in the last fifty years?

The 2021 pandemic pump was absolutely the only bubble where I saw many cards drop 75-90% in one year - that has never happened before in the history of mankind.

Hubba Bubba and Big league Chew. Many Many gum bubbles, 1970s and 1980s. Was almost like a bubble gum war I believe

More recently from the 1990s-2000s the Bubbles in the champagne room, Scrub and Bubbles, and Bubbles from Powerpuff girls.

Hot tub bubbles are less frequent because of MRSA and other diseases so yes..that might be also a big drop in those bubbles bursting.

But there are many Bubbles in the history of Mankind.

[hotcalsun]

Originally Posted by jjcan

Hubba Bubba and Big league Chew. Many Many gum bubbles, 1970s and 1980s.

More Recently from the 1990s-2000s the Bubbles in the champagne room, Scrub and Bubbles, and Bubbles from Power puff girls.

Hot tub bubbles are less frequent because of MRSA and other diseases so yes..that might be also a big drop in that.

But There are many Bubbles in the history of Mankind.

This is the way.

[k13]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

What’s your definition of bubble and what bubbles have you seen in the last fifty years?

The 2021 pandemic pump was absolutely the only bubble where I saw many cards drop 75-90% in one year - that has never happened before in the history of mankind.

90's junk basically went to worthless.

But nothing was that expensive back then just a lot volume on garbage.

[solt0131]

Originally Posted by k13

People don't want $1 cards like they used to.
Hard to sell $10 cards for $1.

You can't even get $5 for a Mike Trout Topps Chrome refractor.

This is 100% wrong. $1 cards right now are some of the best selling cards at a show. I should know, I have a boatload of them when I set up.

[jjcan]

Originally Posted by k13

90's junk basically went to worthless.

But nothing was that expensive back then just a lot volume on garbage.

My 1990 Topps commons went from 5 cents to .05 cent after 1994, then it went from .05 cent to .007 cent in 2005, then it went back up to .05 cents. Now its back down to .01 cent.

So the 90% drop happens a lot. Hot garbage....

More bubbles, Bubble Butt, Bubbles the Chimp, Bubble Boy, Bubble Tea,

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by k13

90's junk basically went to worthless.

But nothing was that expensive back then just a lot volume on garbage.

Well, the 90's junk started worthless and didn't get that expensive, so a bubble never really formed.

Boxes were about $15 at release, probably doubled in price due to demand as grading started to trend in 1997, and hasn't been back to $10 for a long time.

Today's pandemic pump bubble was the 90's junk wax price shift on steroids.

[k13]

Originally Posted by solt0131

This is 100% wrong. $1 cards right now are some of the best selling cards at a show. I should know, I have a boatload of them when I set up.

Was at a 4 day show and found moving $1-$5 cards easier in 2014-15.

People want high end cards for low end prices.

[k13]

On Ebay, player better get 5-6 td's in one game or no interest.

[solt0131]

Originally Posted by k13

Was at a 4 day show and found moving $1-$5 cards easier in 2014-15.

People want high end cards for low end prices.

Wrong. People want value, they don't want ripped off.....be fair with pricing and people will buy.

[Raleigh504]

Setting up at a show this weekend in NC. Expanding from 1 table to 2. Bringing much more stuff and hopefully it will lead to more sales/people looking at my stuff.

Been going through a collection I bought to add to the inventory for sale. Looking at comps, it is crazy on how things have dropped off in price. I sold Acuna for $100 and Soto for $120 PSA 10s and now they are both half that.