Wander Franco Rookie Card Debate (2021 Bowman's Best vs. 2022 RC logo cards)

[pewe]

Originally Posted by Bcr

I find this extremely hard to believe. 1st Bowmans and RC's are the chase cards of the hobby. Odds are high people are collecting both not the opposite.

I encourage you to peruse the player threads on this board. Once a player is in MLB, what portion of recent purchases shown off are minor league cards of the player. And look at who is posting them. And who is participating in the thread.

My experience is that while a player is in the minor leagues, the participants in a player thread are largely different than once they get into MLB. In fact, I observe many players get a new player thread populated by the BO members that only follow MLB.

And once they get their MLB focused player thread, the proportion of cards and spend shown off focused on MLB swings hard towards MLB. Particularly as time goes on.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by pewe

Narrow breadth of buyers is not a requirement in the definition of "niche"... only that it is a small focused part of a larger market.



For instance, consider costumes. Costumes are a niche within clothing. A large part of the population will purchase a costume of some type over time. BUT it remains a small niche part of their clothing budget.

There's the problem. You don't know what niche means.

Niche: adjective

denoting products, services, or interests that appeal to a small, specialized section of the population.

It's all about how many people collect them, not how many there are.

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[ObanMontecristo]

I don’t even understand why people are debating the 1st Bowman issue… is it to arguably decide whether BB prices are higher because there’s less demand for BB since it’s a “Bowman” product with no 1st Bowman’s? It’s a flawed premise to begin with. There are purely minor league sets with a following (Bowman Heritage, Topps Pro Debut, and Topps Heritage Minors), so there’s clearly a market for minor league cards that don’t have “1st Bowman” logos on them.

But does that really even matter? No matter where you fall on the BB-RC debate, there are people who might be interested in buying the product because they collect certain vets, they collect chrome cards and/or rare parallels, they look for autos, they simply like the look of the cards, or they collect any cards with the “RC” logo (and no one talks about the 30 or so other cards in the set that do have the RC logo), etc. You could buy because you buy everything, or you could be buying ‘21 BB because you think there are 30 would-be-prospects-but-are-actually-RCs. And of course, people could be interested in BB for more than one or all of those reasons. Either way, you’ll never be able to get any reliable data to say what % of people collect for what reason- it’s all over the place.

[pete2345]

This thread is on life support. Pull the plug pumpers it is over.

[ObanMontecristo]

Originally Posted by pete2345

This thread is on life support. Pull the plug pumpers it is over.

Just go away and stop trolling, so you don’t have to worry about it

[pewe]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

There's the problem. You don't know what niche means.

Niche: adjective

denoting products, services, or interests that appeal to a small, specialized section of the population.

It's all about how many people collect them, not how many there are.

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You are welcome to choose someone who defines it like you want, but that is not the definition of a niche market.

Niche market refers to the revenue size, and not the breadth of the population who might consume it.

For instance, the top dictionary definition when I just searched in Google has no mention of population... in fact, in practice niches can be defined on a bunch of different variables. And allow you to find success via a small, underserved, but profitable product need within a broader market.

-----------------------
niche market
noun [ C ]
US /ˈnɪtʃ ˌmɑːr.kɪt/ UK /ˈniːʃ ˌmɑː.kɪt/

a small area of trade within the economy, often involving specialized products

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by pewe

You are welcome to choose someone who defines it like you want, but that is not the definition of a niche market.



Niche market refers to the revenue size, and not the breadth of the population who might consume it.



For instance, the top dictionary definition when I just searched in Google has no mention of population... in fact, in practice niches can be defined on a bunch of different variables. And allow you to find success via a small, underserved, but profitable product need within a broader market.



-----------------------

niche market

noun [ C ]

US /ˈnɪtʃ ˌmɑːr.kɪt/ UK /ˈniːʃ ˌmɑː.kɪt/



a small area of trade within the economy, often involving specialized products

I literally quoted google dictionary's definition. You are reaching. 1st bowmans are one of the most widely collected card types on the planet. End of story. Play the semantics game all you want.

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[pewe]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

I literally quoted google dictionary's definition. You are reaching. 1st bowmans are one of the most widely collected card types on the planet. End of story. Play the semantics game all you want.

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If they are so widely collected, why are they such a small market???

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by pewe

If they are so widely collected, why are they such a small market???

They aren't. Stop being obtuse. They are only "small" when you compare them to broad swaths of the overall card market. And that can literally be done to any card type. You are just playing games with dividing the market to fit your narrative. It's disingenuous. Compare 1st bowman to any other very specific card type using fair and similar comparisons and you'd see 1st bowmans are a huge market.

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[BBases31]

Originally Posted by pewe

If they are so widely collected, why are they such a small market???

Because most people can't afford them? Lol. BC Autos are the most in-demand card, period. Soto's base BC Auto is a $1500 card. Go ahead and show me the prices of other Soto cards that printed about 2000 copies, see if any of them are worth anywhere near $1500 .

[pewe]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

They aren't. Stop being obtuse. They are only "small" when you compare them to broad swaths of the overall card market. And that can literally be done to any card type. You are just playing games with dividing the market to fit your narrative. It's disingenuous. Compare 1st bowman to any other very specific card type using fair and similar comparisons and you'd see 1st bowmans are a huge market.

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What is a "fair and similar comparison"?

I'm not sure what has you so upset that I originally stated that 1st Bowman has a dedicated collector base. One that I imagine will remain, even if/when we have a washout of all the "investors" that have infiltrated the hobby.

And then I compared that to BB'21 saying that it, too, may have a dedicated collector base. With fewer "investors" and more collectors. That I think is a hallmark of a product with long term relevance (notice I left out the "hot button" use of market niche ).

There is nothing about that statement being derogatory towards 1st Bowman. You might say I implied the opposite.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by BBases31

Because most people can't afford them? Lol. BC Autos are the most in-demand card, period. Soto's base BC Auto is a $1500 card. Go ahead and show me the prices of other Soto cards that printed about 2000 copies, see if any of them are worth anywhere near $1500 .

How many people have spent more than $1500 on Soto RCs? They had an option. Buy a 1st Bowman, or buy Soto RCs.

If the 1st Bowman were a better use of their collecting $$, they should have bought one. And pushed up 1st Bowman prices further towards equilibrium (or larger) "market cap" for Soto 1st Bowman cards.

I guess its possible some people are unwise with their $$. We see it all the time. But I'd argue it is also possible that some people don't value the 1st Bowman (at all, or at that level... could be either), thus choose not to participate in that market. And the subset of the market that remains has established that equilibrium.

The end results of these market decisions is an amount of $$ spent on different card categories.

1st Bowman are a major category. But a small minority in the scheme of where people decide to put their hobby $$.

[Frankp2311]

Definitely his 2022 Series 2 RC.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by pewe

But a small minority in the scheme of where people decide to put their hobby $$.

Again, you keep making this claim but never once provide any evidence it is true.

The facts are, Bowman products (Bowman, Chrome, and Draft) are 3 of Topps' top selling products of the year. The vast majority buying those products are buying for 1st Bowmans.

Every time you claim people aren't spending their hobby $$ on 1st bowmans you need to provide some actual data to overcome the presumption that comes from the sales of bowman products being so large each year.

Then you also need to understand that many people buy both 1st bowmans and other products. There are very few collectors who collect modern cards who don't own 1st bowman cards in their collection. So it's not an all or nothing proposition. It's not that there is a small group of collectors only buying 1st bowmans and a different group of collectors collecting RCs and a different group of collectors collecting a specific player, etc... Specialized collecting like that exists, but THAT is the niche, not the norm. Most collectors buy lots of variety in their collections. And nearly all of them buy 1st bowmans.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Again, you keep making this claim but never once provide any evidence it is true.

The facts are, Bowman products (Bowman, Chrome, and Draft) are 3 of Topps' top selling products of the year. The vast majority buying those products are buying for 1st Bowmans.

Every time you claim people aren't spending their hobby $$ on 1st bowmans you need to provide some actual data to overcome the presumption that comes from the sales of bowman products being so large each year.

Then you also need to understand that many people buy both 1st bowmans and other products. There are very few collectors who collect modern cards who don't own 1st bowman cards in their collection. So it's not an all or nothing proposition. It's not that there is a small group of collectors only buying 1st bowmans and a different group of collectors collecting RCs and a different group of collectors collecting a specific player, etc... Specialized collecting like that exists, but THAT is the niche, not the norm. Most collectors buy lots of variety in their collections. And nearly all of them buy 1st bowmans.

You are welcome to repeat the last analyses done on these. I think you will find that flagship chrome and flagship alone is shocking in how much $$ revenue it generates.

Looking back at 2018, a year where I had some quick numbers at my fingertips, it looks like Topps Chrome alone had similar revenue vs. all Bowman, Bowman Chrome, and Bowman Draft put together. Given print runs have been increasing in lock step, and box prices as well, it would suggest this ratio hasn't changed.

And that is before you start counting all the other flagship releases. And all the other popular MLB releases.

When I saw this analysis done before, it suggested that Topps might generate up to 10% of the revenue from minor league product. Or less.

[pewe]

BTW if someone wants to try and replicate the horse race of Flagship Chrome vs. Bowman, Bowman Chrome, and Bowman Draft… here is 2021 Flagship chrome pack out.

I don’t have the same for Bowman products. But if we did we could confirm that Flagship Chrome outsells Bowman by itself.




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[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by pewe

it suggested that Topps might generate up to 10% of the revenue from minor league product. Or less.

Again, you just aren't understanding. This sentence proves it. You keep wanting to divide the market into major league vs. minor league. That's just an absurd way to do it. It's not reflective of how the hobby works at all.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Since it seems you have sales numbers you aren't sharing with the rest of us, go ahead and post total sales numbers by product. Then see which topps products rank against others. You will see Flagship products #1, Bowman products #2, then other products down the list. Sure, if you lump a bunch of other stuff that is more niche together with major releases like flagship, it will appear Bowman is small. But when you divide it out it's quite clear Bowman is the #2 product line for Topps, behind only the behemoth Flagship line.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Again, you just aren't understanding. This sentence proves it. You keep wanting to divide the market into major league vs. minor league. That's just an absurd way to do it. It's not reflective of how the hobby works at all.

How not? It is certainly how product is split. It is also the behavior of collectors.

As you've even pointed out:
-- Some tend to focus on minor league cards (mostly 1st Bowman, as folks like minor league rookies, although they might also pick up Pro Debut or Heritage Minors or some Panini product for the fun of it)
-- Some focus more on major league cards (probably mostly RC)
-- Some like owning both minor league cards and major league cards

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by pewe

How not? It is certainly how product is split. It is also the behavior of collectors.

That is simply not accurate. Most RC collectors also collect 1st bowmans and vice versa. And only a small percentage of those who collect 1st bowmans also collect true minor league releases like Heritage Minors, Pro Debut, etc... It's simply not accurate to lump 1st bowman collectors as "minor league" collectors. That's not the hobby as it exists. In fact, if you were honest, you'd lump Rookie and 1st Bowman collectors as the same market segment, then veteran collectors, and vintage collectors (again, most collectors don't limit themselves to one single category). And the RC/1st Bowman collectors are the largest segment of the market.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

Since it seems you have sales numbers you aren't sharing with the rest of us, go ahead and post total sales numbers by product. Then see which topps products rank against others. You will see Flagship products #1, Bowman products #2, then other products down the list. Sure, if you lump a bunch of other stuff that is more niche together with major releases like flagship, it will appear Bowman is small. But when you divide it out it's quite clear Bowman is the #2 product line for Topps, behind only the behemoth Flagship line.

Fantastic! Sounds like we are on the same page. Totally agree with #1 and 2. And that MLB gets pumped up by the breadth of other product lines that people like to collect.

And I guess that is also the point: given Bowman is the only source that most go to for their minor league cards, it makes the relative weight of minor league collecting small compared to MLB.

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by pewe

Fantastic! Sounds like we are on the same page. Totally agree with #1 and 2. And that MLB gets pumped up by the breadth of other product lines that people like to collect.

And I guess that is also the point: given Bowman is the only source that most go to for their minor league cards, it makes the relative weight of minor league collecting small compared to MLB.

There you go again, attempting to lump the rest of Topps MLB products on the coat tails of Flagship to claim they are a bigger part of the market than they are. What a joke.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

That is simply not accurate. Most RC collectors also collect 1st bowmans and vice versa. And only a small percentage of those who collect 1st bowmans also collect true minor league releases like Heritage Minors, Pro Debut, etc... It's simply not accurate to lump 1st bowman collectors as "minor league" collectors. That's not the hobby as it exists.

So you are saying that most MLB RC collectors evenly emphasize picking up RC and minor league rookies?

Sounds like you have the beginnings of a poll right there.

My hypothesis that the market segments a bit more is formed by:
-- participation patterns in the player threads (some individuals seem to emphasize one or the other... some do both, too, but even they often skew)
-- total revenues to the two different categories are 10x towards MLB, which suggests they are at least imbalanced at an overall market level. Which would make it difficult to project that they are collected evenly.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

There you go again, attempting to lump the rest of Topps MLB products on the coat tails of Flagship to claim they are a bigger part of the market than they are. What a joke.

I'm not sure I understand this comment. Are you saying spending on all other MLB product together is... less than flagship? not relevant when considering peoples' MLB collecting habits / where they spend money? something else?

[OhioLawyerF5]

Originally Posted by pewe

So you are saying that most MLB RC collectors evenly emphasize picking up RC and minor league rookies?

Sounds like you have the beginnings of a poll right there.

My hypothesis that the market segments a bit more is formed by:
-- participation patterns in the player threads (some individuals seem to emphasize one or the other... some do both, too, but even they often skew)
-- total revenues to the two different categories are 10x towards MLB, which suggests they are at least imbalanced at an overall market level. Which would make it difficult to project that they are collected evenly.

My hypothesis is that most collectors who collect major league rookies also collect 1st bowmans. And that they make up the same general market segment. That all other non-flagship MLB products appeal to a different general segment of the hobby than RC/1st Bowman collectors. That looking at MLB releases vs. "minor league" releases doesn't tell you much at all about the hobby because of the appeal 1st bowman cards have to MLB RC collectors.

I agree that a poll is in order, but I disagree that the information gathered on this site will tell you much of the story as only a tiny segment of the market participates in online message boards. Further, I don't think drawing conclusions from player collector threads is very reliable when you are looking to draw conclusions on the market as a whole. It will grossly skew your results since that niche collecting group specifically target all cards of a player from 1st bowman through every year during and after their careers. The general collecting public does not do that.