The Zion 'Fatboi' Williamson Career LDL/HDL Tracker | BBW Appreciation Megathread.

[Bob Ross]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

[numbersguy]

Originally Posted by Dame

Gotcha, thanks. Should’ve clarified, either a PSA 10 or sealed.

Here's the jersey numbered 1/5 sealed if you or anyone interested.

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[TimBuckTwo]

Originally Posted by numbersguy

Here's the jersey numbered 1/5 sealed if you or anyone interested.

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Quanto?

[punctilious]

Originally Posted by numbersguy

Here's the jersey numbered 1/5 sealed if you or anyone interested.

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Check your inbox.

[brock]

Originally Posted by punctilious

Check your inbox.

Punctilious continues to Hoover up the good Zion cards!




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[Spacemanspif]

So I know the attention-deprived concern-troll created a separate thread where everyone is free to spew hyperbolic nonsense, but I wanted to just address a point here where we can come back to review later:



The idea that Zion is "priced in as the next LeBron, MVP, etc" is again, outdated and I don't think was ever true, at least relative to his peers. Here's a snapshot of pricing and POP as of Nov 17, 2021 for the top 5 prospects. I just used average of last 3 sales to avoid any "last sold" outliers, and obviously can't use LaMelo and Edwards until we have more cards graded. Zion is basically in line with every not named Luka. The variance in order between the remaining 4 depending on card is weird and doesn't seem to be completely tied to POP

[brock]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

So I know the attention-deprived concern-troll created a separate thread where everyone is free to spew hyperbolic nonsense, but I wanted to just address a point here where we can come back to review later:



The idea that Zion is "priced in as the next LeBron, MVP, etc" is again, outdated and I don't think was ever true, at least relative to his peers. Here's a snapshot of pricing and POP as of Nov 17, 2021 for the top 5 prospects. I just used average of last 3 sales to avoid any "last sold" outliers, and obviously can't use LaMelo and Edwards until we have more cards graded. Zion is basically in line with every not named Luka. The variance in order between the remaining 4 depending on card is weird and doesn't seem to be completely tied to POP

He is overhyped! Priced like he can turn water into wine!!

Have you seen his gait?!

To quote your favorite (my least favorite) Draymond Green: "I didn't know the people in [BO] were that smart when it came to your body movement. I'm not sure if they took kinesiology and all this stuff for their positions [on BO]..."


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[Wade Mulroy]

This goes out to all my fellow Zion collectors. No matter how many troll posts and fat memes get posted on the internet, just keep this song in your heart

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

So I know the attention-deprived concern-troll created a separate thread where everyone is free to spew hyperbolic nonsense, but I wanted to just address a point here where we can come back to review later:



The idea that Zion is "priced in as the next LeBron, MVP, etc" is again, outdated and I don't think was ever true, at least relative to his peers. Here's a snapshot of pricing and POP as of Nov 17, 2021 for the top 5 prospects. I just used average of last 3 sales to avoid any "last sold" outliers, and obviously can't use LaMelo and Edwards until we have more cards graded. Zion is basically in line with every not named Luka. The variance in order between the remaining 4 depending on card is weird and doesn't seem to be completely tied to POP

His pricing now is irrelevant since it's dropped well over 50% from the highs.

From mid 2020 - early 2021 Zion base PSA10s were doing $800-1000 consistently.

Ja during that same timeframe was HALF of Zion.

To say he wasn't priced for perfection is absolutely wrong because he was, even if his prices have dropped significantly.

[Wade Mulroy]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

His pricing now is irrelevant since it's dropped well over 50% from the highs.

From mid 2020 - early 2021 Zion base PSA10s were doing $800-1000 consistently.

Ja during that same timeframe was HALF of Zion.

To say he wasn't priced for perfection is absolutely wrong because he was, even if his prices have dropped significantly.

Aren't all of the above examples quite a bit lower from the timeframe you mentioned? I may be wrong since I don't follow prices on all these guys, but when grading was still cheap and the market was on fire, I'm pretty sure all the prices on these guys were bloated. I don't believe Zion is unique in an overall decline in prices since peak 'COVID bubble.'

Zion's decline was certainly exacerbated due to his injury, but I specifically remember Ja Prizm PSA 10's at least getting into the $700s, because I nearly sold a couple copies that I own during that time (and regretfully didnt )

Edit - Just to add, I was looking back at some of my eBay sales from 2020 and sold four 2019-20 Lebron base Prizm cards for $82 each. Point being - if we're looking at prices from roughly a year and a half ago, we also need to take other factors into consideration.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Wade Mulroy

Aren't all of the above examples quite a bit lower from the timeframe you mentioned? I may be wrong since I don't follow prices on all these guys, but when grading was still cheap and the market was on fire, I'm pretty sure all the prices on these guys were bloated. I don't believe Zion is unique in an overall decline in prices since peak 'COVID bubble.'

Zion's decline was certainly exacerbated due to his injury, but I specifically remember Ja Prizm PSA 10's at least getting into the $700s, because I nearly sold a couple copies that I own during that time (and regretfully didnt )

Yes, everything was up but Zion has lost significantly more than his counterparts because he was priced significantly higher from the getgo due to him being hyped as the next great GOAT.

The point I was trying to counter was that Zion wasn't priced for perfection.

the 20MA for Ja during that period was ~$400 and Zion was ~$900. Luka was ~$1200 during that time period so Zion wasn't far off from him and nobody else was even close.

[Wade Mulroy]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Yes, everything was up but Zion has lost significantly more than his counterparts because he was priced significantly higher from the getgo due to him being hyped as the next great GOAT.

The point I was trying to counter was that Zion wasn't priced for perfection.

the 20MA for Ja during that period was ~$400 and Zion was ~$900. Luka was ~$1200 during that time period so Zion wasn't far off from him and nobody else was even close.

Thanks - I appreciate the info.

I certainly won't argue that anyone paying $900+ (or anywhere near that) for a Zion base PSA 10 isn't crazy.

I do think current prices are a good entry point for Zion. I'd be shocked if his prices don't at least bump in the short term once he's back on the floor.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Wade Mulroy

Thanks - I appreciate the info.

I certainly won't argue that anyone paying $900+ (or anywhere near that) for a Zion base PSA 10 isn't crazy.

I do think current prices are a good entry point for Zion. I'd be shocked if his prices don't at least bump in the short term once he's back on the floor.

I’d say it really depends on what you’re buying.

If you’re buying base PSA 10s, they’re probably not going to have a meaningful bump unless he comes back at an MVP level.

I certainly wouldn’t be buying now, it’s going to be weeks maybe months before he’s back to playing at Zion level and the Pelicans are absolute garbage. This coming off season is probably the sweet spot to try and make the hype trade

[ctgalloway21]

grabbed a Phoenix PSA 10 for $40. Too cheap not too.

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by ctgalloway21

grabbed a Phoenix PSA 10 for $40. Too cheap not too.

Wow, that is crazy cheap

[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

His pricing now is irrelevant since it's dropped well over 50% from the highs.

From mid 2020 - early 2021 Zion base PSA10s were doing $800-1000 consistently.

Ja during that same timeframe was HALF of Zion.

To say he wasn't priced for perfection is absolutely wrong because he was, even if his prices have dropped significantly.

What? C'mon man gtfo with pricing now is irrelevant. It's the only thing that IS relevant, especially in the context of the concern trolling over "should you be worried?", because there's no reason to worry when he's basically bottomed out. I prefaced the entire thing with how the idea is outdated, which makes you prove my point more than disprove. Also, how do you quote his peak pricing but not the peak pricing for the other guys? They all peak and dip, and restricting your view to only during HIS spike is an intellectually dishonest way to have this conversation. Every player has a "stupid base or silver spike" from late 2020 and early 2021 that is never coming back, it's not exclusive to Zion and even your cherry picked numbers had Luka higher, and his peak was $2000 if we're talking about "priced for perfection"

I know you'll shrug off anything as "well you have Zion cards and are therefore biased so I won't listen to you". Fine. But I'm also right in saying that he's currently fallen to such a degree that the risk reward is now probably favorable relative to other prospects. Is he a risk to fall off more? Sure. But he's also got a much higher ceiling than his hobby peers, so depending on your risk tolerance I think certain cards are a good buy at this point. Obviously not the base cards, but they are the best way to index a player at this point due to sales volume.

[imbluestreak23]

I miss Fat Boy. NBA hasn't been fun without him.

Holding my two fine 9 on card autos unphased.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by Spacemanspif

What? C'mon man gtfo with pricing now is irrelevant. It's the only thing that IS relevant, especially in the context of the concern trolling over "should you be worried?", because there's no reason to worry when he's basically bottomed out. I prefaced the entire thing with how the idea is outdated, which makes you prove my point more than disprove. Also, how do you quote his peak pricing but not the peak pricing for the other guys? They all peak and dip, and restricting your view to only during HIS spike is an intellectually dishonest way to have this conversation. Every player has a "stupid base or silver spike" from late 2020 and early 2021 that is never coming back, it's not exclusive to Zion and even your cherry picked numbers had Luka higher, and his peak was $2000 if we're talking about "priced for perfection"

I know you'll shrug off anything as "well you have Zion cards and are therefore biased so I won't listen to you". Fine. But I'm also right in saying that he's currently fallen to such a degree that the risk reward is now probably favorable relative to other prospects. Is he a risk to fall off more? Sure. But he's also got a much higher ceiling than his hobby peers, so depending on your risk tolerance I think certain cards are a good buy at this point. Obviously not the base cards, but they are the best way to index a player at this point due to sales volume.

Basically bottomed out... famous last words right there.

I didn't cherry pick any numbers, he was priced higher than every other player not named Luka (who was also priced for perfection).

You think the risk reward is within your personal tolerance... fine. Doesn't really matter either way to me. You want to hold stuff that has little to no chance of reclaiming previous highs (what most people bought in at)... that's also fine. The hobby moves on real quick and when titles and MVPs were priced in from day 1 it's going to be a REALLY steep climb back up.

You have a naturally depreciating asset of a player with a concerning injury history on a terrible team. Add on top of that, most people bought into his stuff with MVP level expectations priced in and that's a recipe for disaster.

At this point perennial all-star level career would be a disappointment and his cards slowly slip into obscurity over time.

[PKIPP]

I think I’m actually about to scoop a few Zions. Had no idea how low prices have dropped. Just want one cool one for the pc but might grab some to flip later. Easy $$


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[Spacemanspif]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Basically bottomed out... famous last words right there.

I didn't cherry pick any numbers, he was priced higher than every other player not named Luka (who was also priced for perfection).

You think the risk reward is within your personal tolerance... fine. Doesn't really matter either way to me. You want to hold stuff that has little to no chance of reclaiming previous highs (what most people bought in at)... that's also fine. The hobby moves on real quick and when titles and MVPs were priced in from day 1 it's going to be a REALLY steep climb back up.

You have a naturally depreciating asset of a player with a concerning injury history on a terrible team. Add on top of that, most people bought into his stuff with MVP level expectations priced in and that's a recipe for disaster.

At this point perennial all-star level career would be a disappointment and his cards slowly slip into obscurity over time.

Wade: Ja peaked at $700
You: yeah, but during Zion's spike, they were $400.
You: I didn't cherry pick numbers
Me: ok.

I don't think peak prices are coming back, for any player. If we want to talk about relevance...

"Peak price of Prizm bass" is irrelevant
"I bought in at X" is irrelevant (except for taxes)
Prizm/Optic/Select Bass are largely irrelevant (for myself and others here, but as mentioned are the best way to index a player)
The injury history and team sucking are definitely relevant, but at this point are priced in.

The only thing that matters at this point is where you think a card's value will go relative to today. If you think it goes down, Sell. If you think it will increase, Buy or Hodl. The Phoenix PSA 10 is a great example of a low-stakes buy. If he comes back and plays well, could you flip it for $60? I'd say that is a very likely scenario, and at 50% ROI I'd say it's probably a better play than a lot of things right now.

I'm personally just waiting for the announcement of when he's playing again, because... "should I have sold everything this summer?", well yeah of course, but I can't do anything about that now. Do I expect a bump once he gets in shape and starts playing again, which will make his cards more valuable than they are today? Yes, that's what I'm banking on at this point, and clearing out my Ja Morant and Jordan Pooles and other junk in the meantime

[brock]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Basically bottomed out... famous last words right there.

I didn't cherry pick any numbers, he was priced higher than every other player not named Luka (who was also priced for perfection).

You think the risk reward is within your personal tolerance... fine. Doesn't really matter either way to me. You want to hold stuff that has little to no chance of reclaiming previous highs (what most people bought in at)... that's also fine. The hobby moves on real quick and when titles and MVPs were priced in from day 1 it's going to be a REALLY steep climb back up.

You have a naturally depreciating asset of a player with a concerning injury history on a terrible team. Add on top of that, most people bought into his stuff with MVP level expectations priced in and that's a recipe for disaster.

At this point perennial all-star level career would be a disappointment and his cards slowly slip into obscurity over time.

You are forgetting that this guy is the most lovable Pooh Bear in the league and was a global phenomenon in college. If he is an All Star, his fan base will be much bigger than all other equivalent All Stars. Starting life on the pelicans sucks. And so do a few injuries... But to think he'll just 'be an All Star' isn't very objective at all.

Also, your constant self defense of "I'm just objective and you are not," gets old. Many of your takes are terrible. No matter how objective you think you are.




Additionally, Zion is not just a dunker. What makes him unique is he is truly enormous. If he slows down slightly, he'll adjust and learn how to more perfectly use his monster frame to creat space. He is an elite non-dunking finisher. In other words, I think he'll age gracefully. No reason to think he can't dominate in a Z-Bo style of earthbound attacks at age 32+

And yeah, he was the most heralded of his class. Rightfully so, but he hasn't been more than 2x of Ja at any point really. And a bunch of guys were nipping at Ja's heels.


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[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by brock

You are forgetting that this guy is the most lovable Pooh Bear in the league and was a global phenomenon in college. If he is an All Star, his fan base will be much bigger than all other equivalent All Stars. Starting life on the pelicans sucks. And so do a few injuries... But to think he'll just 'be an All Star' isn't very objective at all.

Also, your constant self defense of "I'm just objective and you are not," gets old. Many of your takes are terrible. No matter how objective you think you are.




Additionally, Zion is not just a dunker. What makes him unique is he is truly enormous. If he slows down slightly, he'll adjust and learn how to more perfectly use his monster frame to creat space. He is an elite non-dunking finisher. In other words, I think he'll age gracefully. No reason to think he can't dominate in a Z-Bo style of earthbound attacks at age 32+

And yeah, he was the most heralded of his class. Rightfully so, but he hasn't been more than 2x of Ja at any point really. And a bunch of guys were nipping at Ja's heels.


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Where did I say this? I didn't say anyone here was or was not objective. Plus, you can have a bad take and still be objective so that's pretty irrelevant. Talk about a strawman... You're just mad because I don't believe in the Wizards and called their supporting cast bums or something along those lines

You're holding an illiquid, depreciating asset praying for a catalyst with a mountain of risk ahead of you. If that's within your tolerance of risk, great.

You can say he'll age gracefully but you're literally just guessing based on? Nothing substantive. We have plenty of history that shows big men and foot injuries don't mix. You believe Zion will be the outlier, that's cool but it's just a guess.

Even with all that, nothing changes the fact that people priced in all-time great into his cards from the start (which was literally what I said from the beginning). Regardless of how far his cards have fallen those expectations are still priced in whether you want to believe it or not, and anything short of those expectations and the cards go down in value.

If he ends up dominating like ZBo (your words, not mine) he will be an epic disappointment and his cards will eventually be worthless.

[tjforce]

I think both sides of the argument have valid points...

Lower end Zion is not priced like he's going to be LeBron... not now anyways. At under $300 a pop, there is room for the PSA 10 Prizms to do well over the next few years if he comes back and dominates for an extended period of time.

Anybody who bought at the peak of near $1,000 for this Prizm PSA 10 obviously didn't understand just how many copies of this card there would end up being. It's the modern 1989 Griffey... in that there will always enough copies of the card for any collector who wants one to have one (even if not in PSA 10)

That's not to say I'm bullish or bearish on Zion. I will say that the time of him being viewed as an absolute can't miss investment is over with. There is risk, and there is upside.... which is probably where he should be at the moment.

[Akphillips86]

Many from the “I told you so” crowd with Zion based their negative opinions on how they thought Zion’s abilities were deficient and that he was unable to create his own shot, lacked sufficient ball handling skills, would get shut down by great defenders etc. That crowd was largely silenced by his otherworldly efficiency and his ability to repeat his stellar performances nearly every night regardless of opponent.

On the other hand, there’s the crowd that had concerns about his health and there is undeniably validity and legitimacy in regard to these perspectives. While I hope Zion overcomes his health issues, there is a level of risk that I’m not personally comfortable carrying to the tune of thousands of dollars. Some are, and they will most definitely rewarded if he comes back and stays on the floor consistently.

I differentiate between who I root for and who I hold cardboard money of. I sold what little Zion I had left (nothing big) because I know that there will probably still be a fairly large buying window to buy back in down the road and I’m moving to some less volatile things for my long term PC. I will happily buy back in down the road (even at higher prices) if his health looks to be heading in a positive direction. He’s a heck of a lot of fun to watch and I can’t wait for him to get back on the floor.


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[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Akphillips86

Many from the “I told you so” crowd with Zion based their negative opinions on how they thought Zion’s abilities were deficient and that he was unable to create his own shot, lacked sufficient ball handling skills, would get shut down by great defenders etc. That crowd was largely silenced by his otherworldly efficiency and his ability to repeat his stellar performances nearly every night regardless of opponent.

On the other hand, there’s the crowd that had concerns about his health and there is undeniably validity and legitimacy in regard to these perspectives. While I hope Zion overcomes his health issues, there is a level of risk that I’m not personally comfortable carrying to the tune of thousands of dollars. Some are, and they will most definitely rewarded if he comes back and stays on the floor consistently.

I differentiate between who I root for and who I hold cardboard money of. I sold what little Zion I had left (nothing big) because I know that there will probably still be a fairly large buying window to buy back in down the road and I’m moving to some less volatile things for my long term PC. I will happily buy back in down the road (even at higher prices) if his health looks to be heading in a positive direction. He’s a heck of a lot of fun to watch and I can’t wait for him to get back on the floor.


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If you told me that you had a crystal ball and could see in the future that for the next 15 years Zion would have no health issues and he would reach his full potential, I would load up on as much key stuff as I could right now.

He has the ceiling to be great, things just need to work out and that's not a given that they do.