The Official Stock Market Thread

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by cms11

Powell says there's danger of stagflation.

https://x.com/JustinWolfers/status/1920178869543334018

We asked you some questions a few pages back that you ran away from.

Originally Posted by finfangfan

I’m not disputing the 10% down for many stocks since Jan, but where did you get a 4.5% “guaranteed” return on your “all cash” over the same 3 months? Also, I will reiterate the above and ask what has to happen for you to get back in the market?

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Crazy to sell off your retirement holdings into cash. But let us know when you start to pivot.

[KhalDrogo]

I see people poo pooing on the UK deal this morning and the market’s reaction. The UK is irrelevant on trade, blah, blah, blah. It must suck to always so badly misinterpret what the market is looking for.

[NYBBFAN]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I see people poo pooing on the UK deal this morning and the market’s reaction. The UK is irrelevant on trade, blah, blah, blah. It must suck to always so badly misinterpret what the market is looking for.

It’s hard for those people to make money when they don’t understand basics like: "the market craves certainty".

[finfangfan]

Looks like we should open solidly green.

[cnewby]

Originally Posted by finfangfan

Looks like we should open solidly green.

[finfangfan]

Originally Posted by patchgenie

saw Pfizer was still interested in obesity. I picked up VKTX/GPCR as I think they could be interested in them. PFE's obesity drug danu-whatever flopped. not too sure on MTSR. potentially SRRK if their obesity drug is any good. who knows

Looks like ALT is another ticker being mentioned along with VKTX/GPCR that could be bought out by PFE. Do you own any of that one?

[finfangfan]

Good day to trim some recent gains. Someone mentioned URA upthread a few pages back and I’ve been slowly adding to that one as a more longterm play.

[oldgoldy97]

What would be the best option:

Sell a stock and pay off a mortgage that no longer gives a tax break.
Sell the stock and buy an ETF that pays a decent dividend and use that to pay the mortgage payment monthly until it’s paid off.
Keep the stock and reinvest the current dividends and then hope the stock rebounds in 10-20 years.

[NYBBFAN]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

What would be the best option:

Sell a stock and pay off a mortgage that no longer gives a tax break.
Sell the stock and buy an ETF that pays a decent dividend and use that to pay the mortgage payment monthly until it’s paid off.
Keep the stock and reinvest the current dividends and then hope the stock rebounds in 10-20 years.

There are some other factors at play.
What is the stock dividend rate, proposed ETF dividend rate, and what is the mortgage rate?
Sounds like the stock is down. If so, is it a short term or long term capital loss? There are some tax implications there.
You also may want to wait on the SALT deduction decisions that should be made sometime this year.

[Viking6]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

What would be the best option:

Sell a stock and pay off a mortgage that no longer gives a tax break.
Sell the stock and buy an ETF that pays a decent dividend and use that to pay the mortgage payment monthly until it’s paid off.
Keep the stock and reinvest the current dividends and then hope the stock rebounds in 10-20 years.

I would think that depends on the rate on your mortgage. If that rate is 3% then the money in hand should provide a better return than the interest savings.

[oldgoldy97]

6.25 mortgage, six years left.

Current stock dividend rate is 6%, the one I’m looking at is closer to 11 but high risk.

I’m not sure of the cost basis. It might actually be at a loss.

[NYBBFAN]

Oh so your interest payments are minimal anyway with only 6 years left. It would be stupid to re-mortgage your house in the future, so I’d leave myself some flexibility and keep the capital, just in case.

Option B is a winner in my book: Sell the stock and buy an ETF that pays a decent dividend and use that to pay the mortgage payment monthly until it’s paid off.

Now to find a 6.25% dividend stock or ETF. Depending on your risk tolerance, some preferred shares can do this.

[Josh611]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

6.25 mortgage, six years left.

Current stock dividend rate is 6%, the one I’m looking at is closer to 11 but high risk.

I’m not sure of the cost basis. It might actually be at a loss.

JEPQ.

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by Josh611

JEPQ.

Correct

[oldgoldy97]

Originally Posted by NYBBFAN

Oh so your interest payments are minimal anyway with only 6 years left. It would be stupid to re-mortgage your house in the future, so I’d leave myself some flexibility and keep the capital, just in case.

Option B is a winner in my book: Sell the stock and buy an ETF that pays a decent dividend and use that to pay the mortgage payment monthly until it’s paid off.

Now to find a 6.25% dividend stock or ETF. Depending on your risk tolerance, some preferred shares can do this.

The stock is not part of my retirement plan. It was options from a previous job that I’ve been hanging on to.

[Josh611]

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

Correct

I like that option actually.

Opportunity for growth and pays you while waiting.

You can even sell calls and collect more premium. Take the proceeds and buy the Q’s.

[finfangfan]

TSLA with a nice 7% jump this morning. I trimmed a little.

[finfangfan]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Last chance to abandon ship!

Unless a deal is made with china, the market is doomed.

The S&P 500 closed at 5268 on April 10 when you made this post and is up nearly 8% in the month since then. Are you still sitting out of the market?

[NYBBFAN]

Originally Posted by Josh611

JEPQ.

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

Correct

That is very tech-heavy and has a .35% expense ratio. If it were my money, I would go with AGM/PD @ 5.7% and STRK @ 8%. Half your money in each yields 6.85%.

AGM/PD has some interest rate sensitivity, and STRK is MSTR/Bitcoin exposure. Half-boring, half-exciting

[pejc300]

I genuinely envy those of you in this space who know what you are doing.

Serious question - how long do you think it takes to learn the "basics" of investing, to get to a point where you can actually make wise-ish moves on the regular?

I generally think it takes about 2-4 years to learn something new and become above average. For example, I have been making money in cards for the last 15 years, profit every year. I am an expert-ish at cards. When new people come in to the hobby, I tell them it takes at least 2 solid years, but probably more like 3-4 to truly get a handle on it and be in a situation where you can consistently make money. I also advise that you will make many many mistakes in the first few years and lose a good amount of money as you learn.

What do you all think about the timeframe for this space? I suspect it is no different - a lot of losses for a few years but then you get the hang of it? I would love all your thoughts.

I honestly no NOTHING about this space. I just consistently put money into my ROTH IRA and work retirement plan that are both managed by others.

[carlo16]

Originally Posted by pejc300

I genuinely envy those of you in this space who know what you are doing.

Serious question - how long do you think it takes to learn the "basics" of investing, to get to a point where you can actually make wise-ish moves on the regular?

I generally think it takes about 2-4 years to learn something new and become above average. For example, I have been making money in cards for the last 15 years, profit every year. I am an expert-ish at cards. When new people come in to the hobby, I tell them it takes at least 2 solid years, but probably more like 3-4 to truly get a handle on it and be in a situation where you can consistently make money. I also advise that you will make many many mistakes in the first few years and lose a good amount of money as you learn.

What do you all think about the timeframe for this space? I suspect it is no different - a lot of losses for a few years but then you get the hang of it? I would love all your thoughts.

I honestly no NOTHING about this space. I just consistently put money into my ROTH IRA and work retirement plan that are both managed by others.

The return on your Roth is probably higher than anyone’s personal trading account in this thread.

[finfangfan]

FNKO was still on my watchlist since early COVID when I made a little money on it. I ended up buying 100 shares at $3.60 just for kicks.

[KhalDrogo]

It depends on how quickly you are able to remove your emotions from your investing. But for me, having achieved financial flexibility was a prerequisite for really getting the ball rolling. It’s hard to trade effectively and with conviction if you don’t always have adequate cash on hand and the assurance that more is coming.

[patchgenie]

Originally Posted by finfangfan

Looks like ALT is another ticker being mentioned along with VKTX/GPCR that could be bought out by PFE. Do you own any of that one?

no, no one I follow mentions ALT as being competitive or at all really. for obesity.

investing is just:
1. having high revenue growth quarter over quarter
2. the lower the # of shares the higher the return! like DAVE or WGS(semafor)
3. CEO or mgmt owns a lot of the stock like SEZL or DRUG
4. hot flavor of the time trends: AI, quantum, weed, fake coin holding Co's!(now), a short time period for F-tier Israel based co's (NUKK and other random ones)

a lot of businesses are pure garbage! the stock is the business for a lot of these. u have to find out how fast they burn cash and pay worthless mgmt salaries.

some short selling books are good to recognize the art of the grift.

[ajlaxmn]

Originally Posted by pejc300

I genuinely envy those of you in this space who know what you are doing.

Serious question - how long do you think it takes to learn the "basics" of investing, to get to a point where you can actually make wise-ish moves on the regular?

I generally think it takes about 2-4 years to learn something new and become above average. For example, I have been making money in cards for the last 15 years, profit every year. I am an expert-ish at cards. When new people come in to the hobby, I tell them it takes at least 2 solid years, but probably more like 3-4 to truly get a handle on it and be in a situation where you can consistently make money. I also advise that you will make many many mistakes in the first few years and lose a good amount of money as you learn.

What do you all think about the timeframe for this space? I suspect it is no different - a lot of losses for a few years but then you get the hang of it? I would love all your thoughts.

I honestly no NOTHING about this space. I just consistently put money into my ROTH IRA and work retirement plan that are both managed by others.

I personally think two years gets you a good start to learning trend lines, support/resistance, how the stock market works, etc.... Nowhere near expert or very skilled, but definitely a realistic timeframe to make a significant knowledge leap.

Also depends on how much effort you put into it. 1-2 hours everyday for two years learning/watching videos/reading books/charting levels/paper trading (fakes trades) is going to yield better knowledge results than doing it only 1-2 hours each week for two years.