Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.

[JeHHH]

Originally Posted by dream34

Thanks All great points. Have them because they are clearly his best buys and have a chance to be his best cards. Already in on his Mystery Auto and don't miss often on these things. Pretty sure it'll end up the right call. If his raw NNOs are selling at $35-40 and they made 100k of them then if/when he performs well, his Base Chromes at 1/7th the cost and 60% the print run will most likely move up. If he goes MVP level, those Base (Silver) Refractors & Colors will be absolute monsters.

Put another way, what would a 2018 Topps Chrome #201 Acuna Bat Down Blue Refractor /150 be worth right now if they made one?

Originally Posted by notfast

If you're buying 19 Topps Chrome Vlad expecting some massive jump in price...I direct you to 18 Topps Chrome #193 Acuna.

Dream34 brings up some great points (as usual).

The Acuna topps chrome is less desirable because it’s a completely different picture than his flagship RC. Vlad’s 201 chrome has the same image which makes it a game changer.

Print run is a big factor as well.

[chohouston]

Originally Posted by notfast

If you're buying 19 Topps Chrome Vlad expecting some massive jump in price...I direct you to 18 Topps Chrome #193 Acuna.

the difference is the NNO is his card and there are no parellels!

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[chohouston]

Originally Posted by dream34

Everything will be dependent on his performance. And how have those TC colors done for you? I'll pick them up at whatever you paid for them if you like No problem standing by what I wrote, strongly feel a Blue Refractor /150 will outpace a Sapphire going forward. Sapphire is Sapphire, yes. Go ahead and take a look at how many TC Colors are even up for sale. I see 1 Green & 1 Orange, that's it. I posted a buy for his TC Refractors a little while ago and had no hits at all. People are just not selling these, great long term holds and huge inefficiencies right now.

im down too to take any color parallels from anyone if they wish to unload lol

I agree with all your points here

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[chohouston]

but the sapphire will still be a solid card

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[dream34]

Originally Posted by notfast

If you're buying 19 Topps Chrome Vlad expecting some massive jump in price...I direct you to 18 Topps Chrome #193 Acuna.

I do

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

tough to compare, as FatBoys TC has the same picture as his Flagship RC

Yup. Maybe this will help a little more




What would an Acuna Bat Down Refractor be worth? I think we get a better idea if Vladdy performs and when his market settles a little more.

[drstrader5]

Anyone make it to the bobble head signing last month?




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[notfast]

Originally Posted by JeHHH

Dream34 brings up some great points (as usual).

The Acuna topps chrome is less desirable because it’s a completely different picture than his flagship RC. Vlad’s 201 chrome has the same image which makes it a game changer.

Print run is a big factor as well.

I'm gonna have to disagree. Ohtani 2018 Topps Chrome follows the "same pic" thing you guys are talking about and the chrome is an afterthought. Sure the color has some value but it will never grow like flagship topps parallels or sapphire.

Expecting something different from Vlad doesn't make sense IMO.

[dream34]

Originally Posted by notfast

I'm gonna have to disagree. Ohtani 2018 Topps Chrome follows the "same pic" thing you guys are talking about and the chrome is an afterthought. Sure the color has some value but it will never grow like flagship topps parallels or sapphire.

Expecting something different from Vlad doesn't make sense IMO.

(Looks for Flagship Guerrero NNO Parallels. Comes back 3 hours later...)

How much does Ohtani's Flagship RC sell for? How much is his TC Refractor with the same image?

[JeHHH]

Originally Posted by notfast

I'm gonna have to disagree. Ohtani 2018 Topps Chrome follows the "same pic" thing you guys are talking about and the chrome is an afterthought. Sure the color has some value but it will never grow like flagship topps parallels or sapphire.

Expecting something different from Vlad doesn't make sense IMO.

You’re right, my explanation was poor as I was missing the key information below. No NNO parallels in flagship. If you want parallels you have to buy topps chrome.

Originally Posted by dream34

(Looks for Flagship Guerrero NNO Parallels. Comes back 3 hours later...)

How much does Ohtani's Flagship RC sell for? How much is his TC Refractor with the same image?

[dream34]

I get it though, you are saying that all the interest will be consolidated and flow even more concentrated on the NNO, which wouldn't be surprising.

I think it's short sighted though and I think in the long run at least the Refractors, and definitely the Colors, get a lot more attention. He's a long play for me anyway so don't mind seeing how it eventually plays out.

[notfast]

Originally Posted by dream34

(Looks for Flagship Guerrero NNO Parallels. Comes back 3 hours later...)

How much does Ohtani's Flagship RC sell for? How much is his TC Refractor with the same image?

A base paper psa 10 is about $20-25...A TC Ref recently sold for $24.50 plus shipping.

Originally Posted by JeHHH

You’re right, my explanation was poor as I was missing the key information below. No NNO parallels in flagship. If you want parallels you have to buy topps chrome.

What I'm saying is if flagship color doesn't exist, it goes to Update....not chrome. This is already proven when Update Gold /2018 is selling for significantly more than Topps Chrome Blue /150 and almost as much as a Gold Chrome /50.

Originally Posted by dream34

I get it though, you are saying that all the interest will be consolidated and flow even more concentrated on the NNO, which wouldn't be surprising.

I think it's short sighted though and I think in the long run at least the Refractors, and definitely the Colors, get a lot more attention. He's a long play for me anyway so don't mind seeing how it eventually plays out.

I'm not saying they won't see a spike if everything sees a spike....But history has shown that Topps Chrome will sit behind the NNO/Update and there is no reason to think otherwise.

[eye4talent]

A mystery auto PSA 9 just popped up at $400/obo. I offered $300, and it was accepted within about 20 seconds. Did I overpay??


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[Hail2TheVictors]

Originally Posted by dream34

I do



Yup. Maybe this will help a little more




What would an Acuna Bat Down Refractor be worth? I think we get a better idea if Vladdy performs and when his market settles a little more.

You’re looking way too far into this. This isn’t about the picture, it’s about the brand. TC, as a brand, will lag behind.

But it’s certainly not from a lack of effort on your part. It gets old seeing people constantly hype/pump things for personal gain. We get it, you like the tc ref.

[Wrigs37]

Originally Posted by notfast

A base paper psa 10 is about $20-25...A TC Ref recently sold for $24.50 plus shipping.



What I'm saying is if flagship color doesn't exist, it goes to Update....not chrome. This is already proven when Update Gold /2018 is selling for significantly more than Topps Chrome Blue /150 and almost as much as a Gold Chrome /50.



I'm not saying they won't see a spike if everything sees a spike....But history has shown that Topps Chrome will sit behind the NNO/Update and there is no reason to think otherwise.

I’m pretty sure there’s only like 2-3 guys on here “Topps” (see what I did there) that actuality think a TC Refractor can compete with Sapphire base or paper flagship in the long run. Print runs don’t mean anything with TC. It’s been ignored for years.

Now if the argument is “I think the Vlad 203 can change that” I guess it’s worthy of discussion, but the likely hood of that is minuscule at the very best. Maybe it changes the already proven blue print a little, but it will never ever be more desirable than an NNO or Sapphire. Come on this is seriously a waste of an argument...

[Wrigs37]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

A mystery auto PSA 9 just popped up at $400/obo. I offered $300, and it was accepted within about 20 seconds. Did I overpay??


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Absolutely not!! I payed $290 for a raw copy 6 weeks ago.... So jealous! Great get by you...

[dmanrico]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

A mystery auto PSA 9 just popped up at $400/obo. I offered $300, and it was accepted within about 20 seconds. Did I overpay??


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I don’t think so at all. That’s a great price. 9s were selling for $250 before the recent spike, so thats a great price. Congrats!

[dream34]

Originally Posted by Hail2TheVictors

You’re looking way too far into this. This isn’t about the picture, it’s about the brand. TC, as a brand, will lag behind.

But it’s certainly not from a lack of effort on your part. It gets old seeing people constantly hype/pump things for personal gain. We get it, you like the tc ref.

I could care less about hyping/pumping things up. I actually post because I see so much hyping/pumping that I feel bad for the average collector reading it.

Good advice is good advice. As far as brand is concerned the current Flagship run has been going for about 1-2 years correct? TC actually has had a much longer run up top and I do like to take the long term view on things.

Put another way, as I see you have a Packers avatar, would you trade your Aaron Rodgers Flagship for a Chrome RC? How about a Jeter 1996 Flagship for a 1996 Chrome? Miggy 2000 Flagship for a Chrome? I'm advising to go ahead and buy into some of the hype, but make sure to hedge what has always worked in the past.

[Keyser Soze]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

A mystery auto PSA 9 just popped up at $400/obo. I offered $300, and it was accepted within about 20 seconds. Did I overpay??


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No, you didn't. Great pickup!

[dream34]

Originally Posted by eye4talent

A mystery auto PSA 9 just popped up at $400/obo. I offered $300, and it was accepted within about 20 seconds. Did I overpay??


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Yup, on board with everyone else. Congrats

[Hail2TheVictors]

Originally Posted by dream34

I could care less about hyping/pumping things up. I actually post because I see so much hyping/pumping that I feel bad for the average collector reading it.

Good advice is good advice. As far as brand is concerned the current Flagship run has been going for about 1-2 years correct? TC actually has had a much longer run up top and I do like to take the long term view on things.

Put another way, as I see you have a Packers avatar, would you trade your Aaron Rodgers Flagship for a Chrome RC? How about a Jeter 1996 Flagship for a 1996 Chrome? Miggy 2000 Flagship for a Chrome? I'm advising to go ahead and buy into some of the hype, but make sure to hedge what has always worked in the past.

The flagship run has been going for more than 1-2 years, I believe. It can be traced to Trout, IMO. Trout's flagship (update) took off, in part due to the fact that he only had a few RC's due to debuting so late in the season. In today's world, Trout would've likely been held back for 2012 Topps Series 1. But at the time, Topps wasn't manipulating things in terms of what release the big boys were put into.

So the flagship became "the RC" to have thanks to the Trout situation imo. It's the one constant among every "hot" player we have seen - each player has a flagship RC. Yelich, Arenado, Acuna, Soto, etc.

Due to all of this, I think the flagship brand is well ahead of TC. And it points to how much this hobby is more like a field of sheep. TC simply doesn't carry as much value as one would expect. Perhaps that starts to change with the recent stud RC's (Acuna, Tatis, Vlad, etc).

[dream34]

Originally Posted by notfast

A base paper psa 10 is about $20-25...A TC Ref recently sold for $24.50 plus shipping.

Yes, and I'd tell anyone to buy the Ohtani Refractor PSA 10. You would tell them to buy the Ohtani paper base PSA 10?

[Wrigs37]

I’m interested to know if the majority of Vlad collectors would prefer a gold 201 TC refractor or a Gold TC Update refractor. They seem to sell for close to the same price. TC with the flagship image and TC update with the update image.

Edit: Hell I might as well through update gold /2019 in as well...

Something about TC update makes me lean that way... I own none, but that could change.

[shortstopguy12]

Vladdy to hit the most HR’s this year on Bodog at 40-1 odds... I threw a few bucks on that one just to rout for the guy!

[BeastMode27]

I’d rather have the Topps Chrome Gold Vlad over Update Chrome Gold. Can’t even compare to Acuna’s topps chrome. I had a 9.5 Acuna Gold Refractor and you could barely even tell it was Gold, it looked like a regular Refractor. It was awful. And it doesn’t even look like Acuna in the pic. The Topps Chrome Vlad is the pic he will be known by. And the colors pop infinitely better than 2018 chrome. The Topps Chrome Vlad color has potential, but probably won’t touch Sapphire.

[JeHHH]

Originally Posted by Hail2TheVictors

The flagship run has been going for more than 1-2 years, I believe. It can be traced to Trout, IMO. Trout's flagship (update) took off, in part due to the fact that he only had a few RC's due to debuting so late in the season. In today's world, Trout would've likely been held back for 2012 Topps Series 1. But at the time, Topps wasn't manipulating things in terms of what release the big boys were put into.

So the flagship became "the RC" to have thanks to the Trout situation imo. It's the one constant among every "hot" player we have seen - each player has a flagship RC. Yelich, Arenado, Acuna, Soto, etc.

Due to all of this, I think the flagship brand is well ahead of TC. And it points to how much this hobby is more like a field of sheep. TC simply doesn't carry as much value as one would expect. Perhaps that starts to change with the recent stud RC's (Acuna, Tatis, Vlad, etc).

I think you raise some valid points but I think you need to analyze it on a player-by-player basis.

Yes, flagship NNO is the RC to have - no doubt there. I think the reason why a lot us really like the 201 chrome is because of the option of "NNO parallels" somewhat like how the sapphire is the only parallel to the Bat Down for Acuna.

Flagship Update parallels will have their place as well, no argument there either. But they aren't the NNO flagship.

I think if Acuna's 198 chrome was a Bat Down, those would be selling for a lot more.

It seems like Vlad's 201 chromes have a chance to become a lot more valuable given the specific circumstances to his RC's out there. And the chrome paralells are TOUGH to find now.