✹The PERENNIAL Shohei Ohtani Thread✹

[Tim]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Base was live and some of the rarest colors (I know orange) were redemptions.

You talking topps chrome? Someone posted a few pages back that purple autos were live.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by Tim

The point is the sealed product goes for way more than it should compared to what the chase or rookie card goes for (in the example I gave).

I 100% agree with you that boxes go for more than they should, but the cost per box being a whopping 1/3 to 1/4 the exact grail you're chasing is not going to last. That's not gambling, it's idiocy.

[Tim]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

When he asked about chrome redemptions, he meant Topps chrome. Bowman pitching is all live.

Still, I am more in your camp. 3-4x the price of a box to hit exactly what you're looking for...yeah... (unless you're under illusion to hit a blue/gold/orange/red). Remember, there is no refractor /499 here .

To be clear I am not advocating opening any of these boxes lol.

[NYRE2PECT]

I love to open wax, but have moved the last year or two firmly into the camp of - if you want a card, buy the card, just do not chase it.

[Tim]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

I 100% agree with you that boxes go for more than they should, but the cost per box being a whopping 1/3 to 1/4 the exact grail you're chasing is not going to last. That's not gambling, it's idiocy.

Well i agree if the purpose is to open. But history disagrees on sealed product. Sealed always climbs relative to content. 2001 bowman chrome is another ridiculous example. Sealed is a great investment if you keep it sealed.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by Tim

Well i agree if the purpose is to open. But history disagrees on sealed product. Sealed always climbs relative to content. 2001 bowman chrome is another ridiculous example. Sealed is a great investment if you keep it sealed.

Right, but the point of my initial response was to make the point that you will probably have a better ROI spending $3-4k on a BCA versus buying 3-4 hobby boxes. I don't think the multiples of the BCA to box are going to get any more favorable. Do you?

[Tim]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Right, but the point of my initial response was to make the point that you will probably have a better ROI spending $3-4k on a BCA versus buying 3-4 hobby boxes. I don't think the multiples of the BCA to box are going to get any more favorable. Do you?

I'm saying it's 50 50 if you look at some wild examples like the 2 I threw out there. Would buy the ohtani card for sure BUT if he has an opportunity to pick up boxes at slightly below market it's also wise.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by Tim

I'm saying it's 50 50 if you look at some wild examples like the 2 I threw out there. Would buy the ohtani card for sure BUT if he has an opportunity to pick up boxes at slightly below market it's also wise.

Agree to disagree on the 50/50 in this specific case, but there is no right or wrong way to invest in a player.

[BBases31]

2019 Sapphire Super being auctioned. Guesses on what this goes for? 5k?

https://www.ebay.com/itm/32475439813...cAAOSwhj1g8Diy

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by BBases31

2019 Sapphire Super being auctioned. Guesses on what this goes for? 5k?

https://www.ebay.com/itm/32475439813...cAAOSwhj1g8Diy

11717.17

[Tim]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Agree to disagree on the 50/50 in this specific case, but there is no right or wrong way to invest in a player.

Agreed and that was my point. Two pages ago it seemed like he was moving away from 2018 sealed bowman and headed toward other sealed products. I wanted him to know that buying sealed 2018 bowman to invest in ohtani was sound. If he only has so much money to invest, yes the card is the way to go. But if he has a good opportunity on sealed 2018 bowman, I didn't want him to misunderstand or head toward different sealed product instead. Hope I'm more clear as I'm super tired tonight!

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by Tim

Agreed and that was my point. Two pages ago it seemed like he was moving away from 2018 sealed bowman and headed toward other sealed products. I wanted him to know that buying sealed 2018 bowman to invest in ohtani was sound. If he only has so much money to invest, yes the card is the way to go. But if he has a good opportunity on sealed 2018 bowman, I didn't want him to misunderstand or head toward different sealed product instead. Hope I'm more clear as I'm super tired tonight!

I hear you. It's just such a relatively rare situation where a single player lifts a hobby box to over $1K (in baseball).

[hammertime]

Looks like he's slated to pitch again Wednesday night.

[cardguy14]

Originally Posted by Tim

Agreed and that was my point. Two pages ago it seemed like he was moving away from 2018 sealed bowman and headed toward other sealed products. I wanted him to know that buying sealed 2018 bowman to invest in ohtani was sound. If he only has so much money to invest, yes the card is the way to go. But if he has a good opportunity on sealed 2018 bowman, I didn't want him to misunderstand or head toward different sealed product instead. Hope I'm more clear as I'm super tired tonight!

Thanks for everybody on the advice. Yes, I already have 3 boxes, I want to spend around 3k and trying to figure out if it would be smart to get 3 more jumbos for $1075 each. Thx for all the responses. Means a lot y’all are helping me out.

[raddocpga]

Originally Posted by NYRE2PECT

Nobody cares about what I am about to type, but here it is.

I have written this here before but not to this level of detail. This was a journey with Shohei that I started in back in December. I decided that he was my guy (he still very much is). I never intended to sell this, as I never intended/expected/desired it to be worth what it is, but that value has gone to place that I have had to reckon with.

The answer to the question of if I am tapping out is sort of, because if I don't do something like this it would be poor stewardship of a golden goose for my family.

Here are some of the prices I paid along the way, and the PSA APR is today:

Bowman $25 / $286
Bowman Chrome $51.01 / $1017.78
Bowman's Best $30.31 / $211.57
Finest $25 / $316.42

It is like this for 59 cards.

It has been the equivalent of catching lightning in a bottle.

Now add two /10 Dynasty's for less $900 each that are a PSA 9 & 10 - pop 1's. A pop 3 /25 auto for $950 and two additional POP 1 auto's /99 and unnumbered for less than $500 each.

I have always been in disbelief with people's greed in shows like Deal or No Deal. I had to play real life deal or no deal because my PC increased in value 12x-14x in six months.

..if he was 22 and just getting started, I wouldn't sell.

..if we was 32 and almost to the end of his career, I wouldn't sell.

He's 27, coming off an injury, having a season of all seasons, in a year where the current MLB contract expires.

Pretty much regardless of where it finishes, it will be more money that we will have ever had in the bank - after taxes, after tithing, after vacation savings, and after replenishing the card fund. If the estimate I got from the auction house is right, it could be the equivalent to my annual salary.

So all that said, I am trying to do the right thing and I still have the #1 Basic Set and just today bought 2018 Monty Set #1 PSA 10 and Warm Up Shirt PSA 10 as I look to re-fill my Shohei frame.

I am not planning on going anywhere cause I love this kid!

There you go!

Hey, you gotta do you and always have to do what is best for yours. There is no shame in taking profit and sometimes the weight of that profit makes the decision a no brainer. Mad props on what you accomplished in such a short time and your timing was impeccable. So happy Ohtani was able to piece it together and stay healthy for a full year. There are always exceptions (Beltre and Big Papi come to mind), but I always think of age 27 as the peak year for most MLBers. Hope he can do it for 10 more years, but that is certainly no guarantee...

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by raddocpga

Hey, you gotta do you and always have to do what is best for yours. There is no shame in taking profit and sometimes the weight of that profit makes the decision a no brainer. Mad props on what you accomplished in such a short time and your timing was impeccable. So happy Ohtani was able to piece it together and stay healthy for a full year. There are always exceptions (Beltre and Big Papi come to mind), but I always think of age 27 as the peak year for most MLBers. Hope he can do it for 10 more years, but that is certainly no guarantee...

Thank you and it was sheer luck....but, it just means I will get to buy more cards of his, just different ones .

[BaseballKing]

Originally Posted by speedyjg13

Buy em!

This.

[BaseballKing]

Originally Posted by cardguy14

Maybe I’ll just take it off eBay and hold onto it. The more and more these dry out, the higher they’ll go.

No doubt!

[jswek]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Redemption only (is expired) and extremely rare. All redeemed copies were also beat up. They did have a rainbow foil like shimmer to them though. Rare cards, but very niche.

Correct. The Ohtani Bowman Mega Box Rookie Autos were redemption only. Initially, there was some confusion whether they would be any different from the regular Bowman Pitching Rookie Autos due to the vague wording of the redemption card. However, in hand, they are easily differentiated as the refractor version of the Bowman Pitching Rookie Auto.

There are almost certainly less than 20 out there, with the true total likely even fewer than that. Only four have been graded between BGS and PSA: two BGS 8.5s, two BGS 9s, and none by PSA. There is also at least one still sealed with the redemption sticker from Topps. That’s it.

Here is the highest grade BGS 9 for reference:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/224568352359

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by raddocpga

Hey, you gotta do you and always have to do what is best for yours. There is no shame in taking profit and sometimes the weight of that profit makes the decision a no brainer. Mad props on what you accomplished in such a short time and your timing was impeccable. So happy Ohtani was able to piece it together and stay healthy for a full year. There are always exceptions (Beltre and Big Papi come to mind), but I always think of age 27 as the peak year for most MLBers. Hope he can do it for 10 more years, but that is certainly no guarantee...

Nothing wrong with this being a peak/pinnacle year for Ohtani - it's one of the finest seasons of all time. The main question (if this is the peak) is going to be how steep the slope will be and whether he has the self awareness to pare and tone things down with his age. He is clearly a very intelligent person, so I think it really does come down to health. If his Japanese genetics do what they did for Ichiro and others, he will have many productive years left. Ichiro was a MLB rookie at age 27

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by jswek

Correct. The Ohtani Bowman Mega Box Rookie Autos were redemption only. Initially, there was some confusion whether they would be any different from the regular Bowman Pitching Rookie Autos due to the vague wording of the redemption card. However, in hand, they are easily differentiated as the refractor version of the Bowman Pitching Rookie Auto.

There are almost certainly less than 20 out there, with the true total likely even fewer than that. Only four have been graded between BGS and PSA: two BGS 8.5s, two BGS 9s, and none by PSA. There is also at least one still sealed with the redemption sticker from Topps. That’s it.

Here is the highest grade BGS 9 for reference:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/224568352359

I was never able to convince myself grab one of those cause it was his post-TJS autograph. It lacks the grace of his normal Bowman autos which were pre-TJS. I don't think his hobby autograph will ever get back to early 2018 level, as it has gotten worse every year.

[Trueblue]

Just realized I had his Japanese jersey # for a few cards. Doubt it adds value to anyone but a hardcore Japanese collector, but kinda cooool

[jswek]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

I was never able to convince myself grab one of those cause it was his post-TJS autograph. It lacks the grace of his normal Bowman autos which were pre-TJS. I don't think his hobby autograph will ever get back to early 2018 level, as it has gotten worse every year.

No doubt.

The Bowman Pitching Autos are generally far more intricate than the redemption-only Bowman Chrome Batting Autos.

[HarryLime]

I'm definitely going to be interested to see how the unopened market treats currently-modern product when it becomes vintage.

With vintage, the caveat is always "if it grades a 10 (or 9, or....)." I can't think of a single vintage box that is worth less than what the biggest card in the set is if you get it at average "out of pack" condition.

With modern having such a high percentage of 10s coming straight out of the pack, that may skew things a bit. That is, of course, set dependent.

But unopened has always been worth more than what's inside because of the part of the hobby that collects unopened products as their own piece of hobby material. This is why a 1956 Topps pack is the most valuable Topps pack there is (outside of a unicorn test pack). Heck, 1952 isn't even the second most valuable, as I think that would go to 1958.

Obviously, what's inside a '52 Topps pack likely holds more value than what's inside either a '56 or '58.

The 2018 Bowman set is obviously all about the Ohtani auto right now but it's not a complete waste, otherwise. You have your usual 2018 RCs as well as prospect cards for Acuna and Soto. You've got RC autos for Devers and Buehler as well as 1st BCAs for LouBob and Yordan. I'm not much of a LouBob fan but I think Yordan is a masher. Bowman being Bowman you're always capable of yanking a red/gold/super/etc.

Am I saying everyone should run out and buy 2018 Bowman boxes to sit on as an investment? Obviously not. I'm not doing it myself so that tells you where I stand. But I don't think there's any scenario where you lose money on them, if you hold long enough and sell at the right time.

Arthur

[seanrs1]

Any thoughts on this card below? I assume it is a non-licensed novelty card? Sale can't be legit either correct?

https://www.ebay.com/itm/33411458188...p2047675.l2557