✹The PERENNIAL Shohei Ohtani Thread✹

[GEM Mint Ohtani]

I pulled a purple Topps chrome auto /250 out of a hobby box.


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[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by HarryLime

Definitely got a deal. In example #1,274 of how Ohtani's 2018 market differs from guys like Acuna and Soto: Ohtani's paper base parallels and Chrome color refractors are the height of his flagship image. He has no autos with the #700/#150 image, unlike Acuna, Soto, Torres, Devers, Meadows, Buehler, Flaherty, basically any other rookie from 2018 Topps. They all have auto versions of their Flagship/Chrome image. Ohtani doesn't.



With the 1/1 being sold recently and presumably not going anywhere anytime soon, the best cards of Ohtani's RC image are Sapphire and Orange/Gold refractors. When you think about it that way, they're selling for peanuts.



Arthur

Did you call?

Think it will be a while before the multiples catch up tbh though.

[HarryLime]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Did you call?

Think it will be a while before the multiples catch up tbh though.

Your collection is ridonkulous, Scott. Curious what you mean by multiples catching up?

Arthur

[NYRE2PECT]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Did you call?

Think it will be a while before the multiples catch up tbh though.

Showoff….




…epic as always.


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[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by HarryLime

Your collection is ridonkulous, Scott. Curious what you mean by multiples catching up?



Arthur

Like Bowman chrome, the colors in Topps Chrome generally have some structure of value multipliers by base. For example, base=1x, refractor=2x, purple /299=5x, blue /150= 10x, etc.

If you look at other players like Tatis (maybe not best example due to injury), base is 250 range and the orange is like 12k+. Ohtani's base #150 is 350 range. With the same multiples as Tatis, that would make it a 18k card. I just don't think people appreciate it that much to pay that much yet. This may be due partially to PSA cloggage and inflated base price, but I do expect the high end color to drop gears and take off once a wider range of people gain perspective of how special this season was - and if he does something similar next year.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by NYRE2PECT

Showoff….




…epic as always.


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I will never touch the range of you RPA collection. We each have our own niche!

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Like Bowman chrome, the colors in Topps Chrome generally have some structure of value multipliers by base. For example, base=1x, refractor=2x, purple /299=5x, blue /150= 10x, etc.

If you look at other players like Tatis (maybe not best example due to injury), base is 250 range and the orange is like 12k+. Ohtani's base #150 is 350 range. With the same multiples as Tatis, that would make it a 18k card.

But Tatis has alot fewer high end cards than Ohtani. You really can't compare the Ohtani vs X player as apples to apples. Ohtani has 2 true TC rookies with color refractor parallels, Tatis only 1. You could almost call Ohtani 2.5 because of where the RD is pricing. Same thing the paper parallels with double the supply of Blacks, Indy Days, Clears, Golds, etc. But there's also quirks in the Ohtani market. He has more BC autos than anyone else, not exactly double because of the lack of Refractor and Purple, but his base BC autos are worth over 2x Tatis'. Across the board Ohtani autos are worth significantly more.

Regardless, I think any super high end Ohtani is only going to skyrocket over the next couple years

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by BBases31

But Tatis has alot fewer high end cards than Ohtani. You really can't compare the Ohtani vs X player as apples to apples. Ohtani has 2 true TC rookies with color refractor parallels, Tatis only 1. You could almost call Ohtani 2.5 because of where the RD is pricing. Same thing the paper parallels with double the supply of Blacks, Indy Days, Clears, Golds, etc. But there's also quirks in the Ohtani market. He has more BC autos than anyone else, not exactly double because of the lack of Refractor and Purple, but his base BC autos are worth over 2x Tatis'. Across the board Ohtani autos are worth significantly more.

Regardless, I think any super high end Ohtani is only going to skyrocket over the next couple years

I wouldn't say Ohtani has more. Remember, Vlad/Acuna/Tatis/Soto all have BC FY Autos. The king of BC. Ohtani essentially has 2 RC logo autos, hitting and pitching. That cancels out any of the previously mentioned players that have a FY and RC logo BC Auto (soto obviously doesn't, which makes him even more special; Vlad has an ungoldy amount of prospect BC autos and RC years)

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

I wouldn't say Ohtani has more. Remember, Vlad/Acuna/Tatis/Soto all have BC FY Autos. The king of BC. Ohtani essentially has 2 RC logo autos, hitting and pitching. That cancels out any of the previously mentioned players that have a FY and RC logo BC Auto (soto obviously doesn't, which makes him even more special; Vlad has an ungoldy amount of prospect BC autos and RC years)

Yep forgot about those BC rookie autos of the other guys. Was more thinking of the double Gold Refractors, XFractor, and Red Refractor for the TCU Parallels. Were Ohtani's BC base auto's SP'd at all?

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by BBases31

But Tatis has alot fewer high end cards than Ohtani. You really can't compare the Ohtani vs X player as apples to apples. Ohtani has 2 true TC rookies with color refractor parallels, Tatis only 1. You could almost call Ohtani 2.5 because of where the RD is pricing. Same thing the paper parallels with double the supply of Blacks, Indy Days, Clears, Golds, etc. But there's also quirks in the Ohtani market. He has more BC autos than anyone else, not exactly double because of the lack of Refractor and Purple, but his base BC autos are worth over 2x Tatis'. Across the board Ohtani autos are worth significantly more.

Regardless, I think any super high end Ohtani is only going to skyrocket over the next couple years

I guess I am just a snob and only consider traditional high pedigree cards in the equation (Bowman, Topps Chrome, Heritage). Tatis more or less has the same cards from those sets with the exception of update. It's crazy isn't it? The Big-3 from preseason have all had exposed weaknesses, and the overrated Asian guy has taken over. Nuts.

Regardless, I think we both agree the top cards are due for a positive correction in the future. That bodes well for many people on this board!

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by BBases31

But Tatis has alot fewer high end cards than Ohtani. You really can't compare the Ohtani vs X player as apples to apples. Ohtani has 2 true TC rookies with color refractor parallels, Tatis only 1. You could almost call Ohtani 2.5 because of where the RD is pricing. Same thing the paper parallels with double the supply of Blacks, Indy Days, Clears, Golds, etc. But there's also quirks in the Ohtani market. He has more BC autos than anyone else, not exactly double because of the lack of Refractor and Purple, but his base BC autos are worth over 2x Tatis'. Across the board Ohtani autos are worth significantly more.

Regardless, I think any super high end Ohtani is only going to skyrocket over the next couple years

By release, he may have more autos. But they were very tough pulls. Would not be surprised if the total # of Tatis 1st Bowman Base autos exceeded all of Ohtani's chrome autos. Tatis probably got paid $15/auto to sign as a scrawny teenager, versus Ohtani's huge contract.

Ohtani also does not have a BC refractor auto /499 and color starts at blue.

[HarryLime]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Like Bowman chrome, the colors in Topps Chrome generally have some structure of value multipliers by base. For example, base=1x, refractor=2x, purple /299=5x, blue /150= 10x, etc.

If you look at other players like Tatis (maybe not best example due to injury), base is 250 range and the orange is like 12k+. Ohtani's base #150 is 350 range. With the same multiples as Tatis, that would make it a 18k card. I just don't think people appreciate it that much to pay that much yet. This may be due partially to PSA cloggage and inflated base price, but I do expect the high end color to drop gears and take off once a wider range of people gain perspective of how special this season was - and if he does something similar next year.

Those players had the opportunity to have their cards submitted as their popularity grew and grew and eventually became a frenzy. Ohtani got stuck in a time capsule and hasn't had a chance to have his cards subbed like Tatis, Acuna, Soto, and Guerrero. Just look at their base Topps Chrome RC total base submissions:

Ohtani: 3,000 (for context, Devers is 2,400 and Torres is 3,800)
Acuna: 9,200
Soto: 11,300
Tatis: 12,000
Guerrero: 6,000

I would imagine the colors are roughly the same across the board. For a lot of those colors, they're not getting submitted for a while and won't be getting back to collectors for even longer. The orange and golds will get submitted but, at this moment, it seems like it could be a toss up between TPGers.

I think those low, frozen pop numbers for Ohtani are going to be like a pressure cooker on his market. There simply won't be enough PSA 10s to go around for the rarer stuff.

Hell, even his base cards. Think about it: if those are his total submission numbers above (obviously his 10 pop count is lower) and PSA is going to tighten the belt on modern flaws we didn't used to get penalized on, even his base cards are probably a nice play since they obviously won't ever get Robert Kraft treatment the way those other cards did.

Arthur

ETA: A Gold PSA 10 sold for $9k a few days ago. Half the count, twice the price?

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

Regardless, I think we both agree the top cards are due for a positive correction in the future. That bodes well for many people on this board!

Yes and I will be plowing in heavily once the offseason comes and we hit peak lockout fear

Originally Posted by Trueblue

By release, he may have more autos. But they were very tough pulls. Would not be surprised if the total # of Tatis 1st Bowman Base autos exceeded all of Ohtani's chrome autos. Tatis probably got paid $15/auto to sign as a scrawny teenager, versus Ohtani's huge contract.

The price action probably does prove that the Ohtani base BC autos were SP'd

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by BBases31

Yes and I will be plowing in heavily once the offseason comes and we hit peak lockout fear

You give this hobby too much credit for minimizing/mitigating risk. It's a YOLO culture

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

You give this hobby too much credit for minimizing/mitigating risk. It's a YOLO culture

Lol. The panic selling that will come ≠ risk mitigation. Just pure, emotionally driven panic. Like the reaction to a nice 0 for 30 slump.

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by BBases31

Lol. The panic selling that will come ≠ risk mitigation. Just pure, emotionally driven panic. Like the reaction to a nice 0 for 30 slump.

I think this may hold truer for Tatis/Acuna, but the high end Ohtani market is supported by stronger hands. Goes back to your comment about raw Ohtani BC autos never dropping below $400 despite being hurt. Time will tell.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

I think this may hold truer for Tatis/Acuna, but the high end Ohtani market is supported by stronger hands. Goes back to your comment about raw Ohtani BC autos never dropping below $400 despite being hurt. Time will tell.

I'm very curious if the offseason selling actually hits Ohtani stronger than the others. Still holding on to my theory that he still doesn't have anywhere close to the uptake of traditional baseball collectors that Acuna/Tatis/Guerrero have and that collectors holding any of that basket with Ohtani will sell Ohtani first if there's a lockout panic. "One year wonder" plus still irrationally being seen as the riskiest of the bunch plus locking in absurd gains if they bought anywhere before the all-star break

On the flip side, with the big contingent of Asian buying maybe they are less prone to knee jerk reactions?

But with the price history, as you said, the floor for Ohtani's BC Autos should be very strong even in the face of a falling market.

Alot of factors tugging on each side, it will be interesting to see where the market heads when the media convinces everyone that a lockout is likely. I don't think of any of this really matters beyond the short term price window, I just see it as a buying opportunity as opposed to rushing to sell anything at all.

[NYRE2PECT]

Sho-Tani!






Because sometimes you just need a single and double to get you going.


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[moosetequila]

Originally Posted by NYRE2PECT

Sho-Tani!






Because sometimes you just need a single and double to get you going.


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N I C E !!
I dreamed Sho cranked 2 yard in today's games, two games its possible, I will settle for one HR

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[hammertime]

Originally Posted by NYRE2PECT

Sho-Tani!






Because sometimes you just need a single and double to get you going.


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Beautiful! Man that team set is a tough get in a 10...love that card.

[BBases31]

Ohtani just gets intentionally walked with a man on 3rd and two outs, steals 2nd without even a throw, and then scores on a single.

[al3xmac10]

SB #16!
*small wins until Shohei gets his groove back...

[al3xmac10]

Originally Posted by GEM Mint Ohtani

I pulled a purple Topps chrome auto /250 out of a hobby box.


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Congratulations!
Please share pics if possible

[Trueblue]

How did he get a triple from that? Jeez. #5

[okumeister]

Whenever Ohtani gets a triple, I start to get my hopes up for a cycle lol
Especially tough with a 7 inning game through.