Topps Project 2020 is the worst product since 1991 Fleer

[1000 Sport Zonk]

When does Star Wars Project 2020 start?

[JRX]

Originally Posted by eldustino

I think a major issue with people today, is they like to apply percentages to outcomes.... when each of our individual outcomes is binary (i.e. we either get a gold, or get no gold). So, even if you are 99% likely to get a gold, you will still either get one or not get one.

5% of covid tests are one way or another, but you are either yes or no. Trout's on base percentage is .398 this year, but he either gets on base in his first plate appearance this coming Friday at Coors Field or he doesn't.

It's a problem with being a human, not a problem specific to this thread, we use percentages to make sense of the things around us, but then our outcome is one thing or another, 100%/0% at the end.

The odds are 1/pop + 1/pop +1/pop and so on for each card you buy, but in the end you will either have one (or 2 - congrats UGLI!) or you won't.

The odds of getting gold is (number of purchases)/pop, but lets say 1/pop, the prob of not getting the gold is 1- (1/pop). The prob of no golds over the whole project is the product of all of those.

[Shinjoy]

Originally Posted by eldustino

I think a major issue with people today, is they like to apply percentages to outcomes.... when each of our individual outcomes is binary (i.e. we either get a gold, or get no gold). So, even if you are 99% likely to get a gold, you will still either get one or not get one.

5% of covid tests are one way or another, but you are either yes or no. Trout's on base percentage is .398 this year, but he either gets on base in his first plate appearance this coming Friday at Coors Field or he doesn't.

It's a problem with being a human, not a problem specific to this thread, we use percentages to make sense of the things around us, but then our outcome is one thing or another, 100%/0% at the end.

The odds are 1/pop + 1/pop +1/pop and so on for each card you buy, but in the end you will either have one (or 2 - congrats UGLI!) or you won't.

You multiply the probabilities of each outcome for AND statements about independent events, not add.

To me, seeing people abuse probability for fun is like Oliroller freaking out when he sees people abuse Oldmanalan for giggles. HE'S A SERIOUS ARTIST!!!

(You'd add for an OR statement about events that don't overlap, but that can get more complicated)

[Silas Barnaby]

Originally Posted by Bleu Falcon

I think the way to do it would be to calculate the probability of NOT getting gold for each individual card [1 - (x/PR)] where x = the number of cards you ordered. Then multiply all of those probabilities in series.

Simplified example: if the PR of every card was 1,000 and you bought a ten pack of each, you would have about a 9.6% chance of pulling gold each week.

As a math teacher, this post makes me happy.

[eldustino]

Originally Posted by Shinjoy

You multiply the probabilities of each outcome for AND statements about independent events, not add.

To me, seeing people abuse probability for fun is like Oliroller freaking out when he sees people abuse Oldmanalan for giggles. HE'S A SERIOUS ARTIST!!!

(You'd add for an OR statement about events that don't overlap, but that can get more complicated)

I figured my answer was pretty incorrect, but approximately correct.

I need to research myself, but why is the probability of getting one gold from one card purchase not 1/pop? And why if I purchase 2 from same card, not 2/pop? and if I buy 2 different cards, why isn't my probability 1/popA + 1/popB?

I buy card a with a print run of 100, my odds are 1%
If I buy 2 of the same cards with a print run of 100, isn't my odds 2%
and If I do the first thing and the second thing..... ah now I get it, I did not make my odds 3%. thanks for looking over my shoulder as I did the thing

You are better at math but my point holds up!

[AirplaneDon]

Thank you to those correcting the errors when calculating simple probabilities. I have to just walk away so I don’t scream at my phone when I see some of those posts.

I prefer to spend my time pushing subjective statements as absolute facts when on this forum.

[eldavojohn]

Originally Posted by eldustino

I figured my answer was pretty incorrect, but approximately correct.

I need to research myself, but why is the probability of getting one gold from one card purchase not 1/pop? And why if I purchase 2 from same card, not 2/pop? and if I buy 2 different cards, why isn't my probability 1/popA + 1/popB?

I buy card a with a print run of 100, my odds are 1%
If I buy 2 of the same cards with a print run of 100, isn't my odds 2%
and If I do the first thing and the second thing..... ah now I get it, I did not make my odds 3%. thanks for looking over my shoulder as I did the thing

You are better at math but my point holds up!

Probabilities across different events are rarely additive. Let's assume there's two events that are drawings for unrelated lottery drawings in two different states. You buy enough tickets in both events to have 75% of winning in each event. 75% + 75% = 150% chance of winning. If they were additive, it would be impossible to lose both events -- in fact you might reason you have 100% chance of winning one event and a coin flip of winning the other. This is not how probability works as there's clearly a 25% chance you do not win in each lottery -- meaning that 1/4*1/4 or 1/16 chance of winning nothing.

[ThoseBackPages]

maths

[cavsfan70]

alright who's ready to do some geometry problems next

[AirplaneDon]

Originally Posted by cavsfan70

alright who's ready to do some geometry problems next

Hit me up when you move on to Laplace transforms.

[eldustino]

Originally Posted by eldavojohn

Probabilities across different events are rarely additive. Let's assume there's two events that are drawings for unrelated lottery drawings in two different states. You buy enough tickets in both events to have 75% of winning in each event. 75% + 75% = 150% chance of winning. If they were additive, it would be impossible to lose both events -- in fact you might reason you have 100% chance of winning one event and a coin flip of winning the other. This is not how probability works as there's clearly a 25% chance you do not win in each lottery -- meaning that 1/4*1/4 or 1/16 chance of winning nothing.

I concede that my adding was completely wrong. But, I maintain I was closer to correct than concluding a 10-pack gets you a 9.6% chance on a 1,000 PR! No offense!

And APD the crazy dreams continue but last night I was hanging with James Doohan when Deforest Kelley showed up at the party and recognized me for some reason from something we had done together in the past. Then I pointed out Doohan and they went crazy. Some former pro cyclists were also there, it was a strange event.

[Bleu Falcon]

Originally Posted by eldustino

I concede that my adding was completely wrong. But, I maintain I was closer to correct than concluding a 10-pack gets you a 9.6% chance on a 1,000 PR! No offense!

Why would you being wrong offend me?

You misstated my conclusion, by the way.

[Shinjoy]

Originally Posted by eldustino

You are better at math but my point holds up!

No, you're right about that there being a very subtle difference. I've taught probability to college students: it is not easy to teach and not something that I could do full-time. Much love to the math teachers of the world, and to JK5 for dropping the maths in today's card.

[Bleu Falcon]

A ten pack gives you a 1% chance of pulling gold on a 1,000 PR.

[Silas Barnaby]

Originally Posted by cavsfan70

alright who's ready to do some geometry problems next

Anyone know the square root of 69?

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by Silas Barnaby

Anyone know the square root of 69?

[Silas Barnaby]

Originally Posted by Silas Barnaby

Anyone know the square root of 69?

Ate something!

[1977 Cloth]

Originally Posted by UGLI baby

How are you calculating that, out of curiosity? I was trying to calculate how lucky I got to get two, but then wasn’t sure the right way to calculate!

Not as simple as amount purchased / PR because one Jeter OMA purchase gives you a better chance than a Shore Griffey purchase. So then would you add up all your percentage chances for each individual order? That doesn’t really seem accurate either!!

MATHS!!

I did what you alluded to in the individual order % and added them. If the card had a PR of 2000 and I bought 20 I had a 1% chance at that one. I added up all those % and came to a number over 30. Not perfect, as 1% of 100 different cards doesn't mean I have a 100% chance of hitting a gold. That is why I said simple math. All I know is that unless you are buying like 20-50 of every card that your two gold pulls is extremely lucky.

I also wonder on the gold pulls if it is random to an order or random to a card. My thought is, are you more likely to hit a gold with purchase of a 10 pack or 9 individual purchases of 1 at a time?

[williemayshayes]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[goblue6919]

Nice to see Naturel Mo's already at $70+

If anyone wants to trade a Chang or a Vides for one once they come in please hit me up

In my P2020 excel to keep track of this madness, I have a PR co-efficient column that measures how many I own per 10k printed - this is my highest yet

[eldustino]

Originally Posted by Bleu Falcon

Why would you being wrong offend me?

You misstated my conclusion, by the way.

Ha ha I formed a philosophical stance long ago that if you say "no offense" you can get away with saying anything. It's a jokey stance but one I still sometimes lean on.

I am sure I misread the post, sir!

I knew my maths were wrong, but it's true that outcomes are binary, that was my actual point of writing out what I wrote out. And I actually do like math, I'm just not great at it when it's not currency (i'm an accountant by day).

[kabrune2]

I use the 50/50 logic at the poker table all the time and tell anyone who will listen my odds of winning a hand is 50/50, either I win or I don’t. I play a little loose for 30-60 minutes then tighten up and usually win each session, but it’s really just 50/50 I win or not

[Silas Barnaby]

Originally Posted by kabrune2

I use the 50/50 logic at the poker table all the time and tell anyone who will listen my odds of winning a hand is 50/50, either I win or I don’t. I play a little loose for 30-60 minutes then tighten up and usually win each session, but it’s really just 50/50 I win or not

There also only two different kinds of bears.

Alive and dead.

[Bleu Falcon]

Originally Posted by eldustino

(i'm an accountant by day).

Your maths account is overdrawn, sir!

[ObanMontecristo]

2 + 3 = jk5