Official 2025-26 NBA Offseason Thread

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Suns win the toxic hoarder reconstruction award and it's not even August.

Looks like they're headed in the right direction navigating away from brand name addiction and establishing a defensive mantra.

Disagree that this is the right direction, Ninja. I just don’t understand why teams are stretching players with 2 years left on their contracts rather than waiting and buying out the final year. I would much rather have 2 underwhelming years than 5 underwhelming years.

These teams could have a clean cap by the 27-28 season but instead they’ve committed 13% of the salary cap to dead money that they can’t trade or do anything to get off. Sure that % will decrease as the years go on, but Suns aren’t winning anything this season or next anyway. By the time this deal fully comes off the books, Booker is 34 making 70+ million? What are we doing?

[Chryghst]

They’re paying Beal $20 million for the next 5 seasons. Here are some of the players getting ~$20 million this season:

22m - Aaron Gordon
21m - Cameron Johnson
20m - Jarrett Allen
19m - Josh Hart
18m - Alex Caruso
18m - Ivica Zubac
18m - Andrew Nembhard
14m - Austin Reaves
13m - Victor Wembanyama

Suns are paying Bradley Beal more to not play for them every season for the next 5 than any of those teams are paying for legitimately good basketball players this year. Absolutely insane and disqualifies the Suns from getting anywhere close to a WCF.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Chryghst

Disagree that this is the right direction, Ninja. I just don’t understand why teams are stretching players with 2 years left on their contracts rather than waiting and buying out the final year. I would much rather have 2 underwhelming years than 5 underwhelming years.

These teams could have a clean cap by the 27-28 season but instead they’ve committed 13% of the salary cap to dead money that they can’t trade or do anything to get off. Sure that % will decrease as the years go on, but Suns aren’t winning anything this season or next anyway. By the time this deal fully comes off the books, Booker is 34 making 70+ million? What are we doing?

Because those divas are dragging down team morale and slowing their ability to begin the next phase.

I equivocate this to toxic marriages. Sure you can tough it out for the kids, but the damage incurred those years could be more detrimental to the their development going forward simply for the sake of keeping the illusion alive.

Let these rc's earn their chops. Could be sitting on a few diamonds low key.

Sometimes its best to sever ties and begin anew. This essentially parks them back to where they were at the turn of previous decade. Growth through destruction.

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Because those divas are dragging down team morale and slowing their ability to begin the next phase.

I equivocate this to toxic marriages. Sure you can tough it out for the kids, but the damage incurred those years could be more detrimental to the their development going forward simply for the sake of keeping the illusion alive.

Let these rc's earn their chops. Could be sitting on a few diamonds low key.

Sometimes its best to sever ties and begin anew. This essentially parks them back to where they were at the turn of previous decade. Growth through destruction.

Just creates another potential ally for James Dolan against league expansion in the next 5 seasons. Suns now need the salary cap to increase substantially every year to inflate away their % of dead cap. Already a question mark with local tv networks dragging down the 10% growth; cutting 2 more checks from the new national media rights deal puts additional downward pressure on salary cap growth y/y which increases the relative % of Suns’ dead money for 28-29 and 29-30 seasons.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Chryghst

Just creates another potential ally for James Dolan against league expansion in the next 5 seasons. Suns now need the salary cap to increase substantially every year to inflate away their % of dead cap. Already a question mark with local tv networks dragging down the 10% growth; cutting 2 more checks from the new national media rights deal puts additional downward pressure on salary cap growth y/y which increases the relative % of Suns’ dead money for 28-29 and 29-30 seasons.

I salute them for being realists. They had zero championship aspirations with that core. Heck, they weren't even competing for a 2nd round appearance. Like legitimately one of the worst defensive teams in the league.

Growth through pain. The next few years are obviously going to be rough, but they'll be able to acquire more picks once they get under the 2nd apron and dish either JG/Book and or both. Stretch rule definitely helped soften the blow.

Beal isn't a good player at this point and he's aired his frustrations at his lack of PT despite the fact he's almost always injured. At least JG offers availability and a fan-friendly brand of above the rim hoops, which is as much as you can ask for when you're not really competing for anything.

[JustinVerlander07]

Dame back to Portland 3/42. Wow

[JustinVerlander07]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

I salute them for being realists. They had zero championship aspirations with that core. Heck, they weren't even competing for a 2nd round appearance. Like legitimately one of the worst defensive teams in the league.

Growth through pain. The next few years are obviously going to be rough, but they'll be able to acquire more picks once they get under the 2nd apron and dish either JG/Book and or both. Stretch rule definitely helped soften the blow.

Beal isn't a good player at this point and he's aired his frustrations at his lack of PT despite the fact he's almost always injured. At least JG offers availability and a fan-friendly brand of above the rim hoops, which is as much as you can ask for when you're not really competing for anything.

Ninja, bad players don't shoot 50% from the field and 39% from 3 in the past season. Rare take I totally disagree with you on.

[yiguiri2002]

I have no idea why Portland signed Lillard.

If he somehow comes back at 80% of what he has? He's opting out and the Blazers end up paying 28M for one season of above average starter level.

If he never gets closed to the same? He opts in and the Blazers pay 20M+ per season for an average/below average player.

Where's the upside? Are they gonna sell enough tickets to make it worth it?

[asujbl]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I have no idea why Portland signed Lillard.

If he somehow comes back at 80% of what he has? He's opting out and the Blazers end up paying 28M for one season of above average starter level.

If he never gets closed to the same? He opts in and the Blazers pay 20M+ per season for an average/below average player.

Where's the upside? Are they gonna sell enough tickets to make it worth it?

You answered your own question

[Scottish Punk]

Originally Posted by asujbl

You answered your own question

Yep, he will be plastered on all the media. Full media blitz for "farewell tour" , "coming home". Not mad at it, he is a Blazers icon.

[Nomad]

Probably. They feel real lucky to have him at that price.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by asujbl

You answered your own question

I had to convince myself that maybe there's that much money to be made for someone who probably won't play for another year or so. Even if he's the greatest player in team history.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by JustinVerlander07

Ninja, bad players don't shoot 50% from the field and 39% from 3 in the past season. Rare take I totally disagree with you on.

I should have qualified. Not a good player as a starter relegated to a shooter-only role like he was in Phoenix. He and Book were never a good match because they are essentially the same player, but Book is the superior talent. Problem is, Beal didn't want to take a bench role which means Phoenix keeping him would be counterproductive if they wanted to begin the rebuild process...especially since they acquired JG with Grayson being their ball stopper.

I think he could be a better fit on the Clips as a Powell replacement and the price is right. But his availability will always be the biggest question mark.

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

I should have qualified. Not a good player as a starter relegated to a shooter-only role like he was in Phoenix. He and Book were never a good match because they are essentially the same player, but Book is the superior talent. Problem is, Beal didn't want to take a bench role which means Phoenix keeping him would be counterproductive if they wanted to begin the rebuild process...especially since they acquired JG with Grayson being their ball stopper.

I think he could be a better fit on the Clips as a Powell replacement and the price is right. But his availability will always be the biggest question mark.

I think Beal got scapegoated for a lot of Phoenix’s shortcomings, but his 121 defensive rating certainly didn’t help.

Booker had the 4th worst DBPM in the league last year, behind Trae Young, CJ McCollum, and Keyonte George. Just ahead of Collin Sexton. I like Booker, but that contract is going to look so, so bad in a few years.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Chryghst

I think Beal got scapegoated for a lot of Phoenix’s shortcomings, but his 121 defensive rating certainly didn’t help.

Booker had the 4th worst DBPM in the league last year, behind Trae Young, CJ McCollum, and Keyonte George. Just ahead of Collin Sexton. I like Booker, but that contract is going to look so, so bad in a few years.

Beal's real +/- was wild. I didn't want to cite it and be that dude, because; you know....ppg and field goal percentages.


Agreed Book is not the guy. Feels like this is a legacy deal since he's both the first and last of the Mohicans which is quickly becoming a leaguewide rarity. And the hometown fans seem to love him to a fault. Unfortunately he's so ball dominant that's it's always going to be tough building a championship roster around him without vastly shifting roles.

Seeing him and Green construct homeless shelters next year should be fun.

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Beal's real +/- was wild. I didn't want to cite it and be that dude, because; you know....ppg and field goal percentages.


Agreed Book is not the guy. Feels like this is a legacy deal since he's both the first and last of the Mohicans which is quickly becoming a leaguewide rarity. And the hometown fans seem to love him to a fault. Unfortunately he's so ball dominant that's it's always going to be tough building a championship roster around him without vastly shifting roles.

Seeing him and Green construct homeless shelters next year should be fun.

I mean I’m not even a local hometown fan and I love Booker. He seems like a great guy and he’s an awesome offensive player. But KD hasn’t been a 2-way player since the achilles. That Suns team had 3 players who needed 4 defenders on the court with them…it might have worked if the refs let them play 7v5.

Booker worked best with CP3, Mikal, Cam Johnson, Crowder and Ayton covering for his defensive deficiencies at a time (2021) that the gap between offense and defense wasn’t as big as it is now, so the vulnerability of a weak defender wasn’t as great as it is now. The better offenses get, the further poor defenders will be left behind. That contract they gave him is for an era of basketball we’ve left behind.

It *might* work with KD in Houston (with FVV, Amen, and Tari to cover for him) but I’m just not convinced. Their defense is significantly worse than OKC’s, and their offense is significantly worse than Denver’s. With advantageous matchups maybe they get to the WCF, but I think a 2nd round exit is more likely. No shame at all in being a top-8 team in the NBA though.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Chryghst

I mean I’m not even a local hometown fan and I love Booker. He seems like a great guy and he’s an awesome offensive player. But KD hasn’t been a 2-way player since the achilles. That Suns team had 3 players who needed 4 defenders on the court with them…it might have worked if the refs let them play 7v5.

Booker worked best with CP3, Mikal, Cam Johnson, Crowder and Ayton covering for his defensive deficiencies at a time (2021) that the gap between offense and defense wasn’t as big as it is now, so the vulnerability of a weak defender wasn’t as great as it is now. The better offenses get, the further poor defenders will be left behind. That contract they gave him is for an era of basketball we’ve left behind.

It *might* work with KD in Houston (with FVV, Amen, and Tari to cover for him) but I’m just not convinced. Their defense is significantly worse than OKC’s, and their offense is significantly worse than Denver’s. With advantageous matchups maybe they get to the WCF, but I think a 2nd round exit is more likely. No shame at all in being a top-8 team in the NBA though.

Yeah, Book's in that same mold as most of these offense-only guards that needs a protection point in the backcourt to mask their blatant lack of try. They are absolutely cooked with their current depth chart. Unless they somehow have faith that Gillespie can morph into a TJ/Jrue hybrid with the aid of Tren and prayer.

I'm not convinced about KD putting them over the top either. I think his 3 point shooting can only help where they're lacking the most, but we still don't know how efficient Eason can be on volume and Amen's offensive ceiling is still up in the air.

It essentially boils down to the fact Denver (at times) and OKC will always have the 2 best starters on the floor with the depth and defensive tenacity to match...with added experience. KD's going to have to dig back into his '13-14 bag.

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Yeah, Book's in that same mold as most of these offense-only guards that needs a protection point in the backcourt to mask their blatant lack of try. They are absolutely cooked with their current depth chart. Unless they somehow have faith that Gillespie can morph into a TJ/Jrue hybrid with the aid of Tren and prayer.

I'm not convinced about KD putting them over the top either. I think his 3 point shooting can only help where they're lacking the most, but we still don't know how efficient Eason can be on volume and Amen's offensive ceiling is still up in the air.

It essentially boils down to the fact Denver (at times) and OKC will always have the 2 best starters on the floor with the depth and defensive tenacity to match...with added experience. KD's going to have to dig back into his '13-14 bag.

I think the league is just too good now—you can’t even just have a backcourt cover. Everyone else on the floor has to be an amazing defender and the 5th has to be a neutral. The Knicks have 3 awesome defenders in OG/Mikal/Hart, and Mitchell Robinson is great as well. Yet the Pacers picked Brunson/KAT apart, and dismantled the Robinson/KAT double big lineup in transition. The numbers looked slightly better because of Robinson’s offensive rebounding.

Hawks will be the litmus test for whether a team can succeed with 4 great defenders and 1 bad one; it might truly be the case that you can’t have a negative defender on the court anymore.

I also think the reverse is true. As defenses improve, offensive liabilities stick out more too. I love Amen and Tari, but we’ve seen these non-shooters hold their teams back. FVV and Sengun are also below average for positional efficiency. I just think NBA team construction is no longer as simple as take 2 great offensive players, 2 great defensive players, and a swing man and throw them on the court together for their aggregate strengths. You really do need 5 guys who can all pass, dribble, shoot, and defend. Maybe not for the regular season, but certainly for the playoffs.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Chryghst

I think the league is just too good now—you can’t even just have a backcourt cover. Everyone else on the floor has to be an amazing defender and the 5th has to be a neutral. The Knicks have 3 awesome defenders in OG/Mikal/Hart, and Mitchell Robinson is great as well. Yet the Pacers picked Brunson/KAT apart, and dismantled the Robinson/KAT double big lineup in transition. The numbers looked slightly better because of Robinson’s offensive rebounding.

Hawks will be the litmus test for whether a team can succeed with 4 great defenders and 1 bad one; it might truly be the case that you can’t have a negative defender on the court anymore.

I also think the reverse is true. As defenses improve, offensive liabilities stick out more too. I love Amen and Tari, but we’ve seen these non-shooters hold their teams back. FVV and Sengun are also below average for positional efficiency. I just think NBA team construction is no longer as simple as take 2 great offensive players, 2 great defensive players, and a swing man and throw them on the court together for their aggregate strengths. You really do need 5 guys who can all pass, dribble, shoot, and defend. Maybe not for the regular season, but certainly for the playoffs.

If the goal is truly championship or bust, then all you stated in the final paragraph holds true. Because OKC and Boston (when healthy) really have no defensive holes 1-5. And you need that when your offense sputters and hits a rough patch or you get ran out by the beauty of NBA trey ball analytics where double digit leads evaporate in the blink of an eye.


I'm as bullish on the Hawnks as you are, but I'm just not seeing them being anywhere close right now. As much as it pains me to say it, I think Vegas is pretty spot on with their 2026 EC futures market projections, though I would swap Detroit with Orlando as the flagrant disrespect will not be tolerated.

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

If the goal is truly championship or bust, then all you stated in the final paragraph holds true. Because OKC and Boston (when healthy) really have no defensive holes 1-5. And you need that when your offense sputters and hits a rough patch or you get ran out by the beauty of NBA trey ball analytics where double digit leads evaporate in the blink of an eye.


I'm as bullish on the Hawnks as you are, but I'm just not seeing them being anywhere close right now. As much as it pains me to say it, I think Vegas is pretty spot on with their 2026 EC futures market projections, though I would swap Detroit with Orlando as the flagrant disrespect will not be tolerated.

Yes, 3>2 but 2>0. 40% efficiency from 3 requires 60% efficiency from 2 to match, *provided* total possessions are equal. In 2024-25, OKC’s defensive turnover rate was 19.7%, meaning almost 20% of opposing possessions did not end in a shot. 40% efficiency from 3 on .8 possessions requires only 48% efficiency from 2 to match. That’s the formula Presti worked out. Rather than join the 3-point shooting arms race, he cut off their total # of possessions. Genius.

I don’t think Orlando can shoot. I think Detroit’s TO rate is too high. I think Cavs backcourt is too small and their point of attack defense relies on Lonzo’s knees. I think a Brunson/McBride/Clarkson guard rotation is a bit of a disaster defensively. I don’t love Luke Kennard or Asa Newell in a playoff series, and Trae’s defense is still rough, even if a bit better. They all have flaws, but I feel like NYK and ATL have the most workable flaws. Cleveland could also balance their roster and become the favorite.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Chryghst

Yes, 3>2 but 2>0. 40% efficiency from 3 requires 60% efficiency from 2 to match, *provided* total possessions are equal. In 2024-25, OKC’s defensive turnover rate was 19.7%, meaning almost 20% of opposing possessions did not end in a shot. 40% efficiency from 3 on .8 possessions requires only 48% efficiency from 2 to match. That’s the formula Presti worked out. Rather than join the 3-point shooting arms race, he cut off their total # of possessions. Genius.

Having a roster capable of carrying out such a gameplan is an amazing luxury. And I think that's why they ponied up for Chet despite his glaring deficiencies and injury history. His rim protection and switchoff ability to guard pretty much anyone outside of Yoker effectively makes his skillset irreplaceable in the current and medium term free agency market.

SGA/Jdub/Chetneck/BaldMamba all locked. They can fill the complimentary pieces with draft capital and/or swaps when the need arises.

I think every eastern conference squad has its flaws. It's pretty wide open. Orlando has no chance as they sit...they're the worst shooting team in the league and try to emulate what OKC does by grinding out TOP and minimizing possessions. But that only works if you can also score, which they can't.

I like Detroit. I know a lot of people don't, but they're getting Ivey back and acquired Duncan. But they're kind of in that same hole Houston was last year. For as good as they can be defensively, they're a bad perimeter shooting team. They're tough, though.

Wouldn't surprise me to see New York take the east. They have the required pieces, it's just a matter of them gaining the mental edge when it matters. KAT's entering that now or never inflection point of his career where he may never fully be able to shake the choker label.

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Having a roster capable of carrying out such a gameplan is an amazing luxury. And I think that's why they ponied up for Chet despite his glaring deficiencies and injury history. His rim protection and switchoff ability to guard pretty much anyone outside of Yoker effectively makes his skillset irreplaceable in the current and medium term free agency market.

SGA/Jdub/Chetneck/BaldMamba all locked. They can fill the complimentary pieces with draft capital and/or swaps when the need arises.

I think every eastern conference squad has its flaws. It's pretty wide open. Orlando has no chance as they sit...they're the worst shooting team in the league and try to emulate what OKC does by grinding out TOP and minimizing possessions. But that only works if you can also score, which they can't.

I like Detroit. I know a lot of people don't, but they're getting Ivey back and acquired Duncan. But they're kind of in that same hole Houston was last year. For as good as they can be defensively, they're a bad perimeter shooting team. They're tough, though.

Wouldn't surprise me to see New York take the east. They have the required pieces, it's just a matter of them gaining the mental edge when it matters. KAT's entering that now or never inflection point of his career where he may never fully be able to shake the choker label.

I think their micro-ball lineup with Jdub at center generated the highest turnover rate, but they obviously can’t get away with that for 48 minutes. Maybe I’ve been too harsh on Chet, especially with the hip injury. Let’s see next season. I still think the squeeze will be too tight when all three deals kick in, but that’s a couple years away.

Agreed on everything you said re: Orlando. Shai is lower-end center efficiency at a guard spot (so very positive); Paolo is lower-end guard efficiency at a wing spot. The defensive identity compensates for low 3-point volume, but not poor 2-point efficiency.

Also agree on the Detroit/Houston comp, but FVV is one of the lowest TO guards in the game—1.5 per game last year. Cade had 4.4 and Ivey had 3.0. That’s 7.4 TOs from just your starting backcourt. You have to shoot so efficiently to overcome that…

NYK have the most valuable thing in the game—2-way wings, and they have an abundance of them. Honestly put a single one of them on the Cavs and they become my favorite. I’m just a little worried that opposing teams will always have a guard or guards to target defensively. But we’ll know a lot more by mid-November.

[drobfan8]

What the hell is this league gonna do when LeBron and his drama finally leave?

He's the perfect villain/anti villain.

Now we're talking about trades?? Lol. How embarrassing.

It would be smart for the Lakers to get a trade done and get something back for the drama queen.


Loving what I'm seeing from Dylan Harper. Man, the Spurs could be all the way back!

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Chryghst

I think their micro-ball lineup with Jdub at center generated the highest turnover rate, but they obviously can’t get away with that for 48 minutes. Maybe I’ve been too harsh on Chet, especially with the hip injury. Let’s see next season. I still think the squeeze will be too tight when all three deals kick in, but that’s a couple years away.

Agreed on everything you said re: Orlando. Shai is lower-end center efficiency at a guard spot (so very positive); Paolo is lower-end guard efficiency at a wing spot. The defensive identity compensates for low 3-point volume, but not poor 2-point efficiency.

Also agree on the Detroit/Houston comp, but FVV is one of the lowest TO guards in the game—1.5 per game last year. Cade had 4.4 and Ivey had 3.0. That’s 7.4 TOs from just your starting backcourt. You have to shoot so efficiently to overcome that…

NYK have the most valuable thing in the game—2-way wings, and they have an abundance of them. Honestly put a single one of them on the Cavs and they become my favorite. I’m just a little worried that opposing teams will always have a guard or guards to target defensively. But we’ll know a lot more by mid-November.

Blew my mind with the dominican Cwebb/SGA reverse correlation. Brilliant.

FVV is terribad in the regular season but seems to turn it up when it matters most. He's also well above average defensively especially when you factor in his size. I think it's a difficult comp to make when it comes to TO's since Cade's more in the bootlegged Luka role where he manages every aspect of their offense especially with Ivey sidelined. But turnovers are definitely a huge point of concern for them especially if they want to continue leveling up the playoff ladder. This will (hopefully) be the first year where Ivey gets to play alongside Cade after his breakout, so the chemistry could go one of two ways depending on how Bick decides to delegate roles. Problem with Jaden is he's kind of a tweener and with the possible emergence of Ausar as a do-a -bit-of-everything guy, he may soon be the odd man out.


Knicks have everything on paper. Maybe the Thibs burnout effect was real and their starting 5 could use some strategic load management to get over the hump.

[Nomad]

Ninja you're writing longer treatises than during the reg season... what's up?