The Buxton Debate

[ageofreason13]

Buxton's bb/K ratio and plus defense put him ahead of Sano as a prospect. Sano is passable at 3B right now, and I'd argue that he will likely have more trouble with the AA breaking balls than Buxton. Of course, if you were buying Buxton autos for the quick flip you better hope they grade well.

[dasiegel]

Originally Posted by jubei777

Buxton prices will settle in over time. Great time to flip, bad time to buy.

Originally Posted by bigsmoot2

Yep, and if you are buying now, how the heck can they be flipped at these prices?

It's the shiny new toy thing like stated above.

The people who are buying now are either idiots or more likely collectors. Some peopel on here forget how many people still are in the hobby for collecting, as where we talk investing a lot on a niche sports card forum.

[mnvikingstwins]

Originally Posted by ageofreason13

Buxton's bb/K ratio and plus defense put him ahead of Sano as a prospect. Sano is passable at 3B right now, and I'd argue that he will likely have more trouble with the AA breaking balls than Buxton. Of course, if you were buying Buxton autos for the quick flip you better hope they grade well.

He apparently is better at breaking balls over spring training.

[ctbinvestments]

Originally Posted by steelers

All the statements are wrong on Buxton so far on here. The public is much more educated than you think about prospects. Last year at this time, everyone was wondering why people were buying Taveras chrome autos for 50.00 and were very critical of a so called " violent swing " and the fact he had not played above A ball and was bad defensive player with little power. But his cards got even hotter and so did his performance. Buxton was the top guy in the entire draft last year and is playing in the Midwest league this year, a notorious pitchers league that you never see guys right out of high school dominate. Buxton is dominating the league right now. Baseball America and other sites have already said he is now among the top 5 prospects in the game and is now above Miguel Sano as a prospect. This is not the new shinny toy. This is a special talent whose all around game is scary and he is just getting started. Did you notice have fast Correa's cards came down ? That is because he is not playing well and was over hyped. Buxton color ref autos have actually gone UP since release if you look. His high end stuff will not come down as there is a ridiculous number of buyers. His regular chrome auto may come down some because there is a ton of them out there. But, yes this guy is for real and could be a bargain when you look at Bryce Harper's chrome autos and what they started out at.

Bad fielder yes, no power? He was coming off a season where he his SLG% was .584 and a OPS of 1.028 as a 19 year old in A ball. I wouldn't call that no power. How many other people SLG over .550 in the MWL? Buxton's base prices will come down as 90% of prospect card buyers are "prospectors/investors/flippers" whatever you want to call them. The general "fan/collector" cannot substain/support a $100 value on a card readily available in the marketplace. Flippers/prospetors can but most of the major players I know (like myself) are passing until they get to $70 range.

[ageofreason13]

Originally Posted by mnvikingstwins

He apparently is better at breaking balls over spring training.

What? You are referencing 10 at bats that likely came early in spring training when pitchers weren't even throwing all their pitches. I can see the case for saying Sano is the top prospect; he has more power and has more professional at bats under his belt. Sano has a bit worse than a 1/2 BB/K ratio, while Buxton is nearly 1-1. Sano has more strikeouts than games played.

[ageofreason13]

And I did buy a Buxton. I know I paid too much, but I wanted to put it with my 2012 draft set since Topps decided to leave the top 2 picks out of it.

[bigsmoot2]

Originally Posted by ctbinvestments

Bad fielder yes, no power? He was coming off a season where he his SLG% was .584 and a OPS of 1.028 as a 19 year old in A ball. I wouldn't call that no power. How many other people SLG over .550 in the MWL? Buxton's base prices will come down as 90% of prospect card buyers are "prospectors/investors/flippers" whatever you want to call them. The general "fan/collector" cannot substain/support a $100 value on a card readily available in the marketplace. Flippers/prospetors can but most of the major players I know (like myself) are passing until they get to $70 range.

Bolded part is right on, and exactly what I am doing.

[refuse24]

Originally Posted by Adamchuk

I happen to remember a prospect named Bubba Starling whose base raw autos stayed between $80-$100 for about a year until he actually started playing. I think the Buxton autos have staying power for a while in the $85-$100 range

Bubba Starling is going turn out to be 1 of the biggest "Flops" in recent history and if anybody is heavy invested in "Bubba" I would unload your stash and take your lumps.

My point is don't always believe in the "Hype" no matter what is being said.

[frozenntimesports]

Originally Posted by bigsmoot2

Bolded part is right on, and exactly what I am doing.

And if it doesn't ever come down to $70, who cares, there are better investments out there, just use your brain.

Buxton base is at $100-110, which means you need to get to $200 to double your money.

Right now last year's Richie Shaffer is $20-25. You need to get to $50 to double your money.

What is more likely?

[mnvikingstwins]

Originally Posted by ageofreason13

What? You are referencing 10 at bats that likely came early in spring training when pitchers weren't even throwing all their pitches. I can see the case for saying Sano is the top prospect; he has more power and has more professional at bats under his belt. Sano has a bit worse than a 1/2 BB/K ratio, while Buxton is nearly 1-1. Sano has more strikeouts than games played.

No, from talking with their hitting coach/video coach for the Miracle's spring training squad who seemed to be quite qualified and was saying that Sano is improving on breaking balls compared to Beloit last year where it was an automatic K on 2 strikes with a curve.

[ageofreason13]

Originally Posted by mnvikingstwins

No, from talking with their hitting coach/video coach for the Miracle's spring training squad who seemed to be quite qualified and was saying that Sano is improving on breaking balls compared to Beloit last year where it was an automatic K on 2 strikes with a curve.

You should have said that first I'd say the coaches observation is far more important than what he does at the plate in the Spring. I still would like to see him get under a K per game.

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by aaron41984

Go buy Sano. If you don't already own any, you might not know just how horrendous those 2010 BC Autos are. So many scratches, indentions, creases, did I say indentions?

The educated buyer is scared of his raw 2010 BC autos because of the condition issues but his Ref Autos are still close to $150.

I'm well aware of Topps quality control issues with all chrome related products produced in 2010. BGS 9 copies still sell relatively cheap.

That's another thing I never understood about the Grading market. You could have a year like 2010 where BGS 9s were more scarce than a BGS 9.5 from 2013, yet 2013 9.5s get nice premiums despite having a gem rate of 75% of the print run (just a guess)

[geoff05]

I have watched Buxton live he is a very special talent, when they created the phrase five tool this guy would have been the role model this guy is better than McCutchen,Hunter,adam jones all were at this age. I would be really surprised if his Chrome autos dip in price any time soon. Twins seem to always have a strong market for there prospects.

[blackandgold]

Originally Posted by refuse24

Bubba Starling is going turn out to be 1 of the biggest "Flops" in recent history and if anybody is heavy invested in "Bubba" I would unload your stash and take your lumps.

My point is don't always believe in the "Hype" no matter what is being said.

Please let me know how you came to this conclusion. Scouts are saying they have seen improvement lately

[steelers]

Originally Posted by bigsmoot2

Bolded part is right on, and exactly what I am doing.

Yeah, there is a chance his base chrome auto comes down to 75.00, but guess what, if that happens everyone and their mama will be buying them at that price. I know of one big buyer that would take 100 Buxton chrome autos at 75.00 each. I remember lots of people were saying the same thing on Harper chrome autos when they came out. Just wait a while, they will drop and that is the time to buy. Well, they didn't drop much because the demand is so strong for him. I think the same could be said with Buxton. Not comparing the two, but Buxton is playing A LOT better than Harper did in the minors. When a player gets as much press as these guys did, it does not take much for them to jump in price.

[mwash1983]

Originally Posted by steelers

Yeah, there is a chance his base chrome auto comes down to 75.00, but guess what, if that happens everyone and their mama will be buying them at that price. I know of one big buyer that would take 100 Buxton chrome autos at 75.00 each. I remember lots of people were saying the same thing on Harper chrome autos when they came out. Just wait a while, they will drop and that is the time to buy. Well, they didn't drop much because the demand is so strong for him. I think the same could be said with Buxton. Not comparing the two, but Buxton is playing A LOT better than Harper did in the minors. When a player gets as much press as these guys did, it does not take much for them to jump in price.

Harper dominated while being a year young than Buxton, same with Trout. Buxton is good, but Trout and Harper dominated A-Ball in their age 18 season.

[jmscoggin]

Originally Posted by steelers

Yeah, there is a chance his base chrome auto comes down to 75.00, but guess what, if that happens everyone and their mama will be buying them at that price. I know of one big buyer that would take 100 Buxton chrome autos at 75.00 each. I remember lots of people were saying the same thing on Harper chrome autos when they came out. Just wait a while, they will drop and that is the time to buy. Well, they didn't drop much because the demand is so strong for him. I think the same could be said with Buxton. Not comparing the two, but Buxton is playing A LOT better than Harper did in the minors. When a player gets as much press as these guys did, it does not take much for them to jump in price.

I will buy one but my mama isn't a buyer until/unless they hit $50.

[dthimesch]

Originally Posted by NeedChapmans

See that everybody ... you're all wrong. Bet you didn't know that until just now.

he actually makes some very valid points.

Originally Posted by bigsmoot2

Bolded part is right on, and exactly what I am doing.

You really think they come down to $70 with the way he is playing?

[rangerfans2]

I could see them dropping to $80ish, right about where Taveras could be bought early last year.

[bigsmoot2]

Originally Posted by dthimesch

he actually makes some very valid points.



You really think they come down to $70 with the way he is playing?

Maybe, maybe not.

If not, what is the point at buying them at $100, unless you are buying them to hold onto them for a PC or something.

Most prospectors buy cards to make money, whether it is to stockpile, buy a few and flip when the time is right, whatever. I don't see how there can be much money made on buying a base auto at $100.

There have been very few folks whose base autos started at $100 or over.

Harper, and then who?

If they don't dip down that far, it doesn't really concern me that much, there are much smarter buys out there right now then Buxton.

I think he will be good, but we'll see if the market can hold these prices for base autos.

I mean his prices right now are higher than Taveras, that doesn't seem quite right does it?

[Andrew Jones]

Originally Posted by dthimesch

You really think they come down to $70 with the way he is playing?

Yes, because they are priced for him to continue to play at his current level all season and into the future. Nobody can sustain the numbers Buxton has put up thus far. Once he has the inevitable slump, breaks a toe, struggles when moving up a level, etc., his prices will drop just like every other prospect.

[ctbinvestments]

Originally Posted by steelers

Yeah, there is a chance his base chrome auto comes down to 75.00, but guess what, if that happens everyone and their mama will be buying them at that price. I know of one big buyer that would take 100 Buxton chrome autos at 75.00 each. I remember lots of people were saying the same thing on Harper chrome autos when they came out. Just wait a while, they will drop and that is the time to buy. Well, they didn't drop much because the demand is so strong for him. I think the same could be said with Buxton. Not comparing the two, but Buxton is playing A LOT better than Harper did in the minors. When a player gets as much press as these guys did, it does not take much for them to jump in price.

Harper was the most hyped prospect ever and even non-baseball fans knew about him because he was on the cover of ESPN magazine and in the majors at age 19. If Buxton was Harper he'd already be playing 130+ games in the majors this year. Clearly that's not going to happen this year and probably not next year either. Harper is a rare talent that could lead the majors in home runs for 5 years straight. That isn't Buxtons game and I'm not taking away from the tremendous start to his career but "chicks dig the longball".

Originally Posted by dthimesch

You really think they come down to $70 with the way he is playing?

They will definitely come down very close if not to $70. Too many available and no prospect has ever substained a $100 value before AA except Harper. Trout was well hyped and put up good numbers and his were only $50 in the offseason of 2011.

[mnvikingstwins]

His walkoff grannie yesterday should make a short-term drop difficult.

[BearsFaninCltNC]

I could have sworn that justin upton chromes stayed over the century mark when released.

[Andrew Jones]

Originally Posted by BearsFaninCltNC

I could have sworn that justin upton chromes stayed over the century mark when released.

Several guys have sold for $100+ at the time of release. Other than Harper, I can't think of one that has never fallen below the $100 mark. I'm pretty sure Upton base autos haven't been in the $100+ range for a few years now.