Regret into buying QB hype early?

[Nostalgia]

Probably a few weeks too late to get into Maye....

If you believe in him, wait for a loss, then buy.

[Bosoxfan5990]

Originally Posted by Nostalgia

Probably a few weeks too late to get into Maye....

If you believe in him, wait for the offseason, then buy.

FIFY.

[boxbuster7]

anybody that bought any RC QB in 2021 got slaughtered

[Jeter1020]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

anybody that bought any RC QB in 2021 got slaughtered

Not a good class


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[Bosoxfan5990]

Originally Posted by boxbuster7

anybody that bought any RC QB in 2021 got slaughtered

Don't tell that to FCG.

[jlzinck]

Originally Posted by Bosoxfan5990

Don't forget Stidham.

I have them all. Michael Bishop. Kevin O'Connell, Rohan Davies and even a couple Mac Jones

[fungi2510]

I think there is, or at least used to be, a sweet science to doing this. Patrick Mahomes is the poster child for this, but I know his prices were never SUPER low. Picking a qb who is a decently high draft pick (third round or earlier) who comes into a situation where they have an established veteran that might be getting a little long in the tooth. The qb HAS to sit for the first year. I know that does not happen as much anymore, but there are situations. Think if Russell Wilson had come out and done well, Dart might not be playing yet.

Buying has to be done in a window before they announce that the qb will be the starter. If you pick the right guy, he will get the chance. Teams rarely invest even in a 2nd round qb without the intention of him taking over one day.

When the qb gets the opportunity, sell. Do not hold on hoping for Mahomes. Take your 5x investment and be happy.

This strategy worked so well for me on Kevin Kolb, a little on Mahomes, and a few others. It just might not be as effective these days with gms and coaches being more impatient than they had been in the past.

[majestik101]

Anybody remember the Nick Mullens hype from 2018? Everyone, and I do mean EVERYONE thought he was going to be the next big hobby darling after his NFL debut versus the Raiders on Thursday Night Football.

So much so, that I remember his Panini Instant RC's were selling for 4 figures

I bet you those doofuses regret buying into the QB hype early

[Bosoxfan5990]

Originally Posted by fungi2510

I think there is, or at least used to be, a sweet science to doing this. Patrick Mahomes is the poster child for this, but I know his prices were never SUPER low. Picking a qb who is a decently high draft pick (third round or earlier) who comes into a situation where they have an established veteran that might be getting a little long in the tooth. The qb HAS to sit for the first year. I know that does not happen as much anymore, but there are situations. Think if Russell Wilson had come out and done well, Dart might not be playing yet.

Buying has to be done in a window before they announce that the qb will be the starter. If you pick the right guy, he will get the chance. Teams rarely invest even in a 2nd round qb without the intention of him taking over one day.

When the qb gets the opportunity, sell. Do not hold on hoping for Mahomes. Take your 5x investment and be happy.

This strategy worked so well for me on Kevin Kolb, a little on Mahomes, and a few others. It just might not be as effective these days with gms and coaches being more impatient than they had been in the past.

Not only this, but the delay in the release schedule has hurt as well.

[fungi2510]

Originally Posted by Bosoxfan5990

Not only this, but the delay in the release schedule has hurt as well.

Very true. I was able to get Kolb NT autos well before there was any hype about him at all. It was not into the next season when they were released.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by majestik101

Anybody remember the Nick Mullens hype from 2018? Everyone, and I do mean EVERYONE thought he was going to be the next big hobby darling after his NFL debut versus the Raiders on Thursday Night Football.

So much so, that I remember his Panini Instant RC's were selling for 4 figures

I bet you those doofuses regret buying into the QB hype early

Bwahahha. I remember this well.

I'll add another: Trevor Siemian.

Guy had 1 rookie card, his Contenders, and it went from worthless to $200 in the course of 1 night.

There's one available for $7 right now, but I'm really holding off until I can nab one for under $5 to help complete my set chase.

[Grid]

Originally Posted by fungi2510

Buying has to be done in a window before they announce that the qb will be the starter. If you pick the right guy, he will get the chance. Teams rarely invest even in a 2nd round qb without the intention of him taking over one day.

When the qb gets the opportunity, sell. Do not hold on hoping for Mahomes. Take your 5x investment and be happy.

This strategy worked so well for me on Kevin Kolb, a little on Mahomes, and a few others. It just might not be as effective these days with gms and coaches being more impatient than they had been in the past.

QB contracts are so huge these days for legit starters. If you take a QB high in the first, you are expected to play them and free up money that would otherwise be spent on a legit Vet starter.

What worked 10 years ago, doesn't really work now. And if you are picking top 10, that means you suck most of the time. So you dont have yourself a good starting Vet to begin with.

Ward, Dart, Caleb, Hayden, Maye, Penix, Nix, Bryce, CJ, Richardson, Pickett, T-Law, Fields, Burow, Tua, Herbert ETC

JJ McCarthy sat, but only cause he was hurt. The only guy to sit and learn, like your above, was Jordan Love. Rare that anyone sits and trains a high pick QB behind a legit starting Vet like Love and Rodgers.

[majestik101]

Originally Posted by Grid

QB contracts are so huge these days for legit starters. If you take a QB high in the first, you are expected to play them and free up money that would otherwise be spent on a legit Vet starter.

What worked 10 years ago, doesn't really work now. And if you are picking top 10, that means you suck most of the time. So you dont have yourself a good starting Vet to begin with.

Ward, Dart, Caleb, Hayden, Maye, Penix, Nix, Bryce, CJ, Richardson, Pickett, T-Law, Fields, Burow, Tua, Herbert ETC

JJ McCarthy sat, but only cause he was hurt. The only guy to sit and learn, like your above, was Jordan Love. Rare that anyone sits and trains a high pick QB behind a legit starting Vet like Love and Rodgers.

Kyle Trask was the 6th QB taken, picked in the second round of the 2021 NFL draft and had the benefit of being Tom Brady, the GOAT's understudy for 2 whole years and is currently twiddling his thumbs waiting for the phone to ring.

The knock against him during training camp and subsequently during all 4 years with his team was that he struggled grasping the NFL playbook. Sometimes it's what's between the ears.

[hermanotarjeta]

Herbert.

I feel really bad for those who paid dearly for his graded common base rookies.

[Siberian13]

Remember the Garhippolo gang?

[hermanotarjeta]

Has anyone not regretted stepping foot onto the Purdy train?

[Grid]

Originally Posted by majestik101

Kyle Trask was the 6th QB taken, picked in the second round of the 2021 NFL draft and had the benefit of being Tom Brady, the GOAT's understudy for 2 whole years and is currently twiddling his thumbs waiting for the phone to ring.

The knock against him during training camp and subsequently during all 4 years with his team was that he struggled grasping the NFL playbook. Sometimes it's what's between the ears.

Yup. The stars all have to align. Love sat under Rodgers, but by all accounts Rodgers was not teaching Love much of anything.

Will Howard is out there in Pittsburgh right now. Rodgers says he is one and done after this season. I'd have to think Howard takes over next year. But also doubt Rodgers has been taking him under wing...

[Siberian13]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Has anyone not regretted stepping foot onto the Purdy train?

Bbases

[asujbl]

Originally Posted by majestik101

Anybody remember the Nick Mullens hype from 2018? Everyone, and I do mean EVERYONE thought he was going to be the next big hobby darling after his NFL debut versus the Raiders on Thursday Night Football.

So much so, that I remember his Panini Instant RC's were selling for 4 figures

I bet you those doofuses regret buying into the QB hype early

Originally Posted by tjforce

Bwahahha. I remember this well.

I'll add another: Trevor Siemian.

Guy had 1 rookie card, his Contenders, and it went from worthless to $200 in the course of 1 night.

There's one available for $7 right now, but I'm really holding off until I can nab one for under $5 to help complete my set chase.

You guys are children. So young

You weren’t here when Mike Kafka NT RPA’s were going for $500 back in 2010

[Grid]

Originally Posted by asujbl

You guys are children. So young

You weren’t here when Mike Kafka NT RPA’s were going for $500 back in 2010

That's precious. But I remember people taking out loans to buy Matt Cassel SP Authentic RC Autos in 2008 when Tom Brady went down. And "Matty Nice" was tossing 4,000 yards and winning games in New England.

[Grave252]

The odd thing to me is that it's not entirely just a rookie thing. Take Herbert for example - he is in year 6, has essentially a .500 record, and no playoff wins. It's likely he never wins a superbowl, nor will he amass big enough stats to be considered in the upper echelon of QB's all time...yet in the last four months alone he has had 70 cards sell for over $10K. For people buying at those prices - what is the end game? Like most modern QB's, on a long enough horizon (say 10 years for him), it's just a slow ride downwards in value. It's a part of the hobby I don't quite grasp.

[Grid]

Buy the hype! People holding cards of the below made out like bandits at one time, if they sold before the eventual dip. I would have put Tebow instead of The Sanchize for 2011. But Tebow was never cheap back then.

Derek Anderson 2007
Tyler Thigpen 2008
Matt Cassell 2010
Mark Sanchez in 2011
RGIII in 2012
Mike Glennon 2013
Brock Osweiler 2015

[asujbl]

Originally Posted by Grid

That's precious. But I remember people taking out loans to buy Matt Cassel SP Authentic RC Autos in 2008 when Tom Brady went down. And "Matty Nice" was tossing 4,000 yards and winning games in New England.

I didn’t join until 2010 so you’re an old man

[Siberian13]

How much was lost on Andrew luck?

[asujbl]

Originally Posted by Siberian13

How much was lost on Andrew luck?

That was hype though

Dummy