First Buzz: 2021-22 Panini Flawless basketball cards

[istheskyblew]

Originally Posted by Tarheelsfan2012

It was sarcasm on my part. I 100% agree with you. At the prices they are claiming a "sell out" it will be an absolute bloodbath. I wouldn't recommend people open this at $500 a box because you will still lose $$$.

I miss your 5 casers... used to be my favorite time of the year

[Tarheelsfan2012]

Originally Posted by istheskyblew

I miss your 5 casers... used to be my favorite time of the year

I miss them too! I don't know if they would fill but as long as the wax prices are still inflated while the secondary market is soft I can't justify trying to run one. Most will lose big on them. I'm holding out hope in another year box prices will have corrected even more and maybe we can run some

[smalltown]

Originally Posted by Tarheelsfan2012

I miss them too! I don't know if they would fill but as long as the wax prices are still inflated while the secondary market is soft I can't justify trying to run one. Most will lose big on them. I'm holding out hope in another year box prices will have corrected even more and maybe we can run some

Keeping the dream alive!

[Tarheelsfan2012]

Originally Posted by smalltown

Keeping the dream alive!

[regularp]

Release date pushed back to March 8th. https://www.blowoutcards.com/sports-...hobby-box.html

[threepointplay]

Originally Posted by regularp

Release date pushed back to March 8th. https://www.blowoutcards.com/sports-...hobby-box.html

...or 3rd of August for the rest of world; which would be wonderful...a product turning up a whole year late!

[mossoholic]

If anyone wants to buy this better hurry before it "sells out"! Only $11,000 a box! $22,000 per 2 box case! You can buy 2020-21 Flawless hobby right now for $7,371. Odds are less if you make a real offer. God forbid if the price manipulators charged "only" $7,000 a box for 21-22. They'd "only" make give or take $5,000 a box to open the product from Panini and change the shipping label to reship. But why do that when they don't want to do their job of actually distributing product? Gotta make sure to screw everyone out of every last penny. Can't take any chances a product could actually increase in price after they sell it. I gotta hand it to them. They've done a great job over the last year. How many distributor controlled new basketball hobby products have increased from presale over the last year? Have there been any? Maybe 1 or 2 out of 50+. More than I can count have gone down more than 50% from presale.

Gotta love a product when you can hit logoman autographs and still lose on a box! A product you can pull the top rookie patch autograph in any box and still can lose thousands on a box. There is no couple million dollar chase card like last year either. There are big cards in this product but can't imagine any are worth what the Warriors triple logoman sold for last year. That wasn't even the top card in 20-21 Flawless.

If Victor is what he looks like he will be over or under $30,000 a box presale for 2023-24 Flawless basketball hobby? Bums will have to make sure everything is priced like Victor is at worst the 3rd best NBA player over the last 20 years.

[ninjacookies]

Cheezus.

What's even a rookie chase hit from this class that covers the cost of a box, outside of maybe the Cade/ Scottie 1/1's? Pretty much vet logoman or bust?

[regularp]

I don't feel bad for anybody who buys this or buys into a break. They obviously have money to burn.

[ninjacookies]

The worst part is they keep raising the price, while the price of singles keeps declining...including slabbed copies.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

The worst part is they keep raising the price, while the price of singles keeps declining...including slabbed copies.

Yes and it's every product with real interest in every sport. Go look at the presale prices. There is not 1 product priced over double MSRP they are actually trying to sell. Just setting the market sky high for breaks. It's going to get to a point that unless you have permanent brain damage or so much money who cares what you lose your only option is going to be to buy singles. Everything else will be the worst form of gambling on earth.

What happens if people actually wake up and stop buying into breaks and hardly any product gets opened? Once Topps has the licenses something will change. With Panini I really think the money tree members won't care. They are up so much the last 3 years and are paying so little money for all these products they can wait it out. They have no incentive to sell anything in demand they pay next to nothing for. To actually be distributors of sealed product.

2020 Immaculate football hobby presale in late 2020 was $700 a box. 2022, with possibly no Purdy or as a redemption, is $1350 a box presale. It was $1500 a box. A class and time everything was on fire the price is now doubled for arguably the worst hobby class in years during a down time. No one is taking this into account but can Purdy even sign right now with his injury? If he can does he want to sign thousands of autographs? Pretty much all Purdy autographs going forward, especially on card, may be redemptions. He's gone down a ton from 6 weeks ago anyway. Absolutely mind boggling that people are supposedly paying close to the same price to get into breaks for 2022 football products as they are for 2021. You can count the number of 2022 football products, after they are all released, with a single card worth over $25k on one hand.

I guess someone will have to show me the line that everyone is getting in to spent around 1.5-2 times for 2022-23 basketball products that the current versions of 2021-22 are selling at right now. 22-23 Contenders $600 a box? Yeah sure ok. 21-22 Court Kings last auction $180. 22-23 presale $300 a box. Count me in!

Even wrestling with 2023 WWE Prizm is $300 a box presale. You can buy 2022 for $200 a box. 2022 is everyone's first year Prizm. But yet we are told that the "market price" for 2023 is 50% higher?!? GTFO.

If they are going to price 2022-23 basketball this much higher than 21-22 can we anticipate 22-23 Flawless to be $17-$22k a box?!? If so, I may have to reassess my 23-24 Flawless over under. Probably more like $40k a box.

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Cheezus.

What's even a rookie chase hit from this class that covers the cost of a box, outside of maybe the Cade/ Scottie 1/1's? Pretty much vet logoman or bust?

If you've been paying attention to sales over the last 6 months you'd probably be pretty shocked at how many vet logoman and vet logoman autographs won't cover a box. You can pull any rookie patch autograph and still lose thousands. At $12k a box, even more in breaks, 98% of boxes will be losers and no monster chase card like last year. It's bad enough to lose but there will be more boxes that are over a $5,000 loss than boxes you can turn a profit on.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Yes and it's every product with real interest in every sport. Go look at the presale prices. There is not 1 product priced over double MSRP they are actually trying to sell. Just setting the market sky high for breaks. It's going to get to a point that unless you have permanent brain damage or so much money who cares what you lose your only option is going to be to buy singles. Everything else will be the worst form of gambling on earth.

What happens if people actually wake up and stop buying into breaks and hardly any product gets opened? Once Topps has the licenses something will change. With Panini I really think the money tree members won't care. They are up so much the last 3 years and are paying so little money for all these products they can wait it out. They have no incentive to sell anything in demand they pay next to nothing for. To actually be distributors of sealed product.

2020 Immaculate football hobby presale in late 2020 was $700 a box. 2022, with possibly no Purdy or as a redemption, is $1350 a box presale. It was $1500 a box. A class and time everything was on fire the price is now doubled for arguably the worst hobby class in years during a down time. No one is taking this into account but can Purdy even sign right now with his injury? If he can does he want to sign thousands of autographs? Pretty much all Purdy autographs going forward, especially on card, may be redemptions. He's gone down a ton from 6 weeks ago anyway. Absolutely mind boggling that people are supposedly paying close to the same price to get into breaks for 2022 football products as they are for 2021. You can count the number of 2022 football products, after they are all released, with a single card worth over $25k on one hand.

I guess someone will have to show me the line that everyone is getting in to spent around 1.5-2 times for 2022-23 basketball products that the current versions of 2021-22 are selling at right now. 22-23 Contenders $600 a box? Yeah sure ok. 21-22 Court Kings last auction $180. 22-23 presale $300 a box. Count me in!

Even wrestling with 2023 WWE Prizm is $300 a box presale. You can buy 2022 for $200 a box. 2022 is everyone's first year Prizm. But yet we are told that the "market price" for 2023 is 50% higher?!? GTFO.

We all know gb's are the only thing propping the thread up on the sealed wax price gauging mechanism.


It all ends when gb ends. But will that ever happen? Most likely not.

Not unless some sort of regulation gets put into place that produce roadblocks to entry and drastically cuts into gb profit margins. I mean...in actuality, it's just an alternate form of 3rd party hosted gambling (setting prices on undetermined outcomes), minus the governing bodies and legislation.

Doesn't bother me much, as I've avoided the whole segment altogether.

There are some hidden gems though, despite the fact they aren't as coveted.

Bowman chrome university fb comes to mind. /hype

[mossoholic]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

We all know gb's are the only thing propping the thread up on the sealed wax price gauging mechanism.


It all ends when gb ends. But will that ever happen? Most likely not.

Not unless some sort of regulation gets put into place that produce roadblocks to entry and drastically cuts into gb profit margins. I mean...in actuality, it's just an alternate form of 3rd party hosted gambling (setting prices on undetermined outcomes), minus the governing bodies and legislation.

Doesn't bother me much, as I've avoided the whole segment altogether.

There are some hidden gems though, despite the fact they aren't as coveted.

Bowman chrome university fb comes to mind. /hype

Everything hidden gem you speak of is a product that the bums don't get to control 99% of the wax market of. Collegiate and unlicensed have absolutely tanked in the last year. Money tree members don't care about those products. They care about the ones in demand that are cash cows. Not many products from Topps if any are going to be cash cows moving forward because Topps is setting distributor cost at whatever they feel like. They are no longer going to ship product after product year after year to distributors for a fraction of market value.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

Everything hidden gem you speak of is a product that the bums don't get to control 99% of the wax market of. Collegiate and unlicensed have absolutely tanked in the last year. Money tree members don't care about those products. They care about the ones in demand that are cash cows. Not many products from Topps if any are going to be cash cows moving forward because Topps is setting distributor cost at whatever they feel like. They are no longer going to ship product after product year after year to distributors for a fraction of market value.

I prefer the term Penniless Pauper, pal.




See. I really don't care about controlling the market, or what the LFGGGGGG masses are breaking. I'm only concerned with having a casual rip that's enjoyable, offers decent return value, and doesn't require pre-filled Chapter 7 paperwork.

I know my lane in this game. 2015-2018 FOTL was a run ride, but the funny munny days are long behind us. As my man Short Dog once so eloquented stated,

[sethc1020]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

I prefer the term Penniless Pauper, pal.




See. I really don't care about controlling the market, or what the LFGGGGGG masses are breaking. I'm only concerned with having a casual rip that's enjoyable, offers decent return value, and doesn't require pre-filled Chapter 7 paperwork.

I know my lane in this game. 2015-2018 FOTL was a run ride, but the funny munny days are long behind us. As my man Short Dog once so eloquented stated,

I do what I want, a true blue mac won't even front!

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by sethc1020

I do what I want, a true blue mac won't even front!

[escapegoat]

early vote to challenge lawrence maroney one day.

[Miz]

If they price it at a price point no one buys and breakers run through 5 percent of cases with the degen money train and 95 percent sits unopened…how does anyone make money? I know there is a real answer I just hate math and can’t do it in my head

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by mossoholic

If anyone wants to buy this better hurry before it "sells out"! Only $11,000 a box! $22,000 per 2 box case! You can buy 2020-21 Flawless hobby right now for $7,371. Odds are less if you make a real offer. God forbid if the price manipulators charged "only" $7,000 a box for 21-22. They'd "only" make give or take $5,000 a box to open the product from Panini and change the shipping label to reship. But why do that when they don't want to do their job of actually distributing product? Gotta make sure to screw everyone out of every last penny. Can't take any chances a product could actually increase in price after they sell it. I gotta hand it to them. They've done a great job over the last year. How many distributor controlled new basketball hobby products have increased from presale over the last year? Have there been any? Maybe 1 or 2 out of 50+. More than I can count have gone down more than 50% from presale.

Gotta love a product when you can hit logoman autographs and still lose on a box! A product you can pull the top rookie patch autograph in any box and still can lose thousands on a box. There is no couple million dollar chase card like last year either. There are big cards in this product but can't imagine any are worth what the Warriors triple logoman sold for last year. That wasn't even the top card in 20-21 Flawless.

If Victor is what he looks like he will be over or under $30,000 a box presale for 2023-24 Flawless basketball hobby? Bums will have to make sure everything is priced like Victor is at worst the 3rd best NBA player over the last 20 years.

Holy crap. $11K.


To put it in perspective, I was able to pick up Evan Mobley's NBA Debut Jersey... the whole damn thing, for less than the cost of a case of this.

[hermanotarjeta]

Originally Posted by Miz

If they price it at a price point no one buys and breakers run through 5 percent of cases with the degen money train and 95 percent sits unopened…how does anyone make money? I know there is a real answer I just hate math and can’t do it in my head

People don’t realize the money, but in their minds they are sitting on a $20,000 case, so they feel rich.

If they really need to cash out, other case sitters/retailers would gladly pay $13,000 for the case, essentially passing it around to each other when someone needs some cash.

The end user really never needs to actually possess the case - it’s value is maintained via illusion.

[threepointplay]

...now moved back to May 26th!

[Nomad]

the thing is inflation by May 26th will have made this a pretty good deal. lock it in.

[regularp]

A 21-22 product coming out AFTER the 22-23 regular season is over is insane. What a joke of a company.

It's sad the NBA doesn't care at all about this. It'd be like NBA 2K coming out in September without Victor but instead, just the 2022 Draft Class.

[drobfan8]

Laughable how late this is going to be.

But I will be grabbing some from the anniversary base diamond set.

Hopefully they use better pics than that Zion.