What do you think about Pop reports?

[speedyjg13]

People cite "pop" reports for monetary gain. That's all. Buy the card, not the grade.

[vinnieb]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

I am a physicist, so I like to look a correlation. POP reports to me are a subset of cards and I don't like to look at them separately from raw cards. I think the price correlation between raw cards and PSA 9's(PSA 8's for pre-2000's) are more useful than any POP report for junk wax to modern cards. I actually chart raw sales more than graded sales, it really shows me how much the cards are truly desired and not desired in a slab. Especially with slab costs so high, the value of the POP report is artificially inflated right now.

Example 1 - 1989 Ken Griffey UD
Raw cards that look like PSA 8 range sell in the $60 to $80 range and a PSA 8 sells for $80 to $90. This makes sense and shows the raw card sales are in align with PSA graded cards. It also makes sense for a buyer to take a gamble to try to get that raw card and try to get a PSA 9. This card is very high population, but a very stable card with high demand.

Example 2 - Anthony Edwards #258 Base Prizm Rookie
A PSA 9 sells for $60 to $80 and raw cards go from $15 to $20. Once we get into this 4x multiplier we can see that the card value is being propped up from low population numbers.

Many Shaq and Kobe rookies suffer from this as well. The raw cards fall well below their graded card equivalent. Once I start to see this 4x multiplier it makes me hesitate about buying the graded card. You are not buying the card, but you are buying the slab. As time goes on the graded card will go down in price and the raw copies will maintain or even go up.

This is why I don't check population reports. To me the raw to graded price is a lot more telling to me. Then we have the PSA 10 collectors that just use the slab to show off. The value is absolutely ridiculous for some PSA 10's from the 80's to present. I spent $200 on the following three cards with grading fees and now they are worth $6000. The value is 100% tied to the POP Reports in this case and have nothing to do with the card. People want them to show off and get higher points in the registry. Throw these cards in SGC 10 holders and the value goes down to 20% of this value.

I appreciate your analytical view of this, and it makes perfect sense to me, but doesn't the fact that people pay more for the PSA 10s, based on the Pop report (as you say, it's 100% tied to the pop reports), further support the argument that it does matter, in a hobby where value matters? Not trying to be argumentative, just someone who has been trying to grasp how Pop Reports impact value in the hobby when I try to reconcile cards with 15k+ PSA 10's that go for way more than similar caliber players with PSA 10 Pop Reports of 3k or less.

[vinnieb]

Originally Posted by speedyjg13

People cite "pop" reports for monetary gain. That's all. Buy the card, not the grade.

Again, I don't want to be argumentative, but Pop Report is a direct indication of the supply of the card in that particular grade, is it not? This is important in an industry that values scarcity, is it not?

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by vinnieb

Again, I don't want to be argumentative, but Pop Report is a direct indication of the supply of the card in that particular grade, is it not? This is important in an industry that values scarcity, is it not?

It is artificial scarcity due to PSA basically not taking any submissions for the past year. I have over 100 Shaq and Kobe rookies that are in amazing condition, ready to add to the pop reports. There is a whole lot more junk wax to ultra-modern cards ready to be sent to PSA and flood them once again. There are also a whole lot of SGC/CSG slabs that people will crack and send to PSA as well when there is bulk grading once again.

Even Michael Jordan rookies are added to pop reports every day. You would think that almost every one of them would be graded, but I think people would be absolutely shocked by the great raw 1986 MJ's that exist and are ready to be graded.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by vinnieb

Again, I don't want to be argumentative, but Pop Report is a direct indication of the supply of the card in that particular grade, is it not? This is important in an industry that values scarcity, is it not?

If someone or a group of people want to raise the value of a card, player or set they’ll use their influence…and sometimes shenanigans…to do it no matter the print run.

Rarity and pop counts are often for suckers meant to make one think they’re getting something for their $$$. If this weren’t true than all 1/1s would sell for the price of a car at least.