Regular service returning December 1st?

[TheHeel]

😂😂😂

Still a rip off for a service that was less money and took less time to process a couple years ago. I can wait on my stack.

[FT35]

I think we would have to see a big bump in the market to get people subbing like they were at $20-50/value card. The reason things happened the way they did was because it was worth sending in most cards—they were selling. People would pay $500 to grade base cards if they were selling for $1,000. Obviously using those numbers to to make a point. If they want to come in at $20-50 for value—that might first take an upswing to the economy/market to keep that train rolling past the initial surge.

I think the key to their pricing is to get inside the reason why someone subs a card. For many in the “hobby” now, that reason is profit. In my opinion, the magic happens somewhere in the “if it gets an 8, I may lose a little or break even, a 9 brings a small profit and a 10 is a great profit.” That’s the mentality behind the people making the decisions to sub.

Then you have to look at the cards—what cards does this model have to work for? Ultra modern: superstar/rookie parallels/color chrome to start. Take a 2021 Silver Prizm Luka. Raw is at $15-20. I would think a 9 would bring around $40-50 now. That doesn’t leave a ton of room to sub at a small profit. So you’d have to sub at $15 or less to get people to sub superstar Prizm color/chrome refractors or you’re going to lose a huge chunk of cards that many people have and would otherwise sub under the old system.

[jewcer2k5]

Originally Posted by BRob1

feel free to show the numbers then.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I did, with psa.

Originally Posted by vthobby

Very scientific and very convincing! lmao

"a lot more"

PS: "which is why psa sent the poll they sent too." This sentence appears to be written by a third grader! lol

I don’t have any desire to spend any energy convincing you or anyone. I’ll give my input with the information that I have. You can decide to act childish about or accept the fact.

[The_Reverend]

Originally Posted by FT35

I think we would have to see a big bump in the market to get people subbing like they were at $20-50/value card. The reason things happened the way they did was because it was worth sending in most cards—they were selling. People would pay $500 to grade base cards if they were selling for $1,000. Obviously using those numbers to to make a point. If they want to come in at $20-50 for value—that might first take an upswing to the economy/market to keep that train rolling past the initial surge.

I think the key to their pricing is to get inside the reason why someone subs a card. For many in the “hobby” now, that reason is profit. In my opinion, the magic happens somewhere in the “if it gets an 8, I may lose a little or break even, a 9 brings a small profit and a 10 is a great profit.” That’s the mentality behind the people making the decisions to sub.

Then you have to look at the cards—what cards does this model have to work for? Ultra modern: superstar/rookie parallels/color chrome to start. Take a 2021 Silver Prizm Luka. Raw is at $15-20. I would think a 9 would bring around $40-50 now. That doesn’t leave a ton of room to sub at a small profit. So you’d have to sub at $15 or less to get people to sub superstar Prizm color/chrome refractors or you’re going to lose a huge chunk of cards that many people have and would otherwise sub under the old system.

My strategy was different at the $25 range during the major run up on prices then it will be going forward.

Then, PSA 9 I made enough on the cards to pay off my submissions selling off the PSA 9’s and keeping the PSA 10’s , except for PSA 10’s I deemed worthy of selling, glad I sold off a lot of those ultra modern RC cards. PSS 10’s are still profitable and I have a nice 10 collection.

For more modern/GOAT cards, PSA 9’s we’re kept and sold off myself or held for the future. I did extremely well with that strategy and would consider a similar strategy, but for one thing: INFLATION AND and economy that will get worse before it gets better. We are in a supply and demand cycle where the supply outweighs the demand and prices are showing this, especially with ultra modern stuff and a slowdown in the basketball market. Money can still be made because many of the submissions coming back were at much lower prices, but at $50/100 for value, you better be right on what you send that it will get a 10 for ULTRA and 9 for GOATS.

Oh and Josh can vouch for my strategy. Lol

[ArmyDC]

I think there is a sweet spot for $50 as long as you don’t have to submit 20 cards. I also don’t see them returning to value until the backlog of value cards is clear. They have not made much headway in my two value orders sent November/December 2020. My guess is put feelers out for December but maybe 1 Jan.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by jewcer2k5

I don’t have any desire to spend any energy convincing you or anyone. I’ll give my input with the information that I have. You can decide to act childish about or accept the fact.

I expect the anti-PSA rhetoric to ramp up as access to PSA services opens up.

[dunkindutchmen]

Originally Posted by FT35

I think we would have to see a big bump in the market to get people subbing like they were at $20-50/value card. The reason things happened the way they did was because it was worth sending in most cards—they were selling. People would pay $500 to grade base cards if they were selling for $1,000. Obviously using those numbers to to make a point. If they want to come in at $20-50 for value—that might first take an upswing to the economy/market to keep that train rolling past the initial surge.

I think the key to their pricing is to get inside the reason why someone subs a card. For many in the “hobby” now, that reason is profit. In my opinion, the magic happens somewhere in the “if it gets an 8, I may lose a little or break even, a 9 brings a small profit and a 10 is a great profit.” That’s the mentality behind the people making the decisions to sub.

Then you have to look at the cards—what cards does this model have to work for? Ultra modern: superstar/rookie parallels/color chrome to start. Take a 2021 Silver Prizm Luka. Raw is at $15-20. I would think a 9 would bring around $40-50 now. That doesn’t leave a ton of room to sub at a small profit. So you’d have to sub at $15 or less to get people to sub superstar Prizm color/chrome refractors or you’re going to lose a huge chunk of cards that many people have and would otherwise sub under the old system.

Yeah, to me it looks like the lower-end base market has completely collapsed. Last night on ebay you had many Ja Morant PSA 10 low-end RCs going for less than 30 bucks. Won't make much sense to attempt to grade these types of cards in the future.

[The_Reverend]

As usually happens in markets, the correction alone will remove many cards from piles. Should they have been sent? Maybe not, but they turned a profit in PSA 9 grade. Many of those same cards are not even going to turn a profit as a PSA 10, cough Chronicles/Draft products. It will be interesting to see just how many cards the biggest submitter TO PSA will receive. JOSH my ears are open. You have assisted me ALOT!!!

Also PSA being closed saved a lot of people from themselves.

I will be grading my first 2 2020 rookie cards soon
Wiseman Revolution CNY Emerald /88 is one.

[FT35]

Originally Posted by dunkindutchmen

Yeah, to me it looks like the lower-end base market has completely collapsed. Last night on ebay you had many Ja Morant PSA 10 low-end RCs going for less than 30 bucks. Won't make much sense to attempt to grade these types of cards in the future.

And I get it! Hobbyists would agree, a lot of stuff people were sending in should not have been sent in. BUT…from a PSA perspective—the more people send in, the better…low end included. It just has to be worth it and the card fountain will flow. Personally I would be let down if it no longer made sense to grade top rookies and the more popular brands of superstar parallels/color. That’s appealing to the many and keeps slabs as an important part of mainstream collecting.

[jewcer2k5]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I expect the anti-PSA rhetoric to ramp up as access to PSA services opens up.

And this is why I don’t get involved in these posts most of the time.

[k13]

Originally Posted by FT35

And I get it! Hobbyists would agree, a lot of stuff people were sending in should not have been sent in. BUT…from a PSA perspective—the more people send in, the better…low end included. It just has to be worth it and the card fountain will flow. Personally I would be let down if it no longer made sense to grade top rookies and the more popular brands of superstar parallels/color. That’s appealing to the many and keeps slabs as an important part of mainstream collecting.

Base cards from top rookies in top sets won't even be worth sending at $50 let alone $100.

Even nice vintage is not worth sending at $100.

$150 and $100 might as well be the same.

[rogueriver]

How far have they gotten on their backlog.

[k13]

2019-20 basketball graded 1.55 million
2020-21 basketball graded 43k

2020 baseball graded 540k
2021 baseball graded 6k

2020 football graded 300k
2021 football graded 3k

PSA won't have much to do after the backlog gets cleared out at these prices with this market.

[FT35]

Originally Posted by k13

Base cards from top rookies in top sets won't even be worth sending at $50 let alone $100.

Even nice vintage is not worth sending at $100.

$150 and $100 might as well be the same.

I agree. Also for the collector—grading is straight “cost.” You want the collector to be able to grade their stuff.

[k13]

But if they do get it down to around $35 that will be the end of all those other grading companies again.

[KhalDrogo]

Why does the conversation always revolve around a price point for Value that isn’t going to happen? It’s not going to be $50. It’s not going to be $35. It’s going to be affordable to the point that collectors can afford to compete in the Registry.

So much wasted time talking about something that Nat is telling you won’t happen.

[jewcer2k5]

Originally Posted by FT35

I agree. Also for the collector—grading is straight “cost.” You want the collector to be able to grade their stuff.

Why?

Serious question.

[anusinha]

Remember that PSA is eventually going to need to intake 400k cards a week, when all 3 locations are up next year. that means grading will have to cost something cheap, when you consider how the base gem market has collapsed.

[FT35]

Originally Posted by jewcer2k5

Why?

Serious question.

It’s a major segment of their current client base! They are also a major segment (buyers) to the card market/hobby so you want them to stay engaged with using your services.

Collectors are primarily buyers. PSA would not be smart to box out large groups of buyers from using their services. But like Khal said, it doesn’t sound like that’s the end-game plan.

[SupermanBrandon]

HGA is always an option

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

HGA is always an option

Where 10 days means 10 days!

[dunkindutchmen]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Where 10 days means 10 days!

Were 10 days meens 10 days.

[k13]

Nat said pricing would go back to $20-$30 again.

But easy to say than do.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by jewcer2k5

I did, with psa.

Until someone shows that PSA is accepting x cards per week and the expectation is that it will go up to y when $100 opens its all speculation.

Your survey reached a very niche part of the hobby. you provide a great service, but a lot of the people you reach use you for grade to consign. That’s not where 99% of the hobby is. Most common hobbyists aren’t on blowout and won’t be sending in many more cards at $100 than they they did at $150. What jammed up PSA was $5-50 raw cards and when/if those become gradeable again is when the needle will move on submissions.


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[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by BRob1

Until someone shows that PSA is accepting x cards per week and the expectation is that it will go up to y when $100 opens its all speculation.

Your survey reached a very niche part of the hobby. you provide a great service, but a lot of the people you reach use you for grade to consign. That’s not where 99% of the hobby is. Most common hobbyists aren’t on blowout and won’t be sending in many more cards at $100 than they they did at $150. What jammed up PSA was $5-50 raw cards and when/if those become gradeable again is when the needle will move on submissions.


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Speculation.