Sealed boxes for long term

[JeremyNick]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

GB's are one of the prime driving forces in buoying the prices of modern, overproduced sealed wax.

I don't ever foresee them disappearing, but if they do.....

I feel like right now eyeing flips in the 6-12 month range is best. What is happening with wax prices and retail scavenger hunts is so very new and odd. I don’t trust anything sustaining long term. I just don’t want to be caught holding the $10k Hoops Uber Primo bag.

[Wade Mulroy]

Everyone always talks about how much trouble it is to sell sealed wax, but I've found it to be quite the opposite. I've always found the big online retailers (particularly neighbor Dave) to be very competitive with what they offer for sealed wax. Sure, it's not the peak dollar you'd potentially get on eBay, but you don't have to worry about fees, returns, scams, etc.

Always been a super easy process; barely an inconvenience.

[KhalDrogo]

I suggest you take a look at what some key 90s wax sells for before you throw a bunch of money at 2017+ wax that is well above MSRP.

[mwheeler27]

Originally Posted by Brobocop

This is what basically killed the Star Wars figure market in my mind. Everyone saw how valuable the originals became over time so everyone bought up the prequel figures to keep and hold. They've never really gone anywhere. I was a young teenager so I collected them because I enjoyed it. Ended up donating about 100 figures to a children's hospital a few years ago.

My fears of collecting wax is buying it at inflated prices. I have a small stash that I add to when I can but my only guiding principle is to buy at, or close to, MSRP. A lot harder to do in this world but I got in early on Topps Chrome and Dynasty Formula 1 a few months ago, which have already seen huge price increases.

I don’t think we can compare sealed wax to Star Wars figures.

It’s the thrill of the unknown, the possibility of what’s in the sealed wax that will help keep prices going up on the good stuff. That, plus inflation, etc.

Like someone else mentioned above...more and more people are starting to “collect” sealed wax. That’s not to be mistaken with “investing” in sealed wax. People are enjoying displaying that Blaster box of 2019/20 Prizm. And/or Mega box, Hanger box, Cello, etc.

To answer the OP’s question...Try to get anything Prizm from Panini or “Sapphire” from Topps at MSRP, and your risks are very minimal with potentially huge upsides.

[BiggNuttz]

Originally Posted by Wade Mulroy

Everyone always talks about how much trouble it is to sell sealed wax, but I've found it to be quite the opposite. I've always found the big online retailers (particularly neighbor Dave) to be very competitive with what they offer for sealed wax. Sure, it's not the peak dollar you'd potentially get on eBay, but you don't have to worry about fees, returns, scams, etc.

Always been a super easy process; barely an inconvenience.

See my post two above yours. 100% in agreement. Nothing could be easier and more effortless. I do not think Chris ever sleeps, as he responds to emails in very short order non-stop at all hours.

[boston12]

I don’t have any personal horror stories about selling sealed wax. But I’ve read enough on here to know that the only two options you should consider are selling to BO (or similar) or in person to a LCS or at a show. I have a decent sealed collection and would only sell in the above mentioned methods.

[RogerGodahell]

All wax is not created equal. It all depends on who's inside. Is it Michael Jordan, Kobe, LeBron, Curry, Durant, Luka. You see the odds aren't great every year that wax is going to hold one of those guys. That's what makes those years so special.

[RogerGodahell]

Rookie Cards i should have mentioned

[Brobocop]

Originally Posted by mwheeler27

I don’t think we can compare sealed wax to Star Wars figures.

It’s the thrill of the unknown, the possibility of what’s in the sealed wax that will help keep prices going up on the good stuff. That, plus inflation, etc.

Like someone else mentioned above...more and more people are starting to “collect” sealed wax. That’s not to be mistaken with “investing” in sealed wax. People are enjoying displaying that Blaster box of 2019/20 Prizm. And/or Mega box, Hanger box, Cello, etc.

To answer the OP’s question...Try to get anything Prizm from Panini or “Sapphire” from Topps at MSRP, and your risks are very minimal with potentially huge upsides.

My comparison is that if everyone has the same idea it creates a weird market dynamic. I think with sealed wax, you have to have enough of it being opened where singles create a demand for the product. If nobody is opening product what could (probably not but still, could) happen is without a healthy singles market, how do you gauge the price of wax? I'm not sure if I'm explaining my thoughts all that well here, but just my own thoughts. After spending thousands of dollars over the years on wax I can basically admit that collecting wax is usually the best route to go. Wax doesn't go to zero like that prospect you spent tons of money on could.

[kobemagee29]

Originally Posted by PelicanFly

Not just that, but also printed to oblivion.

If you want to sit on wax for 10 years+ OP, then you do you. IMO it's the most boring way to collect. It's also highly dependent on the draft class, and what hasn't been pulled from other boxes already. The big reason why old wax(86 fleer), Pokemon, and MTG boxes gain value is because there are no numbered cards. Not the case for modern cards. When all the 1/1's, and /5's, and /10's are accounted for, the box better have ICONIC inserts. Once we know that all 10 PMG Green and 90 Red Jordans are out there, the cost of Metal will tank.

If you're talking short term flip, then disregard the message and enjoy.

it has nothing to do with 1/1's and other cards being pulled. it has to do with supply and demand. Once the stuff dries up, it goes up. And it only takes 1 good rc and boxes go crazy. Take a look at what just 2017-18 retail prizm now goes for. I bought a 20 box case at release i believe for around $1200, now it sell for around 20k a case.

[Boo]

Buy 2003-04 basketball wax

[RogerGodahell]

That was the Luka Zion effect that catapulted the market and LeBron 03-4 and 86 fleer

It started a couple years ago in football too with 2000 contenders Brady's those shot up like a rocket

Then the Prizm craze in basketball spiraled out of control since 2017

FOTL had a lot to do with it also

[ksemmel]

Originally Posted by kobemagee29

it has nothing to do with 1/1's and other cards being pulled. it has to do with supply and demand. Once the stuff dries up, it goes up. And it only takes 1 good rc and boxes go crazy. Take a look at what just 2017-18 retail prizm now goes for. I bought a 20 box case at release i believe for around $1200, now it sell for around 20k a case.

Bingo. The big cards have nothing to do with it.

For instance, the link below. These were 2k in the offseason. There are not "big " cards in these. Just base, holo and red and yellow parallels.

https://www.blowoutcards.com/2017-pa...-box-case.html

[doctorres112]

When I look at the prices for 12-13 products (BSKT), it’s makes my stomach turn. I used to buy 11-12 season update on BO for $30/box and Past & Present wasn’t too far behind that. I sort of feel like I missed out on that boat...

However, now that I can afford to take a chance, anytime I can snag a hobby box or retail box of anything 19-20 I do. I just can’t help but think with retail I stand a chance of getting in at MSRP.

Sadly, I can almost never find retail here in San Antonio. When I do, I only grab one or two though that’s usually all that’s left anyway.

I also keep an eye out for ebay coupons and use those to purchase wax when able.

I’m very motivated to start add wax to my portfolio - it’s certainly not without risk though.

-Chris

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by mwheeler27

I don’t think we can compare sealed wax to Star Wars figures.

It’s the thrill of the unknown, the possibility of what’s in the sealed wax that will help keep prices going up on the good stuff. That, plus inflation, etc.

Like someone else mentioned above...more and more people are starting to “collect” sealed wax. That’s not to be mistaken with “investing” in sealed wax. People are enjoying displaying that Blaster box of 2019/20 Prizm. And/or Mega box, Hanger box, Cello, etc.

To answer the OP’s question...Try to get anything Prizm from Panini or “Sapphire” from Topps at MSRP, and your risks are very minimal with potentially huge upsides.

The market dynamic is the exact same as the Star Wars figures.

If nobody opens the wax because they're all investing in it, the supply doesn't dwindle. If the supply doesn't dwindle, how does your wax become more valuable?

I don't disagree that if you can get in at MSRP it's a no brainer because the demand is there. The distributors aren't pricing machines on every product.

It used to be that if you sat on NT boxes at release you'd almost always double your money in 6 months as the supply was opened heavy through personals and breakers. Now stuff like that isn't being opened personally, and even the breaks of some of these higher-end releases that were the sure fire money makers are starting to dwindle.

Down the road it's entirely possible you have a supply problem on your hands, and the price jumps aren't necessarily as big and as fast.

If people no longer desire Prizm base prospecting, what happens to the demand for Prizm wax? There are also certain price points where people just decide it's not worth the risk and don't partake in opening the product (See 2019-20 NT).

[k13]

Future wax will be a question mark as everyone is investing and hoarding but if the wax price stays low and some rookies get hot people rush to buy and more willing to open at cheap prices. Once the wax gets high it just sits getting passed from flipper to flipper.

Some retail was already bad to open at $20 let alone $400 and singles never keep enough with wax prices. See prizm.

If a rookie class becomes like Wiggins year then you see hobby prizm is "only" $1000.

Now prizm will come out higher always so they will less meat on the bone like 19-20 NT.

Blowout raised their prices by 50% on wax just thr last two weeks. I doubt anyone is buying it at this price.

[rangeljon]

Originally Posted by GeechQuest

I think you’re looking at a possible disaster doing this.

I say this as someone who passed on 5 One and One cases at $4K a pop. On one hand, they’ve essentially doubled. On the other, who do I sell them to safely? I’ve got 3 hands, so on that one what happens when everybody buys wax to sit on it?

NT boxes from this year still have yet to really bump and they haven’t really been opened in mass quantity either.

I bought an NT case at $14,500. High buy right now on dealer site is $22,000. I think that's a bump.

It's also easier to double you money when the product is $500-$700 out of the gate as opposed to $3000-$4000.

Either way, I don't regret the $7500 jump. These things are still trending higher, with numerous breakers still offering a substantial amount.

[dlutton]

Looking at 18-19 Chronicles prices I can't blame you...the 19-20 class was loaded so I think there is good long term potential. I have a prizm retail box myself that I'm holding that I snagged at $415 a few months back.

[RogerGodahell]

Originally Posted by k13

Future wax will be a question mark as everyone is investing and hoarding but if the wax price stays low and some rookies get hot people rush to buy and more willing to open at cheap prices. Once the wax gets high it just sits getting passed from flipper to flipper.

Some retail was already bad to open at $20 let alone $400 and singles never keep enough with wax prices. See prizm.

If a rookie class becomes like Wiggins year then you see hobby prizm is "only" $1000.

Now prizm will come out higher always so they will less meat on the bone like 19-20 NT.

Blowout raised their prices by 50% on wax just thr last two weeks. I doubt anyone is buying it at this price.

That's what they all said man. Take a look back in the Optic thread from last year for good laughs. I remember Chad from Firehand no offense to him. But he said no way in hell someone would pay $4500 for a case of 2018 Optic. My how times have changed.

[RogerGodahell]

18 Prizm blasters are up to $700 a piece. Shts gone bananas

[TimBuckTwo]

I have Craigslist listings that I get alot of requests to buy as the prices push up.

What I mean is like for 2018-19 Optic Mega prices are now $700. But my listing was $550 before I could move it.

Someone was looking to buy at the 550 and flip at 700 or keep. So if you want to take a small hit on selling I think it is still there as the prices push up. Of course I want the max I can get.

Selling to Bo or his neighbor is a very good option.

[Boo]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

18 Prizm blasters are up to $700 a piece. Shts gone bananas

Gov't money and lottery tickets, nothing has changed in 50 years

[JoeAdam]

Originally Posted by RogerGodahell

18 Prizm blasters are up to $700 a piece. Shts gone bananas

Wow, I hadn't been following since I opened mine (luckily hit a Luka auto). Pretty crazy to see the $19.99 price tag from two years ago selling for $700+.

I'd also caution against anyone holding "long-term". Much easier said than done. Similar to the stock market, it takes discipline and sticking to your strategy to be successful for long periods of time. It's easy to say "I'll hold for 10 years", but in reality that's a huge portion of your life.

[boston12]

As long as there are group breakers a ton is going to be opened. I don’t see a scenario where there is an issue with product not being opened. And let’s be honest a lot of people plan to hold sealed wax and it doesn’t last long sealed as they stare at it.

[RogerGodahell]

Originally Posted by boston12

As long as there are group breakers a ton is going to be opened. I don’t see a scenario where there is an issue with product not being opened. And let’s be honest a lot of people plan to hold sealed wax and it doesn’t last long sealed as they stare at it.

A lot of it is getting dwindled down buy groups like vintage breaks. They stream basically 24/7 ripping packs and blasters, boxes, etc. Layton rips a sht ton too.