Are we in a prospect bubble? - Page 2

azbaseballfan · 11-28-2018, 12:28 PM

Prices for average prospects have doubled or tripled since I started collecting prospects in the early 2000's. I think what we are seeing is caused by the waves that huge talents like Acuna and Vlad are creating. When people witness the pay day for people who got in early on Acuna/Vlad types they get FOMO and buy up the #3-#20 organizational top prospect types. I can't find a decently priced "sleeper" pick to save my life anymore.

JoeAdam · 11-28-2018, 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by azbaseballfan

Prices for average prospects have doubled or tripled since I started collecting prospects in the early 2000's. I think what we are seeing is caused by the waves that huge talents like Acuna and Vlad are creating. When people witness the pay day for people who got in early on Acuna/Vlad types they get FOMO and buy up the #3-#20 organizational top prospect types. I can't find a decently priced "sleeper" pick to save my life anymore.

This is more the point I was trying to make. There will always be a market for the big guys. Well said.

azbaseballfan · 11-28-2018, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeAdam

This is more the point I was trying to make. There will always be a market for the big guys. Well said.

Yeah, agree that the big guys will always command top dollar. But It’s the prices that mid-talent prospects are garnering that amazes me.

fenwaykid · 11-28-2018, 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by azbaseballfan

Yeah, agree that the big guys will always command top dollar. But It’s the prices that mid-talent prospects are garnering that amazes me.

This 100%. There's an OF prospect who hit .279 last year with 9 HRs and 7 SBs in 473 ABs. His blues gems sell for over $500.

JrFinest · 11-28-2018, 03:33 PM

The hype is real. Just need to be selective on whom you go after. I missed getting in on Vlad price wise ,but acquired quite a bit of early Acuna's before the current boom.

Its a new way to collect. So many people missed out on Trout, and now everyone wants to try to get in on the next big superstar. Unfortunately this is also leading to over inflated production levels. What will most of it be worth in a decade or so? Depends on the player and how accessible the card is.

WizardofOz1982 · 11-28-2018, 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fenwaykid

This 100%. There's an OF prospect who hit .279 last year with 9 HRs and 7 SBs in 473 ABs. His blues gems sell for over $500.

Pricing is crazy. For what some people are paying for parallels of 20 year old kids who hit .280 in Low A ball last season I can buy all kinds of nice vintage of Hall of Famers.

I have a friend who just paid more for a, granted, 1/1 BGS 9.5/10 Black Wave refractor auto of a 20 year old catcher in Low A than a 2001 PSA 10 SP Authentic Pujols AU RC sale. Maybe the prospect turns into something but I know which card I'd be buying.

azbaseballfan · 11-28-2018, 03:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fenwaykid

This 100%. There's an OF prospect who hit .279 last year with 9 HRs and 7 SBs in 473 ABs. His blues gems sell for over $500.

Cristian Pache.That’s a guy that came to mind. Do people just think because he wears the same jersey he will be the next Acuna? lol

Any others that come to mind? I see a Jazz Chisholm blue gem at $336 ending today. Seems crazy to me and I’m biased towards the dbacks

hawkfandan · 11-28-2018, 12:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoeAdam

It seems like once they go pro people move on to the next shiny object. Thoughts?

Wash, rinse, repeat.

Such is the nature of prospecting.

awz50 · 11-28-2018, 04:33 PM

We are just bubbling with excitement

han soto · 11-28-2018, 04:37 PM

probubbly so.

SaveMeTheGum · 11-28-2018, 04:45 PM

I guess there is profit to be made during the "hype cycle", but it's pretty crazy. I sure wouldn't want the be the last one holding when the "next Mike Trout" turns out to be the next Delmon Young...

For any top prospect to become a perennial all-star is a long shot. Yet, the prices assume they will become the next top 2 or 3 player in the league. It's insanity -- and amusing to watch.

mlbfan10 · 11-28-2018, 05:50 PM

Go back 10 or more years, pretty crazy trend.

theflushingmets · 11-29-2018, 08:17 AM

I had no idea jazz chizholm cards were at what they were at. Time to do a little selling.

Ray27Ray52 · 11-29-2018, 08:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theflushingmets

I had no idea jazz chizholm cards were at what they were at. Time to do a little selling.

I sold 4 or 5 Jazz base chromes a few months ago for around $10 a pop. Oh well, win some you lose some I suppose.

Davis · 11-29-2018, 09:28 AM

I generally dismiss these “sky is falling” type threads...then I saw the 10-case auction prices last night for 2018 Draft.

Zauron · 11-29-2018, 09:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theflushingmets

I had no idea jazz chizholm cards were at what they were at. Time to do a little selling.

What in the world caused his price to skyrocket? Holy crap. I remember he was a guy I was thinking about getting invested in back in June, but never did.

Jaypers · 11-29-2018, 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zauron

What in the world caused his price to skyrocket? Holy crap. I remember he was a guy I was thinking about getting invested in back in June, but never did.

Impressive AFL campaign, and glowing words from KLaw certainly didn't hurt.

WalterAZ31 · 11-29-2018, 09:34 AM

people complaining about prices on middle prospects and using counting stats and batting average as why.........I cant facepalm those posts enough

theflushingmets · 11-29-2018, 01:01 PM

I was buying Chisholm autos for $5 a pop off comc last winter. That K/BB ratio is kinda sketchy and I think it’s time to maximize the investment.

Zauron · 11-29-2018, 02:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by theflushingmets

I was buying Chisholm autos for $5 a pop off comc last winter. That K/BB ratio is kinda sketchy and I think it’s time to maximize the investment.

The K/BB ratio scared me away to be honest. I would definitely sell now.

hermanotarjeta · 11-29-2018, 03:25 PM

The best prospects in chrome products used to sell for $60-$100, now the buy in prices are $300-$400. I don’t see much more of a ceiling for speculation.

rainmaker · 11-29-2018, 03:43 PM

well is it all relative? i mean if the upside of a $100 purchase was $400 and now the upside of a $400 purchase is $1600 then its an even playing field. just a sign of more $ and more action in the hobby.

hermanotarjeta · 11-29-2018, 05:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rainmaker

well is it all relative? i mean if the upside of a $100 purchase was $400 and now the upside of a $400 purchase is $1600 then its an even playing field. just a sign of more $ and more action in the hobby.

The problem is that it is not all relative. That $100 purchase in the past was for that $1600 jackpot. Nowadays, the buy in price is $300-$400 for that same $1600 jackpot. That’s how bubbles are burst.

doowopbruce · 11-29-2018, 03:44 PM

I'm not so impressed at the card prices of kids like Vlad Jr. They're getting paid millions to sign as 16 year-olds. THAT'S impressive.

SirTommyWinAlot · 11-29-2018, 03:46 PM

It's like the glass half full question:

are prospect cards overpriced or are guys like mookie betts underpriced?hmmm....

11-28-2018, 04:33 PM	#9
awz50 Member Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: New Hampshire>>>Arizona>>>>Florida Posts: 33,264 awz50	We are just bubbling with excitement __________________ Collecting Baseball Hof Autographs 248/351 Blowouts Official Red Sox face of the franchise Eduardo Rodriguez Super Collector

11-28-2018, 04:45 PM	#11
SaveMeTheGum Member Join Date: Oct 2011 Location: NH --> CA --> SC Posts: 16,514 Cardboard_Dynamite CardboardDynamite	I guess there is profit to be made during the "hype cycle", but it's pretty crazy. I sure wouldn't want the be the last one holding when the "next Mike Trout" turns out to be the next Delmon Young... For any top prospect to become a perennial all-star is a long shot. Yet, the prices assume they will become the next top 2 or 3 player in the league. It's insanity -- and amusing to watch. __________________ Pay fast. Ship fast. Deal with people honestly. IG: CardboardDynamite

11-28-2018, 05:50 PM	#12
mlbfan10 Member Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: Myrtle Beach, SC Posts: 4,666 supermario420 mlbfan10	Go back 10 or more years, pretty crazy trend. __________________ Go Braves!

11-29-2018, 08:17 AM	#13
theflushingmets Member Join Date: Jan 2014 Location: Richmond VA Posts: 2,014 Rob_digital_nyc Theflushingmets516	I had no idea jazz chizholm cards were at what they were at. Time to do a little selling. __________________ Always looking to add more to my Mets collection. Currently looking for high end cards of the more obscure players to put on a Mets uni in the bigs.

11-29-2018, 01:01 PM	#19
theflushingmets Member Join Date: Jan 2014 Location: Richmond VA Posts: 2,014 Rob_digital_nyc Theflushingmets516	I was buying Chisholm autos for $5 a pop off comc last winter. That K/BB ratio is kinda sketchy and I think it’s time to maximize the investment. __________________ Always looking to add more to my Mets collection. Currently looking for high end cards of the more obscure players to put on a Mets uni in the bigs.

11-28-2018, 12:28 PM	#1
azbaseballfan Member Join Date: Jun 2017 Location: Flagstaff, AZ Posts: 2,038 bowmanbowser	Prices for average prospects have doubled or tripled since I started collecting prospects in the early 2000's. I think what we are seeing is caused by the waves that huge talents like Acuna and Vlad are creating. When people witness the pay day for people who got in early on Acuna/Vlad types they get FOMO and buy up the #3-#20 organizational top prospect types. I can't find a decently priced "sleeper" pick to save my life anymore.

11-28-2018, 03:33 PM	#5
JrFinest Member Join Date: Sep 2016 Location: Ohio Posts: 3,117 jrfinest_cards	The hype is real. Just need to be selective on whom you go after. I missed getting in on Vlad price wise ,but acquired quite a bit of early Acuna's before the current boom. Its a new way to collect. So many people missed out on Trout, and now everyone wants to try to get in on the next big superstar. Unfortunately this is also leading to over inflated production levels. What will most of it be worth in a decade or so? Depends on the player and how accessible the card is.

11-28-2018, 04:37 PM	#10
han soto Banned - PBM Join Date: Nov 2018 Location: moms basement Posts: 244	probubbly so.

11-29-2018, 09:28 AM	#15
Davis Member Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: Denver Posts: 6,514	I generally dismiss these “sky is falling” type threads...then I saw the 10-case auction prices last night for 2018 Draft.

11-29-2018, 09:34 AM	#18
WalterAZ31 Banned Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: Glendale, AZ Posts: 8,268	people complaining about prices on middle prospects and using counting stats and batting average as why.........I cant facepalm those posts enough

11-29-2018, 03:25 PM	#21
hermanotarjeta Member Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 21,054	The best prospects in chrome products used to sell for $60-$100, now the buy in prices are $300-$400. I don’t see much more of a ceiling for speculation.

11-29-2018, 03:43 PM	#22
rainmaker Member Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 2,824 thewescoast	well is it all relative? i mean if the upside of a $100 purchase was $400 and now the upside of a $400 purchase is $1600 then its an even playing field. just a sign of more $ and more action in the hobby. __________________ https://www.flickr.com/photos/152850287@N08/albums

11-29-2018, 03:44 PM	#24
doowopbruce Member Join Date: Oct 2018 Location: Long Island Posts: 2,024 doowopbruce	I'm not so impressed at the card prices of kids like Vlad Jr. They're getting paid millions to sign as 16 year-olds. THAT'S impressive.

11-29-2018, 03:46 PM	#25
SirTommyWinAlot Banned Join Date: Jun 2016 Location: Gillette Stadium/Foxboro Posts: 6,545	It's like the glass half full question: are prospect cards overpriced or are guys like mookie betts underpriced?hmmm....