2018 rookie class is not the 2017 rookie class

[CardBoard4Life]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I feel like a lot of the guys on the 2017 draft have a lot to prove.

Sure, Tatum and Mitchell look like future HOFs. And Ball, Kuzma, Hart, Collins, Markkannen and Allen could end up being All-Star or, at least, have a decent career in the league.

But a lot of the hyped guys like Jackson, Smith, Isaac, Fultz, Fox, Monk or Ntilikina are gonna end up flopping. Like, out of the NBA after their first contract kind of thing. What have driven this class is that those guys were given a lot of minutes and produced numbers - but their advanced stats show there's still tons of works to do.

Dennis Smith Jr. ends up flopping? I don't know about that.

[clipperboy24]

Originally Posted by smalltown

I've been talking with a lot of people - excited with Contenders coming out. I'm a bit shocked at how much people are over rating this years rookies. I mean it happens every year, with the excitement of new products. And to be fair there are some compelling rookies. But i think a lot of people are basing their projections on last years class.

The 2017 draft was crazy deep. We haven't seen this many strong players come out of a draft in a long time. Top to bottom we had starters and playoff contributors - rounded out with others who look to be significant players for years to come.

The 2018 draft looks to be more like the Historical norm in terms of talent. Where half or more of the first round picks will likely be out of the league by the end of their rookie contract.

What do you all think?

It’s 1998 (2017) versus 1999 (2018) again. I think this year’s class will have more overall all star appearances but there might not be a transcendent superstar in the bunch. Ayton, Doncic, SGA, JJJ, Wendel Carter, Bamba, Knox all look like really good players and could be all stars but I don’t know if any have true superstar potential

[smalltown]

Originally Posted by bmc398

For Real?

Yes. I'm not saying there is no star power in this draft. I love Doncic and a few others. But this draft is not deep. It's very top heavy. 2017 had guys in the second round who were getting substantial minutes - i just don't see that kind of depth with 2018.

Originally Posted by bmc398

you had NO CLUE who Donovan Mitchell was before last November.

Did i think he would break out like he did? No. Did i know about him before last November? Absolutely. I was actually hoping the Knicks took him at 8 and was shocked he dropped. Had that discussion with many people.[/QUOTE]

[smalltown]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

But a lot of the hyped guys like Jackson, Smith, Isaac, Fultz, Fox, Monk or Ntilikina are gonna end up flopping. Like, out of the NBA after their first contract kind of thing.

So far off. The only one of those who i question wether they'll be a flop is Fultz. The rest will all be in the league for years.

[daeve]

Originally Posted by Siberian13

Also, does anyone in the southern states like Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina buy basketball? Seems like all baseball guys around me.

I'm pretty close to 50-50 baseball-hoop, got out of football years ago, I don't even watch it anymore.

[daeve]

Originally Posted by CardBoard4Life

Dennis Smith Jr. ends up flopping? I don't know about that.

Worth noting that half of the guys he lists as being potential all-stars are Lakers, so probably not an unbiased source there

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by daeve

Worth noting that half of the guys he lists as being potential all-stars are Lakers, so probably not an unbiased source there

It's more guys who had decent advanced stats on their first season. Personally, I think Lonzo might become a 1 or 2 time All-Star and Kuzma/Hart will end up being good/decent role players.

My point is, every year you see young guys with bad advanced numbers like last season. And most of those guys end up being out of the league/role players/average starters with a one or two exceptions. However, this past season was different because a lot of those guys put up big numbers despite their efficiency being bad.

[CoolG]

17-18 > 18-19
IMO 17 draft will end up being amazing long term

[gomiamigo]

This draft class is clearly above average with a guy like Doncic joining, Ayton, and the potential of guys at 19 like Lonnie.

Having said that, it's definitely below last year at second glance. But Ball and Fultz haven't panned out yet, although if Fultz is even 80% of what he was in college he'll be the 6th man for the Sixers.

[daeve]

Originally Posted by gomiamigo

This draft class is clearly above average with a guy like Doncic joining, Ayton, and the potential of guys at 19 like Lonnie.

Having said that, it's definitely below last year at second glance. But Ball and Fultz haven't panned out yet, although if Fultz is even 80% of what he was in college he'll be the 6th man for the Sixers.

Typically with the #1 pick you're aiming higher than a 6th man though...

[k13]

2017 is overrated just give it five years.

[Giantrobot]

Yeah, I don’t think the 2017 class is gonna be as amazing as you think down the line. It’s gonna be the usual 1-2 star/superstars, and a few good starter-level guys. There are several guys that are hyped right now that are not gonna live up to expectation.

[cardmole]

Originally Posted by Giantrobot

Yeah, I don’t think the 2017 class is gonna be as amazing as you think down the line. It’s gonna be the usual 1-2 star/superstars, and a few good starter-level guys. There are several guys that are hyped right now that are not gonna live up to expectation.

This is true for almost every year. It's hard to find 2 HOF type players in one year. For cards, the double RC year 2011/2012 may be the last time that has happened.