Can Starlin Castro reach 3000 hits?

[Kcelelli]

He'll reach 2000 but highly doubt he makes to 3K with the type of player he is

[Ashieft]

Originally Posted by CoolG

He's putting up some nice textbook stats in 2017
11/40/.325
2nd in hits

This is his 8th season... he has been worth 13.8 WAR over that span. That's like 1.7 war a year. Let's calm down on this 58 game sample. It's a very small sample.

His BABIP is nearly 40 points over his career average and his ISO is almost 50 points over his career average.

To this point in his career he has been the epitome of league average year ina bad year out.

Not that is a bad thing.... but a 58 game outburst doesn't mean he is all of a sudden some hall of fame player.

[CoolG]

Originally Posted by Ashieft

This is his 8th season... he has been worth 13.8 WAR over that span. That's like 1.7 war a year. Let's calm down on this 58 game sample. It's a very small sample.

His BABIP is nearly 40 points over his career average and his ISO is almost 50 points over his career average.

To this point in his career he has been the epitome of league average year ina bad year out.

Not that is a bad thing.... but a 58 game outburst doesn't mean heis all of a sudden some hall of fame player.

I'm well aware of everything you just posted thx
Title of the thread was can he reach 3000 hits
I was merely pointing out that he's been productive this year thus far and still just 27

[Wiseguy917]

Originally Posted by CoolG

I'm well aware of everything you just posted thx
Title of the thread was can he reach 3000 hits
I was merely pointing out that he's been productive this year thus far and still just 27

If he can avoid injury, yes he will get there. He'll hit the half way point next year at 28 years old.

[ThoseBackPages]

i voted yes

[bwalter1]

He could but I think he will end at around 2500. Assuming he averages 150ish a year in 10 years he would still need another 2 seasons at that production. I think the problem is that he is not a player that will stay relevant for the next 12 years there will be to many new stars emerging and he won't be still on the Yankees at that point. He will fall through the cracks and miss it by a 5-600 hits.

[Ashieft]

Originally Posted by CoolG

I'm well aware of everything you just posted thx
Title of the thread was can he reach 3000 hits
I was merely pointing out that he's been productive this year thus far and still just 27

My point is if he has been league average to below league average (as a 20 year old) where is he going to find a job in his mid to late 30s?

Again screams stat compiler if he remains as is and latches on with some below 500 club to be a warm body.

[CoolG]

Originally Posted by Ashieft

My point is if he has been league average to below league average (as a 20 year old) where is he going to find a job in his mid to late 30s?

Again screams stat compiler if he remains as is and latches on with some below 500 club to be a warm body.

He's been in the All-Star game three different times and the top 10 four different times in league hits (lead league one year) Sorry I don't classify him as a scrub or below league average. I don't think He'll have any problem getting regular work the next five years. After that we shall see.
All this at age 27 and looks like he'll be an all star again this year

[ntgm37]

People have been down on him for years, and yet, he is still raking. I say be is close but doesn't make it.

[Ottomatic]

Originally Posted by ntgm37

People have been down on him for years, and yet, he is still raking. I say be is close but doesn't make it.

Career 98 wRC+, 2% worse than a league average hitter yet he's been raking. Awesome to know.

[rngrdanny22]

His volume of hits in his first few years directly correlates with his number of at-bats. He even led the league three consecutive seasons.

As he ages, he'll likely drop in the order. If his average stays the same, but has fewer at-bats, he's not going to make it.

[Ottomatic]

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

His volume of hits in his first few years directly correlates with his number of at-bats. He even led the league three consecutive seasons.

As he ages, he'll likely drop in the order. If his average stays the same, but has fewer at-bats, he's not going to make it.

I mean he's had years where he is legitimately good at getting hits. He has a quality average. The problem is he doesn't walk or hit for much power for his career so the total package is about an average hitter. Also an average to below average defender too, so maybe an average player at best.

I've said it before, but I'm rooting for him to get 3000 hits because I think it would be fascinating. 3000 hits with a below average slash line and mediocre defense, maaaaybe 25-30 career WAR.

[Skipscards]

Originally Posted by bwalter1

He could but I think he will end at around 2500. Assuming he averages 150ish a year in 10 years he would still need another 2 seasons at that production. I think the problem is that he is not a player that will stay relevant for the next 12 years there will be to many new stars emerging and he won't be still on the Yankees at that point. He will fall through the cracks and miss it by a 5-600 hits.

This is the most likely scenario. 3,000 hits is incredibly difficult. Interestingly enough, as a middle infielder he doesn't necessarily need to get to 3,000 to enter borderline HOFer status. His problem won't be his offense it will be his defense. He's not nearly as fast as he was when he entered the league and his glove has been ordinary for a while now.

His most comparables at the same age has a few HOFers, borderline HOFers, and flameouts:
Jim Fregosi (928.5)
Granny Hamner (921.1)
Alan Trammell (915.7)
Zoilo Versalles (914.2)
Edgar Renteria (912.6)
Bill Mazeroski (910.1) *
Travis Jackson (898.5) *
Jimmy Rollins (897.0)
Robin Yount (896.5) *
Roberto Alomar (891.3) *

That's a pretty wide range of possibilities.

[ntgm37]

Originally Posted by Ottomatic

Career 98 wRC+, 2% worse than a league average hitter yet he's been raking. Awesome to know.

I forgot that all of the above was the only way to determine if one is raking. Awesome to know.

Dude keeps getting hits was my main point. This is a thread about said dude and if he would get 3k hits....maybe you should start a thread about the other stuff.

[CoolG]

Originally Posted by Ottomatic

I mean he's had years where he is legitimately good at getting hits. He has a quality average. The problem is he doesn't walk or hit for much power for his career so the total package is about an average hitter. Also an average to below average defender too, so maybe an average player at best.

I've said it before, but I'm rooting for him to get 3000 hits because I think it would be fascinating. 3000 hits with a below average slash line and mediocre defense, maaaaybe 25-30 career WAR.

Goose Gossage disagrees
analytics and people follow them ruined the game

Stat nerds: The game is becoming a freaking joke because of the nerds who are running it,” he said. “I’ll tell you what has happened, these guys played rotisserie baseball at Harvard or wherever the [expletive] they went, and they thought they figured the [expletive] game out. They don’t know [expletive].

[Ottomatic]

Originally Posted by CoolG

Goose Gossage disagrees
analytics and people follow them ruined the game

Stat nerds: The game is becoming a freaking joke because of the nerds who are running it,” he said. “I’ll tell you what has happened, these guys played rotisserie baseball at Harvard or wherever the [expletive] they went, and they thought they figured the [expletive] game out. They don’t know [expletive].

Stats don't discriminate player to player lol. He's not suddenly a different player if stats go away.

[Ottomatic]

Originally Posted by ntgm37

I forgot that all of the above was the only way to determine if one is raking. Awesome to know.

Dude keeps getting hits was my main point. This is a thread about said dude and if he would get 3k hits....maybe you should start a thread about the other stuff.

Getting hits alone doesn't equal raking though, ask Ben Revere. He's having a good season, I'm just saying the total package for his career is about a league average hitter. Not worth getting upset about, it's the truth.

[THE(NEXT)LEVEL]

There are too many Starlin Castro threads on the first page of the forum....

[CoolG]

Originally Posted by Ottomatic

Stats don't discriminate player to player lol. He's not suddenly a different player if stats go away.

Relax it was a joke go back to your rotisserie game now
Just like the myth of pitch framing lol
It's called bad umpiring

[Ottomatic]

Originally Posted by CoolG

Relax it was a joke go back to your rotisserie game now
Just like the myth of pitch framing lol
It's called bad umpiring

Yeah and drawing walks is all the pitchers fault, not a hitter skill.

And I don't like rotisserie chicken.

[ntgm37]

Originally Posted by Ottomatic

Getting hits alone doesn't equal raking though, ask Ben Revere. He's having a good season, I'm just saying the total package for his career is about a league average hitter. Not worth getting upset about, it's the truth.

Raking to me is getting hits. Starlin gets a lot of hits. The thread was about whether or not he might get 3,000 of them, not a topic about his war, slugging, walks, ops, hall of fame chances and defense. I'm not upset, just made a point about his hits and you felt the need to be a smart a$$.