Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.

[pewe]

Originally Posted by dream34

-His TC Refractor will be multiples of his NNO (though the base TC will still trail the NNO)

On rarity, that Refactor has a print run ~10x smaller, so if it isn't more, than demand is really off for the chrome product

[JeHHH]

Originally Posted by dream34

Things always change. I always try to take the long term view on these. If Trout (or Acuna) had a Topps Chrome version of their Flagship, no doubt that Chrome (and it's Refractors) would be the card to get. As mentioned a few times in various other threads, Baseball is unlike other sports in that key RCs have always come from different sets for different players. The NNO Flagship is a no doubt cool modern RC card, but it does have a Chrome version (unlike Trout & Acuna). It'll be interesting to watch this for sure. As the NNO goes, so will the TC. And vice versa.

Originally Posted by dream34

I'll call my predictions now on Vladdy:

-Vladdy's most sought after Holy Grail RC (think Sapphire for Acuna) will be the Mystery Series 1 Autograph - Just too perfect a card complete with the "Series 1" on the back.
-His TC Refractor will be multiples of his NNO (though the base TC will still trail the NNO)

Fwiw, there were a lot of the above comments last year in the Acuna thread around this time when I mentioned that a certain $150-200 Chrome Bat Down would be Acuna's main RC and eventually more than his BCA.

Interesting take - I wouldn't be surprised if we look back at this a year from now and realize how accurate this is.

I think the NNO will hold value over the refractors though. It will be close. The PSA 10 NNO's will be interesting to watch given the raw condition that most of the NNO's are in.

Almost all I have seen have a soft top right corner.

BGS 10 refractor just got $117 at auction. PSA 10 NNO's are getting close to the $100 mark on their own.

[dmanrico]

Originally Posted by pewe

Print run of Series 2 NNO >= TC base

So at minimum, from a supply standpoint, it is possible... now demand... who knows

I would say a PSA10 NNO is harder than a PSA10 TC base, so perhaps in graded cards you'd say NNO will be preferred / more expensive

This is a good point and definitely needs to be factored in.

[JeHHH]

Originally Posted by dream34

Sapphires are about 1050-1100 print run & pretty fairly priced. Chrome parallels are undervalued IMO.

Print run of 1050-1100 Sapphire PSA 10 = $579 (auction)

Topps Chrome Blue refractor /150 PSA 10 = $147 (auction)

The disparity in value is crazy. You would think the blue refractor would sell for a lot more being that it is a traditional color and matches his uniform.

[dream34]

Originally Posted by JeHHH

The PSA 10 NNO's will be interesting to watch given the raw condition that most of the NNO's are in.

Originally Posted by dmanrico

This is a good point and definitely needs to be factored in.

While I do agree that the NNO will be harder to grade, take a look at the PSA POPs on the NNO. It'll surprise you.

[JeHHH]

Originally Posted by dream34

While I do agree that the NNO will be harder to grade, take a look at the PSA POPs on the NNO. It'll surprise you.

PSA 9s = 862
PSA 10 = 1,376

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by dream34

I'll call my predictions now on Vladdy:



-Vladdy's most sought after Holy Grail RC (think Sapphire for Acuna) will be the Mystery Series 1 Autograph - Just too perfect a card complete with the "Series 1" on the back.

-His TC Refractor will be multiples of his NNO (though the base TC will still trail the NNO)



Fwiw, there were a lot of the above comments last year in the Acuna thread around this time when I mentioned that a certain $150-200 Chrome Bat Down would be Acuna's main RC and eventually more than his BCA.

How many Mystery’s do you own? While I think they are cool and will be an important card, I don’t see it being the grail.

Most people are not going to be concerned with how many NNO were printed. I know it’s 5x the pr of the pants down card, but it will always be compared to the Acuna. Plus it’s his actual true RC card. And it’s packed pulled/obtainable. Everyone was upset that ‘19 Sapphire was printed 3x+ compared to ‘18 but the prices keep going up.

Don’t over think this guys!


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[pewe]

Originally Posted by JeHHH

Print run of 1050-1100 Sapphire PSA 10 = $579 (auction)

Topps Chrome Blue refractor /150 PSA 10 = $147 (auction)

The disparity in value is crazy. You would think the blue refractor would sell for a lot more being that it is a traditional color and matches his uniform.

I feel like in Sapphire we've discovered, at least in the short term, a "Giffen Good"... i.e., where demand rises with supply, as opposed to the opposite... kind of strange economic scenario

but somewhat self fulfilling with hype... will be interesting to see if it can be maintained longer term, because as you say, if you collect chrome, and want his jersey color, the blue are 8x rarer... I know which I'd stock up on

[dmanrico]

Originally Posted by dream34

While I do agree that the NNO will be harder to grade, take a look at the PSA POPs on the NNO. It'll surprise you.

Understood, but this is being driven purely by economics (and buyer demand). A NNO can be purchased for ~$20 and a PSA 10 can get you north of $75. You'll get people grading a card all day long with this spread.

A TC Base will cost you $3 to $5 (including shipping which is the majority of cost for this card) but can only be resold in a PSA 10 at ~$20. You'll get very few cards graded with this spread.

[dream34]

Originally Posted by SupermanBrandon

How many Mystery’s do you own? While I think they are cool and will be an important card, I don’t see it being the grail.

Most people are not going to be concerned with how many NNO were printed. I know it’s 5x the pr of the pants down card, but it will always be compared to the Acuna. Plus it’s his actual true RC card. And it’s packed pulled/obtainable. Everyone was upset that ‘19 Sapphire was printed 3x+ compared to ‘18 but the prices keep going up.

Don’t over think this guys!


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Same exact words used last year when I posted about Acuna also!

On the Mystery Auto - Whatever the NNO does the Mystery will be it's high high end version. Having "Series 1" on the card back is a huge thing. It's technically his only Flagship Series 1 Card.

Think things through, think long term. Buy wisely guys.

[dream34]

Originally Posted by pewe

I feel like in Sapphire we've discovered, at least in the short term, a "Giffen Good"... i.e., where demand rises with supply, as opposed to the opposite... kind of strange economic scenario

but somewhat self fulfilling with hype... will be interesting to see if it can be maintained longer term, because as you say, if you collect chrome, and want his jersey color, the blue are 8x rarer... I know which I'd stock up on

It's not so much I think the Sapphire is overpriced, you will always get people comparing to Acuna prices. Rising tide floats all boats. I think the Sapphire will definitely bring up the limited Chromes in the long run.

[LVDan]

Imo it’s both
Sapphire 2019’s are overvalued
Tc color is undervalued
The s2 “Sp” tag on NNO will ride Ronnies wave, even at a much bigger PR. Not to bat down level but similar steam.


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[dream34]

Originally Posted by dmanrico

Understood, but this is being driven purely by economics (and buyer demand). A NNO can be purchased for ~$20 and a PSA 10 can get you north of $75. You'll get people grading a card all day long with this spread.

A TC Base will cost you $3 to $5 (including shipping which is the majority of cost for this card) but can only be resold in a PSA 10 at ~$20. You'll get very few cards graded with this spread.

It's not so much NNO against the TC Base. It's the fact that you can buy a Raw Refractor for the same price as a Raw NNO. I do think that will be corrected within the year. PSA 10 vs PSA 10 I think the NNO & Refractor will be closer than it is now. All this of course hinges on Vladdy performing.

[SupermanBrandon]

Originally Posted by dream34

Same exact words used last year when I posted about Acuna also!



On the Mystery Auto - Whatever the NNO does the Mystery will be it's high high end version. Having "Series 1" on the card back is a huge thing. It's technically his only Flagship Series 1 Card.



Think things through, think long term. Buy wisely guys.

All good points. The biggest point should be, buy it all. You won’t be sorry...especially at the prices of this off-season and now. Today’s prices will feel like a bargain bin in the future.


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[wscws2008]

Just got in a random spot in Break Kings and hit a 2017 Bowman chrome draft refractor BGS black label. Heading to the Vladito PC.

On a side note, glad to see some prices went down. I think I have a very nice PC thus far but stopped at Archives because of pricing.


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[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by wscws2008

Just got in a random spot in Break Kings and hit a 2017 Bowman chrome draft refractor BGS black label. Heading to the Vladito PC.

On a side note, glad to see some prices went down. I think I have a very nice PC thus far but stopped at Archives because of pricing.


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LOVE IT!

[mwash1983]

Find is comical that his 3D card is under priced IMO

[ThoseBackPages]

Originally Posted by mwash1983

Find is comical that his 3D card is under priced IMO

just like the 2018s

for a set with zero parallels, it sure gets shunted

does not help that its a card that will never be appreciated online

[lauriontj]

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

just like the 2018s

for a set with zero parallels, it sure gets shunted

does not help that its a card that will never be appreciated online

3D could be its own set. Imagine pulling a Gold 3D Rookie /50. Or a Red /5.

Ohhh, I just got the chills...

[Triple B]

Originally Posted by LVDan

Sapphire 2019’s are overvalued

I think they may be undervalued when you think about it...

- Centering issues are rampant. Top to bottom especially.
- Damaged backs. Many Vlads have this issue.
- The dreaded "black line" running across the middle of some cards.

Finding a Gem Vlad Sapphire isn't going to be easy.

[80pc]

Originally Posted by Triple B

I think they may be undervalued when you think about it...

- Centering issues are rampant. Top to bottom especially.
- Damaged backs. Many Vlads have this issue.
- The dreaded "black line" running across the middle of some cards.

Finding a Gem Vlad Sapphire isn't going to be easy.

According to PSA it's gemming at 86% rate. Seems good although it could be low for sapphire historically, I didn't check the data.

[Wrigs37]

Originally Posted by Triple B

I think they may be undervalued when you think about it...

- Centering issues are rampant. Top to bottom especially.
- Damaged backs. Many Vlads have this issue.
- The dreaded "black line" running across the middle of some cards.

Finding a Gem Vlad Sapphire isn't going to be easy.

This is news to me. I knew about the Vlad crease back issue, but still don’t know about how common it is. Sounds like Topps is replacing those when asked. Is the centering that bad on the Sapphires?

[Trueblue]

Originally Posted by JeHHH

PSA 9s = 862
PSA 10 = 1,376

I think it's also a factor that a ton never make it to grading since the nom-gems have obvious corner dings due to darker backgrounds - even a total grading novice could catch it. The pop ratio does not reflect the total spread of condition, imo

[80pc]

Originally Posted by Trueblue

I think it's also a factor that a ton never make it to grading since the nom-gems have obvious corner dings due to darker backgrounds - even a total grading novice could catch it. The pop ratio does not reflect the total spread of condition, imo

That's a good point and one I didn't fully consider on the Sapphire grades. I'd be curious just how many people fine tooth their submissions. I didn't really until I started sending in a fair amount. It's easy to kinda just send it in on hope at least until reality sets in after a few submissions.

[Triple B]

Originally Posted by 80pc

That's a good point and one I didn't fully consider on the Sapphire grades. I'd be curious just how many people fine tooth their submissions. I didn't really until I started sending in a fair amount. It's easy to kinda just send it in on hope at least until reality sets in after a few submissions.

At least three cards weren't fine toothed...there's a PSA 4, 5 and 6 in the pop report.