The Official Stock Market Thread

[Vintagecollect]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

A recession might not be enough to get the market lower than the October lows. Big tech drives the market, and they are positioned very well to weather any storm. Their devices and services are needs. They are sitting on more cash than in any other sector. They have bloated expenses that can be cut without too much harm. And outside of AAPL, they’ve already been beaten up badly from the fall 2021 highs. So there are a lot of positives to find, even if the there’s a US or global recession, which I think happens in the back half of the year when federal student loan payments resume. That should be enough to finally force consumers to stop spending the money they already don’t have.

I dont think Big tech should drive the market. It's a ruse for new investors to jump in and miss big gains. Value, call me a dinosaur! i DO have large positions in Ryld and Qyld, as well as jepq as I dont want to miss the run up. I think tech will be sideways for a few years with lower and lower eps as well as restricted access/higher rates to funding

[finfangfan]

AI crashed yesterday but IONQ climbed over $7 for the first time since August 2022… it also looks like it is advancing further on premarket this morning…

[KhalDrogo]

Added more GOOGL Monday. Sold AAPL yesterday. Bought TSLA at the open today.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by finfangfan

AI crashed yesterday but IONQ climbed over $7 for the first time since August 2022… it also looks like it is advancing further on premarket this morning…

I'm always intrigued by this one. Based on what I looked at, they don't have a real product. It's not quantum by any means.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by finfangfan

What fertilizer stocks are you looking at?

As far as next-gen food, i agree that’s likely going to be an ongoing concern in the decades ahead. I invested in Appharvest (APPH) which is a vertical farming company but that one hasn’t done too well for me.

CF, MOS, a super small cap BIOX is really interesting.

[Braswell10]

What are your guys’ thoughts on ARKK? It’s down 50% on the year and -300% from all time highs. I think I am going to slowly add this into my long hold portfolio. Once tech makes a comeback, and Tesla turns things around, this could easily be a win.

Although, I am still weary on some of the companies that make up this etf.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Braswell10

What are your guys’ thoughts on ARKK? It’s down 50% on the year and -300% from all time highs. I think I am going to slowly add this into my long hold portfolio. Once tech makes a comeback, and Tesla turns things around, this could easily be a win.

Although, I am still weary on some of the companies that make up this etf.

God no. Seems your only motivation for buying it is that it’s down a lot.

[Jay9Suited]

Originally Posted by Braswell10

What are your guys’ thoughts on ARKK? It’s down 50% on the year and -300% from all time highs. I think I am going to slowly add this into my long hold portfolio. Once tech makes a comeback, and Tesla turns things around, this could easily be a win.

Although, I am still weary on some of the companies that make up this etf.

ooof plz avoid. I'd recommend QQQ.

[xbignick]

Originally Posted by Braswell10

What are your guys’ thoughts on ARKK? It’s down 50% on the year and -300% from all time highs. I think I am going to slowly add this into my long hold portfolio. Once tech makes a comeback, and Tesla turns things around, this could easily be a win.

Although, I am still weary on some of the companies that make up this etf.

Cathie Woods ridiculousness aside, why not go through the holdings and pull out what interests you (like Tesla), thus avoiding her high fees and the uneasiness of those companies you're weary of. Buy those directly or find a similar ETF with overlap.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Think this rally stalls pretty soon. 418 and 431 for the next key SPY levels. I like good companies that have been beaten up badly here, like GOOL and PFE. Provide huge potential upside with good downside protection. Sitting on 45% cash. Account is at an ATH, and up 22.6% YTD.

GOOGL hitting a 6 month high today.

[Braswell10]

I ended up liquidating a majority of my portfolio after this rally. Going to step back and identify 6 or 7 stocks to buy/hold through 2023. This rally has to end at some point.

[Braswell10]

Originally Posted by Braswell10

I ended up liquidating a majority of my portfolio after this rally. Going to step back and identify 6 or 7 stocks to buy/hold through 2023. This rally has to end at some point.

I’m thinking a mix of:
Amd
Blk
Tsla
Googl
Amzn
Qqq

[KhalDrogo]

I think we’re going to see SPY at ~430 before the rally off the October lows gets tested. The longer the recession wait gets drawn out, the better the market is going to take it. Plenty of time to continue gradual cost cutting. Consumer credit worries me the most. Especially with student loan repayments set to resume no later than this summer. That’s going to be a brutal hit for a lot of people.

[Cavaliercards]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

I think we’re going to see SPY at ~430 before the rally off the October lows gets tested. The longer the recession wait gets drawn out, the better the market is going to take it. Plenty of time to continue gradual cost cutting. Consumer credit worries me the most. Especially with student loan repayments set to resume no later than this summer. That’s going to be a brutal hit for a lot of people.

Can the admin not pause again?

[Jed Clampett]

Originally Posted by Braswell10

I’m thinking a mix of:
Amd
Blk
Tsla
Googl
Amzn
Qqq

Winner

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by Cavaliercards

Can the admin not pause again?

Nope. This is it. Once SCOTUS decides on the forgiveness, the repayments will resume. I have not been able to find anywhere a monthly dollar amount of federal student loans anticipated to be due. But there are ~45 million bowers, and years old monthly payments averaged ~$400. Do the math. That is a ton of money leaving the consumer.

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Nope. This is it. Once SCOTUS decides on the forgiveness, the repayments will resume. I have not been able to find anywhere a monthly dollar amount of federal student loans anticipated to be due. But there are ~45 million bowers, and years old monthly payments averaged ~$400. Do the math. That is a ton of money leaving the consumer.

Wait. Are you saying that people weren't using that money to pay down zero interest debt? That was the entire play here.

[KhalDrogo]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

Wait. Are you saying that people weren't using that money to pay down zero interest debt? That was the entire play here.

That would imply fiscal responsibility, which most Americans do not have.

And remember that all these months counted toward PSLF whether you paid or not. PSLF doesn’t always work out as intended for the borrower. I didn’t make a payment, but I’m at my 10 years this fall. Imagine all the people who are just a few years in, didn’t pay, but will go on and take a non-qualifying job before the 10 years.

[GeechQuest]

Originally Posted by KhalDrogo

Nope. This is it. Once SCOTUS decides on the forgiveness, the repayments will resume. I have not been able to find anywhere a monthly dollar amount of federal student loans anticipated to be due. But there are ~45 million bowers, and years old monthly payments averaged ~$400. Do the math. That is a ton of money leaving the consumer.

$1.7T overhang. Now obviously that isn’t at play and due at once, but it’s going to further tighten the already tight purse strings.

Jerome Powell said at the last FOMC that they’ll let credit tightening take the place of rate hikes. Lending is already drying up in spots of the economy.

I’m in the camp that this will eventually take out the October lows. I still remember the summer rally coming off of the June lows and the narrative being “June was the bottom”.

Positioning is key. It feels like the market can digest news quickly and stay buoyed, but the current structure of the market can have one piece of “left field” news drop us fast. I suspect the next -3/4% day actually becomes 6/7%. The next circuit breaker day will take us down 10/11% instead of 7/8%. Those days will eventually happen, and the current structure of trading realized volatility instead of implied volatility will blow out a few people.

[Josh611]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

Wait. Are you saying that people weren't using that money to pay down zero interest debt? That was the entire play here.

I believe I saw a statistic that 98% of borrowers did not pay on their loans since the pause started. I'm not surprised at all.

I am one of them, but I will also pay the loan off if they ever start accruing interest again. But until then, there is no point in paying on it when I can at least earn some interest on the cash.

But yes, this will be a huge missed opportunity for so many people

[Brobocop]

Originally Posted by Josh611

I believe I saw a statistic that 98% of borrowers did not pay on their loans since the pause started. I'm not surprised at all.

I am one of them, but I will also pay the loan off if they ever start accruing interest again. But until then, there is no point in paying on it when I can at least earn some interest on the cash.

But yes, this will be a huge missed opportunity for so many people

Same boat here. I’m more shocked that 2% have been paying on their loans since the pause started.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by Josh611

I believe I saw a statistic that 98% of borrowers did not pay on their loans since the pause started. I'm not surprised at all.

I am one of them, but I will also pay the loan off if they ever start accruing interest again. But until then, there is no point in paying on it when I can at least earn some interest on the cash.

But yes, this will be a huge missed opportunity for so many people

Holy crap. If this is true...If this is true, these are college-educated (in theory) people that chose to wrong themselves.

These are the same people that believe the student loan system/cost of college is a scam made to bury people in debt. While there is some validity, these folks did it to themselves this time.

Fool me once, shame on you.


I owe money on my student loans. My thought is that I pay enough in taxes and my interest rate is fixed at a rate that is lower than what I will earn in the market. I made payments during the moritorium. But there is no sense in paying them off when they get discharged if I die. Why tow-truck my estate like that?

[JMarchand1981]

Originally Posted by Josh611

I believe I saw a statistic that 98% of borrowers did not pay on their loans since the pause started. I'm not surprised at all.

I am one of them, but I will also pay the loan off if they ever start accruing interest again. But until then, there is no point in paying on it when I can at least earn some interest on the cash.

But yes, this will be a huge missed opportunity for so many people

The number is 18%. 18% made payments during the pause. That's 1/5.
According to: https://fortune.com/2022/03/22/18-pe...nt-loan-pause/

This comment may get edited/deleted because Fortune is outside of the Blowout network. It's as close to the sun as a I can fly.

Insidehighered then has a stats that states, "A survey of over 23,000 borrowers from the Student Debt Crisis Center in February found that when payments were set to resume in May, 93 percent of borrowers were not prepared".


Someone somewhere is lying. 18% made payment, but 93% are not ready.

[KhalDrogo]

That 18% is probably a bucket of people who made any payments during the period. Could have been making payments in 2020-21, and can longer afford to do so. The great wealth divide is about to grow even larger. Can’t do anything but look out for yourself.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by JMarchand1981

The number is 18%. 18% made payments during the pause. That's 1/5.
According to: https://fortune.com/2022/03/22/18-pe...nt-loan-pause/

This comment may get edited/deleted because Fortune is outside of the Blowout network. It's as close to the sun as a I can fly.

Insidehighered then has a stats that states, "A survey of over 23,000 borrowers from the Student Debt Crisis Center in February found that when payments were set to resume in May, 93 percent of borrowers were not prepared".


Someone somewhere is lying. 18% made payment, but 93% are not ready.

Just playing devils advocate here. I have private loans so I didn't have the option to stop paying but I sure as hell would have if given the opportunity.

If you could generate yield and weren't accruing interest why would you pay down the loans?