2016 bowman pricing predictions

[rutgersjpm]

Maybe I'm just a pessimist. My point is it's too good to be true. The majority of the big color has been from the monster names. Could it be completely coincidental...of course it could. All I'm saying is I want proof. To me, the ultimate proof is that none of this has hit eBay. He's loosing money by the minute if he doesn't start listing now.

[trixstar]

Originally Posted by JEA2880

I think it's unfair to assume everyone would naturally assume there were SP's given what's happened in the past - it's my own ignorance for being largely "out of the game" the past few years but I thought I did enough due diligence, especially considering I knew he already had an Auto so truthfully the thought never even crossed my mind. Apparently not.

Part of me feels misled because of the anticipated auto hits/ratios posted in the terms of the break. Terms state that on average there will be ~18.4 autos/player without any mention of any possible SP's. While I certainly understand that there are no guarantees, the ratio posted is NOT 18.4 Auto's when there are SP's and suggesting so is misleading. I looked in both the case details and sell sheet and didn't see any mention of SP's so didn't think this would be something I'd have to worry about. Had I known that there was a potential for something like this I probably would've sat the break out but instead it looks like I might be in for an expensive lesson.

Hopefully you score some nice autos, color autos are where the $ is. I hate seeing anyone skunked in breaks. Especially with that amt of $ on the line.

[rutgersjpm]

The powers that be have spoken. I'm obviously the minority here and lots of the folks that have chimed in know their stuff. Forget I said anything.

[brentandbecca]

Originally Posted by rutgersjpm

Maybe I'm just a pessimist. My point is it's too good to be true. The majority of the big color has been from the monster names. Could it be completely coincidental...of course it could. All I'm saying is I want proof. To me, the ultimate proof is that none of this has hit eBay. He's loosing money by the minute if he doesn't start listing now.

he is not loosing or losing any money yet

being first does not always led to more money, in fact, I would list big name color for 5 days
also, since no others are on ebay, how is he losing? if others were and lots of it, maybe, but some would argue holding back on much stuff
typically good names and color hold for quite some time

[JEA2880]

Originally Posted by trixstar

Hopefully you score some nice autos, color autos are where the $ is. I hate seeing anyone skunked in breaks. Especially with that amt of $ on the line.

Thanks buddy, much appreciated. To reiterate, no animosity towards anyone on here

[brentandbecca]

Originally Posted by Jaypers

Maybe because he's fearful of possible reprisals by Topps for listing a full 48 hours prior to the street date?

and this as well, even though it does get in hands whether listed or not
what usually makes this tougher is retail coming out some places and some will be on ebay tonight for sure
doesn't seem to be as big a deal a day early anymore but 2 days does

edit: nevermind
it already is up
http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_odkw...+-set&_sacat=0

got to love the "gold yellow parallel paper" title for the Rizzo
I wish we would lose the "paper" as they are simply base, no other product do we call base or non chrome "paper"
but it has stuck and what folks like

time to go #retailhunting

[phil]

Originally Posted by brentandbecca

what usually makes this tougher is retail coming out some places and some will be on ebay tonight for sure

$145 already on the Gold Maeda that was pulled from retail

Kenta Maeda 2016 Bowman Chrome Gold Refractor RC Ref BCP142 43 50 Dodgers | eBay

[nikpounder]

Originally Posted by Jaypers

Maybe because he's fearful of possible reprisals by Topps for listing a full 48 hours prior to the street date?

Or worried that Topps might pull his Finest order

[houdini]

Originally Posted by bighunt172

thats about on average of what my friend has hit, other than the inserts on 1 case, any moncada?

He won't name names.

Originally Posted by JEA2880

I think it's unfair to assume everyone would naturally assume there were SP's given what's happened in the past - it's my own ignorance for being largely "out of the game" the past few years but I thought I did enough due diligence, especially considering I knew he already had an Auto so truthfully the thought never even crossed my mind. Apparently not.

Part of me feels misled because of the anticipated auto hits/ratios posted in the terms of the break. Terms state that on average there will be ~18.4 autos/player without any mention of any possible SP's. While I certainly understand that there are no guarantees, the ratio posted is NOT 18.4 Auto's when there are SP's and suggesting so is misleading. I looked in both the case details and sell sheet and didn't see any mention of SP's so didn't think this would be something I'd have to worry about. Had I known that there was a potential for something like this I probably would've sat the break out but instead it looks like I might be in for an expensive lesson.

It said ~18.4 by average.

900/49 = 18.367

Insert autos will skew that some.

I can't call SP if I have no way of knowing if they exist.

In the past, prospects have generally hit a bit above average and rookies a bit below overall. Maybe closer to 20 & 15? That is all speculation... just like this thread.

The break also says this:

Warning - If you pick an auto, you may get nothing. If that player has 20 autos, you get all 20; if that player gets 0 autos, you get 0. Same is true for all other spots.

To say you felt I mislead you is fine. Say that. Just be sure to quote that warning as well whenever you do.

Originally Posted by JEA2880

Yeah I hear you - I guess my point is I came strong on my bid and ended up overpaying the next highest bidder by a few hundred dollars because I was banking on at minimum getting the 18ish base Auto's, not because I wanted to gamble on a big boy.

My primary point is it's incorrect to use the wrapper odds and treat them as if there is a uniform print run of all auto prospect cards when it sounds like there clearly isn't/hasn't been in the past. There should at least be some sort of a disclaimer about the possibility of SP's since there will always be users with varying levels of experience/hobby expertise. Like I said, I thought I did my homework by reaffirming the numbers based on stated odds and referencing the sell sheet but now feel a bit blindsided. Not all have to agree, I'm just trying to articulate my logic in terms of why I bid what I bid and why I had different expectations.

I did not use wrapper odds. There were no wrapper odds until the day of.

I used math.

It said ~18.4 by average.

[JEA2880]

Originally Posted by houdini

He won't name names.



It said ~18.4 by average.

900/49 = 18.367

Insert autos will skew that some.

I can't call SP if I have no way of knowing if they exist.

In the past, prospects have generally hit a bit above average and rookies a bit below overall. Maybe closer to 20 & 15? That is all speculation... just like this thread.

The break also says this:

To say you felt I mislead you is fine. Say that. Just be sure to quote that warning as well whenever you do.



I did not use wrapper odds. There were no wrapper odds until the day of.

I used math.

It said ~18.4 by average.

Please see my additional responses above - again, not a shot at you specifically and certainly nothing conscious on your part. Please read my additional comments and hopefully you will understand where the ambiguity stems from.

[rutgersjpm]

Originally Posted by phil

$145 already on the Gold Maeda that was pulled from retail

Kenta Maeda 2016 Bowman Chrome Gold Refractor RC Ref BCP142 43 50 Dodgers | eBay

This is exactly my point.

[houdini]

Originally Posted by rutgersjpm

Until I see some photographs this break isn't happening. Sorry, but some of what you're posting doesn't line up with pack odds. If this is, in fact, real than whoever is ripping these should be paid by the rest of the people on here to open their cases. Not to mention the fact that they are nuts if they don't take a break right now and start listing on eBay IMMEDIATELY.

I can't back up the big names (that's just luck), but I can verify two seeming ambiguities:

1. Color is hitting better than wrapper odds on the 3 cases I personally know of - not posted here previously.

2. Rookies are hitting better than wrapper odds.

It is a small sample size though.

I am opening ~100 cases starting wednesday morning once they arrive - so I can tell you more then for sure - but I think he is telling the truth.

[brentandbecca]

Originally Posted by rutgersjpm

This is exactly my point.

if he would list it wednesday it still would be up to this
don't see the point
just because it's not being listed doesn't mean it's not happening or that he is losing ("loosing") money
why is always about money? SMH

[brentandbecca]

Originally Posted by houdini

I can't back up the big names (that's just luck), but I can verify two seeming ambiguities:

1. Color is hitting better than wrapper odds on the 3 cases I personally know of - not posted here previously.

2. Rookies are hitting better than wrapper odds.

It is a small sample size though.

I am opening ~100 cases starting wednesday morning once they arrive - so I can tell you more then for sure - but I think he is telling the truth.

good points and yes small samples so far and we all know cases go in runs
the 10 cases I heard of color hit slightly better too, but it was combo of color of prospect, rookie, and recollection
didn't hear about base rookies, so no idea on those

[rutgersjpm]

Originally Posted by brentandbecca

if he would list it wednesday it still would be up to this
don't see the point
just because it's not being listed doesn't mean it's not happening or that he is losing ("loosing") money
why is always about money? SMH

Everyone on here knows that no one on here knows more about when to list than you do. I concede.

[brentandbecca]

Originally Posted by rutgersjpm

Everyone on here knows that no one on here knows more about when to list than you do. I concede.

lol
my point is, just because s/he has early or is busting does not mean he has to list right now for several reasons that we can speculate on, but that's his/her business
shoot s/he could be dealing direct deals
several breakers have stuff pre-sold to several folks

you obviously would list now
and you know what, if I found retail tonight, I would most likely list some tonight too
for me, you can be more patient on some of the bigger hits especially when early, IMO
everyone is different and should do what works best for them

[puck419]

Dinner break? Lol

[StraWMyerS]

Originally Posted by JEA2880

I'm not even calling Houdini out! All I'm trying to do is explain my thinking in bidding the way I did because multiple people asked for an explanation, so I'm candidly giving one. I've already conceded that I was incorrect, and all I've done is suggest a way to avoid someone else being in my shoes in the future. I'm keeping it as productive as possible.

With that said, it's unfair that on the one hand people are saying I should have known better but then you're chiming in saying "how could Houdini have known better?" it can't be both ways and all I'm suggesting is that there's a better way of clarifying than the extreme example of pulling 0 or 20 auto's because each way can have a different meaning.

I don't think there's really anything else to add at this point.

I couldn't help but laugh at some of these responses to your post. So you were too aggressive and overlooked the fact that Swanson could likely be an SP... seemed like you were only blaming yourself in the first place.

[bighunt172]

The guy wont list them on eBay, he is like me, he collects. The only player i will sell is Maeda. The rest i will keep. I have a lot better things to do with my life, the fabricate someones case(s) break. He is running better odds than pack odds, but pack odds are just that (odds) selling early only benefits base chrome,base cards and some base autos and maybe refractor autos (not sp obviously). The bigger hits (like brent said) are going to be pretty consistant for the first month are so.

[brentandbecca]

Originally Posted by bighunt172

The guy wont list them on eBay, he is like me, he collects. The only player i will sell is Maeda. The rest i will keep. I have a lot better things to do with my life, the fabricate someones case(s) break. He is running better odds than pack odds, but pack odds are just that (odds) selling early only benefits base chrome,base cards and some base autos and maybe refractor autos (not sp obviously). The bigger hits (like brent said) are going to be pretty consistant for the first month are so.

yep, early helps the smalls for sure, like the base autos that drop quick for the lesser guys mostly

still, would be nice to see some pics
as even with the 10-caser I heard about, no pics there either and very little info

[bighunt172]

Originally Posted by brentandbecca

yep, early helps the smalls for sure, like the base autos that drop quick for the lesser guys mostly

still, would be nice to see some pics
as even with the 10-caser I heard about, no pics there either and very little info

He assured me that he would send me photos of the better hits, last i talked to him was after case 6 and he was getting ready to go to his grandsons baseball game.

[chezball]

Originally Posted by bighunt172

The guy wont list them on eBay, he is like me, he collects. The only player i will sell is Maeda. The rest i will keep. I have a lot better things to do with my life, the fabricate someones case(s) break. He is running better odds than pack odds, but pack odds are just that (odds) selling early only benefits base chrome,base cards and some base autos and maybe refractor autos (not sp obviously). The bigger hits (like brent said) are going to be pretty consistant for the first month are so.

never doubted you bro.

[dasiegel]

im gonna bump this to see if we have pics or new info

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by dasiegel

im gonna bump this to see if we have pics or new info

Between Bowman and Steph Curry my finger hurts from refreshing my browser all day. Your post fooled me into thinking there was new info here! Turns out you were hoping for the same.

[Dbacksbaseball]

Little league game is in extras.

Surprised we don't have photos, heck when im breaking half the guys I chat with on blowout have a picture within 5 seconds of a big pull. Yea well....everyone breaks differently.

In this day in Age with smartphones you can snap a photo of you best cards from a case quicker then typing a list lol