2022 Topps Chrome Baseball Pre Sale.. thoughts?

[PDCCollectibles]

Originally Posted by JRX

Gonna be a bloodbath when they release the checklist and half are in update and the other half are in 2023 s1.

With breakers, it's not really a bloodbath at this price point as they always will sell slots. I believe it's the main reason prices have risen so high....even breakers don't get as much pre sale allocation as they used to from distributors. But if your breaking a case at 5k, that's another story

[JRX]

Sapphire might just be 1k straight from topps if it has all the big names.

[Yaga]

Originally Posted by JRX

Gonna be a bloodbath when they release the checklist and half are in update and the other half are in 2023 s1.

There's no chance they'd hold opening day players until the next hobby year

[JRX]

Originally Posted by Yaga

There's no chance they'd hold opening day players until the next hobby year

They is fanatics, most likely no, but we don't know what they'll do.

[brios8]

This is clearly a Sign the MLB wants to attract more fans and make the game more popular

Opening Day Rosters including

Bobby Witt
Julio Rodriguez
Spencer Torkelson
Hunter Greene

Possibly:
Bryson Stott
Cj Abrams


Great future for the MLB + Hobby
That lockout will make wonders

[JoshMN]

Originally Posted by JRX

They is fanatics, most likely no, but we don't know what they'll do.

Right. Opening Day itself was delayed. Fanatics/Topps can do whatever they want and just blame it on that, but would be pretty ridiculous for them not to include players on OD roster in late 2022 releases.

[JRX]

Originally Posted by brios8

This is clearly a Sign the MLB wants to attract more fans and make the game more popular

Opening Day Rosters including

Bobby Witt
Julio Rodriguez
Spencer Torkelson
Hunter Greene

Possibly:
Bryson Stott
Cj Abrams


Great future for the MLB + Hobby
That lockout will make wonders

I think we're also seeing this wave due to the covid season. Some of these guys may have already debuted if not for the lost season / year of development.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by brios8

This is clearly a Sign the MLB wants to attract more fans and make the game more popular

Opening Day Rosters including

Bobby Witt
Julio Rodriguez
Spencer Torkelson
Hunter Greene

Possibly:
Bryson Stott
Cj Abrams


Great future for the MLB + Hobby
That lockout will make wonders

I think a big component of it was the lockout. service time manipulation was a major discussion point.

Originally Posted by JRX

I think we're also seeing this wave due to the covid season. Some of these guys may have already debuted if not for the lost season / year of development.

This is true. Every big prospect right now lost a year of minor league ball due to covid. Wander for example very likely would have been called up at the end of 2020 if there had been a minor league season, then likely made the club out of spring training last year. He would have been the headliner 2021 products were lacking. Covid ended up bunching all these guys up in 2022.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by pewe

I'm frustrated, as I did a stub version of this analysis above for Wander specifically, and found ~$600 in EV/hobby case assuming his prices match Tatis/Vlad level. And then of course I didn't save the excel.



I'll re-do. And make it generalizable so it can compare across format.



Essentially we just need to make a few assumptions on 4 categories of players:

-- # hottest RC

-- # 2nd tier RC (they generally get ~1/5-1/10th the prior bullet)

-- # mid-career stars that get disproportionate value (we found it was ~6 before)

-- the rest



BTW one other thing that is important in the model is assumptions of insertion rate of each above bullet in Autographs. In the past, when I've mapped hundreds of cases of breaks it has stayed consistent over the years:

-- first couple bullets are ~1:10 vs. "the rest" for a base card, and generally have full color parallel coverage

-- third are ~1:40 vs. "the rest" for a base card, and generally only have ~1/3 of the color coverage (just the gold and rarer parallels), which makes numerical proportion even worse



With that we can get roughly the EV/case. Which I had found previously to be in the $2000 range for Chrome Hobby with one set of assumptions.

Originally Posted by kon jelly

I'm not sure that would even be possible. For starters, you're guaranteed an auto from a hobby box, but there are a ton of rookie reliever autos that are worthless. How do you assign a value to a generic "auto" card that could be worth $.10 or could be worth hundreds? It's an interesting angle, though.



What I've learned from these things is what most people probably already figured: if you want autos buy hobby, and if you want parallels buy retail.

It’s just about making assumptions as pewe said. you could group players in buckets to get an EV.

You could also just take one player and estimate the value of each of his parallels and the odds of pulling it to get the EV of that player then compare the formats to determine the relative value of each format.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by PDCCollectibles

With breakers, it's not really a bloodbath at this price point as they always will sell slots. I believe it's the main reason prices have risen so high....even breakers don't get as much pre sale allocation as they used to from distributors. But if your breaking a case at 5k, that's another story

If you want to assess blame as to why box prices have risen so high, it would be more accurate to blame the gamblers who buy spots in breaks.

Because it's their lack of discipline that allow breakers to continually raise their prices.

For a gambler hoping to hit a $1000 card, it doesn't really make a difference if the spot costs $5 or $10. But that's a 100% price differential, and the difference between the breaker's break-even point being $150 or $300 per box.

That's where box price inflation is coming from....

[Blake050]

Well y'all successfully FOMOed me. Just pre-ordered a case of hobby.

[brios8]

Its getting late!!

Prices are... you guessed it, UP UP UP

Jumbo: $6,350
Hobby: $4,950

[pewe]

Originally Posted by kon jelly

It's just figuring out the price per pack, and then multiplying it by the pack odds in each format. Here's part of what I had for 2021 Chrome:



Obviously all those values change with whatever the market price is.

OK, I built the model using 2021 as the exemplar product. If we assume these additional parallels are to keep insertion rates of hits the same, then this should be an OK way to do it.

What I need from you: assumption of card value.

For instance, I built these below values in, as a first take... split across these player tiers:

• "top tier RC" - think Tatis or Vlad from '19 pricing (that is what I used to guide current $$ in there)
• 2nd tier RC - regional fan favorites... I usually see them getting ~25% of the top tier on average
• Top veterans - we looked at this before and ~6 players were getting distinctive pricing (this is set using Tatis/Soto/Acuna/Trout pricing in '21 chrome)
• Rest - there is some value in the rarer parallels, probably. And the other cards get little $$ otherwise?

I've ignored insert parallels for now. They are pretty rare as it is, so probably won't drastically change the math. Maybe assume my EV is 5% too low to account for all them.

Also, NOTE: I've adjusted the autographs for the varying insert rate. My historic experience is that base top RC are inserted at ~25% the rate of the rest. And veterans are even rarer and in addition don't include some of color parallels (usually the higher numbers)




If interested, with those assumptions, I get these EV:
-- Hobby box = ~$210
-- Jumbo box = ~$340
-- Hobby Lite = ~$130
-- Blaster = ~$40
-- Mega = ~$55
-- Hanger = ~$25

[hermanotarjeta]

Why would anyone short of degenerate gambling breaker participants pay these prices for a third year card of Witt, and fourth year cards of wander and jrod when their real first year cards are much more desirable and valuable?

Has there ever been a situation where a player’s topps chrome rookie/auto is more valuable than their first bowman chrome auto?

[brios8]

ITS HAPPENING!!!! DAAAAMN

Jumbo: $7,950
Hobby: $5,950

[pewe]

Originally Posted by brios8

ITS HAPPENING!!!! DAAAAMN

Jumbo: $7,950
Hobby: $5,950

What's happening???

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by brios8

ITS HAPPENING!!!! DAAAAMN

Jumbo: $7,950
Hobby: $5,950

Nice!!!!!!!

[hermanotarjeta]

I love the ponzi aspect to presale cases - buy a case you don’t physically have and sell it before you physically have it for profitz.

Nothing could go wrong there…….

[JRX]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

I love the ponzi aspect to presale cases - buy a case you don’t physically have and sell it before you physically have it for profitz.

Nothing could go wrong there…….

Without knowing the checklist.......

[pewe]

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

Why would anyone short of degenerate gambling breaker participants pay these prices for a third year card of Witt, and fourth year cards of wander and jrod when their real first year cards are much more desirable and valuable?

Has there ever been a situation where a player’s topps chrome rookie/auto is more valuable than their first bowman chrome auto?

Seems like you may be mixing some verbiage here... is a "real first year card" someone who collects minor league players? I have to assume "yes" given the timeline you suggest.

What makes you feel they are more desirable than rookie cards? I would assume a good proxy for "desirable" is total portion of hobby collecting them, and total $$ spent?

The facts we know: collectors of minor league player cards are a small (but dedicated!) minority in the hobby. Certainly 1st Bowman may be worth quite a lot, but that's mostly because they are much much rarer than RC. Plus, outside 1st Bowman Autos the rest of the minor league player cards are largely panned.

And when we look at total spend, rookie cards show much larger demand as demonstrated by probably close to 100x $$ spent on rookie year vs. the initial minor league releases.

[kyle1707]

It’s like 2018 over again

Except wax is 3-5 x cost

Still will be fun

[eastbayak]

Originally Posted by kyle1707

It’s like 2018 over again

Except wax is 3-5 x cost

Still will be fun

Time to hoard....and make up for not hoarding in 2018.

[brios8]

Originally Posted by pewe

What's happening???

I know I know, you still cant figure it out lol

Originally Posted by hermanotarjeta

I love the ponzi aspect to presale cases - buy a case you don’t physically have and sell it before you physically have it for profitz.

Nothing could go wrong there…….

Its always been like this. If you buy from Blowout you know 100% you will receive the product. No idea what deal they have with Topps, but they will get the cases.

Its the same cost for Topps to produce each case and they get an idea of demand by presales. Its like buying a presale Condo, it will usually be cheaper than once its built and even there things could go wrong... but with Topps the product will be made.. we are 100% having 2022 Topps Chrome

Originally Posted by JRX

Without knowing the checklist.......

Exactly! Thats where if one has vision they can make good predictions as to who could be in it and buy before

[Coach Ditka]

So we're just going to have these prices built around a lot of hype & speculation closing in on 2018 Update case prices? Makes sense ...

[brios8]

Originally Posted by Coach Ditka

So we're just going to have these prices built around a lot of hype & speculation closing in on 2018 Update case prices? Makes sense ...

Exactly
When you can have possibly the best checklist ever. Yeah
The hobby love changed from paper to Chrome the past 2 years