Connor Bedard

[ZappBrannigan]

Originally Posted by slightlyrounded

The rookie class is absolutely stacked, PLUS we've got the introduction of 1/1s and a bunch of other short-print YGs. I personally think the hobby prices should command a massive premium to previous years.

They think that every year. Nailed Yakupovs drove prices up too.

[cbeauch87]

Originally Posted by Bcr

It would be great if Series 2 presell prices would reflect reality. Wishful thinking I know.

I still think Series 2 boxes will drop significantly 6-8 months after release. I want multiple for my sealed collection, but I'm willing to take the risk that they drop in price. I'll focus on SPA and OPC Platinum, assuming Bedard isn't a redemption in those sets.

[anusinha]

Looks like the Topps Now #1 Bedard has a print run just a hair under 30k. Probably the highest PR of any topps now sticker by FAR. Probably still has some decent value since he wont have any blackhawks jersey cards out for a few months, aside from the easter eggs and SPs

[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by cbeauch87

I still think Series 2 boxes will drop significantly 6-8 months after release. I want multiple for my sealed collection, but I'm willing to take the risk that they drop in price. I'll focus on SPA and OPC Platinum, assuming Bedard isn't a redemption in those sets.

What's your prediction on how far they'll drop?

They were pre-selling for $200.

I think they come out of the gate $200+ and I think there are better odds they hit $300 before they sell under $200.

[kellmuff]

Originally Posted by CalderCityCards

I don't disagree with this, but he's also basically on a 40 goal / 80 point pace as an 18yr old, 11 games into his NHL career. The ridiculousness of expectations and how some folks are measuring "success" & "living up to the hype" is hilarious.....

he's on pace for 52 points

[razorsharp]

Originally Posted by CalderCityCards

I don't disagree with this, but he's also basically on a 40 goal / 80 point pace as an 18yr old, 11 games into his NHL career. The ridiculousness of expectations and how some folks are measuring "success" & "living up to the hype" is hilarious.....

Not sure where you are getting these numbers but he's not even close to an 80 point pace. Right now he is on pace for 52 which would be a massive disappointment.

Sidney Crosby put up 102 points his rookie year during an era when scoring was down. Only 6 other players that year put up 100+ points.

Last season there were 11 100+ point scorers and 2 guys finished with 99.

[ThatGuyPal]

Don't get the "hopefully S2 will drop in price" crowd when the implication would be Bedard isn't playing well or injured when he would be the whole reason to hold sealed in the first place lol

Also barring injury not worried about how well he plays, there is too much casual money and series 2 pre-orders for people to let his value dip to nothing or even much less than expected, people are still opening this year's Team Canada set solely for Bedard third year/last year cards, his YG/S2 will still be a win as long as you aren't paying current pre-order prices.

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by razorsharp

Not sure where you are getting these numbers but he's not even close to an 80 point pace. Right now he is on pace for 52 which would be a massive disappointment.

Sidney Crosby put up 102 points his rookie year during an era when scoring was down. Only 6 other players that year put up 100+ points.

Last season there were 11 100+ point scorers and 2 guys finished with 99.

Crosby and Ovie had help getting to 100 that year because teams couldn’t adjust to the new way games were called after the lockout and there were a GAZILLION powerplays.

In 2005-06 the average number of PP opportunities per game league wide was 5.85. Last season? 3.07.

If Bedard was getting almost twice as many powerplays every single game yeah he’d probably be scoring a lot more this season too.

[NotGoSportsBall]

Can we just all agree Bedard is already a bust and will be in the AHL next year? Thanks.

[razorsharp]

Originally Posted by Inferno

Crosby and Ovie had help getting to 100 that year because teams couldn’t adjust to the new way games were called after the lockout and there were a GAZILLION powerplays.

In 2005-06 the average number of PP opportunities per game league wide was 5.85. Last season? 3.07.

If Bedard was getting almost twice as many powerplays every single game yeah he’d probably be scoring a lot more this season too.

1 year outlier and still with that there were more goals scored per game last year than in '05-'06.

[fjf31970]

3 points in the 1st period tonight. 2 goals and 1 assist

[rj.cataldo]

Originally Posted by fjf31970

3 points in the 1st period tonight. 2 goals and 1 assist

4 pts now

[Inferno]

He’s busting wrong

[ThatGuyPal]

Looks like those prices aren't coming down lol he's def busting wrong

It's weird every time I see a box score and Chicago is up as an underdog I just get this feeling he's scored and it's been right most times.

[Giroux]

The 80 point pace guy was from one day in the future

[rj.cataldo]

Originally Posted by ThatGuyPal

Looks like those prices aren't coming down lol he's def busting wrong

It's weird every time I see a box score and Chicago is up as an underdog I just get this feeling he's scored and it's been right most times.

Stats aside - Those who have watched him play would say he’s far from a bust. His level of play has been strong with a mediocre team as an 18 year old playing against grown men. Expectations are high but let’s give him a little time to adjust to the league.


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[fjf31970]

If he scores another goal tonight I believe he will be the youngest to score a Hat Trick

[ewilkens]

Originally Posted by Giroux

The 80 point pace guy was from one day in the future

This is why projected stats less than 1/4 through the season are dumb. One good game or one bad game can really skew the numbers.

Anyone watching the games could tell a multi-point game was coming at some point. He's always around the puck and getting chances. An easier schedule will too, the Hawks have had a heavy dose of some really good teams, 2 vs Vegas, 2 vs Boston, Colorado and NJD who are all among the top teams.


And for the record, I don't think its automatic that he gets to 80 points either, because as said above, 1 good game skews the projection this early into a season. I'm locked in with the over at 68.5 (I believe - I'd have to double check the exact number)

[The_Reverend]

Originally Posted by ThatGuyPal

Don't get the "hopefully S2 will drop in price" crowd when the implication would be Bedard isn't playing well or injured when he would be the whole reason to hold sealed in the first place lol

Also barring injury not worried about how well he plays, there is too much casual money and series 2 pre-orders for people to let his value dip to nothing or even much less than expected, people are still opening this year's Team Canada set solely for Bedard third year/last year cards, his YG/S2 will still be a win as long as you aren't paying current pre-order prices.

This. So many people want this kid to struggle, but for the good of the hobby I want him to kill it! UD2 will be high regardless. There are a lot of basketball/football speculators entering this market. The difference? He will have results and increased hype. He was very close to having a hat trick last night. The Hockey market needs him to be successful. Many who are complaining about the pre-sell price just want cheap wax. We all do, but those days are over, especially with this loaded class.

[dcarado]

Originally Posted by The_Reverend

This. So many people want this kid to struggle, but for the good of the hobby I want him to kill it! UD2 will be high regardless. There are a lot of basketball/football speculators entering this market. The difference? He will have results and increased hype. He was very close to having a hat trick last night. The Hockey market needs him to be successful. Many who are complaining about the pre-sell price just want cheap wax. We all do, but those days are over, especially with this loaded class.

Absolutely correct, "good of the hobby" for a lot of people means "why can't wax prices be what I paid 5 years ago?" If you're in this boat, just buy singles instead of wax and you'll be more than happy.

To your point about the basketball/football speculators, this is really all that matters from a hobby standpoint. Hype will function as it always does, but unless you have significant interest from the same type of people who are dropping thousands on QBs before they make a pro start, the needle won't move that much. It wasn't that long ago that basketball was hobby king, and football card prices were a fraction of what basketball cards got.

[Giroux]

I'm going to keep an eye on his S1 draft easter egg card. If that loses a lot of value when his YG and FWA eventually come out, I may pick one up.

[ThatGuyPal]

First hat-trick coming today?

2 Goals in second against Florida so far

[rj.cataldo]

This kid is clearly a bust.


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[potatozoo]

if this keeps up I wonder what his FWA will be worth
Ill admit, if he keeps this up I cant wait to see what anything of his is worth first year

what a goal
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBnSegR0fsM

[irv]

Originally Posted by ThatGuyPal

First hat-trick coming today?

2 Goals in second against Florida so far

That first goal of his was something else. His 2nd was pretty sweet too.

What was Matthew Tkachuk thinking, that Bedard was actually going to drop his gloves? What douche bag. I was over the hill happy after Keegan Kolesar nailed him in the finals. Couldn't have happened to a more deserving player.