Official 2025-26 NBA Offseason Thread

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by JustinVerlander07

MPJ for all his warts averaged 48%/41% from 3 17 points per game and they won a championship in his year 5......This is revisionist history for sure based on what we saw from his the last 3 months of 24/25.

Worth the rookie max in year 5? Maybe, maybe not. He was definitely movable after they won the title.

Don’t think this is fair. When MPJ extended in 2021 people were surprised they did it a year early. When he got hurt the following season it became a major talking point. This was discussed years prior to the last 3 months of 24/25. You might be right that he was movable in the window after they won the title. But point still stands that an extension in 2022 is tens of millions less than what they gave him in 2021, which enables them to keep Bruce Brown + KCP rather than siphoning off parts every year after winning the title.

I like MPJ. I’m not hating him as a player. But negative contracts destroy team-building, and I don’t understand committing a year earlier than necessary when you’re paying max $ instead of getting a discount for that premature commitment.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by JustinVerlander07

MPJ for all his warts averaged 48%/41% from 3 17 points per game and they won a championship in his year 5......This is revisionist history for sure based on what we saw from his the last 3 months of 24/25.

Worth the rookie max in year 5? Maybe, maybe not. He was definitely movable after they won the title.

I think it also comes down to what moveable means. Chet is moveable in the sense he's not a bad contract but I don't think teams would line up to get him. And him being injury prone increases the chances of attaching assets in case you want to move him.

I think Chet is moveable at least for the next two seasons. It just seems unnecessarily risky. If he becomes an All-NBA player then just max him next season.

[msink28]

Which teams in the NBA wouldn't trade for Chet's contract if they could? The only one I can think of off hand is maybe San Antonio but I bet they'd strongly consider it.

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by msink28

Which teams in the NBA wouldn't trade for Chet's contract if they could? The only one I can think of off hand is maybe San Antonio but I bet they'd strongly consider it.

Look up the poison pill provision. Teams aren’t trading for Chet today. You’re asking which teams would trade for Chet a year from now? Who knows, because a lot can change in a year. Plenty of teams would have traded for Tatum and Hali a year ago. Nobody is saying that Chet is a bad player. We’re saying they significantly increased their risk exposure without an offsetting benefit such as discounted terms (JJJ) or non-guarantees (Zion).

Personally I don’t think a 3-max-player team structure will work in the current CBA, but maybe I’ll be wrong on that. They’ll essentially have to surround Sha/Jdub/Chet with a bunch of rookie contracts and vet minimum guys as Denver and Phoenix have tried to do the last few years. Unless that owner is willing to spend insane amounts of $ like Celtics ownership did for a few years.

[msink28]

I guess I find it difficult to believe that Chet's 25-26 season could be so bad that no team in the NBA would offer him a max contract as an RFA next summer. I find it more likely that he makes a leap and becomes more expensive to retain. Regarding the difference between 25% of the cap and 30% of the cap, that's a rotation guy, roughly 8.5 million per year, or almost exactly what they're paying Jaylin Williams.

I think this is a difference in belief, not really an argument.

Regarding the poison pill, I could be mistaken, but I think Brooklyn could probably swing a deal for him today and absorb his hit, not as if OKC has any desire to do this. But sure, yeah, next year I think if he were on the market there would be a line out the door for the opportunity to trade for him unless he gets badly injured again, in which case I think some teams might still kick the tires on him.

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by msink28

I guess I find it difficult to believe that Chet's 25-26 season could be so bad that no team in the NBA would offer him a max contract as an RFA next summer. I find it more likely that he makes a leap and becomes more expensive to retain. Regarding the difference between 25% of the cap and 30% of the cap, that's a rotation guy, roughly 8.5 million per year, or almost exactly what they're paying Jaylin Williams.

I think this is a difference in belief, not really an argument.

Regarding the poison pill, I could be mistaken, but I think Brooklyn could probably swing a deal for him today and absorb his hit, not as if OKC has any desire to do this. But sure, yeah, next year I think if he were on the market there would be a line out the door for the opportunity to trade for him unless he gets badly injured again, in which case I think some teams might still kick the tires on him.

New CBA allows teams to negotiate with their own players earlier; OKC could max Chet next summer before any other team gets the chance to offer. We need more details on the terms of the extension, specifically all-nba/DPOY provisions. To see how much they ‘saved’. Rotation guys are extremely valuable in the new CBA. OKC wouldn’t have beat Denver with no Hartenstein/Jaylin Williams. There will be no Hartenstein after next season when these deals kick in.

The poison pill is not just cost for acquiring team but return value as well. Poison pill takes the eligible trade pool and shrinks it to practically nothing—basically other rookie max guys whose teams would never willingly trade them.

[msink28]

Paolo signed for a Designated Rookie Extension. Chet didn't, that's the difference you see in the numbers. Jalen Williams is like the perfect candidate for that extension, but OKC is probably trying to negotiate out of it, that's the difference.

I agree that they need the rotation guys but they also don't win a Finals without Chet, that's the problem every team faces, who is more valuable.

I see your point on the poison pill, I had thought it was just cost for acquiring team.

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by msink28

Paolo signed for a Designated Rookie Extension. Chet didn't, that's the difference you see in the numbers. Jalen Williams is like the perfect candidate for that extension, but OKC is probably trying to negotiate out of it, that's the difference.

I agree that they need the rotation guys but they also don't win a Finals without Chet, that's the problem every team faces, who is more valuable.

I see your point on the poison pill, I had thought it was just cost for acquiring team.

Okay thanks, I wasn’t sure because they revised the anticipated cap increase from +10% to +7%. I thought maybe that upper number difference to Paolo reflected that. So 287-250=37 million. Divided across 5 seasons is 7.4 million per season. That’s what they would save if Chet made all-nba or won DPOY next year. That’s legitimate savings (a rotation guy), but if Chet plays 40 games next season, you could have got him for 20% of cap and saved an even better rotation guy, or two.

I think Jdub deserves it all tbh (if he wants it). Agreed that’s the fundamental question of team building right now—salary distribution. Presti previously elected for a big-2 (let Harden walk) in a big-3 era; maybe now he’s going for a big-3 in a big-2 era?

[Chryghst]

Since my last take was so popular, going back to the well. Booker for 145/2 for 2028-29 (32 yo) and 2029-30 (33 yo) is just brutal. Really like Booker the player and person, but him making 35% of the cap at age 32/33 ensures that whichever team has him on roster does not win in those seasons. Either it’s the Suns with no flexibility or it’s a team that traded significant contracts to acquire him. I just do not believe winning is the primary thing for these guys, which is fine, but let’s not pretend.

He’s a better player than Bradley Beal, but in 2029/30 this will be the closest equivalent to the Beal contract now. Genuinely sad about this because I want Booker to win a title at some point.

Every time Shams tweets I become a bigger Jalen Brunson fan.

[ninjacookies]

I think the Chet move was more a reflection of the need (and relative absence) of defensively flexible 7 footers.

I mean, dude had 5 blocks in the closeout and multiple game saving ISO closeouts on Hali g5. For as up and down as his offense was (who else wasn't up and down that series outside of SGA?), his defense can't be denied. But I understand this is a hobby board, so those things aren't necessarily sexy.

Also lead all defenders in fg% at the rim this postseason. I'd like to think they had/have the roster and depth to win it in spite of him, but I don't know if I can say that with confidence. IH has no business wandering outside the dotted circle and you can't rely on Bald Mamba to carry outside his height-grade for 48.

[packman80]

IN still crying about Turner. Now the HC saying he thinks the Bucks "forced" turner to sign by giving him a take it now or it's gone offer.

They just won't admit they screwed up by trying to low ball a franchise cornerstone and he got pissed and left when he got a much better offer elsewhere.

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

I think the Chet move was more a reflection of the need (and relative absence) of defensively flexible 7 footers.

I mean, dude had 5 blocks in the closeout and multiple game saving ISO closeouts on Hali g5. For as up and down as his offense was (who else wasn't up and down that series outside of SGA?), his defense can't be denied. But I understand this is a hobby board, so those things aren't necessarily sexy.

Also lead all defenders in fg% at the rim this postseason. I'd like to think they had/have the roster and depth to win it in spite of him, but I don't know if I can say that with confidence. IH has no business wandering outside the dotted circle and you can't rely on Bald Mamba to carry outside his height-grade for 48.

Big Ninja fan personally, but Jokic absolutely destroyed Chet on both ends in that series. AD is also in-conference.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Chryghst

Big Ninja fan personally, but Jokic absolutely destroyed Chet on both ends in that series. AD is also in-conference.

Yoker owns pretty much everyone he goes against, with the strange exception of Ivanka Zoobotch. Who himself cannot wander outside of 4 feet without hitting the SOS switch.


I'd say that's something you can live with as OKC ownership considering he's the best player in the game and pretty much matchup proof. Most you can do is get a hand in his face with the Chetneck/Hart stack.


AD at this point in his career? Now that's a matchup that intrigues me.

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Yoker owns pretty much everyone he goes against, with the strange exception of Ivanka Zoobotch. Who himself cannot wander outside of 4 feet without hitting the SOS switch.


I'd say that's something you can live with as OKC ownership considering he's the best player in the game and pretty much matchup proof. Most you can do is get a hand in his face with the Chetneck/Hart stack.


AD at this point in his career? Now that's a matchup that intrigues me.

Please watch this in full Ninja: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPiE-Ruhohg.

Games 2-6 OKC pre-switched and scram-switched to get Chet off Jokic every possession. It was notable watching it live. That’s a schematic Boston used to run with Kemba Walker, and Atlanta now runs with Trae Young. Not exactly defensive stalwarts. I don’t know how you max a center who you literally have to hide on defense against the player you’ll have to beat every playoffs to make the finals. Jokic hunted the Chet mismatch, not Shai/Caruso etc. That is wild—name a max center in the league that teams hide against opposing centers. They don’t exist.

You might say ‘but Hartenstein…but Caruso’ and that’s exactly my point. If you need the rotations guys to make it work, then you can’t max Chet and lose the rotation guys. As of July 2025, I would rather have Hartenstein and Caruso than Chet alone. Could that change by July 2026? Of course—so make the contract decision then.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Chryghst

Please watch this in full Ninja: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPiE-Ruhohg.

Games 2-6 OKC pre-switched and scram-switched to get Chet off Jokic every possession. It was notable watching it live. That’s a schematic Boston used to run with Kemba Walker, and Atlanta now runs with Trae Young. Not exactly defensive stalwarts. I don’t know how you max a center who you literally have to hide on defense against the player you’ll have to beat every playoffs to make the finals. Jokic hunted the Chet mismatch, not Shai/Caruso etc. That is wild—name a max center in the league that teams hide against opposing centers. They don’t exist.

You might say ‘but Hartenstein…but Caruso’ and that’s exactly my point. If you need the rotations guys to make it work, then you can’t max Chet and lose the rotation guys. As of July 2025, I would rather have Hartenstein and Caruso than Chet alone. Could that change by July 2026? Of course—so make the contract decision then.

I watched them live, brother. And it was clear to anyone with 2 eyes that they were basically blitzing him and forcing him to make bad passes. Which worked. It didn't matter who they put on him, Joker's going to make shots because he's the best player in the game. And make difficult shots that most mortals have no business making. I'd understand if this were a nuanced argument where we're discussing Naz Reid's matchup-specific dominance. But this is Yoker, of all guys.


Also, for as good as his overall numbers were that series, he had 3 games with scoring totals of 20 or under. They made a cumulative effort to make his life h-e-double-hockey-sticks using every conceivable resource they had available. This is a guy that averaged nearly 30/12/10 for the season. So it's not like his numbers that series were eye popping. Right at or slightly below his norms.

I'm not sure there's any universe where you're supposed to rest your laurels on a single guy to stop the best player of each generation. That's just not a realistic expectation.



There are 2 sides to every story, mi amigo.



I guess what I'm saying is: what is the alternative here? Slemby, Him, and MAYBE Mobley are bigs that have the lateral agility to switch off and stick high level backcourt talent. For as much of a monster as JJJ is shutting down the lane, he's a lost cause when he's drawn out on an island against shifty guards.


So essentially there's less than a handful of legit bigs with Chet's defensive skillset...all of whom are accounted for. And multifaceted lockdown collegiate bigs almost always fall within the lottery range.

It may not be the optimal situation, but probably one where the alternative
doesn't offer any sense of medium term security.

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

I watched them live, brother. And it was clear to anyone with 2 eyes that they were basically blitzing him and forcing him to make bad passes. Which worked. It didn't matter who they put on him, Joker's going to make shots because he's the best player in the game. And make difficult shots that most mortals have no business making. I'd understand if this were a nuanced argument where we're discussing Naz Reid's matchup-specific dominance. But this is Yoker, of all guys.


Also, for as good as his overall numbers were that series, he had 3 games with scoring totals of 20 or under. They made a cumulative effort to make his life h-e-double-hockey-sticks using every conceivable resource they had available. This is a guy that averaged nearly 30/12/10 for the season. So it's not like his numbers that series were eye popping. Right at or slightly below his norms.

I'm not sure there's any universe where you're supposed to rest your laurels on a single guy to stop the best player of each generation. That's just not a realistic expectation.



There are 2 sides to every story, mi amigo.



I guess what I'm saying is: what is the alternative here? Slemby, Him, and MAYBE Mobley are bigs that have the lateral agility to switch off and stick high level backcourt talent. For as much of a monster as JJJ is shutting down the lane, he's a lost cause when he's drawn out on an island against shifty guards.


So essentially there's less than a handful of legit bigs with Chet's defensive skillset...all of whom are accounted for. And multifaceted lockdown collegiate bigs almost always fall within the lottery range.

It may not be the optimal situation, but probably one where the alternative
doesn't offer any sense of medium term security.

My point is the shots that Jokic was generating against Chet were not difficult—they were directly under the rim, and OKC adjusted immediately after game 1. It absolutely did matter who they put on him; it was all the guys they’ll have to lose because of this Chet contract. You can think Chet will be a terrific player and still acknowledge that is highly problematic.

Chet had some good defensive moments in the finals. Much as it breaks my heart to say it, they might never see Indiana in another playoff series. Next year they will see Denver, who now possess the depth they lacked in the 2025 playoffs. They’ll see Denver again the year after that.

Fair point on alternatives. I actually think Bam would be a great fit. I still think Chet is awesome, but at a lower number so that you can have a Hartenstein or Caruso alongside him.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Chryghst

My point is the shots that Jokic was generating against Chet were not difficult—they were directly under the rim, and OKC adjusted immediately after game 1. It absolutely did matter who they put on him; it was all the guys they’ll have to lose because of this Chet contract. You can think Chet will be a terrific player and still acknowledge that is highly problematic.

Chet had some good defensive moments in the finals. Much as it breaks my heart to say it, they might never see Indiana in another playoff series. Next year they will see Denver, who now possess the depth they lacked in the 2025 playoffs. They’ll see Denver again the year after that.

Fair point on alternatives. I actually think Bam would be a great fit. I still think Chet is awesome, but at a lower number so that you can have a Hartenstein or Caruso alongside him.

I always rock with your analysis. I'm not even really disagreeing with you here, just that the alternatives are basically non existent if building a long/defensive anchored roster is your goal.

It will be interesting to see how they fill it out in a few seasons now that they'll have to make concessions with certain ballhawks to adjust for the gigacontracts. I could be way off here, but if they didn't pay Chet I'm thinking at least a few other teams would (whether that's justified or not). The FA market is simply nutty, and Chetdaddy owes Myles & the Bucks org a bottle of Leroy Corton for the timing.


I was big on BAM circa 2021 (have to dig up the posts), but he's fallen short of my expectations. Always thought he'd develop into a Sabonis+ type, but he peaked early and kind of is who he'll always be at this point. Not a bad thing, but is defense leaves a lot to be desired (can be tied to him playing out of position for his size) and he can fall victim to lackadaisical stretches.

I'm shook to see what kind of money he commands in 3 years.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

I think the Chet move was more a reflection of the need (and relative absence) of defensively flexible 7 footers.

I mean, dude had 5 blocks in the closeout and multiple game saving ISO closeouts on Hali g5. For as up and down as his offense was (who else wasn't up and down that series outside of SGA?), his defense can't be denied. But I understand this is a hobby board, so those things aren't necessarily sexy.

Also lead all defenders in fg% at the rim this postseason. I'd like to think they had/have the roster and depth to win it in spite of him, but I don't know if I can say that with confidence. IH has no business wandering outside the dotted circle and you can't rely on Bald Mamba to carry outside his height-grade for 48.

Put some respect on Ernie's son ninja. He and Lu were the main reason (outside of SGA) that they won. Chet and Jalen were actually underwhelming.

I expected this from other people, not you. Come on brother.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

Put some respect on Ernie's son ninja. He and Lu were the main reason (outside of SGA) that they won. Chet and Jalen were actually underwhelming.

I expected this from other people, not you. Come on brother.

Norwooding Mamba was the reason why they hung in every single series. I think that goes without saying. What exactly are you implying here? That they offload ET and Chetneck because they were lackluster against a title-tested roster?

I never said Chet was a driving force in that Denver series. But it's not like he didn't contribute anything. I think his biggest obvious contribution was on the boards. He really showed up in that respect...best he did all year.

For as amazeballs as those 2 wings are in their specialized roles...they're exactly that. Highly specialized defensive stoppers that cannot be relied upon to carry any kind of offensive load. If they do, it's simply a bonus. Now we get to see exactly how much these guys are worth on the secondary market. It's not like OKC doesn't have prior familiarity with dudes like this.



If you know; you knew.

[Nomad]

Let's talk Pacers Ninja, I see nothing to relate to in this thread. Do you think they have a chance without Haliburton?

To dominate again in a weak East?

[ninjacookies]

No Coach Django.
No qualified Embeede Medicare.
No non-gentrified Tatum.




M'lord @ the combo 1/2. Furphizzle anchoring the wing.

I don't see the issue, pare.



Let's run it back.

[Nomad]

Your post made the fifth year gold jump 300%. $203 with four days to go. Great day for investors. But I am already priced out of that elusive Tru G Prizm. Sure I have the '22-23, but I hardly consider that a card.



What I love about this card is that Obi Toppin's is a companion piece.


James Johnson cameo effect. I also swear I see Buddy Hield. But he never played in Indy with Siakam on the team.

[blackvodka]

Honestly, I figured the Thunder would sign both. Back in the day they felt they couldn't keep both Ibaka and Harden, so they traded Harden and then the salary cap went up so they could have kept both. They really wanted to avoid that blunder again.

Jdub I get. Chet IMO they signed a year early. He's risky and they could have waited a year. They'll have to be strategic with the rest of their roster moves and $.

Sent from my motorola razr 2024 using Tapatalk

[Nomad]

I'd rather have Chet than J Dubs. Who belongs on the Cavs anyway.

Is that the question? Having a hard time following this thread.

[Sticks33]

Originally Posted by blackvodka

Jdub I get. Chet IMO they signed a year early. He's risky and they could have waited a year. They'll have to be strategic with the rest of their roster moves and $.

I agree re Chet. He’s shown flashes of being a max guy, but not sustained enough yet. But that’s the way of NBA contracts.

Also, would love to see him put on 30 pounds of muscle this summer. He’d keep his mobility but not be as big an injury risk.