Markets are trending down - But how far and for how long?

[JRX]

Originally Posted by jduds

No sure if you are joking about Carter being crappy or old and likely to have a bump on his passing. Oddly, I've delved a bit into the rabbit hole of presidential sigs. Carter has signed a ton, because he wrote a ton. I get my dad presidential signed books as presents, but keep skipping Carter as too common.

Maybe he figures if we have runaway inflation it will make people nostalgic for carter.

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[CharlieHustle]

You haven't seen anything yet.
The big "correction" (because how dare I call it a bubble), doesn't happen until Fall.

10 million slabs coming back from PSA, alone.
This forum has taken that number too lightly, probably because it's such a comically large number that nobody is really grasping it.
This hobby can't absorb that many slabs, for profit, at once. and I heavily stress the "at once" part. People weren't sending in dozens/hundreds of cards to PSA, so that they could sit on them as lifelong keepsakes. When those submissions come back, they're going for sale. The slide in Gem prices will have a correlative effect on wax prices.

Vintage will slide through, relatively unscathed. The only real question there will be, "what years are considered vintage now"? Pre 85?

[anusinha]

Originally Posted by CharlieHustle

You haven't seen anything yet.
The big "correction" (because how dare I call it a bubble), doesn't happen until Fall.

10 million slabs coming back from PSA, alone.
This forum has taken that number too lightly, probably because it's such a comically large number that nobody is really grasping it.
This hobby can't absorb that many slabs, for profit, at once. and I heavily stress the "at once" part. People weren't sending in dozens/hundreds of cards to PSA, so that they could sit on them as lifelong keepsakes. When those submissions come back, they're going for sale. The slide in Gem prices will have a correlative effect on wax prices.

Vintage will slide through, relatively unscathed. The only real question there will be, "what years are considered vintage now"? Pre 85?

yup this guy gets it. People are already dumping anything that has a high pop report... what happens when 10 million slabs get dumped into the market in the span of 6-8 months?

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by CharlieHustle

You haven't seen anything yet.
The big "correction" (because how dare I call it a bubble), doesn't happen until Fall.

10 million slabs coming back from PSA, alone.
This forum has taken that number too lightly, probably because it's such a comically large number that nobody is really grasping it.
This hobby can't absorb that many slabs, for profit, at once. and I heavily stress the "at once" part. People weren't sending in dozens/hundreds of cards to PSA, so that they could sit on them as lifelong keepsakes. When those submissions come back, they're going for sale. The slide in Gem prices will have a correlative effect on wax prices.

Vintage will slide through, relatively unscathed. The only real question there will be, "what years are considered vintage now"? Pre 85?

If you're buying big enough cards, 2018 would be vintage at this point. The danger zone is cards that weren't getting graded before the boom but did get graded after - those are going to get killed.

[JRX]

Is there any sense what makes up that 10m? How much is baseball, basketball, pokemon etc? Is it 9m 89 upper deck griffeys? Lol

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[mfw13]

Originally Posted by CharlieHustle

You haven't seen anything yet.
The big "correction" (because how dare I call it a bubble), doesn't happen until Fall.

10 million slabs coming back from PSA, alone.
This forum has taken that number too lightly, probably because it's such a comically large number that nobody is really grasping it.
This hobby can't absorb that many slabs, for profit, at once. and I heavily stress the "at once" part. People weren't sending in dozens/hundreds of cards to PSA, so that they could sit on them as lifelong keepsakes. When those submissions come back, they're going for sale. The slide in Gem prices will have a correlative effect on wax prices.

Vintage will slide through, relatively unscathed. The only real question there will be, "what years are considered vintage now"? Pre 85?

I would also note that given the increasing questions about the accuracy of PSA's grading, it's possible that the premium people are willing to pay may decrease somewhat.

If PSA 10 used to equal 5x PSA 9, but now people are only willing to pay 3x PSA 9, that's a pretty significant drop in prices.

[JeremyNick]

Originally Posted by anusinha

yup this guy gets it. People are already dumping anything that has a high pop report... what happens when 10 million slabs get dumped into the market in the span of 6-8 months?

What happens when the expected prices on those slabs is 1/2 to 1/4 of what it was 10 months prior even before they hit the oversaturated market?

[LVDan]

Originally Posted by mfw13

I would also note that given the increasing questions about the accuracy of PSA's grading, it's possible that the premium people are willing to pay may decrease somewhat.

If PSA 10 used to equal 5x PSA 9, but now people are only willing to pay 3x PSA 9, that's a pretty significant drop in prices.

Quite possible that the timing of their shutdown and significant price hikes right before a market correction could backfire and open the door to cheaper and more consistently graded alternatives in the next couple years.
Maybe


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[CharlieHustle]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

What happens when the expected prices on those slabs is 1/2 to 1/4 of what it was 10 months prior even before they hit the oversaturated market?

The undercutting continues.

My theory, is that those who are new to this racket won't take cost into account when they go to sell their slabs.

for example, I spend $5k buying cards to send in to PSA.
7 months goes by and I've forgotten that I put $5k into cards.
Open box from PSA, sell cards for $3k.
"Hey I made $3k selling cards today".

I don't think there will initially be much nervous selling going on. Just a bunch of dudes turning $1400 worth of stimulus into $800 worth of paypal.

[tyrith]

Originally Posted by CharlieHustle

The undercutting continues.

My theory, is that those who are new to this racket won't take cost into account when they go to sell their slabs.

for example, I spend $5k buying cards to send in to PSA.
7 months goes by and I've forgotten that I put $5k into cards.
Open box from PSA, sell cards for $3k.
"Hey I made $3k selling cards today".

I don't think there will initially be much nervous selling going on. Just a bunch of dudes turning $1400 worth of stimulus into $800 worth of paypal.

If you don't want the slabs to collect and you don't expect prices to rebound for years, you can either have 3K or not have 3K. It's sunk costs now.

[CharlieHustle]

Originally Posted by tyrith

If you don't want the slabs to collect and you don't expect prices to rebound for years, you can either have 3K or not have 3K. It's sunk costs noow.

No kidding?
I wish I would have seen the writing on the wall 90 days ago.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by CharlieHustle

10 million slabs coming back from PSA, alone. This forum has taken that number too lightly, probably because it's such a comically large number that nobody is really grasping it.
This hobby can't absorb that many slabs, for profit, at once. and I heavily stress the "at once" part.

The majority isn't baseball. Stuff that was already heavily graded before the stoppage won't be affected much by this which is most cards that were $10+ raw from 2019 and earlier.

[corockies]

Originally Posted by CharlieHustle

You haven't seen anything yet.
The big "correction" (because how dare I call it a bubble), doesn't happen until Fall.

10 million slabs coming back from PSA, alone.
This forum has taken that number too lightly, probably because it's such a comically large number that nobody is really grasping it.
This hobby can't absorb that many slabs, for profit, at once. and I heavily stress the "at once" part. People weren't sending in dozens/hundreds of cards to PSA, so that they could sit on them as lifelong keepsakes. When those submissions come back, they're going for sale. The slide in Gem prices will have a correlative effect on wax prices.

Vintage will slide through, relatively unscathed. The only real question there will be, "what years are considered vintage now"? Pre 85?

This is why low serial #ed stuff is good to collect. You always know exactly how many there are of any given card that's serial #ed.

[CharlieHustle]

Originally Posted by BBases31

The majority isn't baseball. Stuff that was already heavily graded before the stoppage won't be affected much by this which is most cards that were $10+ raw from 2019 and earlier.

Let's assume that's correct.
Do you truly believe that BK,FB, Wrestling, UFC and comic cards will all sink, but baseball will hold strong?
I'm legitimately asking.

[BBases31]

Originally Posted by CharlieHustle

Let's assume that's correct.
Do you truly believe that BK,FB, Wrestling, UFC and comic cards will all sink, but baseball will hold strong?
I'm legitimately asking.

I don't really care what any of those do and they aren't affecting whether cards I buy or own(modern singles of active players) go up or down. When guys perform, cards go up, and when they disappoint, they go down.

[anusinha]

Originally Posted by CharlieHustle

Let's assume that's correct.
Do you truly believe that BK,FB, Wrestling, UFC and comic cards will all sink, but baseball will hold strong?
I'm legitimately asking.

I think Jewcer mentioned that a significant amount was mosaic and chronicles. So I assume its basketball and football thats the big chunk of the backlog.

[Oriole Way]

Originally Posted by anusinha

I think Jewcer mentioned that a significant amount was mosaic and chronicles. So I assume its basketball and football thats the big chunk of the backlog.

Exactly. The flippers, sneakerheads, crypto guys, Gary V followers and stimulus spenders jumped on board because of basketball - period. I wouldn't be surprised if the backlog at PSA is 60-75% basketball. The "bubble" blew up because of basketball, and as it bursts, basketball will be - by far - the most affected.

[Cavaliercards]

Originally Posted by Oriole Way

Exactly. The flippers, sneakerheads, crypto guys, Gary V followers and stimulus spenders jumped on board because of basketball - period. I wouldn't be surprised if the backlog at PSA is 60-75% basketball. The "bubble" blew up because of basketball, and as it bursts, basketball will be - by far - the most affected.

And when it bursts it will still be a higher market than before it started, so end result = gains and many people will stay in (more than people realize)

[Cavaliercards]

Originally Posted by JeremyNick

What happens when the expected prices on those slabs is 1/2 to 1/4 of what it was 10 months prior even before they hit the oversaturated market?

Going to depend are the guys in season or not?

[Cardashian80]

Originally Posted by anusinha

yup this guy gets it. People are already dumping anything that has a high pop report... what happens when 10 million slabs get dumped into the market in the span of 6-8 months?

Absolutely. There is about to be a seismic shift in population counts. People are not going to know what hit them. Low pop stuff (x<200) will come out unscathed. Vintage will remain vintage. Ultra modern will be junk slab. Why?!?!? Not enough buyers for that much product.


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[Cardashian80]

Originally Posted by JRX

Is there any sense what makes up that 10m? How much is baseball, basketball, pokemon etc? Is it 9m 89 upper deck griffeys? Lol

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89 Griffey’s, Luca, Ja..are all going to tank.


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[blackbears86]

Originally Posted by CharlieHustle

You haven't seen anything yet.
The big "correction" (because how dare I call it a bubble), doesn't happen until Fall.

10 million slabs coming back from PSA, alone.
This forum has taken that number too lightly, probably because it's such a comically large number that nobody is really grasping it.
This hobby can't absorb that many slabs, for profit, at once. and I heavily stress the "at once" part. People weren't sending in dozens/hundreds of cards to PSA, so that they could sit on them as lifelong keepsakes. When those submissions come back, they're going for sale. The slide in Gem prices will have a correlative effect on wax prices.

Vintage will slide through, relatively unscathed. The only real question there will be, "what years are considered vintage now"? Pre 85?

I agree with you except for this.


Personally, I will not touch vintage anymore as I literally think almost anything could be trimmed/altered. Even low end cards.


I can only speak for myself on this.



My only faith in vintage right now is unopened wrapped by BBCE or unopened graded packs.

[thenwhatjk]

Does anyone know if sneakers have been hurting lately like cards and crypto? I would assume so but have no idea

[jkampis]

Originally Posted by AstrosFan17

What, exactly, is so dumb about that post??????

Seems EXACTLY spot on to me.

I run a card shop. I have people come in all the time who tell me they got back into the hobby in the past year. We are talking about 40something males, dads and kids, buying singles of their favorite players, ripping the occasional hobby pack. They are collectors, and they are either new or returning to the hobby. It’s not just investors pumping up the market. Collectors are spending that money too.

[BaseballKing]

Originally Posted by CharlieHustle

The undercutting continues.

My theory, is that those who are new to this racket won't take cost into account when they go to sell their slabs.

for example, I spend $5k buying cards to send in to PSA.
7 months goes by and I've forgotten that I put $5k into cards.
Open box from PSA, sell cards for $3k.
"Hey I made $3k selling cards today".

I don't think there will initially be much nervous selling going on. Just a bunch of dudes turning $1400 worth of stimulus into $800 worth of paypal.

Your posts are a bit too pessimistic imo.

I'm currently awaiting two subs with over 30 cards. Most of the cards in those subs are from players like Soto, Acuna and Tatis all of which I pulled at release time, and the other stuff is mostly soccer which I bought on the secondary market before prices went really high and which will be extremely liquid and valuable come the World cup next year.

People who sent in tons of base NBA late last year( my first sub which is nearly ready was from September) and paid good money for them raw will be probably taking significant paper losses and perhaps they do not sell.

As OP said this backlog could have tons of Pokemon, Vintage, etc. and many people will have graded for medium to long term. The full time NBA flippers might get burnt and that is not altogether a bad thing.

To suggest that suddenly the market will be awash with slabs and it will be a race to the bottom to liquidate them is too much doom mongering. It won't happen imo.

Watch PSA get bombarded when they fully re-open again.