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BASEBALL Post your Baseball Cards Hobby Talk |
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#401 |
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You mean the market that has exploded the past couple years? Sure it'll make the set a little tougher. But it'll take a lot more than that to kill it. It's also possible this change will make it even more popular. A lot of collectors like a challenge.
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I collect all Oregon State alumni. |
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#402 |
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Topps responded to questions on Twitter about whether or not we'll see the checklist today and Topps' response was, "Might be tomorrow"
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#403 | |
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Join Date: Feb 2008
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Topps and there checklists... ![]() I'm passing on multiple products in 2017 because of no checklists until last minute... Somebody is opening retail in the next day or so and would not be shocked if someone was ripping hobby this weekend.. Monday 100% sure So it has to be soon |
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#404 | |
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With there only being like 5-10 copies of each card in hobby ...Meaning ssp/variations like throwback, color swaps etc are limited to a print run so as production goes up, all the ssp/variations get tougher to pull as well You may be thinking heritage high on the color swaps since production is less 2013 error 1:1,567 trade - did not exist throwback 1:13,058 (only the nationals, so smaller set size) action 1:26 color swap 1:155 2014 error 1:1,473 trade 1:1,473 throwback 1:3,175 action 1:23 color swap 1:135 2015 error 1:840 trade 1:2,310 throwback 1:3,310 action 1:24 color swap 1:140 2015 high number action 1:22 color swap 1:76
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Brent Twitter: @brentandbecca eBay: brentandbecca |
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#405 | |
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I mean unless it's a distributor or something, but who does that?
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Brent Twitter: @brentandbecca eBay: brentandbecca |
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#406 |
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Assuming 25 card set for throwbacks again, looks like only 7 copies of each Throwback card in the entire hobby production run
If retail doubles that, then could be 15 total of each In 2015 there were 10 of each in hobby based on the hobby print run Last year we thought maybe only 5 on how tough they were in hobby
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Brent Twitter: @brentandbecca eBay: brentandbecca |
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#407 | |
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Good info Brent Thanks as always. |
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#408 |
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i have multiples of every pack wrapper since 2001. Both retail and hobby (and some blasters) and yes...the odds are different between hobby and retail for certain items in certain years. For example chrome seeding has varied by retail/hobby/blaster. Now with jumbos the last 4-5 years, its even more complicated. the gold and the cut sigs are the main ways to tell the number of hobby packs produced. all other indicators are inconclusive.
The other complication is that topps doesn't "pack-out" every single high end card. some are held back for NPN, and other issues like replacements, etc. its an inexact science, but every year i do the math, and there are many different pieces of information to cross-correllate. don't have my spreadsheets here with me, except for 2015, and that one indicated that there were about 878k hobby packs ~3000 cases. Last edited by parkerj33; 02-21-2017 at 03:26 PM. |
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#409 | |
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Which ones are these?
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It’s prolly a 70/49 split. -Mike TheCleaner |
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#410 | |
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Aren't cut sigs listed on retail packs? I thought only golds and supers would be the way to tell hobby production.
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It’s prolly a 70/49 split. -Mike TheCleaner |
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#411 | |
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the golds have been the main way to determine the hobby cases the past few years like you said with 2015 coming in at 3,055 cases roughly Yes, big hits are held back I was once told that the odds are based on the entire print run and what is actually packed out though so while there may be 5 of each gold made, they may have held back 1 of each player or something, so yes, calculations aren't exact, just a best estimate same with the throwbacks, I was always told there were 25 of each made and while numbers used to indicate right around that number, lately it has been closer to 10-15 the best couple of years, but retail and various SKUs have made it more difficult to determine, but they do hold back throwbacks as well, that i know for a fact, how many, no clue, 1-2 per player or 5-10?
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Brent Twitter: @brentandbecca eBay: brentandbecca |
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#412 |
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those are the ones that simply say traded on the back in the player's bio
they did it to start mimicking the original set traded/errors, and have continued it
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Brent Twitter: @brentandbecca eBay: brentandbecca |
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#413 |
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OK, for the math nerds out there here goes, what else is there to do while we wait?
I will have to dig out my previous years analyses, but here's 2015: in 2015 here were the hobby only items: triple auto 1:35000 #/5 * 5 subjects = 875k packs dual auto 1:3515 #/25 * 10 = 879k packs gold ref 1:1760 #5 * 100 = 880k packs dual CC auto relic 1:17515 #/10 * 2 = 350k packs (guessing there were 5 not 2) quarter relic 1:17515 #/5 * 10 = 875k packs nickel relic 2940 1:2940 #/15 * 20 = 882k packs dime relic 5875 1:5875 #/10 * 15 = 881k packs half dollar relic 1:168100 #/1 * 5 = 840k packs action image variation 24 #/??? * 25 (at 840kpacks 1400 each action) boxloader punchboard 1:37 boxes #/50 * 50 = 888k packs boxloader jumbo patch 1:85 boxes #/25 * (17) = 867,000 packs boxloader autograph 1:361 boxes #/10 * 10 = 866,400 packs boxloader jumbo patch auto 1:361 boxes #/10 * 10 = 866,400 packs somewhere between 840k and 880k packs...864k packs = 3000 cases |
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#414 |
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Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 10,007
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Nice to see the heritage thread get some wheels today. Good stuff everyone.
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Buying Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins Autos and Rare RC's
Buying Syracuse Active Football/Basketball Alumni |
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#415 |
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Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 5,619
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Brent
Who at topps is telling you print runs of unnumbered ssp's? Kevin
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#417 |
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one more note on the wrapper odds....for certain items, like autographs, i believe they planned for certain numbers of signees when they printed the wrapper, but then some fall through, and actually are never created. thats why the best indicators are the mint coins and the gold refs, as those are controlled by topps, not by third parties waiting for them to sign.
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#418 |
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#419 |
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Join Date: May 2010
Location: United States
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Would you guys take the plunge on a couple of cases at $790 per? I'm am split on whether to go for it or not.
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#421 |
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Wait a month. $790 is steep.
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#422 | |
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Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 17,352
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And while the market for case-breaking has exploded due to the increasing number of gamblers chasing the SSP's, I've seen no evidence whatsoever that more people are building the sets. Last edited by mfw13; 02-21-2017 at 04:51 PM. |
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#423 |
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#424 | |
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Join Date: Jan 2017
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Was wondering, does anyone have a spreadsheet they can PM me if they keep track of their hits for each product, price if they sell, parallels, etc.? I have one but seems like some of you guys have been breaking for 5+ years and may have a better format.... |
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#425 |
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It just seems to me that odds are not in your favor versus years past. $790 only makes sense if it's a monster checklist. I think it'll be a very solid checklist, I just don't know that it'll be amazing.
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