Blowout Cards Forums
AD Heritage

Go Back   Blowout Cards Forums > BLOWOUTS HOBBY TALK > BASEBALL

Notices

BASEBALL Post your Baseball Cards Hobby Talk

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-21-2017, 02:42 PM   #401
GoBeavs
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Corvallis, OR
Posts: 4,955
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by mfw13 View Post
100 SP's with the ratio remaining at 1:3 is going to start to kill the set-building market. Just makes it all that more expensive...
You mean the market that has exploded the past couple years? Sure it'll make the set a little tougher. But it'll take a lot more than that to kill it. It's also possible this change will make it even more popular. A lot of collectors like a challenge.
__________________
I collect all Oregon State alumni.
GoBeavs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2017, 02:46 PM   #402
rutgersjpm
Member
 
rutgersjpm's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: NJ
Posts: 6,205
Default

Topps responded to questions on Twitter about whether or not we'll see the checklist today and Topps' response was, "Might be tomorrow"
__________________
https://www.instagram.com/thebeardsbreaks
rutgersjpm is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2017, 02:52 PM   #403
kyle1707
Member
 
kyle1707's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 20,422
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by rutgersjpm View Post
Topps responded to questions on Twitter about whether or not we'll see the checklist today and Topps' response was, "Might be tomorrow"

Topps and there checklists...

I'm passing on multiple products in 2017 because of no checklists until last minute...

Somebody is opening retail in the next day or so and would not be shocked if someone was ripping hobby this weekend.. Monday 100% sure

So it has to be soon
kyle1707 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2017, 02:54 PM   #404
brentandbecca
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 5,441
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by kyle1707 View Post
Good to know.. they seemed much easier in 2016 high

i pulled 2 in 5 cases

I must also always beat the odds on swaps then...
I have never pulled more than 2 throwbacks in any of my TH breaks of 40 cases (but I've been unlucky and never hit the odds on those; plus last year, retail seemed to have them later on vs. the earlier hobby cases as it took a long time to find them all)
With there only being like 5-10 copies of each card in hobby
...Meaning ssp/variations like throwback, color swaps etc are limited to a print run so as production goes up, all the ssp/variations get tougher to pull as well
You may be thinking heritage high on the color swaps since production is less

2013
error 1:1,567
trade - did not exist
throwback 1:13,058 (only the nationals, so smaller set size)
action 1:26
color swap 1:155

2014
error 1:1,473
trade 1:1,473
throwback 1:3,175
action 1:23
color swap 1:135

2015
error 1:840
trade 1:2,310
throwback 1:3,310
action 1:24
color swap 1:140

2015 high number
action 1:22
color swap 1:76
__________________
Brent
Twitter: @brentandbecca
eBay: brentandbecca
brentandbecca is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2017, 02:56 PM   #405
brentandbecca
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 5,441
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by kyle1707 View Post
Topps and there checklists...

I'm passing on multiple products in 2017 because of no checklists until last minute...

Somebody is opening retail in the next day or so and would not be shocked if someone was ripping hobby this weekend.. Monday 100% sure

So it has to be soon
I doubt anyone is ripping this weekend, that just seems so early to have hobby
I mean unless it's a distributor or something, but who does that?
__________________
Brent
Twitter: @brentandbecca
eBay: brentandbecca
brentandbecca is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2017, 02:59 PM   #406
brentandbecca
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 5,441
Default

Assuming 25 card set for throwbacks again, looks like only 7 copies of each Throwback card in the entire hobby production run
If retail doubles that, then could be 15 total of each

In 2015 there were 10 of each in hobby based on the hobby print run
Last year we thought maybe only 5 on how tough they were in hobby
__________________
Brent
Twitter: @brentandbecca
eBay: brentandbecca
brentandbecca is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2017, 03:08 PM   #407
kyle1707
Member
 
kyle1707's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 20,422
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by brentandbecca View Post
Assuming 25 card set for throwbacks again, looks like only 7 copies of each Throwback card in the entire hobby production run
If retail doubles that, then could be 15 total of each

In 2015 there were 10 of each in hobby based on the hobby print run
Last year we thought maybe only 5 on how tough they were in hobby

Good info Brent

Thanks as always.
kyle1707 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2017, 03:14 PM   #408
parkerj33
Member
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Manlius, NY
Posts: 1,864
Default

i have multiples of every pack wrapper since 2001. Both retail and hobby (and some blasters) and yes...the odds are different between hobby and retail for certain items in certain years. For example chrome seeding has varied by retail/hobby/blaster. Now with jumbos the last 4-5 years, its even more complicated. the gold and the cut sigs are the main ways to tell the number of hobby packs produced. all other indicators are inconclusive.

The other complication is that topps doesn't "pack-out" every single high end card. some are held back for NPN, and other issues like replacements, etc. its an inexact science, but every year i do the math, and there are many different pieces of information to cross-correllate. don't have my spreadsheets here with me, except for 2015, and that one indicated that there were about 878k hobby packs ~3000
cases.

Last edited by parkerj33; 02-21-2017 at 03:26 PM.
parkerj33 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2017, 03:21 PM   #409
mfisher27
Member
 
mfisher27's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: North Canton, OH
Posts: 5,472
Default

Which ones are these?

Quote:
Originally Posted by brentandbecca View Post
I have never pulled more than 2 throwbacks in any of my TH breaks of 40 cases (but I've been unlucky and never hit the odds on those; plus last year, retail seemed to have them later on vs. the earlier hobby cases as it took a long time to find them all)
With there only being like 5-10 copies of each card in hobby
...Meaning ssp/variations like throwback, color swaps etc are limited to a print run so as production goes up, all the ssp/variations get tougher to pull as well
You may be thinking heritage high on the color swaps since production is less

2013
error 1:1,567
trade - did not exist
throwback 1:13,058 (only the nationals, so smaller set size)
action 1:26
color swap 1:155

2014
error 1:1,473
trade 1:1,473
throwback 1:3,175
action 1:23
color swap 1:135

2015
error 1:840
trade 1:2,310
throwback 1:3,310
action 1:24
color swap 1:140

2015 high number
action 1:22
color swap 1:76
__________________
It’s prolly a 70/49 split.
-Mike TheCleaner
mfisher27 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2017, 03:22 PM   #410
mfisher27
Member
 
mfisher27's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: North Canton, OH
Posts: 5,472
Default

Aren't cut sigs listed on retail packs? I thought only golds and supers would be the way to tell hobby production.

Quote:
Originally Posted by parkerj33 View Post
i have multiples of every pack wrapper since 2001. Both retail and hobby (and some blasters) and yes...the odds are different between hobby and retail for certain items in certain years. For example chrome seeding has varied by retail/hobby/blaster. Now with jumbos the last 4-5 years, its even more complicated. the gold and the cut sigs are the main ways to tell the number of hobby packs produced. all other indicators are inconclusive.
__________________
It’s prolly a 70/49 split.
-Mike TheCleaner
mfisher27 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2017, 03:35 PM   #411
brentandbecca
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 5,441
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by parkerj33 View Post
i have multiples of every pack wrapper since 2001. Both retail and hobby (and some blasters) and yes...the odds are different between hobby and retail for certain items in certain years. For example chrome seeding has varied by retail/hobby/blaster. Now with jumbos the last 4-5 years, its even more complicated. the gold and the cut sigs are the main ways to tell the number of hobby packs produced. all other indicators are inconclusive.

The other complication is that topps doesn't "pack-out" every single high end card. some are held back for NPN, and other issues like replacements, etc. its an inexact science, but every year i do the math, and there are many different pieces of information to cross-correllate. don't have my spreadsheets here with me, except for 2015, and that one indicated that there were about 878k hobby packs ~3000
cases.
agree, most releases, not just TH, Topps varies the odds on parallels such as chromes in TH

the golds have been the main way to determine the hobby cases the past few years like you said
with 2015 coming in at 3,055 cases roughly

Yes, big hits are held back
I was once told that the odds are based on the entire print run and what is actually packed out though
so while there may be 5 of each gold made, they may have held back 1 of each player or something, so yes, calculations aren't exact, just a best estimate

same with the throwbacks, I was always told there were 25 of each made and while numbers used to indicate right around that number, lately it has been closer to 10-15 the best couple of years, but retail and various SKUs have made it more difficult to determine, but they do hold back throwbacks as well, that i know for a fact, how many, no clue, 1-2 per player or 5-10?
__________________
Brent
Twitter: @brentandbecca
eBay: brentandbecca
brentandbecca is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2017, 03:36 PM   #412
brentandbecca
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 5,441
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by mfisher27 View Post
Which ones are these?
those are the ones that simply say traded on the back in the player's bio
they did it to start mimicking the original set traded/errors, and have continued it
__________________
Brent
Twitter: @brentandbecca
eBay: brentandbecca
brentandbecca is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2017, 03:42 PM   #413
parkerj33
Member
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Manlius, NY
Posts: 1,864
Default

OK, for the math nerds out there here goes, what else is there to do while we wait?

I will have to dig out my previous years analyses, but here's 2015:

in 2015 here were the hobby only items:
triple auto 1:35000 #/5 * 5 subjects = 875k packs
dual auto 1:3515 #/25 * 10 = 879k packs
gold ref 1:1760 #5 * 100 = 880k packs
dual CC auto relic 1:17515 #/10 * 2 = 350k packs (guessing there were 5 not 2)
quarter relic 1:17515 #/5 * 10 = 875k packs
nickel relic 2940 1:2940 #/15 * 20 = 882k packs
dime relic 5875 1:5875 #/10 * 15 = 881k packs
half dollar relic 1:168100 #/1 * 5 = 840k packs
action image variation 24 #/??? * 25 (at 840kpacks 1400 each action)
boxloader punchboard 1:37 boxes #/50 * 50 = 888k packs
boxloader jumbo patch 1:85 boxes #/25 * (17) = 867,000 packs
boxloader autograph 1:361 boxes #/10 * 10 = 866,400 packs
boxloader jumbo patch auto 1:361 boxes #/10 * 10 = 866,400 packs

somewhere between 840k and 880k packs...864k packs = 3000 cases
parkerj33 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2017, 04:00 PM   #414
Dbacksbaseball
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 10,007
Default

Nice to see the heritage thread get some wheels today. Good stuff everyone.
__________________
Buying Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins Autos and Rare RC's
Buying Syracuse Active Football/Basketball Alumni
Dbacksbaseball is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2017, 04:18 PM   #415
HeritageKing
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 5,619
Default

Brent

Who at topps is telling you print runs of unnumbered ssp's?

Kevin
__________________
#2 Topps Heritage Autograph Collector
HeritageKing is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2017, 04:21 PM   #416
Bhenry4
Member
 
Bhenry4's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Charm City
Posts: 13,993
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by HeritageKing View Post
Brent

Who at topps is telling you print runs of unnumbered ssp's?

Kevin
If he tells you, he'll have to kill you.
__________________
Viva John Ryno
Bhenry4 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2017, 04:27 PM   #417
parkerj33
Member
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Manlius, NY
Posts: 1,864
Default

one more note on the wrapper odds....for certain items, like autographs, i believe they planned for certain numbers of signees when they printed the wrapper, but then some fall through, and actually are never created. thats why the best indicators are the mint coins and the gold refs, as those are controlled by topps, not by third parties waiting for them to sign.
parkerj33 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2017, 04:28 PM   #418
daviswr7
Member
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Dagobah
Posts: 7,470
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by HeritageKing View Post
Brent

Who at topps is telling you print runs of unnumbered ssp's?

Kevin
lol. yea your defiantly privy to that info. GL
daviswr7 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2017, 04:29 PM   #419
kyle121592
Member
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: United States
Posts: 3,407
Default

Would you guys take the plunge on a couple of cases at $790 per? I'm am split on whether to go for it or not.
kyle121592 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2017, 04:33 PM   #420
chezball
Member
 
chezball's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: North East Beatoff USA
Posts: 21,679
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by kyle121592 View Post
Would you guys take the plunge on a couple of cases at $790 per? I'm am split on whether to go for it or not.
Couple no, maybe one.
chezball is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2017, 04:37 PM   #421
rutgersjpm
Member
 
rutgersjpm's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: NJ
Posts: 6,205
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by kyle121592 View Post
Would you guys take the plunge on a couple of cases at $790 per? I'm am split on whether to go for it or not.
Wait a month. $790 is steep.
__________________
https://www.instagram.com/thebeardsbreaks
rutgersjpm is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2017, 04:44 PM   #422
mfw13
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 17,352
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GoBeavs View Post
You mean the market that has exploded the past couple years? Sure it'll make the set a little tougher. But it'll take a lot more than that to kill it. It's also possible this change will make it even more popular. A lot of collectors like a challenge.
Everyone likes challenges to some extent....but not necessarily challenges which needlessly make a product more expensive to complete without making the product any better. There's a point at which collectors simply say, "this product isn't worth the cost", irrespective of whether they are building the set themselves or buying a master set from a case-breaker.

And while the market for case-breaking has exploded due to the increasing number of gamblers chasing the SSP's, I've seen no evidence whatsoever that more people are building the sets.

Last edited by mfw13; 02-21-2017 at 04:51 PM.
mfw13 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2017, 04:49 PM   #423
chezball
Member
 
chezball's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: North East Beatoff USA
Posts: 21,679
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by rutgersjpm View Post
Wait a month. $790 is steep.
It's all relative, if the prices go down so does the prices you'll get for the hits.
Unless you hit a monster and one monster buyer is not buying this year KO.
chezball is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2017, 05:09 PM   #424
PDCCollectibles
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 5,077
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by brentandbecca View Post
I doubt anyone is ripping this weekend, that just seems so early to have hobby
I mean unless it's a distributor or something, but who does that?
Weekend is early for retail, let alone Hobby....usually see retail out the Monday before a Wednesday release....but that's just my area.

Was wondering, does anyone have a spreadsheet they can PM me if they keep track of their hits for each product, price if they sell, parallels, etc.? I have one but seems like some of you guys have been breaking for 5+ years and may have a better format....
PDCCollectibles is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-21-2017, 05:11 PM   #425
rutgersjpm
Member
 
rutgersjpm's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: NJ
Posts: 6,205
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by chezball View Post
It's all relative, if the prices go down so does the prices you'll get for the hits.
Unless you hit a monster and one monster buyer is not buying this year KO.
It just seems to me that odds are not in your favor versus years past. $790 only makes sense if it's a monster checklist. I think it'll be a very solid checklist, I just don't know that it'll be amazing.
__________________
https://www.instagram.com/thebeardsbreaks
rutgersjpm is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:10 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Copyright © 2019, Blowout Cards Inc.