Patrick Mahomes Prices

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by KardsC1

Not me..Josh is 0-4 to the chiefs in the playoffs ..Qb vs Qb is not a thing

oh now it's qb vs team just to dunk on Josh, lol

[Earlsnake07]

Nice pickup TJ...figured it was gold.....BEEEEAAAAUUUUTIFUL!!!

For the 1st time in a VERY long time I wasn't able to watch the KC game live....and sounds like I didn't miss anything. Its on my DVR, but not sure I even need to spend the hour to watch.

People who frequent this thread know the exact response the same few will come in with a loss, but will be like ghosts when its a W-----ohh well, keep ignoring them and eventually they will disappear (like their fans in a close game & their SB hopes towards the end of the year)

On to the Eagles.....hopefully some spit shields are worn by the players

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Earlsnake07

Nice pickup TJ...figured it was gold.....BEEEEAAAAUUUUTIFUL!!!

For the 1st time in a VERY long time I wasn't able to watch the KC game live....and sounds like I didn't miss anything. Its on my DVR, but not sure I even need to spend the hour to watch.

People who frequent this thread know the exact response the same few will come in with a loss, but will be like ghosts when its a W-----ohh well, keep ignoring them and eventually they will disappear (like their fans in a close game & their SB hopes towards the end of the year)

On to the Eagles.....hopefully some spit shields are worn by the players

It was one base quarter followed by 3 very good ones on offense, and a defense who couldn't get stops.

The way I'd explain it is that when Worthy got injured on the 3rd play, it took them the next 2 drives to figure out that their game plan wasn't going to work quite the way they planned it, and it was time to go back more to what they did the previous year.

That led to them scoring on all 5 drives they got from the 2nd quarter on. And therein lies the issue... they only got the ball 5 times after the first quarter.

Now all eyes on how they adjust next.

[kcroyalsfan8515]

Originally Posted by tjforce

It was one base quarter followed by 3 very good ones on offense, and a defense who couldn't get stops.

The way I'd explain it is that when Worthy got injured on the 3rd play, it took them the next 2 drives to figure out that their game plan wasn't going to work quite the way they planned it, and it was time to go back more to what they did the previous year.

That led to them scoring on all 5 drives they got from the 2nd quarter on. And therein lies the issue... they only got the ball 5 times after the first quarter.

Now all eyes on how they adjust next.

Mahomes was brilliant..kept him in the game all by himself..Dude is certainly still QB1.

Chiefs had 3 possessions in the 2nd half...Bills had 7 in 2nd half...5 in 4th quarter..Josh is amazing..Patrick was better in week 1 if u watched both games to me. Sunday will be tough

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by kcroyalsfan8515

Mahomes was brilliant..kept him in the game all by himself..Dude is certainly still QB1.

Chiefs had 3 possessions in the 2nd half...Bills had 7 in 2nd half...5 in 4th quarter..Josh is amazing..Patrick was better in week 1 if u watched both games to me. Sunday will be tough

It's why Mahomes is currently 8th in QBR after Week 1 and Allen 11th.

Not taking anything away from Allen, because he got the job done after his defense gave him the chance to.

As for this week: Eagles defense looked beatable vs Dallas... however, that was without Jalen Carter. Since the NFL made history today by counting a game in which a player got kicked out of a suspension game for the first time, he'll be playing Sunday. Hmm.

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by tjforce

It's why Mahomes is currently 8th in QBR after Week 1 and Allen 11th.

Not taking anything away from Allen, because he got the job done after his defense gave him the chance to.

As for this week: Eagles defense looked beatable vs Dallas... however, that was without Jalen Carter. Since the NFL made history today by counting a game in which a player got kicked out of a suspension game for the first time, he'll be playing Sunday. Hmm.

Josh Allen scored more points in 4th quarter than Mahomes did all game. QBR be damned

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by kcroyalsfan8515

Mahomes was brilliant..kept him in the game all by himself..Dude is certainly still QB1.

Chiefs had 3 possessions in the 2nd half...Bills had 7 in 2nd half...5 in 4th quarter..Josh is amazing..Patrick was better in week 1 if u watched both games to me. Sunday will be tough

A qb that scored 21 points and lost is better than a qb scored 41 points and won. Make it make sense

[2010GBPackers]

Originally Posted by Delta5

Josh Allen scored more points in 4th quarter than Mahomes did all game. QBR be damned

Yeah, the QBR rating is showing cracks, IMO. This week was indicative of that.

Mahomes: 61.5% -- 258 yards -- 6.6 y/a -- 1 TD/0 INT -- 81.8 QBR
J. Allen: 71.7% -- 394 yards -- 8.6 y/a -- 2 TD/ 0 INT -- 78.8 QBR
Rodgers: 73.3% -- 244 yards -- 8.8 y/a -- 4 TD/ 0 INT -- 62.6 QBR

Mahomes rushing: 6 carries, 57 yards, 1 TD
J. Allen rushing: 14 carries, 30 yards, 2 TD
Rodgers rushing: N/A

Now, I understand that QBR takes rushing stats into account, but it seems way too deferential to QB rushing stats - particularly QB yards/rush average.

TL; DR: J. Allen should have easily had a higher QBR than Mahomes last week.

[Earlsnake07]

Finally got a chance to watch the whole game last night. My takeaways...

Pass d is definitely struggling (as it always is this time of year) - and the d-line didn't get pressure like they needed to....granted JH was getting it out quick, and had WIDE OPEN receivers all game

Offense looked like they were just missing on several plays - a few to Thornton that could have been HR's.

Hollywood and PM are showing they are going to be relying on each other for a while. Other than the drop early in the game on a 3rd down, he did well

Taylor had another game with horrible penalties....not sure how much longer he will be starting if that continues, but not sure who replaces him either. Also....Creed did not have a good game at all blocking (PFF pass blocking grade was 48.2 - guessing the lowest of his career). I do not see that continuing.

The missed XP obviously hurt...then chasing points and not getting the 2 point conversion hurt (no idea why the hell TK wasn't on the field).

Lastly Chris Jones going inside on the JH 19 yard run was pretty bad....man d in the secondary and edge rushers KNOW they have outside contain......glad Tranquil called him out on that BS.

All that being said....KC had a shot to win. I heard from several people how bad they looked and TBH I didn't think it was anywhere near that level of bad.

1st time LAC has beat KC since 09/21....just sucks it was the 1st game of the season on a national stage

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

Yeah, the QBR rating is showing cracks, IMO. This week was indicative of that.

Mahomes: 61.5% -- 258 yards -- 6.6 y/a -- 1 TD/0 INT -- 81.8 QBR
J. Allen: 71.7% -- 394 yards -- 8.6 y/a -- 2 TD/ 0 INT -- 78.8 QBR
Rodgers: 73.3% -- 244 yards -- 8.8 y/a -- 4 TD/ 0 INT -- 62.6 QBR

Mahomes rushing: 6 carries, 57 yards, 1 TD
J. Allen rushing: 14 carries, 30 yards, 2 TD
Rodgers rushing: N/A

Now, I understand that QBR takes rushing stats into account, but it seems way too deferential to QB rushing stats - particularly QB yards/rush average.

TL; DR: J. Allen should have easily had a higher QBR than Mahomes last week.

I mean even eye test said so. It's wild how a qb can just score 21 points and somehow got a higher QBR than a qb who scored 41 points

Oh, and KC fans bringing up QBR when they lost is wild, oh how the table has turned

[oldgoldy97]

QBR is the made up ESPN stat, right?

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

Yeah, the QBR rating is showing cracks, IMO. This week was indicative of that.

Mahomes: 61.5% -- 258 yards -- 6.6 y/a -- 1 TD/0 INT -- 81.8 QBR
J. Allen: 71.7% -- 394 yards -- 8.6 y/a -- 2 TD/ 0 INT -- 78.8 QBR
Rodgers: 73.3% -- 244 yards -- 8.8 y/a -- 4 TD/ 0 INT -- 62.6 QBR

Mahomes rushing: 6 carries, 57 yards, 1 TD
J. Allen rushing: 14 carries, 30 yards, 2 TD
Rodgers rushing: N/A

Now, I understand that QBR takes rushing stats into account, but it seems way too deferential to QB rushing stats - particularly QB yards/rush average.

TL; DR: J. Allen should have easily had a higher QBR than Mahomes last week.

Originally Posted by oldgoldy97

QBR is the made up ESPN stat, right?

To be fair, the way I look at QBR is that it's "Better than QB Rating".

QB rating is a pretty meaningless stats now in the days of running QBs. It not only counts yards after catch the same as air yards, but it also totally ignores QB rushing. That's preposterous in this day and age when a guy like Lamar can rush for 900 yards, or Josh Allen for 12-15 TDs. It also treats a 60 yard hail mary INT the same as a 1st and Goal from the 1 INT. Just an antiquated stat.

The other thing about QBR is that it tends to paint a better picture over time than it does over just 1 game.


What your analysis up top is ignoring is opportunities and QB Contributions:

Yes, Allen had a lot more yards than Rodgers, but he had a lot more action plays: 64 for Allen compared to Rodgers 36. He better have a lot more yards an almost double the plays. Allen's total Points added was higher than Mahomes and Rodgers, but he got more plays.

The other piece your not taking into consideration that QBR does it running and Sacks. QB rushing yards are not treated the same as QB passing yards. The idea being that Allen throwing a dumpoff to James Cook than watching him juke his was 50 yards downfield is more attributed to Cook than if Allen too a run 50 yards himself. This really hurts Rodgers, who had -1 rush yards (which probably counted for 0 in QB because they ignore kneeldowns)

And finally, QBR is designed to measure not only total productions, but situation based production as well. High leverage plays like 3rd or 4th and long that are converted lead to a much higher Expected Points Added gained than a basic play on 1st and 10. There's also an adjustment made if the QB is under pressure, since Sacks are considered a QB stat here. So just imagine the EPA gain on 4th and 9 when Mahomes was under pressure then delivered a 49 yard bomb that was mostly air yards.

So I wont say that QBR is the perfect metric: none of them are. But it can be used as a more sophisticated tool to understanding QB performance, as long as you understand what the metric is measuring.

[imbluestreak23]

I am looking for my next Patty pickup as well.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by imbluestreak23

I am looking for my next Patty pickup as well.

I just added another one today, but I don't think I will be talking about it publicly for a long time. Fun time to be collecting.

[imbluestreak23]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I just added another one today, but I don't think I will be talking about it publicly for a long time. Fun time to be collecting.

Yeah I missed out on one today that I wanted and don't think they will pop up again too often. But there are some good options to pick through on Goldin right now. Hoping for a slow start to cause a little pullback in prices.

[JWBlue]

Originally Posted by 2010GBPackers

Mahomes: 61.5% -- 258 yards -- 6.6 y/a -- 1 TD/0 INT -- 81.8 QBR
J. Allen: 71.7% -- 394 yards -- 8.6 y/a -- 2 TD/ 0 INT -- 78.8 QBR
Rodgers: 73.3% -- 244 yards -- 8.8 y/a -- 4 TD/ 0 INT -- 62.6 QBR

I am still a believer in QBR. It takes more into account than surface statistics.

From ChatGPT :

1. Every Play is Analyzed

Unlike traditional passer rating, QBR includes all quarterback actions:

Passing

Rushing (scrambles, designed runs, sneaks)

Sacks taken

Turnovers (interceptions, fumbles)

Penalties drawn or committed by the QB

2. Context Matters

Plays are adjusted for down, distance, field position, score, and time remaining.

Example: A 5-yard completion on 3rd & 4 is worth more than the same throw on 3rd & 10, because it keeps the drive alive.

A touchdown in a tie game is weighted more heavily than one in garbage time when the team is up by 30.

3. Expected Points Added (EPA)

Each play is scored using Expected Points Added (EPA) — how much that play increased or decreased the team’s expected points based on historical outcomes.

For instance:

A sack on 3rd down that forces a punt has a large negative EPA.

A long completion into field-goal range has a strong positive EPA.

4. Credit is Shared

QBR adjusts for how much of the play was the QB’s doing versus teammates.

If a receiver takes a 2-yard screen 70 yards after the catch, most of that EPA credit goes to the receiver, not the QB.

If a QB evades pressure and delivers a perfect throw, more credit goes to him.

5. Win Probability Adjustment

Plays are also weighted by how much they affect the chances of winning the game.

Game-changing plays in high-leverage situations matter more than routine plays when the outcome is already decided.

6. Scale

After all adjustments, the result is normalized to a 0–100 scale:

50 = roughly league-average

65+ = Pro Bowl-level performance

80+ = MVP-caliber

90+ = nearly perfect game

👉 So in short:
ESPN QBR = a play-by-play, context-adjusted measure of how much a quarterback contributes to winning, using EPA, win probability, and teammate credit adjustments, scaled from 0 to 100.

Do you want me to break down an example play (say, a 15-yard completion on 3rd & 10 in the 4th quarter) and show how it would get translated into QBR?

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by JWBlue

I am still a believer in QBR. It takes more into account than surface statistics.

From ChatGPT :

I'd call it the 'best' Quarterback metric, but it's not the perfect Quarterback metric.

The most glaring example of why is because if your QB delivers a perfect throw but the pass catcher bobbles it in the air and it get picks off (think Kadarious Toney), then QBR treats it no differently than an underthrown ball into double coverage. Nor does this metric, or metric, at into account QB leadership qualities.

And that's what makes football the best sport in the world. There's no one stat or metric that by itself can tell the whole story.

[Brazenways]

Originally Posted by tjforce

I'd call it the 'best' Quarterback metric, but it's not the perfect Quarterback metric.

The most glaring example of why is because if your QB delivers a perfect throw but the pass catcher bobbles it in the air and it get picks off (think Kadarious Toney), then QBR treats it no differently than an underthrown ball into double coverage. Nor does this metric, or metric, at into account QB leadership qualities.

And that's what makes football the best sport in the world. There's no one stat or metric that by itself can tell the whole story.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Brazenways

Good logic...

Glad you've outed yourself as someone who puts Trent Dilfer and Nick Foles above Dan Marino, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson.

[Asian62150]

Originally Posted by Brazenways

I think that's the point.

Just having rings doesn't make you the GOAT, esp. in a team sport like football.

Brady's game and role on each team changed from Super Bowl to Super Bowl.

It's like Kobe in basketball. Sure, he has 5 rings. But it's lazy and ignorant to compare his 5 to MJ's 6 and think they're close just because of that one stat.

Not all rings (and even MVPs) are created equally.

[imbluestreak23]

The more that time goes on the more I
1) hate Brady
2) am convinced Peyton was better
3) love Patty

[CorndogWasp]

QBR is made up non-sense by boomers that don’t know ball. It’s a simple as that.

[CorndogWasp]

QBR was created for sports-political reasons. That’s its origin story.

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by CorndogWasp

QBR is made up non-sense by boomers that don’t know ball. It’s a simple as that.

So tell me why.

What about it makes it worse than looking at any other stat or metric out there.


Looking for technical answers here.

[CorndogWasp]

I don’t know because I’ve never tried to judge a QB based on stats because that’s now how being a good QB works.