2016 Politics Thread - Enter At Your Own Risk - All Politics & Dumb Opinions Here

[ssbledsoe]

Originally Posted by pgisback

You're wrong because I was talking about actual convention polling results. You're looking at an RCP graph which has a lag and does not properly indicate the success of either convention.

Your boy at 538 disagrees
Election Update: Trump Gets Convention Bounce, Drawing Polls To Dead Heat | FiveThirtyEight

[ssbledsoe]

Originally Posted by pgisback

You're wrong because I was talking about actual convention polling results. You're looking at an RCP graph which has a lag and does not properly indicate the success of either convention.

Nice ninja edit there. If the graph is erroneous, why post it

[pgisback]

Originally Posted by ssbledsoe

Nice ninja edit there. If the graph is erroneous, why post it

The graph isn't erroneous. It just has a lag.

[pgisback]

Originally Posted by ssbledsoe

Your boy at 538 disagrees
Election Update: Trump Gets Convention Bounce, Drawing Polls To Dead Heat | FiveThirtyEight

This was the comment I made...

"Trump was the first candidate in recorded history where people were less likely to vote for him based on his convention."

[jcardstore]

Guys, I said this before and I'll say it again. Don't engage him, you'll never be able to have a rational conversation.

Unfortunately, I showed a lack of self control and did not follow my own advice and was suspended because of it.

If everyone continues to engage him this thread will descend back into madness like it already is. Let him post his graphs and his hourly poll updates. He'll tire himself out eventually

[ssbledsoe]

Originally Posted by pgisback

This was the comment I made...

"Trump was the first candidate in recorded history where people were less likely to vote for him based on his convention."

Any chance you could link to the actual story so I can read the methods of the data collection, how long the "lag" occurs, what other information you might be leaving out, etc?

[pingbling23]

curious, why is donald favored over hillary so much on here?

[quackhead]

Originally Posted by ssbledsoe

Probably sent the "artifact" too

Which artifact, the Declaration of Independence or the Constitution?

[quackhead]

Originally Posted by spuds1961

Is it November yet.

You mean, is it September 26th yet? Hillary is gonna get reamed.

[pgisback]

Originally Posted by ssbledsoe

Any chance you could link to the actual story so I can read the methods of the data collection, how long the "lag" occurs, what other information you might be leaving out, etc?

The lag in the RCP graph is just logic. They have to wait for polls to be released before they update it and since it's just averages, you have to wait for almost a week to get what the reaction was from the week before.

As for Gallup...

"The results are based on Gallup polls conducted in the days immediately after each party's convention -- the Republican convention in Cleveland from July 18-21 and the Democratic convention in Philadelphia from July 25-28.

Americans' assessments of the effect of the conventions on their image of each party largely mirror their assessments of how the convention will affect their vote in the 2016 election. By 45% to 41%, Americans say they are more rather than less likely to vote for Hillary Clinton based on what they saw or read about the Democratic convention. In contrast, many more Americans said they were less likely (51%) rather than more likely (36%) to vote for Donald Trump as a result of what they saw or read about the Republican convention.

Gallup has asked this question about Democratic and Republican national conventions since 1984, with the exceptions of the 1984 and 1992 Republican conventions. The 2016 Republican convention is the first after which a greater percentage of Americans have said they are "less likely" rather than "more likely" to vote for the party's presidential nominee."


Americans More Positive About Democratic Than GOP Convention

[Boo]

Originally Posted by pingbling23

curious, why is donald favored over hillary so much on here?

Probably because of one or two people who act like total tools and fools.

[quackhead]

Originally Posted by pingbling23

curious, why is donald favored over hillary so much on here?

Polls show the majority of American voters want change. I'm guessing that is one of the reasons for the lack of support for Hillary.

[pingbling23]

Originally Posted by quackhead

Polls show the majority of American voters want change. I'm guessing that is one of the reasons for the lack of support for Hillary.

but you have pgis typing until he is blue in the hands talking about landslides and how hillary is killing trump. why is so different in the blowout poll?

[pgisback]

Originally Posted by pingbling23

but you have pgis typing until he is blue in the hands talking about landslides and how hillary is killing trump. why is so different in the blowout poll?

Demographics. There's one group of people that Donald Trump is absolutely destroying Hillary Clinton with by almost 40 pts, and I would imagine a sports card collecting site would consist of primarily that demographic.

[jcardstore]

Originally Posted by pingbling23

but you have pgis typing until he is blue in the hands talking about landslides and how hillary is killing trump. why is so different in the blowout poll?

Even though I voted neither, had I come into this thread and saw some people making a fool of themselves I would have voted for Trump just because.

Not saying other people are, but I'm sure there's some.

Oh yea, that demographic he's referring to is "uneducated white males" which he's referred to many times already in this thread. I guess we're just a bunch of uneducated losers lol

[ssbledsoe]

Originally Posted by pgisback

The lag in the RCP graph is just logic. They have to wait for polls to be released before they update it and since it's just averages, you have to wait for almost a week to get what the reaction was from the week before.

As for Gallup...

"The results are based on Gallup polls conducted in the days immediately after each party's convention -- the Republican convention in Cleveland from July 18-21 and the Democratic convention in Philadelphia from July 25-28.

Americans' assessments of the effect of the conventions on their image of each party largely mirror their assessments of how the convention will affect their vote in the 2016 election. By 45% to 41%, Americans say they are more rather than less likely to vote for Hillary Clinton based on what they saw or read about the Democratic convention. In contrast, many more Americans said they were less likely (51%) rather than more likely (36%) to vote for Donald Trump as a result of what they saw or read about the Republican convention.

Gallup has asked this question about Democratic and Republican national conventions since 1984, with the exceptions of the 1984 and 1992 Republican conventions. The 2016 Republican convention is the first after which a greater percentage of Americans have said they are "less likely" rather than "more likely" to vote for the party's presidential nominee."


Americans More Positive About Democratic Than GOP Convention

More from your boy at 538: The Myth of the ‘Lag’ | FiveThirtyEight

So much for "logic"...

[ssbledsoe]

Originally Posted by pgisback

Demographics. There's one group of people that Donald Trump is absolutely destroying Hillary Clinton with by almost 40 pts, and I would imagine a sports card collecting site would consist of primarily that demographic.

iMac, is that you

[pgisback]

Originally Posted by ssbledsoe

More from your boy at 538: The Myth of the ‘Lag’ | FiveThirtyEight

So much for "logic"...

He's talking about state poll lag vs national polls. It really is simple logic. He even mentions it in the article you posted.

"Conversely, some of the national tracking polls are actually not all that fresh. IBD/TIPP has a 5-day polling window. Battleground also has a 5-day polling window, and they don’t poll weekends, meaning that they’re usually including some data that is a full week old."

[quackhead]

Originally Posted by pingbling23

but you have pgis typing until he is blue in the hands talking about landslides and how hillary is killing trump. why is so different in the blowout poll?

Oh, your right, he is typing until he is blue. That smell you smell..................

[ssbledsoe]

Originally Posted by pgisback

He's talking about state poll lag vs national polls. It really is simple logic. He even mentions it in the article you posted.

"Conversely, some of the national tracking polls are actually not all that fresh. IBD/TIPP has a 5-day polling window. Battleground also has a 5-day polling window, and they don’t poll weekends, meaning that they’re usually including some data that is a full week old."

Nice job picking and choosing what quote to use:

This largely is not true today, however. Rasmussen and SurveyUSA, perhaps the two most prolific public pollsters, generally release their data no later than 24 hours after it has left the field; likewise with other pollsters like InsiderAdvantage and Public Policy Polling. A couple of other pollsters like Quinnipiac and Mason-Dixon will occasionally sit on a poll for 24-48 hours, but generally not more than that. Every now and then, you’ll have some small college or some fledgling marketing firm release a poll that is a couple of weeks old, but this is unusual, and it’s easy to notate the exceptions. Most of the big, business-savvy pollsters recognize the importance of timeliness in this era of 24/7 news cycles.

Note this is from an article that is 8 years old, too. It's not like these polls are still going out door to door in BFE Iowa...

[jlzinck]

Originally Posted by pgisback

Demographics. There's one group of people that Donald Trump is absolutely destroying Hillary Clinton with by almost 40 pts, and I would imagine a sports card collecting site would consist of primarily that demographic.

Nice dog whistle post

[jarrodsalas]

Originally Posted by jcardstore

Even though I voted neither, had I come into this thread and saw some people making a fool of themselves I would have voted for Trump just because.

Not saying other people are, but I'm sure there's some.

Oh yea, that demographic he's referring to is "uneducated white males" which he's referred to many times already in this thread. I guess we're just a bunch of uneducated losers lol

I would think that people that blow $$$ on sports cards have that expendable income for a reason.


Too bad I chose to attend A&M instead of a liberal arts university. Maybe then I would be classified as educated.

[pgisback]

Originally Posted by ssbledsoe

Nice job picking and choosing what quote to use:


Note this is from an article that is 8 years old, too. It's not like these polls are still going out door to door in BFE Iowa...

The article is about state polls lagging national polls. And the RCP averages out polls, you can see for yourself. It's really not that difficult. Heck, the Fox News poll just came out yesterday, a week after the DNC ended. So of course there is a lag in the RCP averages.

[pingbling23]

Originally Posted by pgisback

Demographics. There's one group of people that Donald Trump is absolutely destroying Hillary Clinton with by almost 40 pts, and I would imagine a sports card collecting site would consist of primarily that demographic.

interesting, can you go into more detail.

[ssbledsoe]

Originally Posted by pgisback

The article is about state polls lagging national polls. And the RCP averages out polls, you can see for yourself. It's really not that difficult. Heck, the Fox News poll just came out yesterday, a week after the DNC ended. So of course there is a lag in the RCP averages.

Well, I'm at a loss at trying to figure out whatever it is you're trying to mottle together to your point here. I feel like I've ask a question for left or right and gotten this response: