Patrick Mahomes Prices

[tjforce]

Originally Posted by Fenway55

They are going to restructure Mahomes' cap number this year down by about $35 million but IIRC (and also depending on which website you believe) they're still over the cap even after losing Thuney.

So even with the inevitable Mahomes restructure, it is not like they have tons of space to play with.

Not tons, but here's my educated guess: Currently somewhere between $3MM over cap and $0.4MM under the cap, depending on what source you read:

+$25MM from Mahomes restructure (could be a bit more if they'd like, but this would put him at a $4.5MM higher cap number than last year.)
+$13MM from extension of Trey Smith (otherwise I think they trade him, freeing up $23MM but leaving them without a right guard).
+$1.6MM from cutting Skyy Moore

They could also shake more money loose by changing the structure on Chris Jones, Jawaan Taylor, and Harrison Butker's contracts, or pushing Travis Kelce's cap into a void year. They currently have one of the lowest post 2025 dead cap totals in the league.

That puts them at ~$37MM-$40MM under the cap, assuming they sign Smith to a deal, with the ability to really go anywhere from $5-$20MM higher if they choose to. It becomes a game of pay now or pay later, which I think will be partially dictated by who is available: Meaning if some team was willing to offload a left tackle that they thought could complete the offense, they could make paying him work. But a lot of moving pieces.

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by sethc1020

The Seahawks released Tyler Lockett. Thats a guy I wouldn't mind seeing them sign if possible. Not really still his prime but as sure handed as they come and could really open up the outside.

Sign him for 1 year -4 mil?

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by jacksonjj

It's generally just wishful thinking that the dynasty is over. They just went 15-1 and played another SB. Any bettor would put money that next year's team on paper will be better than this year's team, which is saying something.

No team has ever had a chance at 3 peating, but they barely crack the top 5 dynasties?? I get they got beat bad, but recency bias is crazy.

Mahomes revenge tour coming...

Funny, Chiefs were +550 before the start of last season and +700 before the start of this season. That means vegas think they're worse than last season, but I'm sure you're smarter than them. Might also want to put over 15.5 wins for that juiced odds

[pejc300]

You can't pay everyone; just the way it is. The Chiefs have made it pretty clear they are not going to give out monstrous contracts unless they absolutely have to (see Mahomes, Chris Jones). They were okay letting Sneed walk last year, and that turned out fine. Thuney is a huge loss, but they'll figure it out. The left tackles is what they really cannot afford to not have figured out. The Chiefs know they are going to have to pay McDuffie soon as well. It is what it is.

Every year that 15 is back there I like our chances.

[jacksonjj]

Originally Posted by Delta5

Funny, Chiefs were +550 before the start of last season and +700 before the start of this season. That means vegas think they're worse than last season, but I'm sure you're smarter than them. Might also want to put over 15.5 wins for that juiced odds

Lol their #1 WR was lost for the year, #2 WR lost for the year, #1 RB hurt half the year so they're running lead back was Kareem whoooo?...

Yeah, any sane person would say next year's team will be better on paper. That doesn't always translate to W-L record. It's simply a statement on the talent level of players playing.

[dantheman514]

According to the Athletic, Kansas City is preparing to make a run at signing Baltimore Ravens left tackle Ronnie Stanley when free agency opens. The Chiefs cleared $16 million in cap space earlier Wednesday when they agreed to trade Thuney to the Chicago Bears for a fourth-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by jacksonjj

Lol their #1 WR was lost for the year, #2 WR lost for the year, #1 RB hurt half the year so they're running lead back was Kareem whoooo?...

Yeah, any sane person would say next year's team will be better on paper. That doesn't always translate to W-L record. It's simply a statement on the talent level of players playing.

Weird, they got blown out when they are healthiest on SB. Only missing Rice

[slyguy]

A lot of talk about offense and OL...
But what do you guys think of Khalil Mack coming to KC in FA?
He's HOF lock, lots of individual success, still pretty dominant and disruptive sacks/fumbles.
I think he'd be a fantastic situational player for a couple more years.

I see him trying to ring chase at this point with a SB favorite like KC, Buff, SF, Phi, Bal, etc... versus just going to another crap team for highest bid (he made a lot already).

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by slyguy

A lot of talk about offense and OL...
But what do you guys think of Khalil Mack coming to KC in FA?
He's HOF lock, lots of individual success, still pretty dominant and disruptive sacks/fumbles.
I think he'd be a fantastic situational player for a couple more years.

I see him trying to ring chase at this point with a SB favorite like KC, Buff, SF, Phi, Bal, etc... versus just going to another crap team for highest bid (he made a lot already).

And pay him with what?

[jjrpilot]

^

Anyways back to Mahomes collectors...


What cards are you currently chasing?

[jacksonjj]

Originally Posted by jjrpilot

^

Anyways back to Mahomes collectors...


What cards are you currently chasing?

any on card rookie auto i can get my hands on. a tale as old as time.

[Chris P]

Originally Posted by jjrpilot

^

Anyways back to Mahomes collectors...


What cards are you currently chasing?

I'm still looking for maybe a numbered Prizm rookie or a Select XRC. I'd have to consolidate some of my Mahomes to get one which is hard bc I really like everything I have lol

[KardsC1]

Fanatics premier lacking mahomes..only 3 cards..was hoping to see a gold vinyl or gold Prizm

[49erRCCollector]

Every so often I think about picking up some Mahomes but I feel like there is a real danger that his his prices already have his future success (or not) built in. That's not a reflection on the player, who is great, but on the market.

[jacksonjj]

Originally Posted by 49erRCCollector

Every so often I think about picking up some Mahomes but I feel like there is a real danger that his his prices already have his future success (or not) built in. That's not a reflection on the player, who is great, but on the market.

Sure is. Same with every active player.

[jacksonjj]

Where is the DIP I've been hearing will come!!??

Call me crazy but auto cards sold since the SB haven't dipped a bit. Way higher prices than they were even at the start of the season and last summer is what I'm seeing. Crazy.

[Stringmusic]

Originally Posted by jacksonjj

Where is the DIP I've been hearing will come!!??

Call me crazy but auto cards sold since the SB haven't dipped a bit. Way higher prices than they were even at the start of the season and last summer is what I'm seeing. Crazy.

I’m trying to sell my Immaculate RPA and I’m not even getting any offers….

[jacksonjj]

Originally Posted by Stringmusic

I’m trying to sell my Immaculate RPA and I’m not even getting any offers….

graded? I'm looking at contenders, optic, encased, nt inserts, etc.

[CorndogWasp]

Graded low end and optic holos are dipping a little, having said that, UNGRADED low end cards that are in AWFUL condition still sell for $100-200. No other player's basic Donruss in mangled condition sells for $150+ all day.

[49erRCCollector]

Originally Posted by jacksonjj

Sure is. Same with every active player.

For sure - but I think we can say the initial buy-in as of March 2025 on Mahomes is a bit more than the others.

[Stringmusic]

Originally Posted by jacksonjj

graded? I'm looking at contenders, optic, encased, nt inserts, etc.

Yes, BGS 8. I have it listed here and eBay.

Granted, I did list it at a crazy price between the AFCCG and the SB but I’ve got the card priced pretty close to a recent SGC 8 and a PSA authentic and I’m not getting any kind of offers, not even low ones lol.

[slyguy]

Originally Posted by 49erRCCollector

Every so often I think about picking up some Mahomes but I feel like there is a real danger that his his prices already have his future success (or not) built in. That's not a reflection on the player, who is great, but on the market.

This is possible, but you have to realize the Josh Allen, Lamar, Burrow etc cards will be worth almost nothing in 10 or 20 years.

It'll be like Brady cards vs Brees, Ryan, Rivers... it's just a night and day difference.

Mahomes may not have a ton of room to move up, but they should gradually increase unless he sustains major injury. They will begin to increase again if they get some OL an offensive stats going again... or more SBs. Those things are all pretty likely imo.

Regardless, there are 100 worse things to buy in terms of football cards.

[49erRCCollector]

Originally Posted by slyguy

This is possible, but you have to realize the Josh Allen, Lamar, Burrow etc cards will be worth almost nothing in 10 or 20 years.

It'll be like Brady cards vs Brees, Ryan, Rivers... it's just a night and day difference.

Mahomes may not have a ton of room to move up, but they should gradually increase unless he sustains major injury. They will begin to increase again if they get some OL an offensive stats going again... or more SBs. Those things are all pretty likely imo.

Regardless, there are 100 worse things to buy in terms of football cards.

Sure. I've been collecting since the 80s, I get it - that line of thought was sort of built in to my post.

But gradual increases versus buys with more dramatic upside (and less risk) seem better, to me.

And again, this is not a comment on players so much as what I see as an overall manipulated market that potentially has room to go down.

[slyguy]

Originally Posted by 49erRCCollector

Sure. I've been collecting since the 80s, I get it - that line of thought was sort of built in to my post.

But gradual increases versus buys with more dramatic upside (and less risk) seem better, to me.

And again, this is not a comment on players so much as what I see as an overall manipulated market that potentially has room to go down.

For sure.

Personally, I think the 2024 quarterbacks will really help Mahomes (and 2017 sealed wax) values. Not right away, but after awhile. The 2024 stuff sells really well - for rip or for holding onto - and QB guys who've done little or nothing have their RCs high valued.

They'll flop (most of them), Mahomes will keep chugging along, and people will start to see (like the 2021 QB mania at end of Brady's run). The only wild card would be if Caleb or Nix or Maye or one of them actually did better than Mahomes, but I think that's obviously well under 1% chance. Even if a few of them from 2024 hit big, they still have HUGE supply on those RCs; Mahomes' RC year was not.

But yeah, buying Mahomes is never easy. Never too exciting.
I got many offers laughed at in this year's playoff run. (baked in price of 4th SB and 3-peat?)
I try to buy a few Mahomes in offseason, tho (wouldn't work well if three-peat). The prices are very steady... very rare to find deals on auction, offer, anywhere.

[Delta5]

Originally Posted by slyguy

This is possible, but you have to realize the Josh Allen, Lamar, Burrow etc cards will be worth almost nothing in 10 or 20 years.

It'll be like Brady cards vs Brees, Ryan, Rivers... it's just a night and day difference.

Mahomes may not have a ton of room to move up, but they should gradually increase unless he sustains major injury. They will begin to increase again if they get some OL an offensive stats going again... or more SBs. Those things are all pretty likely imo.

Regardless, there are 100 worse things to buy in terms of football cards.

if you really think Mahomes prices wont go down if he doesnt win another one for the rest of his career then you'll be in a world of hurts