Your 2025 AL MVP will be....? - Page 16

Bosoxfan5990 · 09-26-2025, 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atk825

Judge has really sputtered down the stretch. He only has a .540 OBP in September.

This flew over a bunch of heads...

atk825 · 09-26-2025, 12:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bosoxfan5990

This flew over a bunch of heads...

Like Bonds had a year where he had a .609 OBP. It's just insane to see anything over a month long stretch over .500. That's more likely than not to get on base.

Bosoxfan5990 · 09-26-2025, 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atk825

Like Bonds had a year where he had a .609 OBP. It's just insane to see anything over a month long stretch over .500. That's more likely than not to get on base.

I think people interpreted it as OPS, not OBP.

OBP over .500 for a month is incredible.

fabiani12333 · 09-26-2025, 12:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoshMN

Number of games played seems very important!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mister2Bits

156 (Cal) vs 149 (Judge)

Not a big enough difference to be that important

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoshMN

Could be a tiebreaker though... if we give Judge offense and Raleigh defense under #1 and consider them equal overall... you gotta give the award to Raleigh based on games and #2 then, right?

I think what was meant by considering the amount of games played was primarily about whether or not a player has played enough to be considered for MVP -- did they at least qualify for the batting title, for example. Otherwise, a pitcher would never be considered for MVP.

In the case of Raleigh playing 7 more games than Judge, what should really matter is whether or not that difference impacted their respective team's chances of winning games and making the playoffs. Both team's have nearly the same record -- 90-69 for the Mariners, and 91-68 for the Yankees.

The Mariners clinched a playoff birth on game 157 and their division on game 158. The Yankees also clinched a playoff spot on game 157 and are still in position to possibly win their division -- a division that is tougher, mind you.

fabiani12333 · 09-26-2025, 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoshMN

1 Cal Raleigh Mariners C -190
2 Aaron Judge Yankees RF +155

Who would have believed that back in August? Just go back through the comments here on BO... amazing this is where we are.

3 games left. The tension from Yankees fans is palpable.

That was probably because Raleigh had a .767 OPS in July and .757 OPS in August.

BoSoxFan1999 · 09-26-2025, 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

That was probably because Raleigh had a .767 OPS in July and .757 OPS in August.

Judge OPS by month:
Mar: 2.461 (3 games lol)
Apr: 1.159
May: 1.251
Jun: .967
Jul: 1.089
Aug: .923
Sep: 1.283

It's insane that even during his worst month he was basically almost on par with the 2nd-best hitter in the league's (Raleigh) overall OPS.

Judge's OPS has been under 1.100 only 3 days this season (after the season opener, then 2 days in August). It's actually sick how consistent a hitter he's been.

Makes me wonder what Judge would actually needed to have hit before Raleigh backers went "OK, yeah, I guess he deserves MVP"? Like a .370/.500/.750 slashline? Or how about .395/.550/.800? I'm wondering if there is any batting line Judge could have put up to win over the Dumper fans. Assuming Judge's HR and RBI #'s were the same, that is.

fabiani12333 · 09-26-2025, 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JRX

Simple statistical analysis of 210 players with at least 400pa, avg wRC+ is 108, Cal is 2.4stdev away from mean, Judge is 4.25. Almost a full 2 stdev away from Cal. Also if you expand to 400pa, Kurtz is second in the AL. That dude can rake.

To be fair to Cal, his hitting is much better when compared to other catchers:

MLB average wRC+ in 2025:

Catcher: 94 wRC+ vs Raleigh's 162 wRC+ = 72% greater

Right field: 102 wRC+ vs Judge's 203 wRC+ = 99% greater

Judge's 36 IBB are not factored into wRC+, so he's actually been better.

Badgers0821 · 09-26-2025, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BoSoxFan1999

Judge OPS by month:
Mar: 2.461 (3 games lol)
Apr: 1.159
May: 1.251
Jun: .967
Jul: 1.089
Aug: .923
Sep: 1.283

It's insane that even during his worst month he was basically almost on par with the 2nd-best hitter in the league's (Raleigh) overall OPS.

Judge's OPS has been under 1.110 only 3 days this season (after the season opener, then 2 days in August). It's actually sick how consistent a hitter he's been.

Makes me wonder what Judge would actually needed to have hit before Raleigh backers went "OK, yeah, I guess he deserves MVP"? Like a .370/.500/.750 slashline? Or how about .395/.550/.800? I'm wondering if there is any batting line Judge could have put up to win over the Dumper fans. Assuming Judge's HR and RBI #'s were the same, that is.

The only way Mariners fans would have conceded the MVP to Judge is if he had more home runs. If Judge had 59 right now, they would still be pumping Cal.

OhioLawyerF5 · 09-26-2025, 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BoSoxFan1999

Judge OPS by month:
Mar: 2.461 (3 games lol)
Apr: 1.159
May: 1.251
Jun: .967
Jul: 1.089
Aug: .923
Sep: 1.283

It's insane that even during his worst month he was basically almost on par with the 2nd-best hitter in the league's (Raleigh) overall OPS.

Judge's OPS has been under 1.110 only 3 days this season (after the season opener, then 2 days in August). It's actually sick how consistent a hitter he's been.

Makes me wonder what Judge would actually needed to have hit before Raleigh backers went "OK, yeah, I guess he deserves MVP"? Like a .370/.500/.750 slashline? Or how about .395/.550/.800? I'm wondering if there is any batting line Judge could have put up to win over the Dumper fans. Assuming Judge's HR and RBI #'s were the same, that is.

This shows a lack of understanding of the entire debate. To ask the question what Judge's slash line would need to be to win over those who support Cal's MVP case, is to not understand that it's not just about a slash line. Or even about hitting in general. The MVP is rarely about the best overall hitting statistics. That lack of understanding shows in the statement that Cal is the second best hitter in the league. He's not. No one is saying that. He is doing things as a hitter that have never been done by a catcher. He might even have the best single season ever for homeruns by an AL player. But that's one aspect of hitting. But even though he isn't the second best hitter in the AL, he is still a viable candidate for MVP. Because MVP isn't "best hitter" award.

atk825 · 09-26-2025, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

To be fair to Cal, his hitting is much better when compared to other catchers:

MLB average wRC+ in 2025:

Catcher: 94 wRC+ vs Raleigh's 162 wRC+ = 72% greater

Right field: 102 wRC+ vs Judge's 203 wRC+ = 99% greater

Judge's 36 IBB are not factored into wRC+, so he's actually been better.

That's...not how weighted stats work. Judge is 101% better than your average RF...Raleigh is 68% better than your average catcher.

Badgers0821 · 09-26-2025, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by OhioLawyerF5

This shows a lack of understanding of the entire debate. To ask the question what Judge's slash line would need to be to win over those who support Cal's MVP case, is to not understand that it's not just about a slash line. Or even about hitting in general. The MVP is rarely about the best overall hitting statistics. That lack of understanding shows in the statement that Cal is the second best hitter in the league. He's not. No one is saying that. He is doing things as a hitter that have never been done by a catcher. He might even have the best single season ever for homeruns by an AL player. But that's one aspect of hitting. But even though he isn't the second best hitter in the AL, he is still a viable candidate for MVP. Because MVP isn't "best hitter" award.

Didn’t Cal play a good amount of games as DH?

The Yanks also went 4-6 without Judge in the lineup, with 3 of those wins against TB. His value is always apparent.

TBTC Baseball · 09-26-2025, 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Badgers0821

Didn’t Cal play a good amount of games as DH?

The Yanks also went 4-6 without Judge in the lineup, with 3 of those wins against TB. His value is always apparent.

There is no penalty for being a DH anymore.

majestik101 · 09-26-2025, 01:50 PM

So...

When all the dust has settled...

Which player will we find out used Performance Enhancing Drugs during/throughout their career?

Raleigh or Judge?

JoshMN · 09-26-2025, 01:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fabiani12333

I think what was meant by considering the amount of games played was primarily about whether or not a player has played enough to be considered for MVP -- did they at least qualify for the batting title, for example. Otherwise, a pitcher would never be considered for MVP.

In the case of Raleigh playing 7 more games than Judge, what should really matter is whether or not that difference impacted their respective team's chances of winning games and making the playoffs. Both team's have nearly the same record -- 90-69 for the Mariners, and 91-68 for the Yankees.

The Mariners clinched a playoff birth on game 157 and their division on game 158. The Yankees also clinched a playoff spot on game 157 and are still in position to possibly win their division -- a division that is tougher, mind you.

I disagree. The rules were written back in 1931, after all, when they didn't have WAR and other fancy schmancy stats to directly compare overall value between players regardless of games played. More games played meant more valuable, especially for a catcher. The games played criteria was a big party of the story with the old timey voters who based their vote mostly on narrative with perhaps only a smattering of stats.

Some of the new-timey voters are actually old-timey voters.

JRX · 09-26-2025, 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by majestik101

So...

When all the dust has settled...

Which player will we find out used Performance Enhancing Drugs during/throughout their career?

Raleigh or Judge?

Well Judge was always a bit of an ogre and he did have a 1k ops his rookie year. You could extrapolate that he may have better seasons, though nobody would have predicted to this degree.

Cal coming into this year was a career .218/.296/.444 hitter over 1760pa and 111 OPS+. Nobody would have thought this season was realistic. Maybe 40 HR has he did hit 30 and 34, but never 50 let alone 60+.

JoshMN · 09-26-2025, 02:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by majestik101

So...

When all the dust has settled...

Which player will we find out used Performance Enhancing Drugs during/throughout their career?

Raleigh or Judge?

Judge. How the heck did he get that big and still have such amazing baseball skills? Maybe HGH back in the day or something like that?

Raleigh looks more like the guys selling baseball cards than an actual baseball player... you know, like the chubby guys on this forum. No way that guy is doping, unless we add beer to the banned substance list.

Badgers0821 · 09-26-2025, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TBTC Baseball

There is no penalty for being a DH anymore.

But if the argument is that he did this all while playing catcher, the fact that he didn’t play all those games as a catcher would matter.

Nostalgia · 09-26-2025, 02:06 PM

Why didnt Mike Piazza win MVP? Guy should have won a few. His teams were very good and his stats were HOF worthy? And he played the most grueling position. .362 with 40 home runs and 124 RBI’s with a 8.6 war, and he couldn’t win?!? I guess he wasn’t a gold glove catcher. They should have taken the taxing of his body by playing catcher into account.

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JRX · 09-26-2025, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nostalgia

Why didnt Mike Piazza win MVP? Guy should have won a few. His teams were very good and his stats were HOF worthy? And he played the most grueling position. .362 with 40 home runs and 124 RBI’s with a 8.6 war, and he couldn’t win?!? I guess he wasn’t a gold glove catcher. They should have taken the taxing of his body by playing catcher into account.

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Cause post strike numbers were insane.

JRX · 09-26-2025, 02:21 PM

That was also before Col had the humidor. The year you point out, Larry Walker had a .720 slg.

Nostalgia · 09-26-2025, 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JRX

Cause post strike numbers were insane.

I know, but he was a catcher. Probably should have received more 1st place votes based on that alone. He received 3 and Walker received 22!

Dodgers finished 5 games ahead of the Rockies.

Big35Hurt · 09-26-2025, 02:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nostalgia

Why didnt Mike Piazza win MVP? Guy should have won a few. His teams were very good and his stats were HOF worthy? And he played the most grueling position. .362 with 40 home runs and 124 RBI’s with a 8.6 war, and he couldn’t win?!? I guess he wasn’t a gold glove catcher. They should have taken the taxing of his body by playing catcher into account.

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Probably because others, including the winner each time he was runner-up, had more HRs?

SaveMeTheGum · 09-26-2025, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nostalgia

Why didnt Mike Piazza win MVP? Guy should have won a few. His teams were very good and his stats were HOF worthy? And he played the most grueling position. .362 with 40 home runs and 124 RBI’s with a 8.6 war, and he couldn’t win?!? I guess he wasn’t a gold glove catcher. They should have taken the taxing of his body by playing catcher into account.

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Walker even got a gold glove that year...

atk825 · 09-26-2025, 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SaveMeTheGum

Walker even got a gold glove that year...

152 games at catcher with no DH is pretty incredible.

Nostalgia · 09-26-2025, 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by atk825

152 games at catcher with no DH is pretty incredible.

YUP...AND Dodgers Stadium vs Coors!

View Poll Results: Who will win the 2025 AL MVP?
Aaron Judge	165	59.78%
Cal Raleigh	111	40.22%
Voters: 276. You may not vote on this poll

09-26-2025, 01:50 PM	#388
majestik101 Member Join Date: Mar 2014 Location: Socially Distanced Posts: 44,304 majestik101	So... When all the dust has settled... Which player will we find out used Performance Enhancing Drugs during/throughout their career? Raleigh or Judge? __________________ NYC 1653-2025 "Watson alone sells for over $20" https://www.blowoutforums.com/showthread.php?t=1182760

09-26-2025, 02:06 PM	#393
Nostalgia Member Join Date: Sep 2020 Location: New York Posts: 2,003	Why didnt Mike Piazza win MVP? Guy should have won a few. His teams were very good and his stats were HOF worthy? And he played the most grueling position. .362 with 40 home runs and 124 RBI’s with a 8.6 war, and he couldn’t win?!? I guess he wasn’t a gold glove catcher. They should have taken the taxing of his body by playing catcher into account. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

09-26-2025, 02:21 PM	#395
JRX Member Join Date: May 2020 Location: Charlotte, NC Posts: 15,891	That was also before Col had the humidor. The year you point out, Larry Walker had a .720 slg.