Official 2025-26 NBA Offseason Thread

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Chryghst

Well I thought the Celtics and Thunder would both smoke the Pacers because they had an excess of wing defenders…honestly I thought the conversation around Hali would be fairly grim coming out of the finals because OKC would entirely lock him up (like how Miami did Trae Young in ‘22 playoffs).

Okoro unfortunately is missing the 3 in 3+D. Having him on the floor enables an extra man to collapse to the paint as well as a hiding spot for their worst defender. It buys time in defensive rotations and allows his primary defender to not switch (and hard hedge) in PnR. And like you said, with how much switching there is now, you need multiple perimeter defenders not just 1. Agree with your Porzingis plan and your fears too. Okongwu is such an enigma. Has had awesome moments against Giannis and Embiid, but I think KAT would eat him for breakfast. He’s just a little undersized for that position, and I think Cavs double bigs beat Hawks if it’s only JJ/Okongwu with Porzingis hurt.

Yup. Okoro's a worker. I can never doubt his effort, especially considering he's much closer to 6'8 than he is a true 7 footer. But like you said, he really hurts them offensively and presents the same challenges Cap did in keeping defenses honest. That was my one and only criticism about them skipping out on Sarr last year. Yes, he would have gotten eaten alive by physical brutes down low, but at least he can switch off 1-4 and plays 3 levels (assuming he had a real pg like Trae that knows how to operate the PnR). Now they've kinda painted themselves into a corner where it's just more of the same.

On the zoomed out frame, it feels like Atlanta's taken the GS approach towards the 5 over the last decade. Not too stellar.

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Yup. Okoro's a worker. I can never doubt his effort, especially considering he's much closer to 6'8 than he is a true 7 footer. But like you said, he really hurts them offensively and presents the same challenges Cap did in keeping defenses honest. That was my one and only criticism about them skipping out on Sarr last year. Yes, he would have gotten eaten alive by physical brutes down low, but at least he can switch off 1-4 and plays 3 levels (assuming he had a real pg like Trae that knows how to operate the PnR). Now they've kinda painted themselves into a corner where it's just more of the same.

On the zoomed out frame, it feels like Atlanta's taken the GS approach towards the 5 over the last decade. Not too stellar.

Tbh with you Ninja, I’ve perhaps watched 2 total games of Sarr and probably spent most of that time watching a player off-ball, not him. Promise to watch him next season and report back since I know you’re high on him. I saw Hawks were linked to his little brother or something in the upcoming draft. Don’t know if he plays the same position.

Yeah Okongwu is definitely a Draymond-lite play. Schlenk was GS prior to ATL and his claim to fame was identifying Draymond. Trae was meant to be Curry; Huerter meant to be Klay. Just think those 3 guys talent level is so high you can’t recreate a tribute act in their likeness.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Chryghst

Yeah Okongwu is definitely a Draymond-lite play. Schlenk was GS prior to ATL and his claim to fame was identifying Draymond. Trae was meant to be Curry; Huerter meant to be Klay. Just think those 3 guys talent level is so high you can’t recreate a tribute act in their likeness.

Now this all makes sense.


Not necessarily 'high' on Sarr persay, but felt he was a better fit for Atlanta's current and future plans than Risacher at the time.

His defense has probably been his sole shining spot since his offensive efficiency is virtually non existent. However, I think I can safely attribute a lot of that to the system and hodge podge roster construction that have given the Wiz their rep as the league's punching bag. When an organization has zero leadership or iq, it's not going to reflect well on the floor.

I understand he made a boneheaded move by basically telling ATL not to draft him, so we can chalk a majority of it up to sadomasochism.

That didn't stop Poppa Ainge this draft tho....

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Now this all makes sense.


Not necessarily 'high' on Sarr persay, but felt he was a better fit for Atlanta's current and future plans than Risacher at the time.

His defense has probably been his sole shining spot since his offensive efficiency is virtually non existent. However, I think I can safely attribute a lot of that to the system and hodge podge roster construction that have given the Wiz their rep as the league's punching bag. When an organization has zero leadership or iq, it's not going to reflect well on the floor.

I understand he made a boneheaded move by basically telling ATL not to draft him, so we can chalk a majority of it up to sadomasochism.

That didn't stop Poppa Ainge this draft tho....

I believe Schlenk is now an executive for the Wizards, ironically. I think they poached some OKC FO guys as well. Honestly they have some interesting pieces. Kyshawn George and Bilal both had some decent moments in the game I watched. Curious to watch Tre Johnson in summer league. Risacher was very up and down this year. I think Ainge made a mistake there tbh, but we shall see.

David Thorpe said an NBA GM who’d won titles as both player and GM said Cedric Coward reminded him of Kobe Bryant or something ridiculous-sounding. There aren’t too many NBA GMs who meet those criteria, but Danny is one of them. With his wing obsession I half expected him to trade down (ie accumulate draft assets) and take Coward. With all the hype just want to see that guy play.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Chryghst

David Thorpe said an NBA GM who’d won titles as both player and GM said Cedric Coward reminded him of Kobe Bryant or something ridiculous-sounding.

Now I think as a potential Memphis fan, this may be the healthy approach towards upcoming expectations. Even 1/100th scale Mamba will still be seen as a win.

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by ninjacookies

Now I think as a potential Memphis fan, this may be the healthy approach towards upcoming expectations. Even 1/100th scale Mamba will still be seen as a win.

Lol agreed. Are you still a team-specific fan? I didn’t know those still existed. Feels like roster-turnover is so high now that there’s no point. Combined with league pass access, I carry my fandom year to year to the GMs who’ve put together the best roster construction for that particular season. The great irony of LP is you have the worst access to the team that should command your geographical loyalty.

[ninjacookies]

Originally Posted by Chryghst

Lol agreed. Are you still a team-specific fan? I didn’t know those still existed. Feels like roster-turnover is so high now that there’s no point. Combined with league pass access, I carry my fandom year to year to the GMs who’ve put together the best roster construction for that particular season. The great irony of LP is you have the worst access to the team that should command your geographical loyalty.

League-fan first --> Pels/Hawnks fan second.


Agreed, the blistering roster-turnover rates makes being a team fan extremely difficult. I'd say majority these days are more player-turned-team stans. Where they go, they'll follow.

LP is a godsend. I'll never understand how I survived without it. Thankfully my local team has been a dumpster fire for as long as I can remember, so the blacklout schedule bothers me not a single iota.

It's almost comical how cheaply it's priced compared to the NFL pass considering the sheer amount of games. Highway robbery.

[Chryghst]

This is why I don’t like NBA reporting. “Oklahoma City Thunder star and 2025 NBA champion Chet Holmgren has agreed to a fully guaranteed five-year maximum rookie contract extension that could reach $250 million, Bill Duffy of WME Basketball told ESPN on Wednesday morning.” (ESPN)

2 days ago: “Orlando Magic star Paolo Banchero agreed to a five-year, $239 million maximum rookie contract extension that could reach $287 million, Mike Miller of LIFT Sports Management told ESPN on Monday.” (ESPN)

Does that mean Chet’s deal includes more limited language for all-nba/DPOY? That his max is 250million to Paolo’s 287million? Or is that a reflection of the projected cap adjustment from +10% to +7%?

Please give us % of the salary cap and not the $$ amount which is just meaningless to everyone besides the player/agent.

Also, that’s a lot of money for Chet’s production thus far. Equivalent to ‘this card is worth $100 today but I’m selling it for $250 because that’s what it’ll be worth in 3 weeks’. I would have waited until next offseason on this; hopefully he proves me wrong.

Edit: for people who don’t know, max players don’t agree to $$ amounts—they agree to % of the cap. Shai doesn’t sign for 285/4–he signs for 35% of the cap (which is currently projected to be 285/4). If the cap increases more, shai makes 35% of a larger number; if it decreases, Shai makes 35% of a smaller number. It’s not like his % increases to 40% of the cap if the cap decreases—his $ amount scales down with it.

[rhigh2390]

Originally Posted by Chryghst

This is why I don’t like NBA reporting. “Oklahoma City Thunder star and 2025 NBA champion Chet Holmgren has agreed to a fully guaranteed five-year maximum rookie contract extension that could reach $250 million, Bill Duffy of WME Basketball told ESPN on Wednesday morning.” (ESPN)

2 days ago: “Orlando Magic star Paolo Banchero agreed to a five-year, $239 million maximum rookie contract extension that could reach $287 million, Mike Miller of LIFT Sports Management told ESPN on Monday.” (ESPN)

Does that mean Chet’s deal includes more limited language for all-nba/DPOY? That his max is 250million to Paolo’s 287million? Or is that a reflection of the projected cap adjustment from +10% to +7%?

Please give us % of the salary cap and not the $$ amount which is just meaningless to everyone besides the player/agent.

Also, that’s a lot of money for Chet’s production thus far. Equivalent to ‘this card is worth $100 today but I’m selling it for $250 because that’s what it’ll be worth in 3 weeks’. I would have waited until next offseason on this; hopefully he proves me wrong.

Edit: for people who don’t know, max players don’t agree to $$ amounts—they agree to % of the cap. Shai doesn’t sign for 285/4–he signs for 35% of the cap (which is currently projected to be 285/4). If the cap increases more, shai makes 35% of a larger number; if it decreases, Shai makes 35% of a smaller number. It’s not like his % increases to 40% of the cap if the cap decreases—his $ amount scales down with it.

I just don't see it with Chet. I would not have maxed him out. If that meant I lose him, so be it.

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by rhigh2390

I just don't see it with Chet. I would not have maxed him out. If that meant I lose him, so be it.

I agree with you. But I would have said ‘look Chet, you’ve played 114 out of 246 possible games in 3 seasons. That’s 46%. We don’t have the sample size yet to justify to ownership the contract we want to give you. Let’s get through next season and then hopefully we will’.

Jdub has played 215/246 for 87%. They’ve given Chet the same contract with about half of the data they have for Jdub. Honestly I don’t understand this decision from Presti even if you are a Chet believer.

[msink28]

There isn't a team in the NBA that wouldn't max out Chet Holmgren. The only question long-term is injury risk, but that's the price you pay to play.

[asujbl]

Originally Posted by msink28

There isn't a team in the NBA that wouldn't max out Chet Holmgren. The only question long-term is injury risk, but that's the price you pay to play.

Correct

100% of teams do the exact same thing

[JustinVerlander07]

Rough take on Chet. Even the dumbest of teams in the league are giving him the rookie max.

[JustinVerlander07]

Maybe I'm dumb and on an Island, but I'm confused why a bad team so badly wants to buyout/stretch & waive Beal. Yea he's not even remotely a $50+ million player, but he's not a bum, for as dysfunctional as that Suns team was when he played he was good!

50% from the field, 39% from 3. What's wrong with that?

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by msink28

There isn't a team in the NBA that wouldn't max out Chet Holmgren. The only question long-term is injury risk, but that's the price you pay to play.

Context matters. Committing 90% of the salary cap to 3 players (35% Shai/30% Jdub/25% Chet) is not the same as committing 25% to your best player. Nuggets traded MPJ because their 3 max structure failed; Suns traded KD because their 3 max structure failed; Sixers have 3 max contracts (Embiid/PG/Maxey) and so now too does Orlando (Paolo/Franz/Bane)—but these are all 25% max for 75% total and Paolo hasn’t kicked in yet. Neither team are contenders.

OKC’s strength this season was depth. Unless Chet improves significantly in the next couple years, this decision makes the team a lot worse. They lose nothing by waiting until next summer to give out the same contract. If Chet gets hurt next year, it becomes a much more difficult contract to move like MPJ’s did.

[yiguiri2002]

Most teams that are in the position to give a player the rookie max are in no condition to contend. If you are a lottery or fringe playoff team, you have no option. OKC's situation is completely different.

Who else has gotten the rookie max lately? Mobley (better and less injury prone), Cade (same), Paolo (same) and Barnes (in a rebuilding team). I'm waiting to see what other details come out but maxing someone like Chet is not a no-brainer anymore.

[JustinVerlander07]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

Most teams that are in the position to give a player the rookie max are in no condition to contend. If you are a lottery or fringe playoff team, you have no option. OKC's situation is completely different.

Who else has gotten the rookie max lately? Mobley (better and less injury prone), Cade (same), Paolo (same) and Barnes (in a rebuilding team). I'm waiting to see what other details come out but maxing someone like Chet is not a no-brainer anymore.

It's a very movable contract if nothing else.

What do you do? Let him walk? Can't do that.

[msink28]

I understand OKC's cap situation. But Shai/JDub/Chet are orders of magnitude younger and better than the other teams big 3 you described, and OKC will be fine to just let Hartenstein and Caruso go when the time comes and stick with whatever young guys they develop in the interim.

By signing Chet now, they avoid triggering the higher max next year that could occur if Chet makes an All-NBA team. That outcome is entirely possible if he plays >65 games.

Originally Posted by Chryghst

Context matters. Committing 90% of the salary cap to 3 players (35% Shai/30% Jdub/25% Chet) is not the same as committing 25% to your best player. Nuggets traded MPJ because their 3 max structure failed; Suns traded KD because their 3 max structure failed; Sixers have 3 max contracts (Embiid/PG/Maxey) and so now too does Orlando (Paolo/Franz/Bane)—but these are all 25% max for 75% total and Paolo hasn’t kicked in yet. Neither team are contenders.

OKC’s strength this season was depth. Unless Chet improves significantly in the next couple years, this decision makes the team a lot worse. They lose nothing by waiting until next summer to give out the same contract. If Chet gets hurt next year, it becomes a much more difficult contract to move like MPJ’s did.

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by JustinVerlander07

Rough take on Chet. Even the dumbest of teams in the league are giving him the rookie max.

Yes, all of the dumbest teams would. And Presti has to worry about them…next summer. It’s just an extremely atypical Presti move to sacrifice flexibility when his modus operandi has always been to preserve it for as long as possible.

Chet just signed for 2x what Turner did (+1 year) after a fairly comparable finals performance.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by JustinVerlander07

It's a very movable contract if nothing else.

What do you do? Let him walk? Can't do that.

I don't think the options are maxing him out or letting him walk. I think it's movable based on how it's structured. If Chet has a slightly better season (60 games played, 17 and 8), how movable is that contract?

Originally Posted by msink28

I understand OKC's cap situation. But Shai/JDub/Chet are orders of magnitude younger and better than the other teams big 3 you described, and OKC will be fine to just let Hartenstein and Caruso go when the time comes and stick with whatever young guys they develop in the interim.

By signing Chet now, they avoid triggering the higher max next year that could occur if Chet makes an All-NBA team. That outcome is entirely possible if he plays >65 games.

What are the chances of Chet making an All-NBA team next season? Also, if Chet makes an All-NBA team...you have 3 All-NBA players, max them and figure out the rest. Taking a gamble now so you have a long shot at getting a discount doesn't make a lot of sense.

[asujbl]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I don't think the options are maxing him out or letting him walk. I think it's movable based on how it's structured. If Chet has a slightly better season (60 games played, 17 and 8), how movable is that contract?



What are the chances of Chet making an All-NBA team next season? Also, if Chet makes an All-NBA team...you have 3 All-NBA players, max them and figure out the rest. Taking a gamble now so you have a long shot at getting a discount doesn't make a lot of sense.

Very moveable

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by JustinVerlander07

It's a very movable contract if nothing else.

What do you do? Let him walk? Can't do that.

No. He is on the team next year regardless. This contract kicks in 2026-2027, not ‘25-‘26. They extended him a year earlier than they needed to.

He would be a restricted free agent next summer and they could give him this exact contract.

I agree that it is a movable contract now, but if he gets injured next season then it won’t be. In 2021 Nuggets signed MPJ to a max after his 3rd season (same as Chet now). In his 4th season he played 9 games and required back surgery. His contract became immovable and essentially ruined Denver’s ability to build around Jokic since then. They could have waited until after his 4th season to negotiate his next contract. If they do that, he signs for half the price and Nuggets probably win the last 2 titles.

[asujbl]

Originally Posted by Chryghst

No. He is on the team next year regardless. This contract kicks in 2026-2027, not ‘25-‘26. They extended him a year earlier than they needed to.

He would be a restricted free agent next summer and they could give him this exact contract.

I agree that it is a movable contract now, but if he gets injured next season then it won’t be. In 2021 Nuggets signed MPJ to a max after his 3rd season (same as Chet now). In his 4th season he played 9 games and required back surgery. His contract became immovable and essentially ruined Denver’s ability to build around Jokic since then. They could have waited until after his 4th season to negotiate his next contract. If they do that, he signs for half the price and Nuggets probably win the last 2 titles.

MPJ wishes he was as good as Chet

That’s the difference

[JustinVerlander07]

Originally Posted by Chryghst

No. He is on the team next year regardless. This contract kicks in 2026-2027, not ‘25-‘26. They extended him a year earlier than they needed to.

He would be a restricted free agent next summer and they could give him this exact contract.

I agree that it is a movable contract now, but if he gets injured next season then it won’t be. In 2021 Nuggets signed MPJ to a max after his 3rd season (same as Chet now). In his 4th season he played 9 games and required back surgery. His contract became immovable and essentially ruined Denver’s ability to build around Jokic since then. They could have waited until after his 4th season to negotiate his next contract. If they do that, he signs for half the price and Nuggets probably win the last 2 titles.

MPJ for all his warts averaged 48%/41% from 3 17 points per game and they won a championship in his year 5......This is revisionist history for sure based on what we saw from his the last 3 months of 24/25.

Worth the rookie max in year 5? Maybe, maybe not. He was definitely movable after they won the title.

[Chryghst]

Originally Posted by msink28

By signing Chet now, they avoid triggering the higher max next year that could occur if Chet makes an All-NBA team. That outcome is entirely possible if he plays >65 games.

You might have seen something on this that I haven’t, msink. I saw it scales from 239million to 250million, but Paolo’s scales to 287million. Does that mean they’ve negotiated less of a bump for if he makes all-nba/DPOY?

Still I agree with yiguiri below. They’ve guaranteed minimum 25% of cap with upside to ~26% to safeguard themselves from the potential of paying 30%? If Chet is an all-nba guy next year, then give him 30% next summer. No problem with that. I think 25% floor is a really high mark to give for fear of paying a deserved 30% if he gets it. It’s not like they’ve paid 20% to safeguard against 30%, which is roughly what JJJ got after 3 injury-riddled seasons.