Retail Hoarders and Extortion

[joe73]

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

I get a real BBases vibe from that guy...

Was he another heretic?

You sound like those crazy guys on the real estate boards back around 2006 who wanted anyone who mentioned a bubble to be burned at the stake.

[SaltyCracker]

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

I get a real BBases vibe from that guy...

100%. PBM for sure.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by joe73

That's the thing: There's nothing to enjoy about the bubble from a hobby standpoint. "The hobby" and "the industry" have never been more different.

This is very true.

Most people here can’t be part of the hobby without being part of the industry. What most of these people can’t see is that their being at least partly on the industry side is making the hobby more expensive...which forces more people to the industry side...

[SleepyWill]

My suggestion would be to look for local FB groups that post about restocks.

It's been the only way in the past I've been able to find Optic and Prizm Basketball. And the Walgreen baseball hangers, but good luck on your journey.

[MoreToppsPlease]

Originally Posted by Lonewolf

I haven't bought unopened packs/boxes in nearly half a year and don't even bother looking when I drop by Target anymore. I've picked up singles and that's it. The hobby has not been as fun for me since I refuse to pay 2-4X retail markup and enrich all these greedy/flipper fools. Topps is becoming no better with their nutzo box/case prices for not a whole lot of value/fun factor.

I've started spending more money on home improvement projects as a result, so I guess it's good that my house is a better place to be in light of the sports card market these days.

Agreed. Like you, paying extra to support these *scalpers* is plain foolish. Scalpers suck the enjoyment out of hobbies. Too many people are scalpers, I’d like them to go away.

Someone else came up with the term “scalper”, so kudos to him for coming up with it.

[mrb842]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

Agreed. Like you, paying extra to support these *scalpers* is plain foolish. Scalpers suck the enjoyment out of hobbies. Too many people are scalpers, I’d like them to go away.

Someone else came up with the term “scalper”, so kudos to him for coming up with it.

If there is a good thing people are going to eventually ruin it. Kids don't understand how amazing napster was.

[SaltyCracker]

Originally Posted by mrb842

If there is a good thing people are going to eventually ruin it. Kids don't understand how amazing napster was.

Facts!!

[PDCCollectibles]

Originally Posted by MoreToppsPlease

This is very true.

Most people here can’t be part of the hobby without being part of the industry. What most of these people can’t see is that their being at least partly on the industry side is making the hobby more expensive...which forces more people to the industry side...

....but the Hobby has changed so many times over the years...and it will change again. I love how much attention the sports card world is getting...

[80version]

Originally Posted by Wiseguy917

Always leave some for the kids

You mean the other flippers? Living in a large market essentially guarantees product is bought the minute it hits the shelf, and that is with random stocking schedules even. If you’re in an area like mine you might find retail worth buying once every few months, unless you’re hunting persistently or you know the Excel employee.

[auctionjmm]

Originally Posted by joe73

A crash is coming, and it's going to be epic.

Sports cards didn't suddenly get 300% more popular in the past 18 months. The Fed has been printing money like crazy and people have been stuck at home, either with nothing to spend money on or desperate for ways to make money from home. It's only a matter of time before the flippers and investors move on to the next thing.

Originally Posted by joe73

People were saying the same about real estate 15 years ago.

Prices will come down as soon as people can start going on vacation again. There's no way the current bull market is going to last another 4-5 years.

It's a bit more complicated because we actually have a bull market inside of a bull market right now. It created this tidal wave. I'll break it down into three phases. Where do you think we are heading?

Phase 1: Pre-2017 - Relatively healthy hobby. Wax prices affordable but with a few gems that would take off here or there. Prospecting was still happening so a lot of money would go towards certain players (and then leave) just as fast if a player busted or got hurt. There was money to be made but you had to work for it.

Phase 2: Late 2017-Early 2020 - Large spike in singles and wax prices. Many believed it was the perfect storm of generational talent all coming in at once. Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Ronald Acuna, Juan Soto, Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Zion, Ja Morant....TO NAME A FEW. Very good time to make money because wax was still relatively affordable (compared to where it is now) as singles started to rocket.

Phase 3: March 2020-now. Total insanity. Everything selling sky high and seemingly no limit to where prices can go. It is much harder to make money right now IF you didn't already stock up in previous years or build a strong connection with your supplier. There are limited opportunities to enter the market today but enormous amounts of money being made by those who were already on the inside.

So my question to you...when you say "crash", are you thinking a drop back to Phase 2? A drop back to Phase 1? A drop below Phase 1 (unhealthy)?

For someone like me, I'd be perfectly content going back to Phase 1 or 2 and still feeling really good about the hobby. I think the term "crash" is maybe the wrong word to use unless people are concerned about the hobby going in an unhealthy economic direction. Maybe "correction" is a better word.

In any case, it doesn't seem like something that should be feared. We were doing pretty good to begin with.

[jkampis]

I think correction is an excellent word. I don’t see the market “crashing” to the late 90s level in the junk wax era. It would seem likely it will be healthy for the foreseeable future, especially with many adults returning to the hobby this year after a long absence and collecting with their children.

[jayjones82]

If there's a correction, I'd see it going back to early-COVID levels. Too many people have entered/re-entered the hobby since March for it to drop back to pre-COVID prices, IMO, even if a lot of those began dropping out in the next year or so.

[discodanman45]

There will be no crash or even market correction for years. The insanity will continue. $1400 stimulus may be on the way. People are buying out all cards, toploaders, penny sleeves, etc... at retail stores to flip on eBay. Normal life won't be around for another year and people will continue to collect at home. $1 shipping with tracking is coming to eBay, which will increase buying. Eventually the market correction will happen, but insanity will be here for years.

[Chris P]

It's just funny because with retail in general the goalposts keep moving..after the basketball stuff I remember people saying "yeah it's basketball..football will stay on shelves forever" then all of a sudden you couldn't find Donruss blasters anywhere or at the very least they wouldn't last on the shelves long at all. Then it was "next year's basketball draft class will be the breaking point"..nope..the draft pick stuff like Prizm might be a tad easier to find but it still doesn't last and Hoops will absolutely be cleaned out. Outside of UD Hockey Stuff and Topps Update Baseball, there isn't one product that I've seen that has sat on shelves by the time I go back to my WM. Just this Friday, vendor stocked Hoops Prizm Elite Extra Edition Contenders Football, Topps Holiday Baseball and Leaf Draft Baseball I think? By Saturday it was all gone. Yesterday I went to my Target for the first time in about a month and I've never seen it so bare..not even Topps Update Baseball..just 4 Blasters of Finest Wrestling

[k13]

What would be the crash?

Luis Robert Topps rc going from $10 to $5?

[joe73]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

There will be no crash or even market correction for years. The insanity will continue. $1400 stimulus may be on the way. People are buying out all cards, toploaders, penny sleeves, etc... at retail stores to flip on eBay. Normal life won't be around for another year and people will continue to collect at home. $1 shipping with tracking is coming to eBay, which will increase buying. Eventually the market correction will happen, but insanity will be here for years.

You're arguing that none of the money that entered this market during the COVID-19 lockdowns will leave this year or next when people can start going on vacation again and when the rent has to be paid or they'll be evicted (unlike now). That's silly.

[joe73]

Originally Posted by auctionjmm

It's a bit more complicated because we actually have a bull market inside of a bull market right now. It created this tidal wave. I'll break it down into three phases. Where do you think we are heading?

Phase 1: Pre-2017 - Relatively healthy hobby. Wax prices affordable but with a few gems that would take off here or there. Prospecting was still happening so a lot of money would go towards certain players (and then leave) just as fast if a player busted or got hurt. There was money to be made but you had to work for it.

Phase 2: Late 2017-Early 2020 - Large spike in singles and wax prices. Many believed it was the perfect storm of generational talent all coming in at once. Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Aaron Judge, Cody Bellinger, Ronald Acuna, Juan Soto, Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Zion, Ja Morant....TO NAME A FEW. Very good time to make money because wax was still relatively affordable (compared to where it is now) as singles started to rocket.

Phase 3: March 2020-now. Total insanity. Everything selling sky high and seemingly no limit to where prices can go. It is much harder to make money right now IF you didn't already stock up in previous years or build a strong connection with your supplier. There are limited opportunities to enter the market today but enormous amounts of money being made by those who were already on the inside.

So my question to you...when you say "crash", are you thinking a drop back to Phase 2? A drop back to Phase 1? A drop below Phase 1 (unhealthy)?

At minimum, somewhere between 1 and 2 when the COVID-19 money leaves the market. Longer term, 1 or earlier. This isn't a sustainable "hobby" when kids can't meaningfully participate, when veteran collectors do little but complain about the status quo, and when you can't even get your hands on product without camping out at Target or paying scalpers a 30 percent markup online.

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by joe73

You're arguing that none of the money that entered this market during the COVID-19 lockdowns will leave this year or next when people can start going on vacation again and when the rent has to be paid or they'll be evicted (unlike now). That's silly.

Things are not opening up until next year. We can't even get enough vaccines right now for people over 75 years old. Things could actually take off when people go on vacations. Big card conventions could be designations for vacations and the hobby could continue to grow. The hobby right now isn't supported by people not paying rent. The people supporting the hobby right now are people more like me. I make great money and found my love of the hobby once again. These purchases are not from people living pat check to pay check.

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by joe73

At minimum, somewhere between 1 and 2 when the COVID-19 money leaves the market. Longer term, 1 or earlier. This isn't a sustainable "hobby" when kids can't meaningfully participate, when veteran collectors do little but complain about the status quo, and when you can't even get your hands on product without camping out at Target or paying scalpers a 30 percent markup online.

You sir, have apparently not been to any large shows in the last 15 years...

[joe73]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

Things are not opening up until next year. We can't even get enough vaccines right now for people over 75 years old. Things could actually take off when people go on vacations. Big card conventions could be designations for vacations and the hobby could continue to grow. ...

You've got to be kidding. Sports card prices will boom even more after people can start going on vacation?

[discodanman45]

Originally Posted by joe73

You've got to be kidding. Sports card prices will boom even more after people can start going on vacation?

IMO things will stay the same for a few years. People won't leave the hobby with thousands of cards at PSA/SGC/BGS. People are making money off of youtube as well. I eventually think that the market will correct itself, but it could be years away. Only time will tell.

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by discodanman45

IMO things will stay the same for a few years. People won't leave the hobby with thousands of cards at PSA/SGC/BGS. People are making money off of youtube as well. I eventually think that the market will correct itself, but it could be years away. Only time will tell.

The YouTube factor is huge. Absolutely huge.

Not that some people are making money on videos, but for the exposure. What's the one thing that's always kind of handicapped the hobby (well, at least since the late 90's)? It wasn't "cool". All these videos and influencers getting into cards is what is driving the prices. As influencers get into sports cards and pokemon cards, it's suddenly a "cool" thing to do.

[Gradek]

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

The YouTube factor is huge. Absolutely huge.

Not that some people are making money on videos, but for the exposure. What's the one thing that's always kind of handicapped the hobby (well, at least since the late 90's)? It wasn't "cool". All these videos and influencers getting into cards is what is driving the prices. As influencers get into sports cards and pokemon cards, it's suddenly a "cool" thing to do.

That’s all well and good, but the barrier to entry into the hobby has gotten obscene over the last year. Unless Topps/Panini do something to make the current year cards more available at actual “retail” (and I include hobby here too) pricing, this upswing isn’t sustainable. It isn’t about “the kids”, but about getting gen z and younger millennials who have lower disposable incomes into the hobby and baseball flagship at $130/box isn’t going to do it.

[PDCCollectibles]

Originally Posted by rngrdanny22

You sir, have apparently not been to any large shows in the last 15 years...

Exactly....I saw more kids over the last 2 years (prior to Covid) at shows than I have in a long time.

[rngrdanny22]

Originally Posted by Gradek

That’s all well and good, but the barrier to entry into the hobby has gotten obscene over the last year. Unless Topps/Panini do something to make the current year cards more available at actual “retail” (and I include hobby here too) pricing, this upswing isn’t sustainable. It isn’t about “the kids”, but about getting gen z and younger millennials who have lower disposable incomes into the hobby and baseball flagship at $130/box isn’t going to do it.

You're completely ignoring the fact that most of these new collectors aren't buying retail wax. I for one don't. Ripping wax a good way to lose money in the hobby (save a rare mega hit), and people typically realize this after a couple boxes. They are scratch-off tickets.

What's really propelling the hobby is group breaks and singles flipping.