2019-20 Panini Chronicles Basketball- Pre-release Thread

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by PSA2Pac

How many drops were there for Mosaic? I never found any so Im completely outta the loop lol

Idk if its true but I thought somebody mentioned in this thread that they were told Walmart was only getting the one stock. Does that even sound right? I would have assumed there would be a few, minimum

Mosaic flowed for 3-4 maybe even 5 weeks where I’m at (at target, Walmart did not restock as many times).

[PSA2Pac]

Originally Posted by BRob1

Mosaic flowed for 3-4 maybe even 5 weeks where I’m at (at target, Walmart did not restock as many times).

word, thanks for the reply brotha

[initialD]

I remember now why this stuff is fun to rip. May not be high value but it sure is loaded! And it’s refreshing to see the RC action shots instead of the recycled poses.
20 cellos 9 hangers 1 blaster
22 Zions - no color
15 Ja - luminance, flux, one Green Prestige
Green Flux Herro
No ink
2 #’d RC’s /145 /149
3 Prizm Update 1 Optic
Gobs of Luka and Bron
Favorite pull

[cowboyzqna]

Man that Gala Zion is a sharp looking piece!


Really like the looks of the silver hometown as well.

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by BRob1

Your whole analysis depends on $10M at retail which could off by a factor of 5 either way. That’s 500k blaster unit equivalents. Seems like a lot.

Factor of 5 either way??? No chance.

I'd say it's anywhere between $5M and $10M. It's quite reasonable to assume that 5,000 retail stores each get $1000 worth of product. Double that for good measure if you'd like. Heck, push it to $15M if you want. Anything higher than that is absurd.

But, my point was really that $10M already feels on the high side .... thus, 941 silvers of each in retail is probably high, substantially so. Anything lower than that is great!

[Payton2Kemp]

I’m sorry if this has already been asked in this thread, but what are the “cards to buy” from chronicles? I’m looking to pick up some singles, but which cards are the ones that will be desirable and hold their value long term?

Any advice helps. That’s everyone!

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by Payton2Kemp

I’m sorry if this has already been asked in this thread, but what are the “cards to buy” from chronicles? I’m looking to pick up some singles, but which cards are the ones that will be desirable and hold their value long term?

Any advice helps. That’s everyone!

Crusade and Phoenix IMO. Gala #/8 as well but you'll have to pony up for those.

[packerfan4200]

Originally Posted by initialD

Lucked out and walked right into the MJ rep for the first time. I’ve never really figured out my store’s schedule as the stocking has always been random it seems. I can usually make out the card section as I walk in and noticed something different. Turned the corner and saw the glorious white boxes on the rollaway. Grabbed a carriage and planted myself first access.

Shot the breeze with the guy, actually knew he did another Walmart nearby from an Optic encounter. Guy was cool and very cordial, asked me what I was looking for and I pointed to the the two displays of Chronicles still wrapped up. He was like “Yup, basketball has been all the craze”. Told me how his previous stop had a gang of people waiting there for him. I let him know that it was pure luck that I ran into him and this will be the last time I ever see any basketball. He told me “Don’t leave! Just wait here while I finish the display and let me take my photo. You’re first and you can have first grabs of whatever you want”.

The next four minutes felt like 10 years lol. I could feel an army of flipperboi’s we’re about to storm the place. I was scanning everybody like I was TSA. We continued to talk and I noticed a Walmart employee was vulturing around bumbling candy bars around us. Anyways, he’s finishes up and unwraps the displays and snaps his pic. Steps aside and I was still the only one there. Started to fill my cart and the old vulturing Walmart lady comes up behind me and says “Oh, I’ve been waiting for these. I haven’t seen them yet”

What?! GTFO here! Grabbed all 20 fatpacks, 9 hangers and 1 blaster. Weird drop, I know, but that’s all there was. And as the lady was saying “he’s taking it all”, I also grabbed 5 Megas of Chrome and bounced.

Now I know why I didn’t get a whiff of Mosaic, got a couple loads of Optic, Prizm was very fortunate to score plenty. 2018 Prizm I felt I was the only one buying it ALL year. It just gets worse everyday, even granny’s in on it. I’ve given up the retail chase. Was just glad to fall into one! Cheers fellas, ripping it all

:heartemoji:

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

Factor of 5 either way??? No chance.

I'd say it's anywhere between $5M and $10M. It's quite reasonable to assume that 5,000 retail stores each get $1000 worth of product. Double that for good measure if you'd like. Heck, push it to $15M if you want. Anything higher than that is absurd.

But, my point was really that $10M already feels on the high side .... thus, 941 silvers of each in retail is probably high, substantially so. Anything lower than that is great!

I’m saying it seems high. My state has roughly 1.2% of the US pop. We’d need to get 6500 blaster unit equivalents to make that math work.

Your method is sound, you’re just starting from a shaky position to underpin the analysis on $10m of retail. Is there any historical to validate that against?

[beavers]

Has anyone seen a bronze Phoenix? Zero on eBay. Only two or three bronze Crusades have been listed.

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by BRob1

I’m saying it seems high. My state has roughly 1.2% of the US pop. We’d need to get 6500 blaster unit equivalents to make that math work.

Your method is sound, you’re just starting from a shaky position to underpin the analysis on $10m of retail. Is there any historical to validate that against?

Ahhhh ... I completely missed your point. Yes, I am basing the $5M number on what I estimated for Prizm retail.

I'm just strictly setting upper boundaries based on what is reasonable. For every Walmart and Target in North America to receive $1000 worth of product would mean about $5M worth. I doubled it just to be crazy safe, but in reality, $5M feels pretty good. That's 496 silvers of each in retail, and say 1000 total (which also makes an assumption about hobby that I think is crazy high).

And man, if that's the UPPER bound? Look out.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

Ahhhh ... I completely missed your point. Yes, I am basing the $5M number on what I estimated for Prizm retail.

I'm just strictly setting upper boundaries based on what is reasonable. For every Walmart and Target in North America to receive $1000 worth of product would mean about $5M worth. I doubled it just to be crazy safe, but in reality, $5M feels pretty good. That's 496 silvers of each in retail, and say 1000 total (which also makes an assumption about hobby that I think is crazy high).

And man, if that's the UPPER bound? Look out.

That makes sense. From what I’ve seen nobody is currently receiving $1k of product in the first week, will need to see how many weeks this goes.

Targets in my area are getting between $50 and $200 worth of product. I’m not sure of the exact tray configuration at Walmart, but most stores seem to be getting four of those. You could do the math there with some research into the exact configuration. It’s definitely more than target, but they need that for several weeks to get to $1k.

I often do this kind of “strat math” in my work, I’d generally express it as a range. On the low end xxx on the high end xxx. Appreciate you putting some numbers against it!

[thefranchise3]

Originally Posted by beavers

Has anyone seen a bronze Phoenix? Zero on eBay. Only two or three bronze Crusades have been listed.

I bought one of the bronze Crusades. Couple things here, I do think these are SSP like last year. Maybe not /5, but definitely very low. I think all the colored chrome parallels are < /100. Haven't been able to figure out what's the most rare besides bronze. Also can't tell on silvers at the moment either, but they seem to be slightly more than the parallels despite a ton of Flux cards incorrectly listed as silver.

Another is that we're getting a lot of new people in the hobby listing cards for sale. I'm fairly certain I've seen some bronze be listed as silvers as well as regular base. I've picked up a few steals.

[calculusdork]

Originally Posted by BRob1

That makes sense. From what I’ve seen nobody is currently receiving $1k of product in the first week, will need to see how many weeks this goes.

Targets in my area are getting between $50 and $200 worth of product. I’m not sure of the exact tray configuration at Walmart, but most stores seem to be getting four of those. You could do the math there with some research into the exact configuration. It’s definitely more than target, but they need that for several weeks to get to $1k.

I often do this kind of “strat math” in my work, I’d generally express it as a range. On the low end xxx on the high end xxx. Appreciate you putting some numbers against it!

Yep, a range would have been a better approach for sure ... but it's late and there's whiskey involved

[RadicalAlmond]

Remember when people were buying Morants for like $400 I wonder how many returns there will be haha

[Retail Fool]

Originally Posted by BRob1

That makes sense. From what I’ve seen nobody is currently receiving $1k of product in the first week, will need to see how many weeks this goes.

The first week of the WM nearest to me (and this is a small city / town compared to other major areas) i would say received at least $800 worth of Chronicles. And that was two trays of blasters, two rows of hangers, and two rows of cellos.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by Retail Fool

The first week of the WM nearest to me (and this is a small city / town compared to other major areas) i would say received at least $800 worth of Chronicles. And that was two trays of blasters, two rows of hangers, and two rows of cellos.

What is the exact tray configuration?

[Retail Fool]

Originally Posted by BRob1

What is the exact tray configuration?

IIRC it was 9 blasters in a tray, with some on top if there were more than 9.

Man, for sure more than 10 cellos in a row but didn't really pay attention to how many exactly. Hangers were maybe around 8-10 in a row. Maybe pics in the thread can help but definitely around those numbers.

[BRob1]

Originally Posted by Retail Fool

IIRC it was 9 blasters in a tray, with some on top if there were more than 9.

Man, for sure more than 10 cellos in a row but didn't really pay attention to how many exactly. Hangers were maybe around 8-10 in a row. Maybe pics in the thread can help but definitely around those numbers.

Ok in that case Walmart’s could be around $1000. I saw the rep at 4 targets this week on the other hand and one had zero, one had 4 hangers, one had about 3-4 blasters and 2 hangers, one had 1 mega, 4-6 blasters, 4-6 hangers and maybe 7-8 cello packs. Hoping targets in my area are bigger next week. I haven’t heard much about people finding huge hauls at target this week, just Walmart.

[YeahBuddy]

got to my store as she was there, she said someone stole all her NBA in the back room.

I'm guessing an employee took out and hid in back room only to buy later...

[dortonwildcat5]

Originally Posted by BRob1

What is the exact tray configuration?

24 blasters (12 per I think)
18 hangers (9 on one side with fat packs on the other)
40 fat packs (20 on one side with hangers on the other)

[packfan15412]

I was skeptical at first... but from what I pulled after even paying cheap secondary prices... this stuff is definitely fire!!!!

[lseecon]

Hobby boxes selling for low $800s..Anyone who bought direct from Panini is under water. Of course that can always change. But buying at $900 or whatever the price was, was clearly a big hurdle to overcome given the price of retail and the fact that hobby boxes were selling for $400 to $600 a few weeks prior for pre-sale.
I would still rather have 3-4 retail mega boxes over one hobby box.

[greg8731]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

Crusade and Phoenix IMO. Gala #/8 as well but you'll have to pony up for those.

I'm a big fan of last year's Phoenix and Crusade. This year they're nice but not as good imo. I did pick up a Ja Morant teal Phoenix that's really nice. Will prob try to get some other colors as well.

[TimBuckTwo]

Originally Posted by calculusdork

Ahhhh ... I completely missed your point. Yes, I am basing the $5M number on what I estimated for Prizm retail.

I'm just strictly setting upper boundaries based on what is reasonable. For every Walmart and Target in North America to receive $1000 worth of product would mean about $5M worth. I doubled it just to be crazy safe, but in reality, $5M feels pretty good. That's 496 silvers of each in retail, and say 1000 total (which also makes an assumption about hobby that I think is crazy high).

And man, if that's the UPPER bound? Look out.

Look out for what exactly?
High prices? Short supply?