Potential Worth of Soccer Cards as Market Grows

[Ianhatcher]

Originally Posted by Ray V

The issue with soccer is the collecting pool is a fraction of the Big 4 sports which are so much more popular than soccer in the US where the majority of the collecting pool is.

You left out the part where soccer cards were used as packing materials by sellers until the pandemic hit and soccer took off. Or the part where 2018 WC Prizm boxes were selling for $36 on Boxing Day 2019.

You can't see the bubble when you're inside the bubble.

Unfortunately for soccer, the modern hobby is built on:
- Messi, Ronaldo, Mbappe, & Haaland (and Messi/Ronaldo trains are slowing down)
- The crop of rookies which seems to get worse every year
- The latest USA hope, whether in MLS or elsewhere
- Breakers and other speculators that are leaving soccer in droves

Here's hoping the WC turns things around later this year.

People have used Action Comics #1 as a packing material for house insulation. Look at the 1952 Baseball cards that they dumped in the ocean in 1960 that nobody wanted but people I bet would kill for now.

I guess that is where I differ from most people here then, I don't need a huge amount of collectors for me to enjoy the hobby and I really don't care about a bubble either. I'll still enjoy a card if it's worth $20k today and then $1k tomorrow. I don't need to sell cards to afford cards in this hobby but I do it for fun and the tax breaks.

I don't really care if the WC turns things around or not either but I do know I don't want it to turn into 2021 again where box prices were crazy high and people like my nephew couldn't even afford to buy a box of cards. This is the first time since 2019 he was able to buy himself a box of Chrome UEFA. I view that as a positive for the hobby and he didn't need to sell half the box to be able to justify the purchase either.

[KhalDrogo]

$225 for a hobby box of UEFA Chrome is still around double what is reasonable IMO. Last Messi gold did less than that. Did have a small surface scratch, but still looked like a 9.

[mfw13]

Let's see if there is a World Cup product released at <$100/box.....

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by k13

Do Peru/Costa Rica/Hungary/etc. teams still sell or that already gone too....??

I honestly have no idea. I haven't heard much from people buying...but a lot of the market where middle class collectors and things are getting tight.

On the other hand, there hasn't been a lot of supply lately and pretty much every collector has gotten what they want. I'm still missing a couple of Red Mosaics but that's it. Most of the big cards are in hands of collectors and they aren't leaving them.

[mfw13]

Originally Posted by Ray V

The issue with soccer is the collecting pool is a fraction of the Big 4 sports which are so much more popular than soccer in the US where the majority of the collecting pool is.

You also have the fact that a huge percentage of soccer fans live in countries where there it no tradition of collecting stickers/cards and where people simply cannot afford to collect stickers/cards (especially at current prices).

Most collectors are in Europe, North America, and the wealthier Asian nations (China/Japan/S.Korea/Singapore). Soccer fans are everywhere.....

[sportsyard]

Originally Posted by BiggNuttz

In this post, I would like to give my view of the soccer card market for the next 6~12 months. I will try to be as specific as possible and cite specific cards and prices as of today, the 27th May 2022.

For the most part, I disagree with almost everyone on Blowout who is screaming recession and tanking card prices. I believe that although by the technical definition the U.S. and the U.K. may have a recession, I think it will be quite mild and quite short lived. Overall, I believe that soccer card prices right now are close to, if not at their bottom. The correction has already happened in my eyes. A large portion of the market is down 50%~75% from the April 2021 highs. I believe that certain cards and areas of the market can see 25%~50% growth in prices from where things are right now in the next 6~12 months. I believe that the World Cup is going to have a tremendous impact on the market, but not like many would suggest. I expect that the World Cup will grow the collector base into many countries and areas that so far have not had a strong base. It is not going to have a dramatic impact on prices in the near term. What it will do is add a new layer of collectors who will slowly build collections, maybe starting with sticker books, but quickly advancing to cards and on to veteran players and sets. These new collectors will place a new floor on many of the iconic cards, sets, and players as they start to build out collections.

As far as my specific areas of focus, I will list out exact cards and sets I am actively buying and a couple of things I am actively avoiding. In no specific order:

2014 Panini Prizm World Cup sealed boxes and PSA 10 graded parallels of star players. Sealed boxes have been selling for $4,600~$4,800 recently, and these are ridiculously underpriced in my opinion. With the value of the low numbered gold parallels, and many of the other cards, these boxes look to be undervalued by 50% easily. There are also just not that many around. A theme that I see recurring again and again, is that people are so focused on chasing the newest, shiniest sets, that they ignore the relative value on a lot of these older cards. I am also chasing singles such as Messi Yellow and Red Pulsar PSA 10 (sold for $912 at Goldin on the 2nd May 2022) and other similar cards.

2018 Panini Prizm World Cup sealed boxes and PSA 10 graded parallels of star players. The same reasoning as above, with a bit less upside as likely more printed and being the second Prizm World Cup set.

2004 Megacracks Messi in BGS 9.5 or PSA 8~9. A BGS 9.5 with 10/9.5/9/9.5 subgrades just sold on ALT for $26,116. This card is one of the key soccer cards, and tough to find in higher grades. I doubt that there are many raw, higher grade copies still left ungraded. An absolute steal right now for one of the cornerstone cards in the soccer card hobby.

2006 Panini World Cup Messi and Ronaldo PSA 10. Other foil star players in PSA 10. These cards have seen a MASSIVE drop form the April 2021 highs, where a pair of Messi PSA 10's sold for $30,000. The last PSA 10 Messi sold on Goldin 12th April 2022 for $2,640. That is a drop of 88% from the highs. The market got far too exuberant on the upside, and the market is much too pessimistic on the downside. These cards could see some very nice upside of at least 50%~100% if not more. Still only an 8.5% Gem rate and PSA is not getting any easier in grading these.

2017/18, 2018/19, 2019/20 Topps Chrome UEFA Gold/Orange/Red star singles graded PSA 9/10. In my personal opinion, the 2017/18 set will only continue to grow in popularity over time. The manner in which Topps made the coloured parallels fill the entire background makes them stand out relative to all of the other sets. 2018/19 is also very nice, and by 2019/20 they had lost a lot of the colour, but production was still low, relatively speaking. Any star players such as Messi, Ronaldo, Lewandowski, Mbappe, Haaland. A few price points as follows. 2017/18 Gold PSA 10 Mbappe sold on ALT for $34,002, 2017/18 Gold Messi BGS 9.5 with 9.5/10/9.5/9 subgrades sold on ALT for $8,000, 2017/18 Pulisic Gold PSA 10 sold for $2,425 Ebay, 2017/18 Modric Red PSA 9 sold for $1,375 Ebay.

High grade PSA Panini/Sega WCCF cards. This is one of my largest areas of collecting, and one that I think has the possibility for strong growth, especially for collectors who are unwilling or unable to spend thousands for single cards. The key for these cards is to obtain them in high grade, PSA 9 or preferably, PSA 10. These cards were all produced with full black backs, which are very susceptible to chipping and showing white, especially on the corners. I would compare these to Topps 1971 baseball, where high grade cards bring exorbitant, but deserved premiums for the condition rarity. Produced for 20 years from 2001 to 2021-22, they are many True Rookies and early cards for Messi and Ronaldo. I am well aware that many are not fans of gaming type cards, but given the long history, the players and the wide variety of teams, it is a fun and potentially great place to collect on a low budget.

Cards and sets I would avoid would be pretty much anything post 2020-21 and anything from the current year 2021-22. This includes any rookies and prospects as well. Quite simply, there are too many products, across too many sets, with too many parallels. I have a hard time imagining how values could increase significantly for even the best of prospects with the number of cards they will each have both base and parallels. We will obviously be getting World Cups set(s) from Panini later this year (hopefully). I am on the fence about these, but have the same feeling that they will be overprinted, with an explosion in the number of parallels. I will reserve judgement until we get a full checklist and also some idea if Panini will stick to Prizm only, or if they might try to expand World Cup issues to other sets like Obsidian etc.

Regards

solid post. The Megacracks 71 in high grade would easily be one of my top 5 picks for the next 10 years

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by Ray V

The issue with soccer is the collecting pool is a fraction of the Big 4 sports which are so much more popular than soccer in the US where the majority of the collecting pool is.

You left out the part where soccer cards were used as packing materials by sellers until the pandemic hit and soccer took off. Or the part where 2018 WC Prizm boxes were selling for $36 on Boxing Day 2019.

You can't see the bubble when you're inside the bubble.

Unfortunately for soccer, the modern hobby is built on:
- Messi, Ronaldo, Mbappe, & Haaland (and Messi/Ronaldo trains are slowing down)
- The crop of rookies which seems to get worse every year
- The latest USA hope, whether in MLS or elsewhere
- Breakers and other speculators that are leaving soccer in droves

Here's hoping the WC turns things around later this year.

Are you talking Hobby boxes or Fat Pack boxes? I don't remember Hobby ever being less than 90 (or even 100).

[k13]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

Are you talking Hobby boxes or Fat Pack boxes? I don't remember Hobby ever being less than 90 (or even 100).

I don't either.

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by mfw13

You also have the fact that a huge percentage of soccer fans live in countries where there it no tradition of collecting stickers/cards and where people simply cannot afford to collect stickers/cards (especially at current prices).

Most collectors are in Europe, North America, and the wealthier Asian nations (China/Japan/S.Korea/Singapore). Soccer fans are everywhere.....

This is such a huge untapped market and whoever finds a way to get into it will win the soccer market IMO

Get a cheap paper set for the WC (like Flagship Topps) and sell it by regions (like the World Cup stickers). 24 packs per box, $2 per pack. 1 insert per pack, 1 parallel per box. Maybe like 1 auto per case. Sell binders to store them with the WC logo too.

Low end releases marketed right can have success in those areas and can expand the market more than any other high or mid end release can right now.

[mcwildcats]

Where are we at on the 2017 Select hangers with Mbappe rookies? Seeing a potentially good deal on these. Is under $90 to buy and hold a decent play?

[fadster]

Worth mentioning there are a lot of big collectors in South America too, both vintage and modern.

Big news today is that Ludkins UK has become PSA UK. For now it will act as a forwarding base but their plan is that they set up an full HQ with graders here too. Having a Eurpoean PSA hub should be a real positive for the hobby going forward.

[netmasters]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

I honestly have no idea. I haven't heard much from people buying...but a lot of the market where middle class collectors and things are getting tight.

There is this idea that the economic conditions have cause this dry up but I don't think that is entirely true. Yes it certainly hurts but I think the bigger issue is that boxes are now priced at release where there is little to no chance to flip and make money. If those products do come along they sell out almost immediately. Look at Museum for example. People thought they were going to be able to resell for $450+. Even in this down economy people found plenty of money for them. If they didn't think the would be able to resell they would still be sitting on Topps. The market is driven by the ability to make easy money and Topps and Panini along with graders put an end to that.

The other issue is certainly upped production. It has killed the singles value and base being essentially worthless makes opening a much bigger risk. Base is what carried the pre 2020 products to super high levels. If a base PSA 10 Haaland was selling for about what a box was selling for and you knew you had a better than 50% chance of hitting it then those odds aren't all that bad as far as opening boxes are concerned. Now that base prices have come down the boxes have come with it. Now you are relying on a few refractors and an auto which both come out of a bigger checklist.

[mfw13]

There are still set-builders out there like me for whom singles have value.

What has devalued singles has been the endless parallels, as well as the numerous products being released with similar checklists.

There might be demand for 3-5 base singles of a star player in a year.....but that player is going to have 20+ base cards each year + parallels.

[WHyFLy]

Don't really post much, but I have been buying quite a lot lately. Do I believe the market is dead, absolutely not. Do I believe that the market will be rising in prices soon, highly-doubtful. I do believe though we are seeing what prices "should" have been all this time. The market has corrected and is still in the process of correcting, which is why we see that 70% drop since April 2021 and 20-30% drop since April 2022. I think the era of rookies skyrocketing or high-dollar base/refractor slabs is no more.

The reasoning so many are "tight" right now is because they bought into it at all-time highs. Collectors saw markets going up and bought with the fear they may never get it again. I mean from trying to buy collections/singles on facebook, instagram, myslabs, etc. Most these "sellers" are asking 100%+ on comps because they either are

1) Unaware of whats going on and clueless
2) Way to high in their prices and are stuck with Messi Refractors from 2017 that they paid over $1000 for, etc.

You have to be selective in what you buy now, but the key items, on-card legends, iconic sets, those will be deemed "recession" proof.

[k13]

They are still paying $1000 + for Messi refractors....

[yiguiri2002]

Originally Posted by netmasters

There is this idea that the economic conditions have cause this dry up but I don't think that is entirely true. Yes it certainly hurts but I think the bigger issue is that boxes are now priced at release where there is little to no chance to flip and make money. If those products do come along they sell out almost immediately. Look at Museum for example. People thought they were going to be able to resell for $450+. Even in this down economy people found plenty of money for them. If they didn't think the would be able to resell they would still be sitting on Topps. The market is driven by the ability to make easy money and Topps and Panini along with graders put an end to that.

The other issue is certainly upped production. It has killed the singles value and base being essentially worthless makes opening a much bigger risk. Base is what carried the pre 2020 products to super high levels. If a base PSA 10 Haaland was selling for about what a box was selling for and you knew you had a better than 50% chance of hitting it then those odds aren't all that bad as far as opening boxes are concerned. Now that base prices have come down the boxes have come with it. Now you are relying on a few refractors and an auto which both come out of a bigger checklist.

To be fair, his question was about collectors in South America. Middle class income is completely different than in the US or Europe.

[k13]

The population of prizm silvers in basketball for top players is 35x more than in soccer yet prices are 10% less in most cases.

So we are looking at 350x less demand in soccer comparatively speaking.

Silver prizm of non-rookies in hockey are now selling higher than soccer and people hate prizm and hate non-rookie stuff in hockey.

When a top 3 player in the world sells for $150 in psa 10 silver with a pop of 40 from a unique set and his first Euro/World Cup prizm non-base shows you how small the soccer market really is.

[YayNJ]

There's more demand / chatter and genuine excitement for MLS cards than there is anything else (outside of the overhyped rookies). I feel like the hobby has been drunk for the past two-three years. Bigging up average to above average players into the next Pele without really understanding levels, the difference in divisions or actual potential - see Jadon Sancho, Xavi Simons, and most recently Sidney Raeberger as prime examples.

Contrary to what some people think, I honestly feel like the market is actually weaker now than it was during Covid, and by a long distance. Plenty (I'm going to stick my neckout) if not most box sales and single sales were and will have been made by soccer tourists, buying up anything and everything in a scatter gun hope for the best "i'm going to get rich" fashion.

If you actually speak to newer people that have entered, they already feel jaded. It's a grind. It's not much fun, expensive and the returns are absolutely minimal.

It's going to be very, very hard to attract and keep hardcore collectors, especially in Europe.

[Ray V]

Originally Posted by yiguiri2002

Are you talking Hobby boxes or Fat Pack boxes? I don't remember Hobby ever being less than 90 (or even 100).

Originally Posted by k13

I don't either.

Fat Pack boxes for $36. Also picked up 2018/19 Donruss Blasters for $10 and 2017/18 Panini Select for $8. Dave & Adams in Buffalo, Boxing Day 2019.

[Raj3sh]

Originally Posted by mcwildcats

Where are we at on the 2017 Select hangers with Mbappe rookies? Seeing a potentially good deal on these. Is under $90 to buy and hold a decent play?

i think the hanger is a retail one and it only has the red checkerboard parallel. along with its horizontal base card.

[YayNJ]

I mean, the red checkerboard is still selling for $500-$700 for a mint copy. Chances of you finding Mbappe though is slim. It can't hurt holding a few.

Having bought these when they first came out, $90 still makes me wince a bit though

[BiggNuttz]

Originally Posted by YayNJ

There's more demand / chatter and genuine excitement for MLS cards than there is anything else (outside of the overhyped rookies). I feel like the hobby has been drunk for the past two-three years. Bigging up average to above average players into the next Pele without really understanding levels, the difference in divisions or actual potential - see Jadon Sancho, Xavi Simons, and most recently Sidney Raeberger as prime examples.

Contrary to what some people think, I honestly feel like the market is actually weaker now than it was during Covid, and by a long distance. Plenty (I'm going to stick my neckout) if not most box sales and single sales were and will have been made by soccer tourists, buying up anything and everything in a scatter gun hope for the best "i'm going to get rich" fashion.

If you actually speak to newer people that have entered, they already feel jaded. It's a grind. It's not much fun, expensive and the returns are absolutely minimal.

It's going to be very, very hard to attract and keep hardcore collectors, especially in Europe.

I am going to strongly agree and disagree with the above simultaneously!

First of all, what are all of these people expecting, and how are they approaching the "hobby"? Are they:

A) Collectors/hobbyists
B) Investors
C) Prospectors
D) Some hybrid, combination of the above

The prospecting part of the hobby, is just another way that people participate, and is in a world of its own. If you think $15,000 for a Raebiger Superfractor is expensive, then you so not follow the Bowman Chrome Auto prospect market on the baseball side. Compared to that market, $15,000 is a steal, when people are paying $50,000+ for a prospect that may never play a game in the Major Leagues.

I do not feel that the market is weaker, but that is just my opinion. People throwing money away on boxes is, once again, just another part of the hobby.

If new people are feeling jaded and like it is a grind and not fun, what are they doing? It is a hobby. It is something you do to relax and relieve stress, not add to it. If you are talking about "returns" then they are more investors, not collectors. Again, nothing wrong with that, but then investing does come with stress.

Finally, I will repeat the same thing that I have said before. I think that the World Cup is all about expanding the collector base, and introducing more people to the card side. This kind of growth is slow. People may not have as much disposable income, but if they study and understand the market carefully and make wise purchases, not just "scatter gun hope", then the soccer card collecting market is in very good shape going forward in my opinion.

Regards

[fadster]

Yeah I agree on some points. Prospecting and ultra modern flipping is suffering with box prices, jumps in pr and a dose of reality on some youngsters. However the organic collecting hobby is still growing steadily, quality players and releases that collectors want are holding up much better. I see that sort of thing as the roots of the hobby and they continue to grow, the flipping, the prospecting as the leaves and fruit that come and go with the seasons (yes I was watering the garden last night lol).

[gomiamigo]

The number of new products and print runs are going to kill off the majority of any 'investor base.' That's the problem, WC year or nah.

Not taking about Messi Megacracks RCs or Flawless soccer that will always have appeal.

No, no WC product this year will be under $100 at retail. Hope I'm wrong.

[SoccerRCs]

Mbappe WC Gold Prizm in PSA 10 goes up at Heritage later this month. Should be wild.

https://sports.ha.com/itm/2018-panin...ription-071515

Actually, think I'll make a thread.