Ceiling for Trout and Bryant RCs? - Page 15

ThoseBackPages · 03-15-2017, 01:29 PM

hard to compare NBA and MLB imo

ThoseBackPages · 03-15-2017, 01:30 PM

to further a point, when is Tom Brady RC stuff going to flop?

jasonm2121 · 03-15-2017, 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

to further a point, when is Tom Brady RC stuff going to flop?

never.

bmp8878 · 03-15-2017, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kyle1707

But thats the point.. Twists a knee.. Cubs have bad year... Hits 260 with 24 hrs

stuff will eventually drop.. So much of his stuff doubled in off season when he was not even playing

Hes 25 years old with 330 hits and 65 home runs...

Everything comes back down.. Bryant has singed more then anyone in the history of the hobby in his first 2 years...

Does not matter if he is now a chicago icon...

these prices are so out of whack... IMO

Curry is the perfect example

Great post.

ThoseBackPages · 03-15-2017, 01:38 PM

i think a lot of folks are underestimating the cubs fanbase. they seem to be the "new yankees". Seeing lots of folks NOT in chicago (the area) wearing cubs hats, clothing, etc. Now that they've won, i'd expect to see more

Boo · 03-15-2017, 01:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

to further a point, when is Tom Brady RC stuff going to flop?

Yes. See Jordan, Michael

jasonm2121 · 03-15-2017, 01:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boo

Yes. See Jordan, Michael

There will obviously be ebb and flow, but overall, there are few to no modern players that have his resume and following. On top of that, most of his RCs are near impossible in Top Grades (Chrome and SP are the exception and even they are high). I do feel they need to and will level off, there are so many of them. But overall, he will be the top player collected in the sport, similar to Jordan. Most football collectors do not spend as much as basketball or baseball, but for those who do, they do and will look to Brady as their choice, on top of the base fans, such as myself.

bmp8878 · 03-15-2017, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

hard to compare NBA and MLB imo

I do agree with you here. Using Lebron as an example is not apples to apples. I guess my overall point is that if trout continues to put up incredible stats for some time and doesn't win a championship, do his prices begin to drop heavy on his super highend stuff over time, or stay flat? Or do they continue to increase like we have seen with some athletes due to all the personal accomplishments? I have no idea and there is a bunch of what ifs

seabass97166 · 03-15-2017, 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kyle1707

But thats the point.. Twists a knee.. Cubs have bad year... Hits 260 with 24 hrs

stuff will eventually drop.. So much of his stuff doubled in off season when he was not even playing

Hes 25 years old with 330 hits and 65 home runs...

Everything comes back down.. Bryant has singed more then anyone in the history of the hobby in his first 2 years...

Does not matter if he is now a chicago icon...

these prices are so out of whack... IMO

Curry is the perfect example

Seager has a back injury right now, injuries happen all the time.
So do slumps and "average" years.

SELL!!

mfw13 · 03-15-2017, 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kyle1707

But thats the point.. Twists a knee.. Cubs have bad year... Hits 260 with 24 hrs

stuff will eventually drop.. So much of his stuff doubled in off season when he was not even playing

Hes 25 years old with 330 hits and 65 home runs...

Everything comes back down.. Bryant has singed more then anyone in the history of the hobby in his first 2 years...

Does not matter if he is now a chicago icon...

these prices are so out of whack... IMO

Curry is the perfect example

Agreed.

But I think there's another factor that not too many people have mentioned.....shilling.

These days it's hard to figure out what is a "legit" data point because there is so much shilling going on. I don't know what percentage of the recent price rises in the cards of hot players like Bryant and Trout is due to shilling, but I don't think too many people would disagree that it has been a factor in boosting prices.

ThoseBackPages · 03-15-2017, 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bmp8878

I do agree with you here. Using Lebron as an example is not apples to apples. I guess my overall point is that if trout continues to put up incredible stats for some time and doesn't win a championship, do his prices begin to drop heavy on his super highend stuff over time, or stay flat? Or do they continue to increase like we have seen with some athletes due to all the personal accomplishments? I have no idea and there is a bunch of what ifs

Very true.

id also like to add that "Joe Blow" baseball fan knows LeBron, but may not know Curry. i know that Curry's base topps is easy to compare to Trout's, but i think the comparisons stop there. "well, look how low Currys Topps RC is now" is all fine and dandy, but the fact is that Trout's Flagship RC is a lot more popular due to the nature of baseball in this country.

ThoseBackPages · 03-15-2017, 01:56 PM

i'd also like to add with the....

"well KB is 25 and only has done such and such"

i TOTALLY get that, i do. Hell, for 45 of my 46 years on this planet, i agreed with that. But that is all changing now.

Look at David Ortiz. People want him to keep playing. he had a great statisticall year last year. Plays for a POPULAR franchise.

jasonm2121 · 03-15-2017, 01:59 PM

Curry is a bad example, he was super hype and people now see he is not a full franchise player like they thought. Very good player, but he is a shooter mostly, not a complete player like LeBron or MJ. Bryant is on a sound team with amazing upside and is the face of it, he also takes care of himself and wants to be better all the time, like Brady.

Drdduet · 03-15-2017, 02:05 PM

I think that the recent momentum in cards prices like the 2011 topps update Trout are due in large part to a healthy hobby base. Market prices are determined by supply and demand. So as long as there are collectors, investors, and flippers creating demand for the cards of the current superstars of sport, then these prices will have an upward slope over time. The current boom of Trout, Brady, and Lebron RC's are a testament to a healthy hobby base, and as long as these guys are performing at their perspective levels in their sport, the money will follow them. If these guys falter, then the money will go to the next guy up who has GOAT potential.

More people buying cards = more money spent on cards = higher prices for key cards of the best of the best

Ferg1945 · 03-15-2017, 02:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

i think a lot of folks are underestimating the cubs fanbase. they seem to be the "new yankees". Seeing lots of folks NOT in chicago (the area) wearing cubs hats, clothing, etc. Now that they've won, i'd expect to see more

Cubs fans FINALLY have something to celebrate and a nice young core to boot. Rizzo, Baez, Hendricks, Bryant, Russell, Contreras.

Bryant... ROY... MVP... WS Champion that snapped a 108 year drought.... all the stars have aligned and he seems to be THE Cub that the fan base is getting behind.

Sometimes I think Bryant is just toying with the league....

2015.. 26 HRs 99 RBIs .275 199Ks Finishes the season with 99 RBIs... no RBIs the last 6 games

2016.. 39 HRs 102 RBIs .292 154 Ks Surpasses 100 RBIs... but finishes the season with 39 HRs and just shy of a .300 AVG

What will he do in 2017?

palmetto7 · 03-15-2017, 02:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ferg1945

Cubs fans FINALLY have something to celebrate and a nice young core to boot. Rizzo, Baez, Hendricks, Bryant, Russell, Contreras.

Bryant... ROY... MVP... WS Champion that snapped a 108 year drought.... all the stars have aligned and he seems to be THE Cub that the fan base is getting behind.

Sometimes I think Bryant is just toying with the league....

2015.. 26 HRs 99 RBIs .275 199Ks Finishes the season with 99 RBIs... no RBIs the last 6 games

2016.. 39 HRs 102 RBIs .292 154 Ks Surpasses 100 RBIs... but finishes the season with 39 HRs and just shy of a .300 AVG

What will he do in 2017?

50 homer season coming up soon

jasonm2121 · 03-15-2017, 02:29 PM

He can still have a very good 15 seasons plus. He just has a good head on his shoulders, overall he can be he face of the league for a decade. Having an It factor is big, esp when it comes to collectors.

WillBBC · 03-15-2017, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jasonm2121

He can still have a very good 15 seasons plus. He just has a good head on his shoulders, overall he can be he face of the league for a decade. Having an It factor is big, esp when it comes to collectors.

He's also the only guy my wife stops and goes, 'who's that?' whenever he's batting. Good lookin' dude!

mfw13 · 03-15-2017, 02:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Drdduet

So as long as there are collectors, investors, and flippers creating demand for the cards of the current superstars of sport, then these prices will have an upward slope over time.

But demand from flippers is not "true" demand. It's very short-term demand based on the presence of rising prices, and will disappear the second prices stop rising.

Or to frame the issue another way, how many people who are buying Bryant/Trout cards right now would still be doing so if you told them that the price would not change by a single penny for the next 100 years?

That's the difference between speculative demand (demand predicated on the potential for future profit), and true demand (demand from people who actually want the card for their collections).

ridgerider · 03-15-2017, 02:52 PM

It seems more people buy speculatively, especially since ebay and paypal make it so easy to return items 60-90 days later after a buyer realizes the market froze.

Drdduet · 03-15-2017, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mfw13

But demand from flippers is not "true" demand. It's very short-term demand based on the presence of rising prices, and will disappear the second prices stop rising.

Or to frame the issue another way, how many people who are buying Bryant/Trout cards right now would still be doing so if you told them that the price would not change by a single penny for the next 100 years?

That's the difference between speculative demand (demand predicated on the potential for future profit), and true demand (demand from people who actually want the card for their collections).

Disagree as demand is not a constant. Just as in stocks, it's the basic economic principle that determines a market. What you speak of is a "bubble", demand is necessary for that bubble to form, then it's the lack of it that makes it pop.

ThoseBackPages · 03-15-2017, 03:19 PM

Also, these guys only have a limited amount of Rookie Cards. Yea, some of them have large print runs. So when some say KB signs all the time. Yea, thats all good, but he's not signing 2015 cards to be issued in 2015 packs any longer.

jasonm2121 · 03-15-2017, 03:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThoseBackPages

Also, these guys only have a limited amount of Rookie Cards. Yea, some of them have large print runs. So when some say KB signs all the time. Yea, thats all good, but he's not signing 2015 cards to be issued in 2015 packs any longer.

Agree, the idea that some are signed is just icing on the cake. Look how much high graded RCs of previous top players go for, most were not autographed, I do not think it matters too much how much a player signs in this discussion. A rare RC Refractor PSA 10 is what it is, an incredible card.

deemsterz33 · 03-15-2017, 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kyle1707

But thats the point.. Twists a knee.. Cubs have bad year... Hits 260 with 24 hrs

stuff will eventually drop.. So much of his stuff doubled in off season when he was not even playing

Hes 25 years old with 330 hits and 65 home runs...

Everything comes back down.. Bryant has singed more then anyone in the history of the hobby in his first 2 years...

Does not matter if he is now a chicago icon...

these prices are so out of whack... IMO

Curry is the perfect example

Sure that's one way to look at it.

Or he hits 40-50 HRs, wins another MVP, and makes it back to the WS next year. He continues to play at an MVP level through his prime and cements his legacy as a Chicago icon. At this point that is certainly a possibility.

You think the prices are out of whack. There are thousands of people spending lots of coin who clearly disagree with you.

jasonm2121 · 03-15-2017, 04:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WillBBC

He's also the only guy my wife stops and goes, 'who's that?' whenever he's batting. Good lookin' dude!

hahahaha, also a factor, in T shirt jersey sales at least

03-15-2017, 01:29 PM	#351
ThoseBackPages Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Long Island Posts: 89,252 ThoseBackPages	hard to compare NBA and MLB imo __________________ Pumpers Paradise #YouCryIBuy Four things that we cannot change each others minds about: Politics, Religion, Third Party Grading, and 2021 Bowman's Best Rookie Cards

03-15-2017, 01:30 PM	#352
ThoseBackPages Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Long Island Posts: 89,252 ThoseBackPages	to further a point, when is Tom Brady RC stuff going to flop? __________________ Pumpers Paradise #YouCryIBuy Four things that we cannot change each others minds about: Politics, Religion, Third Party Grading, and 2021 Bowman's Best Rookie Cards

03-15-2017, 01:38 PM	#355
ThoseBackPages Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Long Island Posts: 89,252 ThoseBackPages	i think a lot of folks are underestimating the cubs fanbase. they seem to be the "new yankees". Seeing lots of folks NOT in chicago (the area) wearing cubs hats, clothing, etc. Now that they've won, i'd expect to see more __________________ Pumpers Paradise #YouCryIBuy Four things that we cannot change each others minds about: Politics, Religion, Third Party Grading, and 2021 Bowman's Best Rookie Cards

03-15-2017, 01:56 PM	#362
ThoseBackPages Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Long Island Posts: 89,252 ThoseBackPages	i'd also like to add with the.... "well KB is 25 and only has done such and such" i TOTALLY get that, i do. Hell, for 45 of my 46 years on this planet, i agreed with that. But that is all changing now. Look at David Ortiz. People want him to keep playing. he had a great statisticall year last year. Plays for a POPULAR franchise. __________________ Pumpers Paradise #YouCryIBuy Four things that we cannot change each others minds about: Politics, Religion, Third Party Grading, and 2021 Bowman's Best Rookie Cards

03-15-2017, 03:19 PM	#372
ThoseBackPages Member Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: Long Island Posts: 89,252 ThoseBackPages	Also, these guys only have a limited amount of Rookie Cards. Yea, some of them have large print runs. So when some say KB signs all the time. Yea, thats all good, but he's not signing 2015 cards to be issued in 2015 packs any longer. __________________ Pumpers Paradise #YouCryIBuy Four things that we cannot change each others minds about: Politics, Religion, Third Party Grading, and 2021 Bowman's Best Rookie Cards

03-15-2017, 01:59 PM	#363
jasonm2121 Member Join Date: Apr 2015 Location: GOAT City Posts: 11,997	Curry is a bad example, he was super hype and people now see he is not a full franchise player like they thought. Very good player, but he is a shooter mostly, not a complete player like LeBron or MJ. Bryant is on a sound team with amazing upside and is the face of it, he also takes care of himself and wants to be better all the time, like Brady.

03-15-2017, 02:05 PM	#364
Drdduet Member Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,706	I think that the recent momentum in cards prices like the 2011 topps update Trout are due in large part to a healthy hobby base. Market prices are determined by supply and demand. So as long as there are collectors, investors, and flippers creating demand for the cards of the current superstars of sport, then these prices will have an upward slope over time. The current boom of Trout, Brady, and Lebron RC's are a testament to a healthy hobby base, and as long as these guys are performing at their perspective levels in their sport, the money will follow them. If these guys falter, then the money will go to the next guy up who has GOAT potential. More people buying cards = more money spent on cards = higher prices for key cards of the best of the best

03-15-2017, 02:29 PM	#367
jasonm2121 Member Join Date: Apr 2015 Location: GOAT City Posts: 11,997	He can still have a very good 15 seasons plus. He just has a good head on his shoulders, overall he can be he face of the league for a decade. Having an It factor is big, esp when it comes to collectors.

03-15-2017, 02:52 PM	#370
ridgerider Member Join Date: Nov 2012 Location: West Virginia Posts: 944 furtherjohn	It seems more people buy speculatively, especially since ebay and paypal make it so easy to return items 60-90 days later after a buyer realizes the market froze.